Quotes and rates for precious metals Gold vs US Dollar (XAUUSD)

As the market pushed out US rate cut expectations, Gold (XAU/USD) fell 2% YTD, from a high of $2,135 in December 2023. Economists at ANZ Bank analyze the yellow metal’s outlook.

Gold to keep shining

• Gold price attracts some buyers around $2,020 in Tuesday’s early European session. 
• Higher-than-expected US inflation figures fuelled speculation of a delay in the Fed’s move towards monetary policy easing. 
• The rising Middle East geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties lift the yellow metal. 
• The FOMC Meeting Minutes will be the highlight of this week. 

Gold price gains momentum for the fourth straight day during the early European session on Tuesday. The yellow metal trades in positive territory despite the rebound of the US Dollar (USD) and higher bond yields. Trading activity was low on Monday as markets closed in the US. However, investors will take more cues from the FOMC Minutes on Wednesday about the outlook for US interest rates. At press time, the gold price is trading at $2,020, adding 0.09% on the day. 

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the USD relative to a basket of global currencies, posts modest gains near 104.35. The US Treasury yields edge higher, with the 10-year yield standing at 4.30%. 

Given the stronger-than-expected recent US data, investors lower their bets on the rate cut expectations, which provide some support for the US Dollar (USD). According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the markets have priced in the first 25 basis points (bps) rate cut by the Fed in the June 2024 meeting.

On the other hand, the global central banks are likely to diversify foreign reserves and accumulate gold to hedge in their portfolios amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and economic uncertainties. This, in turn, could boost the demand for gold, a traditional safe-haven asset.

The FOMC Meeting Minutes will be released on Wednesday, and it might provide further insights into why Fed officials are not confident enough to begin easing policy in Q1 2024. On Thursday, the preliminary US S&P Global PMI for February will be due. These events could give a clear direction to the gold price.

• Gold price loses ground as US Dollar improves on Tuesday.
• The improvement in US Treasury yields could impact the non-yield assets like Gold.
• Investors await FOMC minutes to gain the Fed's perspective on the interest rate trajectory.

Gold price moves slightly lower on Tuesday after halting its three-day winning streak, inching lower to near $2,018 per troy ounce during the Asian trading hours. Prices of the yellow metal encounter a challenge due to the strengthening US Dollar (USD), which can be attributed to higher US bond yields. This upward movement in bond yields has exerted downward pressure on non-yielding assets like Gold.

Furthermore, market participants are eagerly awaiting the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes scheduled for Wednesday. This release could provide insight into the Federal Reserve's perspective on the future trajectory of interest rates.

However, ANZ forecasted that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will initiate the rate-cutting cycle starting from July 2024. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 53% possibility of a 25 basis points rate cut by the US Fed in the June meeting.

The recent dovish remarks from the Fed officials suggesting rate cuts in 2024 undermined the US Dollar on Monday. San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary C. Daly mentioned that three rate cuts are a reasonable baseline for 2024. Additionally, St. Louis Federal Reserve (Fed) president, James Bullard suggested Federal Reserve consider lowering interest rates at its March meeting.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the value of the US Dollar against six other major currencies, ends its four-day losing streak. The DXY trades higher around 104.40, with 2-year and 10-year yields on US bond coupons standing at 4.65% and 4.30%, respectively, at the current time.

Gold is forming one more base near the upper part of range. Economists at Société Générale analyze XAU/USD’s technical outlook.

First support at $1,973

• Gold price extends its winning streak for the third consecutive session on Monday.
• San Francisco Federal Reserve (Fed) President Mary C. Daly stated that three Fed rate cuts are possible in 2024.
• CME FedWatch Tool suggests a 52% probability of a 25 basis points rate cut in June.

Gold price continues to move on an upward trajectory, trading higher around $2,020 per troy ounce during the early European session on Monday. The precious metal receives upward support from cautious investor sentiment amid speculation about the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy.

