Quotes

CFD Trading Rate Australian Dollar vs US Dollar (AUDUSD)

Bid
Ask
Change (%)
Date/Time (GMT 0)
Over the past 10 days
Date Rate Change

Related news

  • 28.03.2024 14:14
    AUD/USD Price Analysis: Likely test Ascending Triangle’s breakdown near 0.6520
    • AUD/USD finds a temporary support near 0.6500 though downside remains favored.
    • RBA’s high interest rates have deepened Australia’s cost of living crisis.
    • The US Dollar retreats from a six-week high despite upwardly revised Q4 GDP estimates.

    The AUD/USD pair finds support slightly below the psychological support of 0.6500 in the early American session on Thursday. The Aussie asset discovers some buying interest as the US Dollar retreats after refreshing six-week high. However, the broader appeal of the Aussie asset is still downbeat as investors remain uncertain ahead of the United States core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for February, which will be published on Friday.

    The core PCE will provide cues about when the Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin reducing interest rates. The annual underlying inflation data is estimated to have grown steadily by 2.8%, with monthly growth declining to 0.3% from 0.4% in January.

    The US Dollar Index failed to sustain six-week highs near 104.72 despite the final estimate from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) for the final quarter of 2023 showing that the economy grew by 3.4%. As per the preliminary estimates, the economy expanded by 3.2%.

    Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar broadly remains on the backfoot as the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) higher Official Cash Rate (OCR) has deepened the cost-of-living crisis. The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that monthly Retail Sales grew at a slower pace of 0.3% in February, against expectations of 0.4% and the former reading of 1.1%.

    AUD/USD is expected to test the breakdown of the Ascending Triangle chart pattern near 0.6520 formed on a four-hour timeframe. The upward-sloping border of the aforementioned pattern is plotted from February 13 low at 0.6442 while the horizontal resistance is placed from January 30 high at 0.6626.

    Downward-sloping 20- and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at 0.6525 and 0.6538, respectively, indicate that near-term demand is weak.

    The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 40.00-60.00 range, indicating indecisiveness among market participants.

    Investors might build fresh shorts after a pullback move near 0.6530. Profits on shorts would be booked near the psychological support of 0.6500 and February 13 low near 0.6440.

    On the contrary, a sharp recovery move above March 26 high at 0.6560 will drive the asset toward the round-level resistance of 0.6600, followed by March 12 high at 0.6640.

    AUD/USD four-hour chart

    AUD/USD

    Overview
    Today last price 0.6514
    Today Daily Change -0.0020
    Today Daily Change % -0.31
    Today daily open 0.6534
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 0.656
    Daily SMA50 0.6551
    Daily SMA100 0.6596
    Daily SMA200 0.655
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 0.6539
    Previous Daily Low 0.6511
    Previous Weekly High 0.6634
    Previous Weekly Low 0.6504
    Previous Monthly High 0.661
    Previous Monthly Low 0.6443
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.6528
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.6522
    Daily Pivot Point S1 0.6518
    Daily Pivot Point S2 0.6501
    Daily Pivot Point S3 0.649
    Daily Pivot Point R1 0.6545
    Daily Pivot Point R2 0.6556
    Daily Pivot Point R3 0.6573

     

     

  • 27.03.2024 22:33
    AUD/USD dips amid Waller’s hawkish comments ahead of Aussie’s Retail Sales
    • AUD/USD falls following Federal Reserve Governor Waller's hawkish remarks on interest rates.
    • Australian inflation remains steady at 3.4% YoY as traders digest implications for RBA’s monetary policy.
    • Upcoming Australian Housing Credit and Retail Sales data eyed for further insight into domestic economic conditions.

    The Australian Dollar finished Wednesday’s session virtually unchanged against the US Dollar following the Aussie’s inflation report and a scarce economic docket in the United States (US). Nevertheless, hawkish comments by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller tumbled the AUD/USD as the Asian session began and traded at 0.6524, down 0.14%.

    Australian Dollar adjusts to Fed's rate expectations and domestic inflation figures

    Waller commented at a speech that rates need to be higher for longer than expected and the need to see more inflation progress before supporting a rate cut. He sees the beginning of the easing cycle in 2024, though he suggests the need to see back-to-back months of inflation data heading to 2%.

    Wall Street finished the session mixed, while US Treasury yields tumbled and the Greenback stood flat at 104.29.

