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CFD Trading Rate Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar (GBPUSD)

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Ask
Change (%)
Date/Time (GMT 0)
Over the past 10 days
Date Rate Change

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  • 28.03.2024 12:17
    GBP/USD: Gains through 1.2640/1.2650 resistance needed to give Cable an additional lift from here – Scotiabank

    GBP/USD holds support below 1.2600. Economists at Scotiabank analyze the pair’s outlook.

    Cable based around 1.2590/1.2600

    Markets continue to reflect the expectation that the BoE will hold off until August before easing. Rate expectations are perhaps providing the GBP with a bit of a cushion against the USD’s advance.

    Sterling has rebounded modestly from the earlier session low. The GBP/USD pair based around 1.2590/1.2600, effectively a retest of the 200-Day Moving Average where Cable has found support in the recent past. 

    Gains through 1.2640/1.2650 resistance are needed to give the GBP an additional lift from here, however.

     

  • 28.03.2024 06:10
    GBP/USD Price Analysis: The next downside target is located at the 1.2600–1.2605 region
    • GBP/USD trades on a softer note below the mid-1.2600s on Thursday ahead of UK GDP growth numbers data. 
    • The pair keeps the bearish vibe below the key EMA; RSI indicator holds below the 50 midlines. 
    • The immediate resistance level will emerge at 1.2655; the initial support level is located at the 1.2600–1.2605 zone.

    The GBP/USD pair remains on the defensive around 1.2630 on Thursday during the early European trading hours. The hawkish tone from Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller early Thursday has lifted the US Dollar (USD) broadly, which creates a headwind for the GBP/USD pair. 

    The Fed’s Waller said the US central bank is in no rush to cut the benchmark rate and may need to “maintain the current rate target for longer than expected. Traders await the final UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth number for Q4 on Thursday, which is projected to contract 0.3% QoQ in Q4. 

    From a technical perspective, GBP/USD maintains the bearish outlook unchanged as the major pair holds below the key 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the four-hour chart. The downward momentum is confirmed by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which lies below the 50 midlines, supporting the sellers for the time being.

    The first upside barrier for GBP/USD will emerge near the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band at 1.2655. A break above the latter will expose the 100-period EMA at 1.2685. Further north, the next hurdle is seen near a high of March 18 at 1.2746, followed by the psychological level of 1.2800. 

    On the flip side, the initial support level of the major pair is located near the lower limit of the Bollinger Band at the 1.2600-1.2605 region. A breach of this level will pave the way to a low of March 22 at 1.2575. The next contention level to watch is a low of February 14 at 1.2535, en route to the 1.2500 round figure. 

    GBP/USD four-hour chart

    GBP/USD

    Overview
    Today last price 1.2632
    Today Daily Change -0.0009
    Today Daily Change % -0.07
    Today daily open 1.2641
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 1.2719
    Daily SMA50 1.2679
    Daily SMA100 1.2649
    Daily SMA200 1.2591
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 1.2641
    Previous Daily Low 1.2606
    Previous Weekly High 1.2804
    Previous Weekly Low 1.2575
    Previous Monthly High 1.2773
    Previous Monthly Low 1.2518
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.2628
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.2619
    Daily Pivot Point S1 1.2617
    Daily Pivot Point S2 1.2593
    Daily Pivot Point S3 1.2581
    Daily Pivot Point R1 1.2653
    Daily Pivot Point R2 1.2665
    Daily Pivot Point R3 1.2688

     

     

     

  • 27.03.2024 23:33
    GBP/USD attracts some sellers below 1.2620 on Fed Waller’s hawkish comments
    • GBP/USD remains under pressure around 1.2614 following hawkish comments from Fed’s official on Thursday. 
    • Fed’s Waller said there is no rush to cut the rate and may need to maintain the current rate for longer than expected.
    • The dovish comments from BoE’s Bailey about rate cuts weigh on GBP. 
    • Investors will focus on the BoE's Mann speech, final UK Q4 GDP, and US GDP annualized data, due on Thursday. 

    The GBP/USD pair attracts some sellers to 1.2614 after retreating from a daily high of 1.2640 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The sell-off of the major pair is backed by recent hawkish comments from US Federal Reserve (Fed) official, affirming the higher-for-longer stance and no need to rush the rate cuts.

    Early Wednesday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that the US central bank is in no rush to cut the benchmark rate and may need to “maintain the current rate target for longer than expected.” Waller emphasized that the Fed is in no rush to cut the policy rate as it’s prudent to hold its restrictive stance for longer than previously expected to bring down inflation to the 2% target. His hawkish comments boost the Greenback higher to 104.45 and weigh on the major pair. 

    On the other hand, the Bank of England (BoE) held the interest rate unchanged at 5.25% for the fifth meeting in a row last week. The UK central bank turned dovish on the interest rate outlook, and this has exerted some selling pressure on the Pound Sterling (GBP). The BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said that interest rate cuts will be ‘in play’ at future BoE policy meetings.

