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CFD Trading Rate New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar (NZDUSD)

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  • 05.03.2024 23:06
    NZD/USD posts modest gains below 0.6100, focus on Fed’s Powell’s testimony
    • NZD/USD holds positive ground around 0.6085 in Wednesday's early Asian session. 
    • The US February ISM Services PMI fell to 52.6 vs. 53.4 prior, weaker than expected.
    • RBNZ remains alert for further inflation shocks and wants to see it back at the 2% target before lowering rate. 

    The NZD/USD pair posts modest gains below the 0.6100 psychological mark during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The decline of the US Dollar (USD) and Treasury bond yields after the softer ISM services data provides some support to the pair. Investors shift their focus to Chair Jerome Powell’s first testimony, followed by the ADP report, due later on Wednesday. At press time, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6085, gaining 0.02% on the day. 

    On Tuesday, the US February ISM Services PMI fell to 52.6 from 53.4 in January, weaker than the estimation of 53.0. The New Orders Index rose to 56.1 from the previous reading of 55.0. The Employment Index dropped to 48.0 versus 50.5 prior, and the Prices Paid Index declined to 58.6 from 64.0 in the previous reading. 

    Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Powell’s testimony to the Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday will take center stage. Investors believe that Fed Chair Powell will err hawkish and emphasize the need for more data to be confident in cutting interest rates. The hawkish remarks from Fed officials might lift the Greenback and weigh on the NZD/USD pair. 

    On the Kiwi front, Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Chief Economist Paul Conway said on Wednesday that the falls in inflation are encouraging and interest rates will need to stay restrictive for a sustained period of time. Last week, the RBNZ decided to leave the policy rate unchanged at 5.50% for the fifth meeting in a row. Governor Adrian Orr reiterated during the press conference that the central bank was concerned about underlying inflation and how growing inflation is easing. He further stated that the Official Cash Rate (OCR) needed to stay in the restrictive zone for a “sustained” period to ensure inflation returned to the 1-3% target.

    Markey players will focus on Fed Chair Powell’s testimony, ADP report, and JOLTS Job Openings on Wednesday. On Friday, the US labor market data will be released, including US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), Average Hourly Earnings, and Unemployment Rate.

     

  • 05.03.2024 11:24
    NZD/USD Price Analysis: Finds temporary support near 0.6070, Fed Powell’s testimony in focus
    • NZD/USD finds an interim support near 0.6070, downside remains favored on dismal market mood.
    • Fed Powell might maintain a hawkish rhetoric in his testimony before Congress on Wednesday.
    • China’s ambitious growth target fails to uplift the New Zealand Dollar’s appeal.

    The NZD/USD pair finds some buying interest after a sell-off to near 0.6070 in the European session on Tuesday. The Kiwi asset is expected to remain on the tenterhooks as investors await the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress, scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday.

    Fed Powell is expected to maintain a hawkish rhetoric amid absence of evidence that could signal a significant progress in inflation declining towards the 2% target.

    The market sentiment remains cautious ahead of the Fed Powell’s testimony. S&P 500 futures have generated significant losses in the London session. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is slightly up 0.03% at 103.85.

    Meanwhile, Chinese Premier Li Qiang’s ambitious 5% Gross Domestic Product (GDP) target for 2024 has failed to uplift demand for the New Zealand Dollar. The New Zealand economy is one of China's major trading partners, and improving Chinese economic prospects generally results in a positive development for the Kiwi Dollar.

    NZD/USD declines toward the horizontal support of the Descending Triangle pattern on a four-hour timeframe, placed from January 23 low at 0.6062. The downward-sloping border of the aforementioned chart pattern is plotted from December 25 high at 0.6410.  

    Usually, a Descending Triangle pattern exhibits indecisiveness among market participants but with a slight downside bias due to lower highs and flat lows.

    The asset remains below the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 0.6118, indicating uncertainty for near-term demand.

    The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls into the bearish range of 20.00-40.00 range after failing to shift in the 40.00-60.00 region. This indicates a “sell on rise” behavior of market participants.