    The US economic docket was empty on Wednesday. Conversely, Australia’s economic calendar revealed that February’s inflation hit 3.4% YoY for the third straight month. Up next, Housing Credit data for February will be released following Januar’s print of 0.4% MoM. Alongside that, Retail Sales for the same period are expected to slow from 1.1% to 0.4% MoM.

    AUD/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook

    After Waller’s remarks, the AUD/USD pushed far below the 200-day moving average (DMA) of 0.6547, with the pair aiming to challenge Wednesday’s lows of 0.6511. Further weakness will drive the pair to test 0.6500, followed by the March 5 low of 0.6477, ahead of the February 13 low of 0.6442.

    Otherwise if buyers reclaim the confluence of the 200-DMA and the 50-DMA, that could open the door to challenge the 100-DMA at 0.6592.

    AUD/USD

    Overview
    Today last price 0.6524
    Today Daily Change -0.0009
    Today Daily Change % -0.14
    Today daily open 0.6533
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 0.6558
    Daily SMA50 0.6551
    Daily SMA100 0.6595
    Daily SMA200 0.6551
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 0.6559
    Previous Daily Low 0.653
    Previous Weekly High 0.6634
    Previous Weekly Low 0.6504
    Previous Monthly High 0.661
    Previous Monthly Low 0.6443
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.6541
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.6548
    Daily Pivot Point S1 0.6523
    Daily Pivot Point S2 0.6512
    Daily Pivot Point S3 0.6494
    Daily Pivot Point R1 0.6551
    Daily Pivot Point R2 0.6569
    Daily Pivot Point R3 0.658

     

     

  • 27.03.2024 13:09
    AUD/USD dips on inflation data, falling Iron Ore and a stronger USD
    • AUD/USD sells off midweek after Australia prints lower-than-expected inflation in February. 
    • Another drop in Iron Ore prices, the country’s largest export, further weighs. 
    • The US Dollar sees broad-based gains after another strong show of US data. 

    AUD/USD is down by over two tenths of a percent in the 0.6610s on Wednesday after the release of Australian inflation data overnight weakened the Australian Dollar (AUD). 

    The pair was further undermined by broad based US Dollar (USD) strength, and an over two and a half percent decline in Iron Ore prices, Australia’s premier export. 

    The Australian Monthly Consumer Price Index showed inflation rose 3.4% in February compared to the previous year, missing expectations of 3.5% but equal to the 3.4% reported in January, according to data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. 

    The lower-than-expected inflation data will have brought forward estimates of when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will likely cut interest rates. Previous expectations were for a cut in August, according to Reuters. Lower interest rates are negative for currencies as they reduce foreign capital inflows. 

    The US Dollar is up more broadly on Wednesday, however, with the Dollar Index (DXY) which tracks the currency against a trade-weighted basket, up a tenth of percent at the time of publication. 

    There appears to be no clear catalyst for the move higher although Tuesday’s US data was on the whole positive, showing a greater-than-expected rise in Durable Goods Orders in February. This adds to the tally of mostly positive data from the US and gives rate-setters at the Federal Reserve something to consider whether or not to begin cutting interest rates. As things stand, the data seems to be calling for a delay on too hasty cutting which is supporting the Buck. 

    Iron Ore sold off sharply on Wednesday further weighing on the AUD/USD given its importance in Aussie trade. Iron ore was trading at 107.50 a tonne at the time of publication, according to Tradingeconomics. The commodity was pulled down by a combination of continued negative China fundamentals, Australia’s largest export partner, and a fall in demand after restocking, according to Hellenic Shipping News. 

    On a positive note, the Westpac Leading Index in February showed a marginal 0.08% gain after declining 0.09% in the previous month.

     

  • 26.03.2024 23:03
    AUD/USD stands its ground amid US data, ahead of Aussie’s CPI
    • AUD/USD hovers at 0.6533, with US economic strength and upcoming PCE Price Index release setting the tone.
    • Recent US durable goods orders exceed expectations, but consumer confidence dips slightly in the face of inflation concerns.
    • As Fed officials express divergent views on rate cuts, market eyes turn to Australian CPI data for further direction.

    The Aussie Dollar remains flatlines against the US Dollar as Wednesday’s Asian session begins. On Tuesday, the AUD/USD pair, reached a daily high of 0.6559 before retreating 0.11%. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 0.6533 virtually unchanged.