    Market players will monitor the speech by BoE's C. Mann and the final UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth numbers for Q4 on Thursday. Any dovish comments from the BoE policymaker or the weaker-than-expected GDP number might extend the selling pressure on the GBP. On the US docket, the GDP annualized number, the weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will be due later in the day. 

    GBP/USD

    Overview
    Today last price 1.2618
    Today Daily Change -0.0010
    Today Daily Change % -0.08
    Today daily open 1.2628
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 1.272
    Daily SMA50 1.268
    Daily SMA100 1.2645
    Daily SMA200 1.2591
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 1.2668
    Previous Daily Low 1.2622
    Previous Weekly High 1.2804
    Previous Weekly Low 1.2575
    Previous Monthly High 1.2773
    Previous Monthly Low 1.2518
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.264
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.2651
    Daily Pivot Point S1 1.2611
    Daily Pivot Point S2 1.2594
    Daily Pivot Point S3 1.2565
    Daily Pivot Point R1 1.2657
    Daily Pivot Point R2 1.2686
    Daily Pivot Point R3 1.2703

     


     

  • 27.03.2024 19:23
    GBP/USD stays firm against US Dollar on quieter market conditions
    • GBP/USD edges up to 1.2632, navigating through thin liquidity and a light economic calendar on both sides of the Atlantic.
    • US Durable Goods Orders exceed expectations, while consumer concerns over inflation temper consumer confidence.
    • Market focus on Fed Governor Waller's upcoming speech and core PCE inflation data for potential rate cut insights.

    The Pound Sterling clings to gains of 0.05% against the US Dollar after hitting a daily low of 1.2605. Thin liquidity conditions prevail in the financial markets amid a shortened week in observance of Good Friday. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD trades at 1.2632.

    GBP/USD maintains slight gains in subdued trading, with investors awaiting key speeches and inflation data

    The economic docket on both sides of the Atlantic remains scarce, though the latest data from the United States (US) witnessed Durable Goods Orders rising 1.4% in February, above estimates of 1.1%. Other data showed that US consumer confidence missed estimates of 107, coming at 104.7 in March. Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board, commented, “Consumers remained concerned with elevated price levels, which predominated write-in responses.”

    Later, the Fed Governor Christopher Waller is expected to cross newswires at around 22:00 GMT. In Waller’s last speech, he said the Fed is in no rush to cut rates, which has sponsored a repricing of a less dovish Fed, as shown by the CME FedWatch Tool. Money markets see 70% odds for a 25 basis points interest rate cut by the Fed in June.

    Aside from this, GBP/USD traders are eyeing the release  of the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index. If inflation edges lower, that could fuel rate cut speculations of the Fed, but the figures must be taken with a pinch of salt as Fed Chair Jerome Powell would speak at 15:30 GMT.

    Across the pond, traders are eyeing the release of the latest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for Q4 on Thursday, along wth the Current Account numbers for the same period.

    GBP/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook

    The GBP/USD pair has printed back-to-back spinning tops candles, suggesting indecision amongst investors. On the upside, the 100-day moving average (DMA) at 1.2639 caps the rallies of the Sterling, while the 200-DMA at 1.2589 acts as strong dynamic support for buyers. For a bullish resumption, a breach of the 100-DMA could expose the 50-DMA at 1.2678 before testing 1.2700. On the flip side, if sellers reclaim 1.2600 and the 200-DMA, look for a test of 1.2505, the November 14 high turned support.

    GBP/USD

    Overview
    Today last price 1.2632
    Today Daily Change 0.0004
    Today Daily Change % 0.03
    Today daily open 1.2628
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 1.272
    Daily SMA50 1.268
    Daily SMA100 1.2645
    Daily SMA200 1.2591
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 1.2668
    Previous Daily Low 1.2622
    Previous Weekly High 1.2804
    Previous Weekly Low 1.2575
    Previous Monthly High 1.2773
    Previous Monthly Low 1.2518
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.264
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.2651
    Daily Pivot Point S1 1.2611
    Daily Pivot Point S2 1.2594
    Daily Pivot Point S3 1.2565
    Daily Pivot Point R1 1.2657
    Daily Pivot Point R2 1.2686
    Daily Pivot Point R3 1.2703

     

     

  • 27.03.2024 12:26
    GBP/USD: More range trading in Cable in the short run – Scotiabank

    GBP/USD trades flat on the day after failing to hold gains to the upper 1.2600s. Economists at Scotiabank analyze the pair’s outlook.

    Support is 1.2600, resistance is 1.2665

    The GBP/USD pair failed to generate much lift and Cable’s intraday peak around 1.2665/1.2770 on Tuesday morning may have set a short-term ceiling for Cable after Monday’s push higher. 

    More range trading looks likely in the short run.

    Support is 1.2600/1.2610. Resistance is 1.2665/1.2675.

    See: USD to remain resilient, downside risks to the GBP in the months ahead – HSBC

  • 27.03.2024 05:15
    GBP/USD Price Analysis: Could test the level of 1.2600, next support at March’s low
    • GBP/USD could break the psychological support of the 1.2600 level to revisit March’s low at 1.2575.
    • Technical analysis suggests the bearish sentiment to test the major support of the 1.2550 level.
    • The resistance zone could be found around the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.2650 level and the nine-day EMA at 1.2668.

