Quotes and rates for precious metals Gold vs US Dollar (XAUUSD)

Gold is enjoying a remarkable start to the year. Economists at MUFG Bank analyze the yellow metal’s outlook.

Gold’s structural resilience has further to run 

Gold’s price broke the key resistance of $2,140 last week, with prices rising 5%. Economists at ANZ Bank analyze XAU/USD technical outlook.

Cruising in an unchartered territory

Gold dipped 1.1% after the US inflation print came in higher than expected. Economists at TD Securities analyze the yellow metal’s outlook.

Gold may drift modestly lower toward the $2,025-$2,100 range

Higher than expected US inflation number weighed on Gold. Economists at ANZ Bank analyze the yellow metal’s outlook.

Market pricing for June cut to declined from 93% to 77%

Equities are not the only assets hitting all-time highs. Gold has been reaching record levels through the last few days. Economists at UBS analyze the yellow metal’s outlook.

Gold seen as a good portfolio hedge against risk spikes

Since the beginning of March, the price of Gold has risen by almost $150, or around 7%, to reach a new record high of $2,195 last Friday. Strategists at Commerzbank analyze the yellow metal’s outlook.

Mysterious Gold strength

Gold took a breather after prices hit a fresh high last week. On Tuesday, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) will dictate the fate of the yellow metal, economists at ANZ Bank report.

Tactical positions increased last week

See – Gold Price Forecast: Setback potential for XAU/USD on upside inflation surprise – Commerzbank

The strong rise in the price of Gold since the beginning of March has been facilitated by purchases on the part of speculative financial investors, economists at Commerzbank say.

Sharp rise in speculative net long positions in Gold

Gold takes a breather after prices hit a fresh high last week. Economists at Société Générale analyze XAU/USD technical outlook.

Objectives at $2,250/$2,360 after vaulting upper limit of multi-year range

Gold closed at a new record-high of $2,178 on Friday after trading above $2,200 briefly. Scope for additional gains will increasingly rely on macro trends, economists at TD Securities say.

Gold prices can still firm further, but additional gains will now rely more heavily on macro tailwinds

Gold (XAU/USD) has now gained close to 19% since a recent low in October and almost 7% over the past month alone. Strategists at UBS analyze the yellow metal’s outlook.

Potential for a pullback in Gold in the near term

• Gold price gains momentum near $2,182, adding 0.22% on the day. 
• US Nonfarm Payrolls climbed by 275K in February; the unemployment rate increased to a two-year high of 3.9%.
• The signal of rising domestic demand in China's economy in February lift the gold price. 
• The US February CPI and Retail Sales will be in the spotlight this week. 

Gold price (XAU/USD) extends the rally above $2,180 after reaching fresh all-time highs of nearly $2,200 during the early Asian session on Monday. The prospect that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut the interest rate this year lends some support to the yellow metal. Additionally, the ongoing geopolitical tensions also boost safe-haven demand. 

During the semiannual testimony on Capitol Hill last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the US economy is healthy and policymakers are not far from having enough confidence in inflation's downward trajectory to begin cutting rates. Futures markets have priced in about 70% odds that the Fed will start cutting interest rates by mid-June and expect a full percentage point of rate cuts by the end of the year, according to the CME FedWatch Tools. 

Data released from the Labor Department on Friday revealed that the US economy added 275,000 jobs in February, stronger than the estimation of 200,000. The Unemployment Rate rose to 3.9% in February from 3.7% in January, the highest level in two years. The mixed report triggered the possibility that the Fed will cut interest rates by June.

China’s inflation report on Saturday suggested that consumption in China has returned to normal levels. The signal of rising domestic demand in China's economy in February lift the gold price as China is the world's top gold consumer. 

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Saturday, the Chinese Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped by 0.7% YoY in February from a 0.8% decline in January, stronger than the expectation of a 0.3% rise. Meanwhile, the nation’s Producer Price Index (PPI) declined 2.7% YoY in February from a 2.5% decline in January, worse than the estimation and the previous reading of a 2.5% decline.

Gold traders will focus on the US CPI and Retail Sales for February for fresh impetus, due later this week. The CPI inflation figure is expected to show an increase of 0.4% MoM and 3.1 YoY in February, while the Retail Sales is forecast to climb 0.7% MoM in the same period. 

The new all-time highs for Gold are noteworthy. Strategists at Commerzbank think there is too much interest rate optimism on the Gold market and see the sharp rise as an exaggeration.

Lasting upside potential only when interest rate cuts in the US begin

Gold (XAU/USD) has reached a new all-time high above $2,160. Economists at ANZ Bank analyze what is behind this move higher.

Safe haven buying is also likely to be behind the move

• Gold price gains momentum around $2,165 amid the softer US Dollar, adding 0.12% on the day. 
• The dovish comments from central bank policymakers and safe-haven flows boost the demand for gold. 
• Gold traders await the Eurozone GDP Q4 growth numbers and US February labor market data. 

Gold price (XAU/USD) extends its upside around $2,165 after reaching a record high during the early European session on Friday. A weaker US Dollar (USD) and a decline in US Treasury bond yields provide some support to the gold price. Furthermore, the rising expectation for the first rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the June meeting boosts the demand for gold price. 