    Aussie Dollar steadies as traders digest US durable goods data and brace for key inflation indicators

    Wall Street ended the session with losses as a late risk-off impulse sent US equities lower. Traders are bracing for the release of the US Federal Reserve's preferred gauge for inflation, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, which is expected to slow from 0.4% to 0.3% MoM and increase from 2.4% to 2.5% in the twelve months to February.

    Meanwhile, AUD/USD traders were entertained by the release of the US Durable Goods Orders for February. Readings came at 1.4% Month over Month, exceeding forecasts of 1.1% and January’s -0.9% plunge. The core Durable Goods Orders stood at 0.4% Month over Month, up from -0.3% and above the consensus of 0.4%.

    Other data revealed by the Conference Board (CB) showed that Consumer Confidence was steady in March, yet it ticked down to 104.7 from 104.8, a downward revision from the previous month. The survey showed Americans blaming higher prices and soaring borrowing costs.t

    The Greenback was underpinned throughout the session, weighing on most G8 Forex currencies, including the Aussie Dollar (AUD). The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of a basket of currencies against the buck, rose 0.07% to 104.29.

    Fed speakers divided

    The lack of Federal Reserve officials crossing the wires on Tuesday, left traders adrifr to Monday-s speeches. Atlanta’s Fed Raphael Bostic stated the foresees just one cut, instead of 2 for 2024. Meanwhile, Lisa D. Cook added that easing policy too soon increases the risk of inflation becoming entrenched.

    Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee expects three cuts on the dovish spectrum, though he says he needs more evidence of inflation “coming down.”

    Australia’s inflation in focus

    AS the Asian session commences, traders are eyeing the release of Australia’s inflation. The consensus is for February’s monthly CPI to be 3.4%.

     

    Australian Dollar FAQs

    One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.

    The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.

    China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.

    Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.

    The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

     

  • 26.03.2024 19:53
    AUD/USD Price Analysis: Bearish momentum holds steady, bulls remain weak
    • The daily RSI reveals a potential increase in bearish momentum if the index remains below 50.
    • Under key SMAs on the daily chart, the pair signals rising selling traction, requiring buyers to recover these significant levels.
    • After the intense losses on Friday, indicators are consolidating in negative territory.

    In Tuesday's session, the AUD/USD observed slight bearish momentum, declining towards 0.6535. The broader outlook reveals that the bears exhibit a somewhat stronger presence, which could maintain a certain level of pressure on the pair. Bears seem to have taken a breather after declining by nearly 0.84% last Friday, but the outlook is still tilted to the short-term downside.

    The Relative Strength Index (RSI) presents a negative landscape on the daily chart. The indicator resides in the negative territory with the latest reading just shy of 47. Although currently avoiding oversold conditions, the slight decline in the index is noticeable indicating a continuation of the bearish momentum if the RSI persists below 50. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) lays out rising red bars which tends to suggest a mounting selling pressure.

    AUD/USD daily chart

    Turning the attention to an intraday perspective, the hourly chart reveals a similar trajectory but on a tighter scale. The hourly RSI has just dipped below 45, reinforcing a stronger bearish undertone into the most recent session. The MACD histogram further supports this outlook, with its red bars indicating the presence of negative momentum.

    AUD/USD hourly chart

    Surveying the larger context, the pair is below the 20, 100, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) which is a typical signal that the sellers are in control following last Friday’s losses. Overall, indicators seem to have consolidated in negative territory and might continue sideways trading while markets await fresh drivers. In the meantime, bears hold in command.

     

    AUD/USD

    Overview
    Today last price 0.6534
    Today Daily Change -0.0006
    Today Daily Change % -0.09
    Today daily open 0.654
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 0.6559
    Daily SMA50 0.6552
    Daily SMA100 0.6594
    Daily SMA200 0.6553
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 0.6547
    Previous Daily Low 0.6508
    Previous Weekly High 0.6634
    Previous Weekly Low 0.6504
    Previous Monthly High 0.661
    Previous Monthly Low 0.6443
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.6532
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.6523
    Daily Pivot Point S1 0.6516
    Daily Pivot Point S2 0.6493
    Daily Pivot Point S3 0.6477
    Daily Pivot Point R1 0.6555
    Daily Pivot Point R2 0.6571
    Daily Pivot Point R3 0.6594

     

     

  • 26.03.2024 13:41
    AUD/USD advances to 0.6550 as US Dollar eases, Australian Inflation in focus
    • AUD/USD moves higher to 0.6550 as the US Dollar falls on the Fed’s confidence in inflation, declining to the 2% target.
    • The Fed remains stuck with projections of three rate cuts in 2024.
    • Investors await the Australian monthly CPI data for fresh guidance.

