CFD Trading Rate Euro vs Japanese Yen (EURJPY)

• Even though daily chart indicators reveal weakening momentum, the overall trend remains positive.
• In the hourly chart, the RSI deep in the negative area implies sellers are in charge during the day's trading.
• To maintain momentum, the bulls need to defend the 20-day SMA.

In Thursday's session, the EUR/JPY pair is trading at around 163.40, experiencing a minor loss. The broader perspective leans in favor of the bulls, indicating buying strength that keeps the pair above its 20, 100, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). Despite this, there is evidence of mounting selling pressure on the daily chart.

On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) descended from nearing overbought conditions last week towards 54. The MACD histogram also indicates that buyer momentum might be waning, as inferred from the flat green bars. These market indicators suggest potential near-term volatility in the pair's direction.

EUR/JPY daily chart

Transitioning to the hourly chart, RSI readings convey a more negative sentiment. The latest value stands at 44, signaling sellers as dominant in the short-term movements. The MACD histogram, however, prints green bars which adds neutrality to the intraday outlook.

EUR/JPY hourly chart

In conclusion, despite the negative sentiment on the hourly chart, the daily and broader metrics suggest that bulls maintain control of the bigger picture. The main task fo the buyers is to defend the 20-day SMA at around 163.00 and as long as the pair remains above this level, the outlook will be positive.

• EUR/JPY trades on a softer note around 163.75 in Thursday’s early European session. 
• The verbal intervention from Japanese authorities provides some support to the JPY. 
• ECB’s Stoumaras said there is a growing consensus for a rate cut in June. 
• The German February Retail Sales data will be due later on Thursday. 

The EUR/JPY cross trades with a mild negative bias around 163.75 during the early European session on Thursday. The cross edges lower amid the fear of foreign exchange intervention from the Japanese authorities.  

On Thursday, Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yishimasa Hayashi said that he will not rule out any options against excessive foreign exchange moves and will closely watch it. This verbal intervention complied with top currency diplomat Masato Kanda statement that he will react to the disorderly FX moves. The fear of FX intervention from Japanese authorities might support the Japanese Yen (JPY) and limit the upside of the EUR/JPY cross in the near term. 

On the Euro front, the growing speculation that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut the interest rate in June acts as a headwind for the Euro (EUR) against the JPY. On Tuesday, ECB official Yannis Stoumaras said that there is a higher chance for a June rate cut, while Bank of Italy Governor Fabio Panetta said on Monday that the ECB is moving towards an interest rate cut as inflation is easing rapidly and approaching the 2% target. 

Looking ahead, traders will monitor German Retail Sales data, which is estimated to drop 0.8% YoY in February. Also, the German Unemployment Change and Italian Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released. On Friday, market players will turn their focus to the Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March. In the case of the stronger-than-expected data, this could lift the JPY against the EUR. 

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• Indicators on the daily chart signal a possible shift toward negative momentum.
• The hourly chart shows RSI and MACD somewhat recovering in negative territory.
• Bulls need to maintain the 20-day SMA securely to fend off further dips.

In Wednesday's session, EUR/JPY is trading with mild losses at 163.75. Despite uncertainties, the broader market sentiment appears to favor the buyers, given the pair's dominant position above its key Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) of 20,100 and 200 days. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicators signal an upcoming shift in momentum, hinting at increased strength in selling pressure.

On the daily chart indicators for the RSI remain in positive territory, with a downward trend which may signal a potential shift towards a negative trend. The MACD on the other hand, prints decreasing green bars, further reinforcing the weakened bullish momentum.

EUR/JPY daily chart

Regarding the hourly chart, the RSI values display a positive slope, signaling increased buying momentum. The lowest peak at 31 clearly shows that market sentiment has shifted to a bearish stance on Wednesday but in the meantime, indicators seem to be consolidating. Furthermore, the MACD) histogram's red bars confirm the presence of negative momentum.