That being said, the dovish commentary from central bank policymakers creates a tailwind for the yellow metal. The Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the US central bank is "not far" from gaining enough confidence that inflation will reach its 2% target to begin lowering interest rates. Investors will take more cues from the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data on Friday for fresh impetus, which is expected to see 200,000 jobs added to the US economy. However, the stronger-than-expected data might lift the Greenback and exert some selling pressure on the gold price. 

Meanwhile, European Central Bank (ECB) Christine Lagarde indicated the ECB may ease policy in its June meeting. The ECB maintained its benchmark rate unchanged at 4.0% at its March meeting on Thursday, but it lowered its inflation forecast for 2024 from 2.7% to 2.3%, indicating the central bank opened the door to possible rate cuts in the coming months.

Furthermore, Chinese investors purchased the yellow metal as a safe place to keep their cash after the property sector and stock markets in China tumbled. The escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East might be attributed to the demand for traditional safe-haven assets as well.  

Gold traders will closely watch the Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter (GDP). On the US docket, the February labor market data, including Nonfarm-Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings will be released. Traders will take cues from the data and find trading opportunities around the gold price. 

• Gold price halts its winning streak amid a stable US Dollar.
• Gold price received upward support on speculation of a Fed rate cut in June.
• Fed Chair Powell reiterated at potential rate cuts sometime in 2024.

Gold price snaps its winning streak that began on February 28, correcting lower to near $2,160 per troy ounce during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The prices of yellow metal have been buoyed by market expectations of the Federal Reserve (Fed) potentially initiating an interest rate cut cycle starting in June.

The upward momentum in Gold prices was further strengthened by comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell during his second day of testimony before the US Congress, where he reaffirmed the central bank's position, thus reinforcing the speculation surrounding potential rate cuts.

Fed Chair Powell has hinted at potential cuts in borrowing costs sometime this year, contingent upon the inflation trajectory aligning with the Fed's 2% target. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 5.0% probability of a 25 basis points rate cut in March, while the likelihood of cuts in May and June stands at 25.5% and 56.7%, respectively.

Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester addressed the Virtual European Economics and Financial Center, expressing concerns about the potential persistence of inflation throughout the year. She indicated that if the economy aligns with forecasts, there could be a likelihood of rate cuts later in the year.

On the data front, US Initial Jobless Claims held steady at 217K for the week ending on March 1, against the expectations of 215K. Meanwhile, US Nonfarm Productivity remained consistent, maintaining growth at 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2023, slightly surpassing market expectations of 3.1%.

Traders are eagerly anticipating Friday's employment data, which includes Average Hourly Earnings and Nonfarm Payrolls, to gain further insights into the economic situation in the United States (US).

• Spot Gold bids set a new record high on Wednesday.
• XAU/USD touches $2,150 as markets devour Fed Chair Powell’s words.
• Fed’s Powell sees no recession, qualifies inflation outlook.

Spot Gold prices are pushing deeply into bullish territory on Wednesday, with XAU/USD setting a tentative all-time high at $2,150.00. Markets are bidding up Gold following the first of a two-day appearance from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell.

Jerome Powell Speech: Fed Chair doesn't see elevated risk of recession

Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted on Wednesday that the Fed doesn’t see any imminent risk of a US recession. The Fed head also clarified the US central bank’s outlook on inflation, tipping the hat to investors hoping for rate cuts. Fed Chair Powell noted that progress on inflation is ongoing, and while the Fed is waiting for more evidence that inflation will reach 2%, US policymakers are looking for more of what they’ve already seen, not necessarily better overall inflation readings.

Markets took the opportunity to bid Spot Gold into record prices on Fed headlines, and February’s miss in ADP Employment Change is helping to bolster market hopes for easing economic conditions in the US.

ADP Employment Change in February came in at 140K versus the 150K forecast, while the previous month’s print saw a revision to 111K from 107K. US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) still loom ahead on Friday, and markets are expecting the headline print to ease back to 200K from last month’s 11-month high of 353K.

XAU/USD technical outlook

With XAU/USD trading into all-time highs, technical barriers are difficult to draw into the charts, though intraday price action is seeing some hesitation at $2,150.00, a level that saw a sharp rejection recently. Spot Gold has traded on the bullish side since crossing above the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) in mid-February near $2,015.00.

XAU/USD caught several bounces from the 200-hour SMA near $2,030.00, and the key technical barrier is rising towards $2,070.00 as the closest near-term price floor for any bearish pullbacks.

Spot Gold prices are on pace to close bullish for a sixth consecutive day, and XAU/USD has closed in the green or close to flat for all but two of the last fourteen trading days straight.

XAU/USD hourly chart

XAU/USD daily chart

The timing and pace of the easing cycle will be crucial for the Gold price, economists at ANZ Bank say. 

XAU/USD to move sideways until the Fed confirms the timing and pace of its easing cycle

Gold (XAU/USD) nears all-time high despite little change in US interest rate expectations. Economists at Commerzbank analyze the yellow metal’s outlook.

Gold flying high