The price of Gold surged as the US Dollar depreciated on San Francisco Federal Reserve (Fed) President Mary C. Daly’s remarks at the Annual National Association for Business Economics Economic Policy Conference. She stated that three rate cuts are a reasonable baseline for 2024. Daly emphasized that it's premature to consider allowing the economy to run without intervention. Additionally, former Fed official James Bullard's suggestion that the Fed should consider lowering interest rates at the March meeting to prevent hindering economic activity due to higher rates is contributing to market sentiment.

However, market sentiment indicates of no rate adjustments in the upcoming Federal Reserve meetings in March and May. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is approximately a 52% probability of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut in June. On Friday, the US Dollar (USD) failed to sustain its gains, which were initially fueled by better-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) data from the United States, consequently leading to an increase in Gold price.

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a year-over-year growth of 0.9%, against the expectations of 0.6% and the previous figure of 1.0%. Additionally, there was a monthly improvement of 0.3%, contrasting with the previous decline of 0.1%. However, the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 79.6 from the previous 79.0, although it fell short of the anticipated reading of 80.0.

• Gold price edges higher to $2,014 amid the USD weakness.
• The US Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.3% MoM in January versus a 0.1% decline prior, the largest increase since August 2023.
• The ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East might boost safe-haven flows and the gold price. 
• Traders will focus on the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) interest rate decision and the FOMC Minutes. 

Gold price (XAU/USD) holds above $2,000 during the early Asian session on Monday. US economic data suggests inflation is stickier than expected and prompted financial markets to dial back expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would start cutting interest rates in June. At press time, the gold price is trading at $2,014, gaining 0.12% on the day. 

The Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand rose 0.3% MoM in January from a 0.1% decline in December, the largest increase since August 2023. On an annual basis, the PPI figure climbed 0.9% YoY from a 1.0% rise in the previous reading. Meanwhile, US Housing Starts fell -14.8% from 1.562M to 1.331M, while Building Permits slumped -1.5%.

The markets anticipate the Fed to cut the interest rate this year, though the odds of a move in June are diminishing. The delay in interest rate cuts might weigh on the yellow gold. It’s worth noting that the high interest rate diminishes the appeal of non-yielding metals as it increases competition from higher-yielding investments.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will announce the interest rate decision on Tuesday, with no change in policy expected. Investors will also monitor the developments surrounding the additional stimulus measures from Chinese authorities in the coming months. 

Additionally, Hezbollah claimed to be acting in solidarity with its Gaza allies, Hamas and will continue to attack as long as Israel bombards the embattled Palestinian enclave. The rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East might lift gold prices, a traditional safe-haven asset. 

Moving on, market participants await the PBoC Interest Rate Decision on Tuesday. The FOMC Minutes will be released on Wednesday and will be a closely watched event. Traders will take cues from the data and find trading opportunities around the gold price. 

• Gold hits $2015, benefiting from a softer Dollar and higher US Treasury yields amid persistent inflation signs.
• US PPI and Core PPI surpass forecasts, indicating ongoing inflation and complicating Fed's targets.
• Hints of future rate cuts from Fed officials sway market outlook, enhancing gold's attractiveness as a hedge against policy ambiguity.

Gold price extended its gains for two straight days, hitting a three-day high at $2015 as the Greenback tumbled, despite US Treasury yields rising. US economic data suggests inflation is stickier than expected, though Federal Reserve’s officials opened the door to ease policy.

XAU/USD roses as US Data highlights inflation persistence, Fed officials suggest patience’s required

The XAU/USD exchanges hands at $2012.14, up 0.39%. US data from the US Department of Labor revealed that prices paid by producers rose above estimates, indicating that the US Federal Reserve still has work to do to curb inflation. The Producer Price Index (PPI) in January came at 0.9%, above estimates but shy of December’s 1%. Core PPI jumped sharply by 2%, exceeding the consensus and the previous month's data.

At the same time, US housing data witnessed Housing Starts plummeting -14.8%, from 1.562M to 1.331M, while Building Permits slumped -1.5%.

Meanwhile, the first Consumer Sentiment poll by the University of Michigan (UoM) noted that Americans remain optimistic about economic conditions. The index improved from 79.0 to 79.6, while inflation expectations for one year edged up to 3%, while for a five-year period, it stood unchanged at 2.9%.