    GBP/USD extends its losses for the second consecutive day, depreciating to near 1.2620 during the Asian session on Wednesday. The pair could test the psychological support level of 1.2600. If this level is breached, it could prompt the pair to revisit March’s low at 1.2575.

    The technical analysis of the GBP/USD pair suggests a bearish trend. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned below 50, indicating a bearish sentiment. Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) confirms the bearish trend, as the MACD line is below the centerline and exhibits divergence below the signal line.

    The bearish sentiment could influence the GBP/USD pair to test the major support of 1.2550 level, followed by February’s low of 1.2518.

    On the upside, the GBP/USD pair could meet the major barrier at 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.2650 level. A breakthrough above this barrier could exert upward support for the pair to test the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.2668.

    If the GBP/USD pair surpasses the latter, it could approach the psychological level of 1.2700.

    GBP/USD: Daily Chart

    GBP/USD

    Overview
    Today last price 1.2617
    Today Daily Change -0.0011
    Today Daily Change % -0.09
    Today daily open 1.2628
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 1.272
    Daily SMA50 1.268
    Daily SMA100 1.2645
    Daily SMA200 1.2591
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 1.2668
    Previous Daily Low 1.2622
    Previous Weekly High 1.2804
    Previous Weekly Low 1.2575
    Previous Monthly High 1.2773
    Previous Monthly Low 1.2518
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.264
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.2651
    Daily Pivot Point S1 1.2611
    Daily Pivot Point S2 1.2594
    Daily Pivot Point S3 1.2565
    Daily Pivot Point R1 1.2657
    Daily Pivot Point R2 1.2686
    Daily Pivot Point R3 1.2703

     

     

  • 27.03.2024 00:31
    GBP/USD drifts lower to 1.2620, UK GDP data looms
    • GBP/USD trades softer around 1.2630 in Wednesday’s early Asian session. 
    • The US Durable Goods Orders rose 1.4% in February against a 6.9% fall in January, better than expected. 
    • BoE’s Mann dampened expectations for large interest rate cuts this year.

    The GBP/USD pair edges lower to 1.2620 during the early Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The major pair remains capped under the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Many Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers stick to their path of interest-rate cuts amid the bumpy road to inflation and expect to cut rates three times in 2024, which might weigh on the Greenback. On Thursday, the US and UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data will be released. 

    Despite recent monthly inflation increases, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last week that pricing pressures would continue to ease and that it may be appropriate to cut interest rates later this year. The majority of US central bank officials expect to cut rates three times in 2024. These remarks push the Fed's stance more dovish and drag the US Dollar (USD) lower in recent sessions. 

    About the data, the US Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence fell to 104.7 from a downwardly revised 104.8 in February. Meanwhile, the Durable Goods Orders for February came in better than market expectations, rising 1.4% in February from a 6.9% fall in January. The US Dollar Index (DXY) consolidates around 104.30 following the release of US economic data as traders await fresh clues from the US February Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) data on Friday.

    On the other hand, the Bank of England's (BoE) Catherine Mann, one of the BOE's most hawkish policymakers, warned that financial markets are expecting too many interest rate cuts this year and that the BoE is unlikely to move before the US Fed. "I think they're pricing in too many cuts," Mann said. Traders will take more cues from UK GDP growth numbers on Thursday, which are estimated to contract 0.3% QoQ and 0.2% YoY in the fourth quarter. In the case of stronger-than-expected GDP growth number data, the Pound Sterling (GBP) could gain traction and act as a tailwind for the GBP/USD pair.

    GBP/USD

    Overview
    Today last price 1.2624
    Today Daily Change -0.0004
    Today Daily Change % -0.03
    Today daily open 1.2628
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 1.272
    Daily SMA50 1.268
    Daily SMA100 1.2645
    Daily SMA200 1.2591
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 1.2668
    Previous Daily Low 1.2622
    Previous Weekly High 1.2804
    Previous Weekly Low 1.2575
    Previous Monthly High 1.2773
    Previous Monthly Low 1.2518
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.264
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.2651
    Daily Pivot Point S1 1.2611
    Daily Pivot Point S2 1.2594
    Daily Pivot Point S3 1.2565
    Daily Pivot Point R1 1.2657
    Daily Pivot Point R2 1.2686
    Daily Pivot Point R3 1.2703

     

     

  • 26.03.2024 15:38
    GBP/USD: Seasonals bullish in April – SocGen

    April seasonality is typically bullish Sterling (GBP), economists at  Société Générale say.

    Seasonality in April is typically bearish EUR/GBP

    Sterling retraced against the Dollar and the Euro after two of the nine-member MPC committee threw in the towel on rate hikes and voted with the majority for no change. The shift could prove a watershed and opens the door to a rate cut in the coming months. 