    The AUD/USD pair rises to 0.6550 in Tuesday’s early New York session. The Aussie asset saw buying interest near the psychological support of 0.6500 as the US Dollar eased.

    Federal Reserve policymakers believe that inflation is cooling despite remaining hot in the first two months of this year. This has built downward pressure on the US Dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has corrected modestly from a monthly high of 104.50 to 104.10.

    On Monday, Chicago Fed Bank President Austan Goolsbee said in an interview with Yahoo Finance that the inflation situation is uncertain due to higher housing inflation. However, he is confident that the fundamental story of inflation returning to the 2% target has not changed.

    Going forward, the US Dollar will dance to the tunes of the market expectations for Fed rate cuts. Fed’s ‘three rate cuts’ view in 2024 has boosted the expectations for the Fed to reduce interest rates from the June policy meeting. The CME FedWatch tool shows that the likelihood of rate cut decision in June has increased to 70% against 60%, recorded before the Fed’s monetary policy.

    Meanwhile, upbeat market sentiment has improved the appeal for risk-sensitive assets. Later, the Australian Dollar will be influenced by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February, which will be published on Wednesday. Economists have forecasted that monthly CPI grew at a higher pace of 3.5% against 3.4% in January. This would allow the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to lean towards keeping interest rates higher for a longer period.

    AUD/USD

    Overview
    Today last price 0.655
    Today Daily Change 0.0010
    Today Daily Change % 0.15
    Today daily open 0.654
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 0.6559
    Daily SMA50 0.6552
    Daily SMA100 0.6594
    Daily SMA200 0.6553
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 0.6547
    Previous Daily Low 0.6508
    Previous Weekly High 0.6634
    Previous Weekly Low 0.6504
    Previous Monthly High 0.661
    Previous Monthly Low 0.6443
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.6532
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.6523
    Daily Pivot Point S1 0.6516
    Daily Pivot Point S2 0.6493
    Daily Pivot Point S3 0.6477
    Daily Pivot Point R1 0.6555
    Daily Pivot Point R2 0.6571
    Daily Pivot Point R3 0.6594

     

     

  • 26.03.2024 10:12
    AUD/USD will likely remain heavy as iron ore prices are under renewed downside pressure – BBH

    AUD/USD is directionless just under its 200-Day Moving Average of 0.6551. Economists at BBH analyze the pair’s outlook.

    Australia’s Westpac/Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index fell in March

    AUD/USD will likely remain heavy as iron ore prices are under renewed downside pressure. 

    Moreover, Australia’s Westpac Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index fell 1.8% to 84.4 in March, suggesting consumers are more concerned about the near-term economic outlook. The data validates the RBA’s concern about weak household consumption growth and supports money market pricing for 50 bps of rate cut this year.

  • 25.03.2024 23:03
    AUD/USD stays firm awaiting RBA speech; US PCE ahead in the week
    • AUD/USD stabilizes after gains, with traders eyeing the 200-DMA and upcoming Australian consumer sentiment indicators.
    • Mixed messages from Fed officials on rate cuts contrast with potential optimism from RBA’s upcoming commentary.
    • Geopolitical tensions and global economic indicators may sway risk appetite, influencing AUD/USD direction.

    The Aussie Dollar (AUD) begins the Asian session virtually unchanged vs. the US Dollar after clocking solid gains of 0.41% on Monday. At the time of writing, the AUD/USD trades at 0.6539, beneath the 200-day moving average (DMA).

    AUD/USD traders await Aussie’s Consumer Confidence

    Wall Street ended Monday’s session with losses as traders braced for the release of a US inflation report. US New Home Sales in February contracted to pre-pandemic levels, decreasing -0.3% MoM from a 1.7% rise in January, from 0.664 million to 0.662 million. Other data showed that the Chicago Fed National Activity Index improved from -0.54 to 0.05.

    Elsewhere, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing survey fell from -11.3 in February to -14.4 in March and below expectations for a minimal rise.