    Going forward, a downside move below February 13 low near 0.6050would expose the asset to the psychological support of 0.6000, followed by November 9 high at 0.5956.

    On the flip side, an upside move would emerge if the asset will break above the round-level resistance of 0.6200, which will drive the asset towards February 22 high at 0.6220, followed by January 11 high at 0.6260.

    NZD/USD four-hour chart

     

  • 05.03.2024 04:28
    NZD/USD hovers around 0.6090 amid risk aversion ahead of US labor data
    • NZD/USD faces struggles as traders adopt cautious stance before US key data.
    • Fed’s Powell will testify before the US Congress regarding the Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report on both Wednesday and Thursday.
    • Chinese Services PMI fell to 52.5 in February from 52.7 prior.
    • New Zealand Commodity Prices rose by 3.5% in February, against the previous rise of 2.1%.

    NZD/USD trims some of its intraday losses as the NZX 50 Index recovers its daily losses on Monday. The NZD/USD pair hovers around 0.6090 during the Asian session on Tuesday. The pair faces downward pressure on risk-off sentiment ahead of key US economic data this week, including the ISM Services PMI data, ADP Employment Change, and Nonfarm Payrolls for February.

    Traders are also keenly awaiting insights into the Federal Reserve's (Fed) stance and forthcoming policy decisions. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before the US Congress' House Financial Services Committee regarding the Fed's Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report on both Wednesday and Thursday. As per the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 3.0% probability of a 25 basis points rate cut in March, with the likelihood of cuts in May and June standing at 21.8% and 50.9%, respectively.

    ANZ Commodity Prices, released by National Bank ANZ, increased by 3.5% in February, following January's increase of 2.1%. New Zealand's Manufacturing Sales for the fourth quarter is anticipated to be released on Thursday.

    Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Adrian Orr reiterated the central bank's plan to begin policy normalization in 2025, citing elevated inflation as a reason to maintain restrictive monetary policy for the foreseeable future.

    Moreover, China aims for approximately 5% GDP growth in 2024 by prioritizing job creation and risk management. Chinese authorities stress the importance of sustaining proactive fiscal policies and prudent monetary measures. This target could potentially bolster the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), given the close business ties between the two countries, consequently supporting the NZD/USD pair. Additionally, Chinese Services PMI contracted to 52.5 in February from 52.7 in the previous period.

     

  • 04.03.2024 23:10
    NZD/USD remains capped under the 0.6100 mark, US Services PMI eyed
    • NZD/USD posts modest gains around 0.6095 in Tuesday’s early Asian session. 
    • Fed’s Bostic said the Fed is under no urgent pressure to cut interest rates given a strong economy. 
    • China will deliver a top annual political event, which might ease the fear about the fate of the Chinese economy.

    The NZD/USD pair remains capped under the 0.6100 mark during the early Asian session on Tuesday. Financial markets will be cautious this week as they await economic data and policy guidance. The US February ISM Services PMI will be due later in the day. The pair currently trades near 0.6095, up 0.02% on the day. 

    Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is under no urgent pressure to cut interest rates given a strong economy and job market. Bostic further stated that it will likely be appropriate for the Fed to approve two quarter-point rate cuts by the end of this year. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said central bank officials are ready to lower interest rates as needed but emphasized there's no urgent need to cut given the strength of the economy. 

    Investors will take more cues from Fed's Chair Jerome Powell's testimony on Wednesday, which might offer some hints about a broad overview of the economy and monetary policy. The hawkish remarks might lift the US Dollar (USD) and act as a headwind for the NZD/USD pair. 

    China’s economy has been roiled by a property sector crisis, raising concern about the health of the second-largest economy in the world. Market players will monitor the National People's Congress to see what's on offer when it starts on Tuesday. The development surrounding the stimulus plan from Chinese authorities could boost the China-proxy New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and cap the downside of the NZD/USD pair. 