    The pullback in GBP/USD attracted buyers right on the 200-DMA (1.2591). This could be the prelude to a rally back over 1.2800 towards 1.3000 if seasonality is a guide. April ranks among the best months of the year for the Pound thanks to the repatriation by corporates of overseas FX for dividend payments. The average percentage monthly gain of the last ten years in April is 0.8%. The standard deviation is 2.2%. 

    Seasonality in April is also typically bearish EUR/GBP.

     

  • 26.03.2024 05:51
    GBP/USD Price Analysis: Holds position below the major level of 1.2650
    • GBP/USD could meet the immediate barrier at 23.6% Fibonacci and a major level of 1.2650.
    • Technical analysis suggests a confirmation of a bearish momentum for the pair.
    • The key support could be met around the psychological support level of 1.2600.

    GBP/USD attempts to continue gaining ground, advancing to near 1.2640 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The pair could meet the immediate resistance at 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and a major level at 1.2650.

    A breakthrough above the latter could exert upward support for the GBP/USD pair to test the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.2681. Should the pair surpass these levels, it may approach the psychological barrier of the 1.2700 level.

    The technical analysis of the GBP/USD pair shows that the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned below 50. This indicates a bearish trend for the GBP/USD pair. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), a lagging indicator, suggests a bearish confirmation for the pair. The MACD line is situated below the centerline but shows divergence below the signal line.

    On the downside, the GBP/USD pair may test the psychological support level of 1.2600. If this level is breached, it could prompt the pair to revisit March’s low at 1.2575, followed by the significant level of 1.2550.

    GBP/USD: Daily Chart

     

     

  • 26.03.2024 02:24
    GBP/USD edges higher amid softer USD, upside potential seems limited
    • GBP/USD attracts some buyers for the second straight day, albeit lacks bullish conviction.
    • Rising bets for an imminent interest rate cut by the BoE continue to cap gains for the GBP.
    • The Fed’s projected three rate cuts in 2024 keep the USD on the defensive and lend support.

    The GBP/USD pair trades with a mild positive bias during the Asian session on Tuesday, albeit lacks follow-through buying and remains below mid-1.2600s, or the overnight swing high. The fundamental backdrop, meanwhile, favours bearish traders and warrants some caution before positioning for an extension of the recent bounce from the 1.2475 area, or a five-week low touched last Friday.

    The Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey said last week that expectations of interest rate cuts this year were not unreasonable. This comes after two BoE policymakers, who previously voted for higher rates, changed their positions to keep borrowing costs steady at 5.25%, which might continue to undermine the British Pound (GBP). The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, stalls the previous day's corrective pullback from the vicinity of the monthly peak amid the optimistic outlook for the US economy. This further contributes to capping the upside for the GBP/USD pair.

    Moreover, several Fed officials expressed concern about sticky inflation and stronger-than-expected US macro data. In fact, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic expects the US economy and inflation to slow gradually and anticipates only one rate cut this year. Separately, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that the US central bank needs to see progress in inflation and strike a balance with its dual mandate. Meanwhile, Fed Governor Lisa Cook said that there are risks to easing policy too much or too soon as well as too late as the path of disinflation has been bumpy and uneven.

    The Fed, however, had signalled last week that it remains on track to cut interest rates by 75 basis points this year, which acts as a headwind for the US Treasury bond yields. This, along with the underlying bullish tone around the equity markets, might hold back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets around the safe-haven Greenback and lend some support to the GBP/USD pair. Market participants now look to the US economic docket – featuring Durable Goods Orders, the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index and the Richmond Manufacturing Index– for a fresh impetus.

    GBP/USD

    Overview
    Today last price 1.2643
    Today Daily Change 0.0006
    Today Daily Change % 0.05
    Today daily open 1.2637
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 1.2722
    Daily SMA50 1.268
    Daily SMA100 1.2642
    Daily SMA200 1.2592
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 1.2652
    Previous Daily Low 1.2592
    Previous Weekly High 1.2804
    Previous Weekly Low 1.2575
    Previous Monthly High 1.2773
    Previous Monthly Low 1.2518
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.2629
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.2615
    Daily Pivot Point S1 1.2602
    Daily Pivot Point S2 1.2567
    Daily Pivot Point S3 1.2541
    Daily Pivot Point R1 1.2662
    Daily Pivot Point R2 1.2688
    Daily Pivot Point R3 1.2723

     

     

  • 25.03.2024 18:36
    GBP/USD recovers amid rate cut rumblings in the UK and US
    • GBP/USD rises to 1.2639, lifted by speculation over Federal Reserve's potential rate cut in June.
    • Fed officials offer varied views on policy direction, contributing to the Dollar's subdued performance.
    • UK economic indicators and BoE Governor's rate cut hints set the stage for a cautious market outlook.

    The Pound Sterling stages a mild recovery against the US Dollar in the mid-North American session, as the Greenback remains offered amid speculations the Federal Reserve would cut rates in June. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD trades at 1.2639. gains 0.32%.

    GBP/USD edges higher as mixed Fed outlook and looming BoE rate cuts stir currency markets.