The non-yielding meal edged higher, even though US Treasury bond yields, namely the 10-year benchmark note rate, rose six basis points to 4.29%, failing to underpin the Greenback.

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve officials crossed the wires, with Atlanta’s Fed President Raphael Bostic and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, leading the pack. Bostic said patience is required and foresees two rate cuts, which could begin in the summer if the data justifies it. Daly commented there’s work to do, adding “We will need to resist the temptation to act quickly when patience is needed and be prepared to respond agilely as the economy evolves.”

Both acknowledged that inflation has a downward trend but remain cautious about the timeline of beginning to ease policy.

Given the fundamental backdrop, Gold price would remain adrift to the outlook of the US economy. If inflation picks up, that could spark a jump in US Treasury bond yields. Therefore, further XAU/USD downside is expected. Conversely, if inflation continues to converge to the Fed’s 2% goal, that could open the door to rate cuts, which would weigh on the Greenback’s appeal. This means the XAU/USD upside is estimated.  

XAU/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook

Gold price is set to finish the week with losses, even though has recovered some ground. According to the daily moving averages (DMAs), XAU’s is upward biased, but since reaching $2088 on December 28, it has printed successive series of lower highs/lows, opening the door for further downside. If XAU/USD prints a daily close below $2000, that could sponsor a leg-down to the 100-DMA at $1996.10, followed by the December 13 low of $1973.13. A breach of the latter will expose the 200-DMA at $1965.46. On the upside, first resistance emerges at the 50-DMA at $2031.98.

Markets have pushed back on expectations for the Fed cut. Economists at OCBC Bank analyze its implications for the Gold price.

Headwinds from higher yields and stronger DXY may weigh against any building momentum

The Gold price fell to a two-month low of $1,985 this week following the publication of higher-than-expected US inflation data. Economists at Commerzbank analyze the yellow metal’s outlook.

Key interest rate cuts are still expected this year

• Gold price gains ground ahead of the release of the US PPI and Consumer Sentiment Index.
• The overnight surge in Wall Street could limit the advance of Gold prices.
• Gold garners attention from buyers following the weakening of the US Dollar in response to softer Retail Sales data reported on Thursday.

Gold price extends its gains for the second session, trading higher around $2,010 per troy ounce during the European session on Friday. The precious metal attracts some buyers amid risk aversion sentiment before the release of key economic data from the United States (US), particularly Producer Price Index (PPI) data and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.

The overnight surge in Wall Street could be attributed to the market optimism as no rate adjustment is viewed by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in its upcoming meetings in March and May, which could have limited the advance of Gold prices. However, the CME FedWatch Tool shows a 52% likelihood of a 25 bps rate cut in June.

The softer US Retail Sales data on Thursday weakened the Greenback, which in turn, underpinned the Gold prices. US Retail Sales (MoM) decreased 0.8% in January against the market expectation of 0.1% decline and the previous 0.4% increase. Meanwhile, Retail Sales Control Group declined by 0.4%, against the previous increase of 0.6%.

However, the US Initial Jobless Claims report for the week ending on February 9 showed a print of 212K, against the anticipated consistency at 220K. These figures, combined with the positive Consumer Inflation released on Tuesday, might have helped mitigate potential losses for the US Dollar.

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael W. Bostic seeks progress in addressing inflation, albeit with potential bumps along the way. Bostic indicated that if inflation were to recede more rapidly, he would reassess his interest rates outlook.

Gold pushed back above $2,000 after US Retail Sales came in softer-than-expected. Economists at Commerzbank analyze the yellow metal’s outlook.

The ongoing ETF outflows are a further negative factor

• Gold climbs 0.61% to $2003.50, buoyed by falling US Treasury yields and uncertain economic indicators.
• January's Retail Sales fall 0.8%, highlighting economic volatility amid poor weather affecting auto and gasoline sales.
• Fed's cautious inflation outlook and lower CPI than forecast weaken the Dollar, boosting gold's appeal.