    Looking ahead, the US ISM Services PMI will be due on Tuesday, along with the final S&P Global Services PMI, Factory Orders, and the RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index. Additionally, the Fed’s M. Barr is set to speak. These events could give a clear direction to the NZD/USD pair. 

     

  • 04.03.2024 05:15
    NZD/USD edges lower to near 0.6100, awaits US ISM Services PMI data
    • NZD/USD loses ground amid a stable US Dollar on Monday.
    • New Zealand Terms of Trade Index (Q4) indicated a trade deficit of 7.8% against the expected 0.2% deficit.
    • CME FedWatch Tool suggested Fed rate cut probability in March stands at 5.0%, with May and June estimated at 26.8% and 53.8%, respectively.

    NZD/USD retraces recent gains, lowering down to near 0.6100 during the Asian session on Monday. The Terms of Trade Index released by Statistics New Zealand, a measure of the balance amount between imports and exports, indicated a trade deficit of 7.8% for the fourth quarter of 2023, which was higher than market expectations of a 0.2% deficit. The previous reading was a 0.6% decrease in the third quarter.

    On Friday, ANZ – Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (Jan) showed an improvement of 0.9 to 94.5 from 93.6. However, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) had gained ground previously due to comments from Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Adrian Orr, who mentioned that the central bank anticipates starting policy normalization in 2025. Due to elevated inflation, Orr highlighted the necessity for monetary policy to remain restrictive for the time being.

    The US Dollar Index (DXY) faced downward pressure primarily due to a contraction in the United States (US) manufacturing sector observed in February. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped to 47.8 in February, from the previous reading of 49.1. The index has surprisingly missed the market expectation of 49.5. Additionally, the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index declined to 76.9 in February, falling below the market expectation of remaining unchanged at 79.6.

    Atlanta Fed President Raphael W. Bostic has expressed his expectation that the first cut in interest rates would likely be appropriate, possibly occurring towards the end of this year at the earliest, which provides some support for the US Dollar (USD). According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of Fed rate cuts in March stands at 5.0%, while the likelihood of cuts in May and June is estimated at 26.8% and 53.8%, respectively.

    Investors will likely monitor closely upcoming economic data releases, including the ISM Services PMI data, ADP Employment Change, and Nonfarm Payrolls for February. Moreover, the focus will be on the speech of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday and Thursday for further insights into the central bank's monetary policy stance.

     

  • 01.03.2024 14:34
    NZD/USD: Kiwi remains attractive given yield appeal – OCBC

    NZD/USD consolidates after the recent decline post-RBNZ meeting. Economists at OCBC Bank analyze the pair’s outlook.

    Some unwinding of Kiwi longs may still be underway

    For now, rates are likely to remain at restrictive level for sustained period to meet inflation objective. 

    Some unwinding of Kiwi longs may still be underway but after the washout, NZD remains attractive, given yield appeal as RBNZ is likely to be one of the last amongst DM central banks to cut rates. 

    Some degree of policy divergence with the Fed is possible in 2H 2024 and eventual stabilisation in China economy should also be supportive of NZD.

     

  • 01.03.2024 08:42
    NZD/USD Price Analysis: Maintains position below 0.6100 before 23.6% Fibonacci level
    • NZD/USD positions below 0.6100 after recovering intraday losses.
    • The pair could find the immediate resistance zone around the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.6124 and the nine-day EMA at 0.6127.
    • Technical analysis indicates a confirmation of the bearish sentiment.

    NZD/USD moves sideways with a bias to continue its losing streak that began on February 23. The pair hovers around 0.6090 during the European session on Friday, positioned just below the immediate resistance of the psychological level at 0.6100.

    A breakthrough above the latter could exert upward support for the NZD/USD pair to explore the resistance zone around the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.6124, in conjunction with the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6127.

    Further resistance barriers are anticipated around the major level of 0.6150, followed by the psychological level of 0.6200 and February’s high at 0.6219.