    US economic docket failed to boost the US Dollar, which treads water against most G7 currencies. Three Federal Reserve officials crossed the wires, with Bostic and Cook advocating for a cautious approach, emphasizing the risks of easing policy prematurely, whereas Goolsbee, although also cautious, sees room for more aggressive action pending clear evidence of inflationary declines.

    On the data front, the US housing market saw a slight decline in New Home Sales for February, dropping by 0.3% month-over-month from 0.664 million to 0.662 million units. Elsewhere, the Chicago Fed announced the National Activity Index saw improvement, moving from -0.54 to 0.05, with positive developments across all four index categories.

    Across the pond, the UK CBI Distributive Trades Survey figures showed the monthly retail sales balance rose in March from a -7 reading a year ago, to 2. With this data out of the way, GBP/USD traders are eyeing the release of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q4 2023. Expectations sees the economy confirming a technical recession, as the preliminary GDP fell -0.3% QoQ following a fall of -0.1% in Q3.

    That data, along with the dovish remarks of Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey, who said that rate cuts are “in play” in an interview with the Financial Times (FT), weighed on the GBP. Money market futures estimates see a 75% chance of a rate cut by the BoE in June, up from 35% at the beginning of last week.

    GBP/USD Price Analysis:  Technical outlook

    Given the fundamental backdrop, the GBP/USD is forming a ‘bullish harami’ which suggests further ipside is seen. Nevertheless, a break above the 50-day moving average (DMA)  of 1.2679 is needed, to confirm the reversal pattern. That would expose 1.2700, followed by the March 21 high at 1.2803. On the other hand, if the major slips below the 200-DMA at 1.2591, that would negate the chart pattern, as the pair could extend its losses.

    GBP/USD

    Overview
    Today last price 1.2638
    Today Daily Change 0.0036
    Today Daily Change % 0.29
    Today daily open 1.2602
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 1.2725
    Daily SMA50 1.2682
    Daily SMA100 1.2639
    Daily SMA200 1.2593
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 1.2675
    Previous Daily Low 1.2575
    Previous Weekly High 1.2804
    Previous Weekly Low 1.2575
    Previous Monthly High 1.2773
    Previous Monthly Low 1.2518
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.2614
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.2637
    Daily Pivot Point S1 1.256
    Daily Pivot Point S2 1.2518
    Daily Pivot Point S3 1.246
    Daily Pivot Point R1 1.2659
    Daily Pivot Point R2 1.2717
    Daily Pivot Point R3 1.2759

     

     

  • 25.03.2024 15:12
    GBP/USD gets a pick-me-up after last week’s heavy selling
    • GBP/USD recovers after steep sell-off takes it to 1.2600s. 
    • Brighter UK retail sales data helps improve the outlook for the Pound Sterling. 
    • BoE and Fed divergence on interest rate outlook, however, is a depresser for the pair. 

    GBP/USD saw a fillip on Monday, rising by almost four tenths of a percent to the mid 1.2600s on a mixture of better-than-expected UK retail sales data, profit taking after the recent steep sell-off and the US Dollar (USD) being broadly sold following intervention by authorities to prop up their currencies in Asia. 

    GBP/USD gets some support by UK retail sales 

    GBP/USD got some relief from the CBI Distributive Trades Survey figures showed the monthly retail sales balance climbed to plus two points in March from a reading of minus seven points a year ago, in March 2023. 

    The positive data published by the Confederation of British Industry (CBI), came after ten months of declines, suggesting the retail climate in the UK was improving. 

    The data comes after official UK Retail Sales volumes data from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) beat expectations in February and were revised up in January. 

    The data indicates Q1 will probably be stronger for the UK economy than had previously been predicted which is likely to help underpin the Pound Sterling (GBP). 

    "Retail sales volumes are on track to rebound strongly in Q1, helping the economy leave last year’s recession behind, as falling inflation boosts consumer spending power," says Rob Wood, Chief UK Economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, as quoted by Poundsterlinglive.com.

    The data was all the more impressive given February was the wettest since 1836, added Wood. 

    Even if Retail Sales remain flat in March, they will still show a 1.7% gain quarter-on-quarter, according to the economist. 

    The data suggests the UK economy could be turning around after falling into a technical recession in Q4 and that the Bank of England (BoE) will not be in such a hurry to lower interest rates as may currently be expected. Maintaining higher interest rates would be positive for GBP as higher interest rates attract greater inflows of foreign capital. 

    GBP/USD suffers from diverging interest rate expectations

    GBP/USD weakened substantially following the March BoE policy meeting on Thursday after it was revealed that the last remaining member of the board of governors holding out for interest rate hikes, Catherine Mann, had shifted allegiance. This left zero members voting for a rate hike, eight for leaving rates unchanged and one for cutting rates. It was viewed as indicative of a decisive shift in the BoE and a canary-in-the-coalmine warning of rate cuts on the horizon. 

    The US Dollar, meanwhile, has been supported by expectations shifting in the opposite direction – that of holding interest rates at their current elevated level, as US inflation data continues to surprise to the upside. Although the Federal Reserve (Fed) stuck to its earlier view that it would cut rates three times in 2024 at the March meeting, it revised up most of its economic metrics such as GDP, suggesting a risk it might not follow through with the cuts. 