EUR/JPY hourly chart

• EUR/JPY continues declining and has formed a bearish pattern called a Measured Move. 
• It is composed of three waves – wave C appears to be in mid development.
• The bearish 4-hour chart echoes weak technicals observed on the weekly chart.  

EUR/JPY is down over a third of a percent, trading in the 163.70s on Wednesday, on the back of a mixture of probable intervention by the Japanese authorities to strengthen the Japanese Yen (JPY) and more dovish commentary from rate-setters at the European Central Bank (ECB).  

The 4-hour chart is showing a bearish ABC Measured Move pattern forming which looks like it probably still has lower to go. 

Euro versus Japanese Yen: 4-hour chart

If wave C is the same length as wave A, which is often the case, the Measured Move could stretch down to a target situated at about 162.40, just below the 200-4hr Simple Moving Average (SMA). 

The pair has just completed a long red bearish Marubozu Japanese candlestick pattern which adds a further bearish tone to the chart. Even if there is a pullback after the sell-off it will probably only go as high as the midpoint of the Marubozu candle at 163.90 before probably continuing lower. 

The short-term trend remains unclear but a break below the lows of wave A at 163.32 would provide confirmation shifting the odds in favor of a downtrend and a continuation of wave C. 

The acute bearish divergence with the Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) on the Weekly chart as reported in a previous article, is further evidence supporting more downside.

• EUR/JPY gains ground as a possibility of market intervention by Japanese authorities.
• Japan’s Suzuki does not rule out responding to disorderly FX movements.
• The Euro may encounter pressure on the expectation of the ECB’s rate cut in June.

EUR/JPY moves back and forth with a negative tone as the Japanese Yen (JPY) is under selling pressure following the dovish tone of the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The EUR/JPY cross recovers intraday losses and trades around 164.10 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday.

However, the Japanese Yen has gained some ground after the comments made by the Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki. Suzuki stated that he closely monitors foreign exchange (FX) movements with a high sense of urgency and is not ruling out any steps, including "decisive steps," to respond to disorderly FX movements. Additionally, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda mentioned on Wednesday that household sentiment is improving due to expectations of wage hikes.

The Euro may encounter downward pressure amid increasing speculation for a rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) in June. ECB policymaker Madis Muller stated on Tuesday that the central bank is nearing a point where rate cuts could commence. Additionally, ECB official Yannis Stoumaras remarked that there is consensus for a rate cut in June.

Traders will likely monitor speeches from ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane and ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone on Wednesday, in addition to the European Commission’s Business Climate and Consumer Confidence data for March.

• EUR/JPY near 164.00, undecided post-Tenkan-sen rebound.
• Buyers claiming 164.82 and the pair may aim for 165.00.
• Falling below 164.00 could lead to 163.21, then 162.78 Kijun-Sen.

The EUR/JPY is virtually unchanged during the North American session, after hitting a two day high of 164.40, though sellers dragged the exchange rate near the Tuesday open. Hence, the cross pair trades at 164.09, almost flat.

EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Technical outlook

After falling from the year-to-date (YTD) high of 165.33, the EUR/JPY found support at around the Tenkan-sen level at 163.12 on Monday, sponsoring a leg-up toward the 164.00 area. Further upside is seen if traders clear the March 22 high of 164.82, ahead of the 165.00 figure.

On the flip side, if the pair extends its losses below 16400, look for a fall to the Tenkan-Sen at 163.21, followed by the 163.00 mark. A breach of the latter will exacerbate a dip to the Kijun-Sen at 162.78.

EUR/JPY Price Action – Daily Chart

• EUR/JPY posts modest gains around 164.10 in Tuesday’s early European session. 
• Some verbal intervention from Japanese authorities lifts the Japanese Yen. 
• ECB’s Panetta said the inflation trend was making a rate cut possible. 