    Based on the technical analysis of the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), the NZD/USD pair appears to exhibit a downward sentiment. The MACD line is positioned below both the centerline and the signal line, indicating a bearish trend. Furthermore, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below the 50 level, suggesting a confirmation of the bearish sentiment.

    On the downside, the NZD/USD pair could find key support at the major support level of 0.6050 followed by February’s low at 0.6037. A break below this level could prompt the pair to navigate the support region around the psychological level of 0.6000.

    NZD/USD: Daily Chart

     

  • 01.03.2024 03:01
    NZD/USD improves to near 0.6090 as RBNZ Orr underscores necessity of restrictive policy
    • NZD/USD snaps its losing streak on hawkish remarks from RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr.
    • Governor Orr noted that while inflation remains elevated, it is trending downward.
    • Market expectations for the Fed’s first-rate cut have been pushed back due to recent US data.

    NZD/USD broke its four-day losing streak following comments from Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Adrian Orr on Friday. Orr stated that the central bank anticipates commencing policy normalization in 2025. As a result, the pair climb higher, reaching near 0.6090 during the Asian session.

    Governor Orr mentioned that the economy is progressing as expected, with inflation expectations decreasing. While inflation remains elevated, it is on a downward trend. Orr emphasized the need for monetary policy to remain restrictive for some time. He also expressed expectations for economic growth to pick up in 2024.

    The US Dollar Index (DXY) is slightly lower, hovering near 104.10, despite the improved US Treasury bond yields, which stand at 4.63% for the 2-year and 4.25% for the 10-year bonds at the time of publication. However, market expectations for the Federal Reserve's first-rate cut have been pushed back due to recent Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data from the United States (US), providing support for the US Dollar (USD).

    The Greenback gained ground following the release of the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the US Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index, which met expectations. Investors are now focusing on the final US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for February, scheduled for release on Friday.

    The US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index expanded by 2.4% year-over-year (YoY) in January, down from the previous reading of 2.6%, aligning with market expectations. On a month-over-month basis, the index increased by 0.3%, compared to a 0.1% increase in the prior period.

    Meanwhile, the US Core PCE, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, grew by 2.8% YoY, slightly lower than December's 2.9%, in line with consensus estimates. On a monthly basis, the core PCE rose by 0.4%, surpassing the previous 0.1% increase.

     

  • 29.02.2024 22:07
    NZD/USD tallies a losing day, hawkish bets on the Fed cushions the USD
    • The NZD/USD traded at around 0.6085 with 0.25% losses in Thursday's session.
    • US inflation rate, gauged by the Core PCE Price Index fell in January, matching expectations.
    • Following RBNZ’s dovish hold, if the market keeps delaying rate cuts of the Fed, more downside may be incoming.

    The NZD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.6085, reflecting a 0.25% decline in Thursday’s session. Data-wise, US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) showed no surprises, but markets are aligning with the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) forecast of 75 bps of easing in 2024, which is benefiting the USD.

    On Thursday, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the annual inflation rate in the US, measured by the change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, rose by 2.4% in January, decelerating from 2.6% in December, which was in line with what markets had anticipated. The index experienced a monthly uptick of 0.3%, exactly as expected. When excluding the fluctuating sectors of food and energy, the Core PCE Price Index rose by 2.8% year-over-year, aligning with the consensus.

    Regarding expectations, markets seem to have given up the hopes of a cut from the Fed in March or May and instead pushed the start of the easing cycle in June, which seems to be pushing the pair down.

    NZD/USD technical analysis

    On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the NZD/USD shows an overall declining trend, transitioning from the positive territory to the negative territory. This indicates a shift from bullish to bearish momentum, demonstrating a power change from buyers to sellers. This is also supported by the decreasing green bars in the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram, suggesting a deceleration in positive momentum.

    In terms of the broader trend, despite the pair trading below the 20 and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), it remains above the 200-day SMA. This indicates that while there is short-term bearish pressure, the long-term uptrend hasn't been completely overruled.