    On Monday, Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said he advocated a slow approach to lowering interest rates and only expected the Fed to make one rate cut in 2024. 

    Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook also urged caution, arguing that the Fed needed to take a “careful approach” to easing over time to “ensure inflation returns sustainably to 2.0%.” 

    The rate-setter who was previously in favor of rate hikes in the UK, Catherine Mann,  but who chose to change her mind at the last BoE meeting, is currently speaking although she has not been reported as saying anything market moving at time of publication.

     

  • 25.03.2024 12:11
    GBP/USD: Gains could extend a little more in the short run – Scotiabank

    GBP/USD rebounds from near recent lows just under 1.2600. Economists at Scotiabank analyze the pair’s outlook.

    Support on dips to the upper 1.2500s has been consistent recently

    Sterling’s rebound from Friday’s low (a little below the 200-DMA at 1.2592) looks a bit more meaningful than many of its peers on the day so far.

    Price signals are not obviously bullish on the intraday chart and trend momentum signals are aligned bearishly against the GBP on the intraday and daily oscillators. Still, support for the GBP on dips to the upper 1.2500s has been consistent recently and corrective gains in the Pound could extend a little more in the short run. Look for resistance around 1.2665/1.2675, however.

    Support is 1.2590/1.2600.

     

  • 25.03.2024 08:02
    GBP/USD rebounds on subdued US Dollar, inches higher to near 1.2600
    • GBP/USD gains ground as the Greenback weakens on speculations of a Fed rate cut in June.
    • The higher US Treasury yields could have provided support for the US Dollar.
    • Fitch Ratings revised the UK's sovereign credit outlook to stable from negative last Friday, affirming its sovereign credit rating at AA-.

    GBP/USD snaps a two-day losing streak, retracing recent losses and trading near 1.2600 during the early European session on Monday. The decline in the US Dollar (USD) appears to be the catalyst underpinning the GBP/USD pair.

    The dovish sentiment surrounding the Federal Reserve's stance on the trajectory of interest rates, with market sentiment leaning towards the Fed initiating interest rate cuts starting in June, is weakening the US Dollar.

    The US Dollar Index (DXY) declines to near 104.30 as the 2-year and 10-year yields on US Treasury bonds hold at 4.60% and 4.21%, respectively, by the press time. The US Dollar (USD) fails to cheer the uptick in US Treasury yields.

    Fitch Ratings revised the United Kingdom's sovereign credit outlook to stable from negative last Friday, affirming its sovereign credit rating at AA-. The revision came after the country's economy rebounded to growth in January from a shallow recession in the second half of 2023, boosted by a resurgence in retail sales and housing.

    UK Retail Sales came in better than expectations, remaining flat in February. This figure was above the market consensus of a 0.3% decline and suggested a positive sign for the economy. Market participants will likely monitor the release of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the fourth quarter of 2023 from the United Kingdom (UK) and the United States (US) on Thursday.

    GBP/USD

    Overview
    Today last price 1.2603
    Today Daily Change 0.0001
    Today Daily Change % 0.01
    Today daily open 1.2602
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 1.2725
    Daily SMA50 1.2682
    Daily SMA100 1.2639
    Daily SMA200 1.2593
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 1.2675
    Previous Daily Low 1.2575
    Previous Weekly High 1.2804
    Previous Weekly Low 1.2575
    Previous Monthly High 1.2773
    Previous Monthly Low 1.2518
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.2614
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.2637
    Daily Pivot Point S1 1.256
    Daily Pivot Point S2 1.2518
    Daily Pivot Point S3 1.246
    Daily Pivot Point R1 1.2659
    Daily Pivot Point R2 1.2717
    Daily Pivot Point R3 1.2759

     

     

  • 25.03.2024 04:35
    GBP/USD holds positive ground above the 1.2600 mark, investors await Fed, BoE policymakers' speech
    • GBP/USD snaps the two-day losing streak near 1.2605 on the weaker USD.
    • The UK Retail Sales remained flat in February, better than the estimation of a 0.3% decline.
    • The rising speculation the Fed would start cutting rates in June might cap the upside of the Greenback.

    The GBP/USD pair holds positive ground above the 1.2600 psychological support during the early European session on Monday. The major pair rebounds amid the softer US Dollar (USD) and lower US Treasury bond yields. Investors await the release of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from the UK and US on Thursday for fresh catalysts. At the press time, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2605, adding 0.03% on the day.

    Data released from the Office for National Statistics on Friday reported that UK Retail Sales came in better than expectations, remaining flat in February. This figure was above the market consensus of a 0.3% decline and suggested a good sign for the economy since the UK entered a technical recession after two consecutive quarters of economic contraction in the second half of last year. Market participants will take more cues from UK GDP growth numbers on Thursday, which is estimated to contract 0.3% QoQ and 0.2% YoY in the fourth quarter. The stronger-than-expected data might boost the Pound Sterling (GBP) and act as a tailwind for the GBP/USD pair.