The EUR/JPY cross trades with a mild bullish bias above the 164.00 mark during the early European session on Tuesday. The intervention warning from the Japanese authorities on Monday provides some support to the Japanese Yen (JPY) and might cap the cross’s upside in the near term. Traders will closely monitor the Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March, due on Friday. At press time, the cross is trading at 164.10, gaining 0.01% for the day. 

The Japanese Yen has dropped despite the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) raising interest rates last week, marking the first hike since 2007. However, Japan's Vice Minister of Finance for International Affairs, Masato Kanda made some verbal intervention on Monday, saying that he will take appropriate steps to respond to the excessive weakness of the Japanese Yen without excluding any measures. This, in turn, lifts the JPY and acts as a headwind for the EUR/JPY cross. 

On the other hand, traders increased their bets on rate cut expectations from the European Central Bank (ECB) after the Swiss National Bank (SNB) became the first major central bank to lower borrowing costs last week. The ECB policymaker Fabio Panetta stated on Monday that the central bank is moving towards an interest rate cut as inflation is falling rapidly and approaching the bank's 2% target. Meanwhile, ECB chief economist Philip Lane said that the ECB is more confident that wage growth is slowing back toward more normal levels, potentially opening the door to rate cuts. 

The German Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey for April is due on Tuesday, along with the ECB's Lane speech. Traders will watch the German February Retail Sales on Thursday. On Friday, the Japanese Tokyo CPI inflation data for March will be in the spotlight. 

• EUR/JPY dips to 163.59, marking consecutive losses after reaching peak levels not seen in 16 years.
• Technical indicators suggest potential for further retreat, with immediate support eyed at the 163.00 mark.
• A rebound towards 164.00 could rekindle momentum towards the year's high, with traders monitoring critical technical thresholds.

The EUR/JPY registered back-to-back losing sessions after hitting 16-year highs of 165.35. It dropped 0.64% in the mid-North American session and trades at 163.59. The market mood remains upbeat as Wall Street posts solid gains, but in the FX space, the Japanese Yen and the US Dollar remained bid.

EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Technical outlook

From a technical standpoint, the cross-pair is subdued after trading volatile during the last four days. However, a daily close below the March 20 low of 163.78 can sponsor a test of the 163.00 mark. The further weakness lies below the latter, as the Tenkan-Sen emerges at 162.82, followed by the Senkou Span A at 162.79 and the Kijun Sen at 162.78.

On the other hand, if EUR/JPY buyers move in and push prices toward 164.00, that could sponsor a leg up to 165.00, ahead of re-testing the year-to-date (YTD) high of 165.35.

EUR/JPY Price Action – Daily Chart

• EUR/JPY is showing acute bearish divergence on the weekly chart compared to 2023. 
• This indicates the potential for a pullback on the horizon. 
• A negative close next week would provide further evidence of a correction forming.

EUR/JPY is in a long-term uptrend distinguished by the rising peaks and troughs in price on the weekly chart.

The pair’s price has formed a bearish divergence with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) in the current week when compared with the similar high in November 2023. 

Euro versus Japanese Yen: Weekly chart

Divergence occurs when price reaches a higher high but the RSI fails to follow. It is a sign of underlying weakness in the asset price and a precursor to a possible correction. In the case of EUR/JPY the new multi-year high reached this week was not accompanied by a higher high in the RSI when compared with the high in November 2023. 

The divergence is quite acute suggesting a stronger possibility it could indicate a subsequent bearish pullback in price.  

A natural target for a pullback if it develops would be the red 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 157.080. 

If the next week is bearish that would add credence to the view there will be a correction signaled by the divergence.

• The daily RSI was rejected near the overbought region.
• Hourly chart indicators show a shift in short-term dynamics, with sellers gaining ground.
• Despite the signs of potential short-term bearish correction, the pair still holds above key SMAs, denoting an overall bullish trend.

The EUR/JPY pair shows slight losses of 0.26% during Thursday's session. Despite sporadic fluctuations, there is a largely upward trend, indicating a strong position for buyers. Yet, recent subtle signs of selling pressure hint at a potential challenge to the continuity of the bullish trend for the next sessions.