     

  • 29.02.2024 04:17
    NZD/USD Price Analysis: Sticks to modest gains around 0.6100, not out of the woods yet
    • NZD/USD stages a modest recovery from over a one-week low amid some USD selling.
    • The technical setup warrants some caution before positioning for any meaningful gains.
    • Acceptance below the 100-day SMA is needed to confirm the near-term negative outlook.

    The NZD/USD pair attracts some buying during the Asian session on Thursday and reverses a part of the previous day's heavy losses to a one-and-half-week low touched in the aftermath of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) policy decision. Spot prices currently trade around the 0.6100 mark, albeit lack follow-through as traders keenly await the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index before placing fresh directional bets.

    Heading into the key data risk, the US Dollar (USD) bulls seem reluctant to place aggressive bets and opt to wait on the sidelines, which, in turn, is seen lending some support to the NZD/USD pair. That said, the Federal Reserve's (Fed) higher-for-longer rates narrative should help limit any meaningful USD downfall. Apart from this, a generally weaker tone around the equity markets could benefit the Greenback's relative safe-haven status and cap the risk-sensitive Kiwi.

    From a technical perspective, the post-RBNZ slump showed some resilience below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and stalled just ahead of the 200-day SMA. The latter is currently pegged near the 0.6080-0.6075 region and should act as a key pivotal point. Given that oscillators on the daily chart have just started gaining negative traction, a convincing break below the said support will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and pave the way for deeper losses.

    The subsequent downfall has the potential to drag the NZD/USD pair back towards the YTD low, around the 0.6040-0.6035 region touched earlier this February, en route to the 0.6000 psychological mark. The next relevant support is pegged near the 0.5965 area before spot prices weaken further below the 0.5940-0.5935 intermediate support, towards testing sub-0.5900 levels for the first time since November 2023.

    On the flip side, any further recovery is more likely to attract fresh sellers and remain capped near the 0.6140-0.6145 horizontal resistance. That said, a sustained strength beyond could trigger a short-covering rally and allow the NZD/USD pair to reclaim the 0.6200 round-figure mark. This is followed by the monthly peak, around the 0.6215-0.6220 region touched last week, which if cleared decisively will shift the near-term bias back in favour of bullish traders.

    NZD/USD daily chart

    fxsoriginal

     

  • 28.02.2024 22:51
    NZD/USD remains on the defensive near 0.6100, all eyes on US PCE data
    • NZD/USD remains under selling pressure near 0.6100 in Thursday’s early Asian session. 
    • The US economy expanded at a 3.2% annualized rate for the fourth quarter of last year. 
    • The RBNZ maintained the interest rate steady at 5.5%, as widely expected on Wednesday.
    • The US PCE inflation data will be a closely watched event on Thursday. 

    The NZD/USD pair remains on the defensive around 0.6100 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The downtick of the pair is supported by the dovish shift from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) following the monetary policy meeting. The attention will shift to the US inflation figures measured by the PCE on Thursday. 

    Data released from the Commerce Department on Wednesday reported that the US economy grew at a 3.2% annual pace from October through December from a 3.3% initial estimate. The GDP growth rate has now surpassed 2% for six consecutive quarters, despite a forecast that rising interest rates may push the world's largest economy into a recession.

    The RBNZ decided to hold the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 5.5%, as widely expected in its February monetary policy meeting. However, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) stated that the central bank is no longer forecasting additional tightening, though they continue to see OCR risks as tilted to the upside. This, in turn, exerts some selling pressure on the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and acts as a headwind for the NZD/USD pair. 

    Moving on, market players will closely watch the US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) for January on Thursday. Also, the US Personal Income, Personal Spending, Pending Home Sales, and the weekly Initial Jobless Claims are due later in the day and the Fed’s Bostic, Goolsbee, and Mester are due to speak. These events could give a clear direction to the NZD/USD pair. 

     

     

  • 28.02.2024 14:57
    NZD/USD to decline further over the coming year – Danske Bank

    The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) held its Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged. Economists at Danske Bank analyze NZD/USD outlook after the decision.