Gold price recovered some ground on Thursday, as it reclaimed the $2000 mark due to falling US Treasury bond yields. A tranche of mixed US economic data weighed on the Greenback. Therefore, the XAU/USD posted gains of 0.61%, but as the Asian session begins, it trades at $2003.50.

Mixed US economic data and lower US Treasury yields boost Gold’s appeal

The latest data from the United States was mixed. Retail Sales for January saw a decrease of -0.8% month-over-month, falling short of both the previous month's figures and the estimated -0.1% contraction. This decline was largely attributed to reduced sales at auto dealerships and gasoline service stations, with stormy weather conditions further dampening sales.

Concurrently, Initial Jobless Claims for the latest week came at 212K, lower than both the forecasts and the previous week's reading of 220K. This comes as a somewhat unexpected development, given that claims were anticipated to increase following announcements of layoffs by several companies.

On Thursday, US Treasury bond yields lost two basis points and finished at 4.236%, while the US Dollar Index (DXY) dropped 0.41% to 104.28.

In the meantime, Federal Reserve Vice-Chairman for Supervision Michael Barr crossed the wires on Wednesday. He said that the path to 2% inflation would be ‘bumpy’ following the latest US inflation report. On Tuesday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at 3.1% YoY, below the previous reading of 3.4%, but missed estimates of 2.9%.

XAU/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook

Gold price is neutral to downward biased, even though the yellow metal trades above the 200-day moving average (DMA). From a price action standpoint, Gold has achieved successive series of lower highs and lows, opening the door for further downside. However, sellers must reclaim the 100-DMA at $1996.01, which could open the door to test the December 13 low of $1973.13, followed by the 200-DMA at $1965.41. Conversely, if buyers push prices above the 50-DMA at $2031.80, Gold could aim towards the February 1 high at $2065.60.

Gold (XAU/USD) dipped below $2,000 for the first time since December 2023. Economists at MUFG Bank analyze the yellow metal’s outlook.

Gold's resiliency intact despite hot US inflation dampening Fed rate cut expectations

Precious metals declined on the back of hotter-than-expected US inflation report. Economists at MUFG Bank analyze the market’s outlook.

Higher interest rates are typically negative for precious metals

• Gold price sticks to modest recovery gains near $1,993 on the weaker USD, lower bond yields. 
• The upbeat US January inflation data reinforced the Federal Reserve's (Fed) cautious approach to rate cuts in 2024.
• The rising geopolitical tension in the Middle East might benefit the yellow metal. 
• Traders will keep an eye on the US Retail Sales, due on Thursday. 

Gold prices (XAU/USD) holds below the $2,000 psychological mark during the early Asian session on Thursday. The stronger-than-expected US inflation data exerts some selling pressure on the yellow metal, but a fall in US bond yields and a weaker USD could provide little support to the commodities. The gold price currently trades around $1,993, gaining 0.13% on the day. 

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the USD relative to a basket of global currencies, retraces from a three-month high of nearly the 105.00 mark and hovers around 104.70. The US Treasury yields edge lower, with the 10-year yield standing at 4.26%. 

The stronger-than-expected US inflation data reinforced the Federal Reserve's (Fed) cautious approach to rate cuts in 2024. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr said that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) remains confident that US inflation is on the way to hitting the central bank's 2% target, but he needs to see continued good data before advocating for rate cuts. Barr added that he fully supports a careful approach to considering policy normalization given current conditions. 

Fed Chair Jerome Powell and several Fed officials said the central bank wants to see more good data and confirm the direction of inflation before easing monetary policy. Following these remarks, the markets are now pricing in a nearly 80% odds that the Fed will cut rates in June, dialing back previous bets the central bank would begin cutting rates in May, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. It’s worth noting that the high interest rate diminishes the appeal of non-yielding metals as it increases competition from higher-yielding investments. 

Apart from this, Israel launched extensive and lethal airstrikes in southern Lebanon on Wednesday, in response to a deadly missile attack on northern Israel. Israeli leaders have warned that they would take considerably stronger military action in Lebanon if the cross-border violence continues. The ongoing geopolitical tension in the Middle East might boost the price of gold, the traditional safe-haven asset. 