On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows an overall positive trend. However, imminent overbought conditions suggest a possible downward retracement could soon emerge as buyers may continue taking profits. In addition, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues to print green bars, suggesting a steady buying momentum

EUR/JPY daily chart

When examining the hourly chart, the RSI reveals some variability, with the latest reading at 47. This value is notably lower than the daily readings, suggesting that sellers might be gaining some ground in the short term. In addition, the MACD prints red bards which adds arguments to the growing selling pressure on the shorter timeframes.

EUR/JPY hourly chart

When analyzing with Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), the broader scale indicates that, despite a negative outlook in the short term, the pair maintains its position above the 20, 100, 200-day Simple Moving Averages, suggesting that, on a wider scope, the buyers are still firmly in control. However, if the technical correction extends below any of these levels the trend might slowly shift in favor of the seller.

• EUR/JPY trims gains near 165.15 amid renewed JPY demand. 
• The potential of another hike from BoJ before the end of the year lifts the Japanese Yen. 
• ECB's Lagarde said policymakers will consider cutting rates in June, as data available by June will confirm the path of inflation. 
• The German and Eurozone HCOB PMI for March are due on Thursday.

The EUR/JPY cross trades on a softer note above the 165.00 mark during the early European trading hours on Thursday. The downtick of the cross is supported by the possibility of another rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the fear of FX intervention from the Japanese authorities. Traders await the preliminary German and Eurozone HCOB Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for March for fresh impetus. At the press time, EUR/JPY is trading at 165.15, losing 0.03% on the day. 

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) hiked interest rates for the first time in 17 years on Tuesday, and investors are questioning if the BOJ will raise rates again this year and, if so, how much and how rapidly. Meanwhile, the Nikkei newspaper reported that an early rate hike allows for the potential of another hike before the end of the year. This, in turn, provides support for the Japanese Yen (JPY) against the Euro (EUR). 

Furthermore, the verbal intervention from the Japanese authorities might boost the JPY and cap the upside of the EUR/JPY in the near term. Early Thursday, Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said that he will watch foreign exchange moves with a high sense of urgency while adding that it's important for currencies to move in a stable manner. 

On the Euro front, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde stated on Wednesday that policymakers will consider cutting interest rates in the June meeting as data available by June will provide more insight into the inflation trajectory and the labor market condition. Money markets expect three rate cuts from the ECB by December, along with a potential fourth, according to Reuters. 

The HCOB Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) from Germany and the Eurozone is due on Thursday, followed by the German Buba Monthly Report. On Friday, the Japanese National Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February will be released. The Core CPI inflation ex Fresh Food is expected to show an increase of 2.8% in February from 2.0% in January. Traders will take cues from these events and find trading opportunities around the EUR/JPY cross. 

• EUR/JPY jumps to 164.50 amid uncertainty over BoJ’s holding the exit to negative interest rates.
• BoJ Ueda pledges to keep monetary policy accommodative for some time.
• ECB Lagarde is confident of gaining evidence that inflation will return to the 2% target.

The EUR/JPY rises to 164.50 in Wednesday’s early American session. The cross strengthens amid broad selling in the Japanese Yen after Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda didn’t provide guidance on future policy steps or the pace of policy normalization.

Apart from that, the BoJ pledges to keep its policy stance accommodative for the time being. The BoJ’s decision to exit its negative interest rate policy, along with the maintenance of an accommodative stance, indicates that the central bank is unsure that the wage growth cycle is strong enough to keep inflation sustainably above 2%.

Meanwhile, the Euro holds strength against the Japanese Yen despite European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde delivering a slight dovish guidance on interest rates. ECB Lagarde said “The latest wage data points in an encouraging direction.” This indicates that the wage growth is getting consistent with the pace required to bring down inflation to the 2% target. Slowing wage growth would deepen expectations for the ECB to begin reducing interest rates from the June policy meeting.