    RBNZ holds rates steady

    The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) held monetary policy unchanged. In contrast to other G10 central banks eyeing the start of their respective rate cutting cycles, markets have speculated on an additional rate hike from the RBNZ, but the tone of today's announcement was clearly to the dovish side, suggesting that the current level of policy rate is seen as sufficiently restrictive. 

    We expect NZD/USD to decline further over the coming year, with a 12M target at 0.5700.

     

  • 28.02.2024 09:45
    NZD/USD to retrace the bulk of its recent gains – TDS

    The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is losing its ground after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) poured cold water on further rate increases this year. Economists at TD Securities analyze Kiwi’s outlook.

    RBNZ on hold till May'25

    The RBNZ kept the Overnight Cash Rate (OCR) on hold in line with consensus at 5.50% but the accompanying Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) read less hawkish than its Nov'23 MPS.

    The Bank has set a very high bar to act. We now expect the RBNZ to remain on hold till May next year when it starts cutting.

    Markets were likely positioned for a hawkish RBNZ judging by the bids in NZD over the past two weeks, but the lack of any hawkish bias would likely see NZD retrace the bulk of its recent gains.

    In the near term, NZD/USD could revisit the 100-DMA and 200-DMAa at 0.6093 and 0.6077 respectively.

    After the red-hot run, equities may be due for a pullback as the earnings season wraps up, which poses downside risk to NZD.

     

  • 28.02.2024 08:17
    NZD/USD plunges to 0.6100 on risk-off mood, RBNZ’s dovish guidance
    • NZD/USD drops vertically to 0.6100 on dismal mood, RBNZ signals peak for interest rates.
    • The RBNZ sees inflation declining to the 1%-3% range by Q32024.
    • Investors await the US core PCE price index data for fresh guidance.

    The NZD/USD pair witnesses an intense sell-off amid multiple headwinds. The Kiwi asset plunges to the round-level support of 0.6100 due to dismal market sentiment and a dovish guidance from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).

    The RBNZ kept its Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 5.50% for the fifth time in a row to maintain downward pressures on sticky inflation. The central bank sees the consumer price inflation returning to the desired range of 1%-3% by the third quarter of 2024.

    Meanwhile, chances of further policy tightening by the RBNZ have eased dramatically as it has warned about potential risks to the New Zealand economy. However, latest forecasts from the RBNZ show that no rate cuts are expected before 2025.

    In addition to that, dismal market sentiment has weighed heavily on the New Zealand Dollar. The market mood has turned cautious as investors await the United States core Personal Consumption Expenditure price index (PCE) data for January, which will be published on Thursday. The underlying inflation data will provide more cues about when the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start reducing interest rates.

    The consensus from economists shows that the core PCE price index grew by 0.4% on a month-on-month basis against a 0.2% increase in December. Annually, the underlying inflation data decelerated to 2.8% from 2.9% in December. Soft inflation data would prompt expectations of rate cuts by the Fed.

     

  • 28.02.2024 03:35
    NZD/USD Price Analysis: Could test psychological level of 0.6100 following February’s high
    • NZD/USD plunges after the RBNZ decides to hold OCR at 5.5%.
    • A break below 0.6100 could lead the pair to navigate the region around the major support of 0.6050 and February’s low at 0.6037.
    • The immediate resistance appears around the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.6124 followed by the major barrier at 0.6150.

    NZD/USD extends its losing streak for the fourth consecutive session, plunging to near 0.6110 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The pair faces challenges as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decided to hold the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 5.5% in its February monetary policy meeting.

    The immediate support for the NZD/USD pair is anticipated at the psychological level of 0.6100. A break below this psychological support could put downward pressure on the pair to navigate the region around the major support level of 0.6050 followed by February’s low at 0.6037.

    The lagging indicator Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) suggests a momentum shift toward the downward sentiment for the NZD/USD pair. The MACD line is positioned above the centerline but shows convergence above the signal line.

    Additionally, the technical analysis of the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) lies below the 50 level, suggesting a bearish sentiment.