    On the other hand, the renewed bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would start cutting the interest rate in June might cap the upside of the Greenback. The Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated last week that policymakers plan to cut rates before the end of this year, given that economic growth continues. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, Federal Funds Futures have priced in 74.5% odds that the Fed will cut rates in the June meeting.

    Market players will watch the Chicago Fed National Activity Index and US New Home Sales for February on Monday. Additionally, Fed’s Raphael Bostic and BoE’s Catherine Mann are set to speak later in the day. On Thursday, the UK and US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth numbers reports will be in the spotlight. These events could give a clear direction to the GBP/USD pair.

    GBP/USD

    Overview
    Today last price 1.2607
    Today Daily Change 0.0005
    Today Daily Change % 0.04
    Today daily open 1.2602
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 1.2725
    Daily SMA50 1.2682
    Daily SMA100 1.2639
    Daily SMA200 1.2593
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 1.2675
    Previous Daily Low 1.2575
    Previous Weekly High 1.2804
    Previous Weekly Low 1.2575
    Previous Monthly High 1.2773
    Previous Monthly Low 1.2518
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.2614
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.2637
    Daily Pivot Point S1 1.256
    Daily Pivot Point S2 1.2518
    Daily Pivot Point S3 1.246
    Daily Pivot Point R1 1.2659
    Daily Pivot Point R2 1.2717
    Daily Pivot Point R3 1.2759

     

     

  • 22.03.2024 12:25
    GBP/USD: A retest of the low/mid-1.2500 zone looks likely – Scotiabank

    GBP/USD remains weak. Economists at Scotiabank analyze the pair’s outlook.

    Price action retains a soft look

    Sterling remains soft, with market sentiment still quite sour after Thursday’s BoE policy decision. Rates were left on hold, as expected, but the voting split (showing the MPC’s two more hawkish members recalibrating their vote to hold, from hike) has lifted speculation that lower rates may come sooner rather than later. Market betting on a June hike has perked up but a full cut is still not priced into OIS until August.

    Daily trend support has broken (now resistance near 1.2690) and spot is testing its 200-DMA (1.2593). A retest of the low/mid-1.2500 zone looks likely.

     

  • 21.03.2024 23:03
    GBP/USD remains under selling pressure above the mid-1.2700s, UK Retail Sales data eyed
    • GBP/USD edges lower to 1.2658 amid the weaker USD. 
    • The US S&P Global Composite PMI arrived at 52.2 in March vs. 52.5 in February.
    • The BoE maintained its interest rates unchanged at 5.25% on Thursday.
    • UK February Retail Sales will be due on Friday, which is forecast to fall 0.3% in February. 

    The GBP/USD pair faces rejection near the 1.2700 mark and holds above the mid-1.2700s during the early Asian session on Friday. The downtick of the major pair is backed by the stronger US Dollar (USD) and the dovish tilt of the Bank of England (BoE). Investors await the UK Retail Sales for fresh impetus, which is expected to fall 0.3% in February. GBP/USD currently trades near 1.2658, down 0.02% on the day. 

    The BoE kept the interest rate unchanged at 5.25% at its March meeting on Thursday, as widely anticipated. The BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said that the economy is not at a point where the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) can lower interest rates, but the economy is moving along on the right track. Markets anticipate the UK central bank will need more evidence of moderating wage growth before beginning to cut rates. However, investors maintain bets on BoE rate cuts this year, and the dovish tilt by the BoE policymaker weighs on the Pound Sterling (GBP) and acts as a headwind for the GBP/USD pair. 

    On the other hand, the Fed held the rate steady at 5.25–5.50% at its March meeting on Wednesday, with the median FOMC projections retaining three cuts in 2024. The markets have priced in around 80% odds that the Fed will cut rates in June, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. 

    On Thursday, the US S&P Global Composite PMI came in at 52.2 in March from 52.5 in February. Meanwhile, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI improved to 52.5 from 52.2 in the previous reading, above the market consensus of 51.7. The Services PMI eased to 51.7 in March from the previous reading of 52.3, weaker than the estimation of 52.0. 

    Moving on, market players will focus on the UK February Retail Sales. Also, Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Michael Barr are set to speak on Friday. Traders will take cues from the data and find trading opportunities around the GBP/USD pair. 

    GBP/USD

    Overview
    Today last price 1.2658
    Today Daily Change -0.0128
    Today Daily Change % -1.00
    Today daily open 1.2786
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 1.2728
    Daily SMA50 1.2687
    Daily SMA100 1.2632
    Daily SMA200 1.2594
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 1.2787
    Previous Daily Low 1.2684
    Previous Weekly High 1.2865
    Previous Weekly Low 1.2725
    Previous Monthly High 1.2773
    Previous Monthly Low 1.2518
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.2748
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.2724
    Daily Pivot Point S1 1.2718
    Daily Pivot Point S2 1.265
    Daily Pivot Point S3 1.2615
    Daily Pivot Point R1 1.2821
    Daily Pivot Point R2 1.2855
    Daily Pivot Point R3 1.2923

     


     

  • 21.03.2024 19:21
    GBP/USD hits two-week low after BoE, Fed decisions
    • GBP/USD falls to 1.2659 after BoE's dovish stance.
    • BoE holds Bank Rate, hints at future cuts amid shifting views.
    • UK inflation drop fuels June BoE rate cut bets.
    • US Dollar bolstered by lower unemployment claims and economic strength.