Apart from that, Lagarde’s confidence that the central bank will get evidence of inflation easing to 2% has increased speculation for interest rates reducing from June. ECB Lagarde said, “In the coming months, we expect to have two important pieces of evidence that could raise our confidence level sufficiently for a first policy move.”

• The EUR/JPY rallied in Tuesday’s session, seeing more than 1% gains.
• The daily RSI reveals growing buying momentum, deep in positive territory.
• The hourly chart hints at overbought conditions, and the RSI staying above 70 signals the potential for profit-taking sell-offs.

In Tuesday's session, the EUR/JPY pair is trading around the 164.00 region, marking a strong rally of 1.14%. The daily outlook is tilting in favor of the buyers while overbought conditions seen on the hourly chart suggest that consolidation is on the horizon.

On the daily chart, the pair exhibits increasing momentum, as indicated by the latest Relative Strength Index (RSI) values. Moving from negative territory, the recent RSI trajectory consolidated in positive territory, lately peaking at 65 which is approaching overbought status. Currently, buyers dominate the market, leading to the possibility of the pair moving into overbought conditions soon.

EUR/JPY daily chart

When examining the hourly chart, the EUR/JPY pair displays persistent overbought conditions. The RSI values consistently stay strong and above 70 which suggests intense buying pressure. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reinforces this bullish momentum with its rising green bars. However, these overbought conditions might soon provoke a downward correction as overbuying could lead to profit-taking sell-offs.

EUR/JPY hourly chart

Conclusively, both the daily and hourly charts indicate robust buying momentum. The positive outlook is further corroborated by the pair trading above the main Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) of 20, 100, and 200 days. Any downward correction which keeps the pair above these levels, won’t affect the overall bullish trend.

• EUR/JPY holds positive ground around 162.77 after the BoJ rate decision. 
• BoJ decided to end a negative interest rate era that began in 2016, in line with market expectations.
• ECB’s de Cos said the central bank may start cutting rates in June if inflation in the eurozone continues to ease.
• Investors will focus on the German and Eurozone ZEW Survey on Tuesday.

The EUR/JPY cross gains traction above the mid-162.00s during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The cross drifts higher after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) decided to end a negative interest rate era that began in 2016, in line with market expectations. At press time, EUR/JPY is trading at 162.77, adding 0.37% on the day. 

After the two-day monetary policy meeting on Tuesday, the BoJ decided to raise the interest rate by 10 basis points (bps) from -0.1% to 0% for the first time since 2007. The decision was in line with market expectations. The BoJ policy statement showed that, given the current outlook for economic activity and prices, the BoJ anticipates accommodative financial conditions to be maintained for the time being. In response to the interest rate decision, the Japanese Yen attracts some sellers as the hawkish policy was widely priced in by the markets.

The European Central Bank (ECB) held the interest rate steady at its March meeting. However, the ECB policymakers signaled progress in easing inflation and started discussions about the timeline of the rate cut. The ECB Pablo Hernandez de Cos said that the central bank may start lowering interest rates in June if inflation in the eurozone continues to cool down. The ECB Governing Council member Klaas Knot penciled in June for a first-rate cut and expects three rate cuts this year.

Moving on, market players will focus on the German and Eurozone ZEW Survey, due later on Tuesday. Later this week, the German Producer Price Index (PPI) and the ECB's Lagarde speech will be in focus on Wednesday. On Thursday, the Eurozone HCOB PMI data for March will be released. These events could give a clear direction to the EUR/JPY cross. 

• EUR/JPY trades flat at start of week as widely telegraphed BoJ price hike priced in. 
• Eurozone data shows trade surplus in January and final estimates of inflation matching flash. 
• Japanese Yen hampered by fears BoJ interest rate hike may be a “one and done” affair.
   

EUR/JPY is trading little changed in the mid 162.00s on Monday after recording a small rise following the release of relatively upbeat Eurozone figures, which showed the region recording a trade surplus in January, and the final revisions of February inflation data matching flash estimates. 