Market players will focus on US Retail Sales, which is estimated to drop by 0.1% in January. Additionally, the US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Industrial Production, and weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be due on Thursday. Traders will also take more cues from the FOMC’s Bostic and Waller speeches. These events could give a clear direction to the gold price.  

Gold fell below $2,000 after US inflation came in stronger than expected. Strategists at ANZ Bank analyze the yellow metal’s outlook.

US Treasury yields and the USD spiked after strong CPI print

• Gold price holds below $2,000 on the stronger USD and upbeat US CPI report. 
• The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation eased to 3.1% in January YoY from 3.4% in December. 
• The ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe might cap the downside of the gold price.

Gold price (XAU/USD) drops below the $2,000 psychological mark during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The stronger US inflation data exerts some selling pressure on the yellow metal as it diminishes hopes of an early rate cut. The gold price currently trades around $1,992, unchanged for the day. 

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the USD measured against a basket of six world currencies, trades near 104.85 after reaching a three-month high of 105.00. The US Treasury yields edge higher, with the 10-year yield standing at 4.32% and the 2-year rate jumping to 4.654%, the biggest one-day jump since May 5, 2023. 


The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation eased to 3.1% YoY in January from 3.4% in December, according to the U.S. Labor Department on Tuesday. On a monthly basis, the headline CPI increased 0.3% in January after rising 0.2% in December. The Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.4% in January from a 0.3% increase in December. Over the last 12 months, the figure climbed 3.9% YoY, above the market consensus of 3.7%. 

Traders in financial markets pushed back their interest rate cut expectations to June from May after the upbeat US CPI report. Inflation is slowing down, but not quickly enough to prompt Fed policymakers to begin lowering interest rates soon. Traders will take more cues from the US January Retail Sales and Producer Price Index (PPI) this week for fresh impetus. Gold prices could face further declines if other economic data remains strong.

On the other hand, geopolitical tensions continued in the Middle East and Eastern Europe. Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis have continued their attacks in the Red Sea, claiming solidarity with Palestinians and targeting vessels with commercial ties to the United States, Britain, and Israel. The ongoing tensions might boost traditional safe-haven assets like gold. 

Looking ahead, the Fed’s Goolsbee and Barr are set to peak on Wednesday. Later this week, gold traders will monitor US January Retail Sales on Thursday and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Friday. The figure is forecast to show an increase of 0.1% MoM and 0.6% YoY in January. 

Market participants on the Gold market today are likely to focus mainly on the publication of the US inflation data for January. Economists at Commerzbank analyze the yellow metal’s outlook ahead of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.

US inflation data in focus on the Gold market

• Gold price loses ground on cautious market sentiment ahead of US Inflation data.
• The improved Greenback fades the shine of the bright metal.
• Investors seem to prefer the US Dollar instead of safe-haven Gold during geopolitical tension.

Gold price moves on a downward trajectory that began on January 7, inching lower to near $2,020 per troy ounce during the Asian session on Tuesday. The precious metal is encountering resistance as the US Dollar strengthens for the second consecutive session, supported by subdued US bond yields in anticipation of the release of US inflation data on Tuesday.

The anticipation of inflationary pressures in the United States (US) has led to expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will abstain from reducing interest rates at the March meeting. This outlook is diminishing the appeal of non-yield-bearing assets like Gold. Markets are pricing in only a small 14% probability of a rate cut by the Fed in March. However, the likelihood of a rate cut at the May meeting is estimated to be around 60%.

Dallas Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank President Lorie K. Logan recently stated that there is presently no immediate need to lower interest rates. She acknowledged "significant progress" in curbing inflation but stressed the importance of obtaining additional evidence to ensure the sustainability of this progress.

The price of Gold is facing downward pressure as the US Dollar gains renewed demand amidst escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Yemen’s Houthi rebels reportedly launched missiles at a ship bound for a port in Iran, resulting in minor damage to the vessel but no injuries to its crew, according to authorities.

Israel conducted a series of airstrikes in the southern Gaza city of Rafah on Monday. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed his intention on Sunday to escalate military operations in Rafah after rejecting a ceasefire proposal from Hamas.