    The Pound Sterling tumbles sharply against the US Dollar and prints a new two-week low following major central banks' monetary policy decisions. On Thursday, it was the Bank of England’s (boE) turn to deliver a dovish hold, spurring a U-turn in price action. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD trades at 1.2659, down 0.97%.

    Sterling erases Wednesday’s gains on BoE’s dovish pivot

    The BoE kept the Bank Rate at 5.25%, with a split vote of 8-1, with no officials expecting a rate hike, and one dissenter that voted for a rate cut. At the previous meeting, policymakers voted 6-3, with two members expecting a rate hike. Given the stance adjustment amongst policymakers, there’s growing consensus on the BoE that the current level of rates is tempering inflationary pressures.

    The latest inflation reports in the UK witnessed inflation dipping from 4% to 3.4%. Following the BoE’s decision, money markets are pricing a 75% chance of a rate cut in June, up from 65% earlier in the day.

    The Greenback recovered some lost ground following Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy decision. The FOMC kept rates unchanged and didn’t revise its rate cut expectations for 2024 despite printing back-to-back high inflation reports in the US. Regarding those reports, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell stated the road to lowering inflation to the Fed’s 2% goal would be bumpy.

    The US economic docket revealed that unemployment claims for the last week dipped from 212K to 210K, lower than the 215K estimated. Other data witnessed S&P Global Flash PMI final readings for March mixed, though manufacturing activity improved. Elsewhere, Existing Home Sales jumped from 4 million to 4.38 million, an increase of 9.5%.

    GBP/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook

    Given the fundamental outlook, the GBP/USD extended its losses and formed a large ‘bearish engulfing’ candle pattern, increasing the odds for further downside. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) dives further into bearish territory, while the 200-day moving average at 1.2592 is up for grabs. If sellers clear the psychological 1.2600 mark, followed by the 200-DMA, that could pave the way to test 1.2500. On the other hand, if buyers reclaim 1.2700, look for some consolidation.

    GBP/USD

    Overview
    Today last price 1.2655
    Today Daily Change -0.0131
    Today Daily Change % -1.02
    Today daily open 1.2786
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 1.2728
    Daily SMA50 1.2687
    Daily SMA100 1.2632
    Daily SMA200 1.2594
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 1.2787
    Previous Daily Low 1.2684
    Previous Weekly High 1.2865
    Previous Weekly Low 1.2725
    Previous Monthly High 1.2773
    Previous Monthly Low 1.2518
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.2748
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.2724
    Daily Pivot Point S1 1.2718
    Daily Pivot Point S2 1.265
    Daily Pivot Point S3 1.2615
    Daily Pivot Point R1 1.2821
    Daily Pivot Point R2 1.2855
    Daily Pivot Point R3 1.2923

     

     

  • 21.03.2024 14:12
    GBP/USD: Trend line support comes in near 1.2700, providing a nice entry level in the near term – TDS

    GBP/USD slid a bit on the BoE policy announcement, likely reflecting the shift in the voting bias. Economists at TD Securities analyze the Pound Sterling (GBP) outlook.

    Cable set to move to 1.3000 in Q2

    As universally expected, the MPC opted for a hold today, leaving Bank Rate at 5.25%. The vote was 8-1, with both Mann and Haskel switching to a hold vote. The language in the statement was broadly the same as in February, though we noted a slightly more dovish lean on inflation developments and a possible opening up for a May cut.

    We think markets were generally looking for something like a copy and paste job from the last meeting. In turn, the voting shift from 2/6/1 to 8/1 has likely disrupted some short-term positioning. That said, we would fade the knee-jerk reaction, as the second order effects of central banks cuts are likely more important than the cuts themselves for FX. Easing financial conditions and improving growth prospects should continue to weigh on the USD in Q2/Q3.

    For GBP/USD, we could see trend line support come in around 1.2700 in the near term. We would use dips as buying opportunities as we forecast a move to 1.3000 in Q2.

     

  • 21.03.2024 11:39
    GBP/USD: Dips to the low/mid 1.2700 area should find firm support – Scotiabank

    GBP/USD trades slightly lower. Economists at Scotiabank analyze the pair’s outlook.

    The GBP rise appears to have stalled

    Spot gains extended through the low 1.2700 area on Wednesday to lift the near-term technical tone for the GBP. But the GBP rise appears to have stalled – and may be reversing – from the test of 1.2800. 

    Intraday candle patterns suggest a minor top may have formed through European trade. GBP dips to the low/mid 1.2700 area should find firm support, however. 

    Resistance is 1.2810, ahead of a return to the 1.2900 zone. 

     

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