The Japanese Yen (JPY), meanwhile, trades subdued ahead of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) policy meeting on Tuesday. Although the BoJ is expected to raise interest rates from negative territory (minus 0.1%) at the meeting – a move that would be positive for JPY since higher interest rates attract more foreign capital inflows – the news appears to have already been digested by markets ahead of the event.  

The lack of more JPY buying in the run up to the meeting could be put down to the view that the rate hike may be a “one and done” rather than the start of a cycle. Deflation remains a hard nut to crack in Japan and although a recent round of wage negotiations has resulted in higher pay for workers, price gains have been hard won and some skepticism remains as to the longer-term inflation outlook, according to Bloomberg News. 

It may also be the case that stubbornly high inflation in the euro area is adjusting the outlook for interest rates there which is supporting the Euro (EUR). It is possible the European Central Bank (ECB) will need to keep interest rates higher for longer when compared to prior expectations, and this is supporting the Euro and EUR/JPY. 

The final revisions for the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices for the Eurozone on Monday were in line with flash estimates of 2.6% YoY and 0.6% MoM for headline inflation, and 3.1% YoY and 0.7% MoM for core inflation, according to data from Eurostat. These figures are still above the same metrics for Japan.

The non-seasonally adjusted Eurozone Trade Balance data showed a surplus of 11.4B in January versus the 16.8B of December, whilst the seasonally adjusted figures came out much higher, revealing a surplus in January of 28.1B against a deficit of 14.3B in December.

• EUR/JPY holds positive ground near 162.35 in Monday’s Asian session. 
• Several ECB policymakers expect the first rate cut in June meeting.
• Markets have different opinions on whether the BoJ will raise rates in March or in April.
• The Bank of Japan's (BoJ) monetary policy meeting on Tuesday will be a closely watched event for traders.

The EUR/JPY pair trades on a stronger note below the mid-162.00s during the Asian session on Monday. Investors increase their bets on the expectation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will end its ultra-dovish monetary policies in March or April. The Japanese central bank will announce its interest rate decision on Tuesday. At press time, EUR/JPY is trading at 162.35, losing 0.01% on the day.

Many European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers anticipate the first rate cut in its June meeting. ECB President Christine Lagarde signaled that June is the earliest it is likely to cut interest rates after the central bank lowered its forecasts for inflation and estimated it will reach its 2% target in 2025. Meanwhile, ECB Governing Council member Klaas Knot penciled in June for a first-rate cut and expects three rate cuts this year. ECB policymaker Yannis Stournaras stated the rate cuts as soon as July, with two more by the end of the year.

On the other hand, analysts have different opinions on whether the BoJ will raise rates in March or in April. In the case of a rate hike, the central bank is projected to raise the interest rates by 20 basis points (bps) to 0.1% from -0.1%. There is a likelihood that the BoJ will wait until April to raise the interest rate, with investors pricing in 39% odds that the BoJ will hike on Tuesday. Any dovish remarks from the Japanese policymakers might weigh on the Japanese Yen (JPY) and create a tailwind for the EUR/JPY cross. 

Looking ahead, market participants will focus on the Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and Trade Balance , due on Monday. The highlight on Tuesday will be the BoJ interest rate decision. Also, the ZEW Survey from Germany and the Eurozone will be due later on Tuesday. Traders will take cues from the data and find trading opportunities around the EUR/JPY cross. 

• The pair met strong resistance at the 20-day SMA, which in case of conquering it, will confirm a bullish bias.
• The daily chart indicators suggest a strengthening upward momentum with the RSI jumping above 50.
• The hourly RSI hovers in the overbought territory, a potential sign of short-term buyer exhaustion.

In Friday's session, EUR/JPY trades with gains at 162.27, marking a 0.54% rise in attempting to conquer the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). The bulls seemingly hold a strong grip, as the buying momentum appears to intensify. Yet, the sellers might come into action as the indicators flash overbought signs on the hourly signs.