    On the upside, the NZD/USD pair could find the immediate resistance around the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.6124 followed by the major barrier at 0.6150. A breakthrough above this level could lead the pair to explore the resistance zone around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.6179 and the psychological level of 0.6200.

    Further improvement of the NZD/USD pair could retest February’s high at 0.6219.

    NZD/USD: Daily Chart

     

  • 28.02.2024 01:13
    NZD/USD plummets to over one-week low, bears eye 0.6100 mark after RBNZ
    • NZD/USD meets with aggressive supply after the RBNZ decides to maintain the status quo.
    • The sharp intraday downfall seems rather unaffected by the lack of any USD buying interest.
    • Traders now look to RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr’s presser for some meaningful impetus.

    The NZD/USD pair attracts heavy selling after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announced its policy decision and dives to over a one-week low in the last hour. Spot prices currently trade around the 0.6120 region and seem vulnerable to prolonging the recent retracement slide from over a one-month peak touched last week.

    As was anticipated, the RBNZ decided to keep the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 5.50% for the fifth time in a row at the end of the February policy meeting. This seems to have disappointed some investors anticipating further tightening in the wake of still-sticky inflation and turns out to be a key factor exerting downward pressure on the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). The focus now shifts to RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr’s press conference at 02:00 GMT, which should infuse some volatility and produce short-term trading opportunities around the NZD/USD pair.

    In the meantime, bulls seem rather unaffected by subdued US Dollar (USD) price action, which continues with its struggle to gain any meaningful traction amid the looming US government shutdown. Apart from this, Tuesday's disappointing release of the US Durable Goods Orders and a softer tone surrounding the US Treasury bond yields keep the USD bulls on the defensive, albeit does little to lend any support to the NZD/USD pair. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the downside and validates the near-term negative outlook.

     

  • 27.02.2024 22:55
    NZD/USD oscillates in a narrow range below 0.6200 ahead of RBNZ rate decision
    • NZD/USD consolidates around 0.6170 in Wednesday’s early Asian session. 
    • The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to keep the interest rate steady at 5.50% in February. 
    • Hawkish comments from Fed Governor Bowman and Kansas City Fed President Schmid provided little support to the USD. 
    • The US GDP growth numbers for Q4 will be due later on Wednesday. 

    The NZD/USD pair oscillates in a narrow trading range above the mid-0.6100s during the early Asian session on Wednesday. Investors prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Interest Rate Decision, with no change in rate expected. At press time, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6170, gaining 0.06% on the day. 

    The RBNZ is expected to keep the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 5.50% for the fifth meeting in a row. However, the possibility of a rate hike cannot be ruled out. Investors will monitor RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr’s press conference, which might offer some hints about the monetary policy and inflation outlook. If the New Zealand central bank surprises markets with a 25 basis points (bps) rate hike, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) might attract some buyers. On the other hand, the dovish comments from RBNZ could drag the NZD lower and create a headwind for the NZD/USD pair. 

    On the USD’s front, hawkish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials provided little support to the US Dollar (USD). Fed Governor Bowman said inflation will continue to decline with interest rates held at current levels, but it is not yet time to start lowering rates, while Kansas City Fed President Schmid stated that there is no need to preemptively adjust the stance of monetary policy as inflation is running above target, labor markets are tight, and demand is showing considerable momentum. 

    Investors will closely watch the US Gross Domestic Product Annualized for the fourth quarter (Q4) on Wednesday, along with preliminary Goods Trade Balance, Fed’s Bostic, Collins, and Williams speeches. The attention will shift to the Fed's preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE) report on Thursday. The stronger-than-expected data might lift the Greenback and cap the upside of the NZD/USD pair. 

     

  • 27.02.2024 15:44
    NZD/USD: Bullish profile for the rest of the year – ING

    The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has had a strong month of February, emerging as the best-performing G10 currency. Economists at ING analyze Kiwi’s outlook.