Based on the indicators of the daily chart for the EUR/JPY pair, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved into positive territory, suggesting a stronger upward momentum. Meanwhile, the downturn of the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram prints shortening red bars, arguing in favor of a stronger bullish grip.

EUR/JPY daily chart

Turning to the hourly chart, the RSI seems to be hovering in the overbought territory. Despite a strong upward trend, this indicates potential exhaustion from the buyers. Similarly, the MACD's decreasing green bars might be signaling a shift in the tide, turning favor towards sellers for the short-term period.

EUR/JPY hourly chart

Given that the pair remains above the 100- and 200-day SMAs, yet below the 20-day SMA, it gives mixed signals regarding the broader market control. Thus, an interplay of daily and hourly charts suggests an uphill battle with the bulls maintaining control in a larger context, albeit facing potential near-term pressures.

• EUR/JPY trades on a softer note around 161.15 in Friday’s early European session. 
• BoJ’s Ueda said that policymakers will discuss whether the outlook is favorable enough to phase out the massive monetary stimulus. 
• ECB’s Lane said March data showed progress on inflation, but ECB needs more time to decide when to ease policy.

The EUR/JPY cross attracts some sellers above the 161.00 support level during the early European trading hours on Friday. The cautious mood in the market provides some support to the Japanese Yen (JPY) against the Euro (EUR). However, the lower bets that the BoJ will abandon its negative rates soon might cap the upside of the cross. Market players await the Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate decision for fresh catalysts. The cross currently trades near 161.15, down 0.05% on the day. 

The uncertainty around the Bank of Japan's next policy decision is likely to weaken the JPY and create a headwind for the EUR/JPY cross. The BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said that policymakers will discuss whether the outlook is favorable enough to phase out the massive monetary stimulus. Meanwhile, the rising geopolitical tension in Europe might boost safe-haven flows and benefit the JPY. Western officials reported on Friday that Russia has moved tactical nuclear weapons from its borders into neighboring Belarus, several hundred miles closer to NATO territory. 

On the Euro front, the European Central Bank (ECB) chief economist Philip Lane stated that the central bank needs to take time to get a clearer picture of inflationary pressures in June. ECB President Christine Lagarde said during the press conference at its March meeting that the first-rate cuts are likely to take place in June rather than in April. 

Later on Friday, the February Consumer Price Index (CPI) from France and Italy is due. These events are unlikely to move the market as traders await the BoJ monetary policy meeting next week. The outcome of the BoJ rate decision could give a clear direction to the EUR/JPY cross in the near term. 

• Daily chart displays continued bearish momentum with RSI lingering below 50.
• Hourly indicators also show negative but weakened momentum.
• Bulls must retake the 20-day SMA to brighten the technical outlook.

In Thursday's session, the EUR/JPY pair is trading at 161.33, with a 0.20% loss. Indicators suggest that sellers are in command within the current market, driving a bearish but weakening momentum. Despite this, a broader bullish sentiment persists, underlining the pair's position above key Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). However, as long as the pair stands below the 20-day SMA for the short term, the outlook will be tilted to the downside.

On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI)  fell below 50 into negative territory, towards at 48, pointing south. This indicates continued bearish momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) confirms this downward trend, as it displays red bars, but their decreasing nature hints that the momentum is slower.

EUR/JPY daily chart

On the hourly chart, a similar picture is seen. The RSI is currently at around 46 while the MACD histogram further corroborates the negative view with the presence of red bars.

EUR/JPY hourly chart

Despite the ongoing bearishness, the pair's position above its 100 and 200-day Simple Moving Averages suggests a positive overall trend on a broader scale. Therefore, while the market may experience short-term selling pressure, the longer-term outlook remains in favor of buyers. As the negative momentum seems to be waning, buyers might step in and move towards the 20-day SMA, which, in case of conquering it, would improve the pair's outlook.