    NZD/USD to break the 0.6500 mark the third quarter

    Our view that rate cuts in New Zealand won’t start before August and that the Fed should instead start cutting during the summer translates into a bullish NZD/USD profile for the rest of the year. However, external volatility can offset the positives of a hawkish RBNZ in February and favour a near-term slide to more attractive levels for longer-term bullish positioning. 

    We see NZD/USD breaking the 0.6500 mark in 3Q24.

    Some downside risks related to the US elections and potentially negative implications for China-related sentiment may warrant a less optimistic NZD profile in 4Q24.

     

  • 27.02.2024 10:48
    NZD/USD Price Analysis: Falls to 0.6150 ahead of US core PCE data, RBNZ policy
    • NZD/USD drops to 0.6150 as the US Dollar gauges temporary support.
    • Investors await the US core PCE price index and the RBNZ monetary policy for further guidance.
    • The RBNZ is expected to keep interest rates at 5.50%.

    The NZD/USD pair remains on the backfoot near 0.6150 in Tuesday’s European session. The Kiwi asset faces a sell-off as investors see the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) keeping its Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 5.50%.

    Last week, RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr warned about economic risks associated with the over-tightening of monetary policy. While he acknowledged that the RBNZ needs to do more work to tame price pressures.

    Meanwhile, the US Dollar recovers intraday losses as investors turn cautious ahead of the United States core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index data for January, which will be published on Thursday. The inflation data will guide market expectations for rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed).

    Meanwhile, Fed policymakers have been in favor of keeping interest rates unchanged in the range of %-% until they get convinced that inflation will decline to the 2% target.

    NZD/USD falls sharply after testing the breakdown of the consolidation formed in a range of 0.6180-0.6220 on an hourly scale. A breakdown of the consolidation indicates that institutional investors sell inventory to retail participants.

    The near-term outlook has turned bearish as it has dropped below the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 0.6174.

    The range shift move by the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) from the bullish range of 40.00-80.00 to 20.00-60.00 indicates that investors will use pullback moves to make fresh shorts.

    Going forward, a downside move below February 20 low near 0.6129 would expose the asset to the round-level support of 0.6100, followed by February 13 low near 0.6050.

    On the flip side, an upside move would emerge if the asset will break above the round-level resistance of 0.6200, which will drive the asset towards February 22 high at 0.6220, followed by January 11 high at 0.6260.

    NZD/USD hourly chart

     

  • 27.02.2024 04:52
    NZD/USD hangs near weekly low, looks to US data ahead of RBNZ on Wednesday
    • NZD/USD drifts lower for the second straight day and drops to a one-week low on Tuesday.
    • Retreating US bond yields undermines the USD and helps limit the downside for the major.
    • Traders look to the US macro data for a fresh impetus ahead of the RBNZ on Wednesday.

    The NZD/USD pair remains under some selling pressure for the second straight day on Tuesday and drops to a one-week low, around mid-0.6100s during the Asian session. Spot prices, however, recover a few pips from the daily trough in the wake of a modest US Dollar (USD) downtick and currently trade around the 0.6165 region, down just over 0.10% for the day.

    The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, remains depressed amid a fresh leg down in the US Treasury bond yields, which, in turn, helps limit the downside for the NZD/USD pair. Any meaningful downfall for the USD, however, still seems elusive as investors now seem convinced that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates higher for longer on the back of sticky inflation and a still-resilient US economy.

    The Fed's hawkish outlook should act as a tailwind for the US bond yields and the buck, warranting caution before positioning for the resumption of the NZD/USD pair's recent strong move up witnessed over the past two weeks or so, from sub-0.6100 levels. Traders might also prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the key central bank event risk – the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) policy decision, scheduled to be announced on Wednesday.

    In the meantime, traders on Tuesday will take cues from the US macro data– Durable Goods Orders, the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index and the Richmond Manufacturing Index. The focus, however, will remain glued to the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index on Thursday, which should influence the Fed's future policy decisions. This, in turn, will provide a fresh impetus to the USD and the NZD/USD pair.

     

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