    On the Aussie’s front, the schedule will feature the Consumer Confidence and the speech of Ellis Connolly, a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) member. In the US, traders are waiting for the release of the Fed’s preferred gauge for inflation, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), expected to dip from 0.4% to 0.3% MoM, which headline inflation is foreseen to tick up from 0.3% to 0.4% MoM.

    Fed speakers remained split about rate cuts

    Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he expects just one rate cut this year, adding that cutting rates too soon could be more disruptive. At the same time, his colleague, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, adheres to the majority of the board and expects three cuts, though he said he needs more evidence of inflation “coming down.”

    Fed Governor Lisa Cook echoed Bostic's comments, saying that cutting too soon increases the risks of inflation becoming entrenched. She added that the Fed’s dual mandate goals are moving toward better balance.

    Given the fundamental backdrop and a positive market mood, the AUD/USD can extend its gains and test key resistance levels. Nevertheless, the sudden escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, alongside the Red Sea crisis, could dent investors' appetite for riskier assets, and seeking safety could underpin the Greenback.

    AUD/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook

    The AUD/USD pair bounced off last Friday’s lows and is climbing but faces a key resistance level at 0.6551, the confluence of the 50 and 200-day moving averages (DMA). Once breached, further upside is seen. The next supply zone would be the 100-DMA at 0.6589, ahead of 0.6600. On the other hand, sellers' failure at 0.6550 would sponsor a leg-down, and the pair could re-test the 0.6500 figure.

     

    Australian Dollar FAQs

    One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.

    The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.

    China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.

    Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.

    The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

     

  • 25.03.2024 15:19
    AUD/USD bounces back amid US Dollar weakness
    • AUD/USD climbs after a dip, finding support from a broader USD retreat.
    • Fed's mixed messages on interest rates, with Bostic cautious on cuts and Goolsbee open to three, sway market sentiment.
    • US New Home Sales dropped, while the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index dived.

    The Aussie Dollar (AUD) recovers against the US Dollar (USD) after hitting a daily low of 0.6509, though broad USD weakness underpins the commodity-linked currency. At the time of writing, the AUD/USD trades at 0.6543, up 0.43%.

    AUD/USD gains as Fed speakers offer divergent views on rate cuts

    Market sentiment is downbeat, with Wall Street trading with losses. The US economic calendar has featured Fed speakers led by Atlanta’s Fed President Raphael Bostic, who said he expects just one rate cut this year, adding that cutting rates too soon could be more disruptive. At the same time, his colleague, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, adheres to the majority of the board and expects three cuts, though he said he needs more evidence of inflation “coming down.”

    Recently, Fed Governor Lisa Cook echoed Bostic's comments, saying that cutting too soon increases the risks of inflation becoming entrenched. She added that the Fed’s dual mandate goals are moving toward better balance.

    Data-wise, US housing market data was revealed, with New Home Sales for February decreasing -0.3% MoM from 0.664 million to 0.662 million. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index improved from -0.54 to 0.05. According to the Chicago Fed, all four categories that compose the index improved on the month.

    Recently, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index plunged further from -11.3 in February to -14.4 in March. Wages and prices increased during the month, while expectations for future manufacturing activity, generally improved.

    AUD/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook

    The AUD/USD pair bounced off last Friday’s lows and is climbing but faces a key resistance level at 0.6551, the confluence of the 50 and 200-day moving averages (DMA). Further upside is seen once breached. The next supply zone would be the 100-DMA at 0.6589, ahead of 0.6600. On the other hand, sellers' failure at 0.6550 would sponsor a leg-down and the pair could re-test the 0.6500 figure.

    AUD/USD

    Overview
    Today last price 0.6538
    Today Daily Change 0.0023
    Today Daily Change % 0.35
    Today daily open 0.6515
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 0.6559
    Daily SMA50 0.6554
    Daily SMA100 0.6593
    Daily SMA200 0.6554
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 0.6577
    Previous Daily Low 0.651
    Previous Weekly High 0.6634
    Previous Weekly Low 0.6504
    Previous Monthly High 0.661
    Previous Monthly Low 0.6443
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.6536
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.6551
    Daily Pivot Point S1 0.6491
    Daily Pivot Point S2 0.6467
    Daily Pivot Point S3 0.6424
    Daily Pivot Point R1 0.6558
    Daily Pivot Point R2 0.6601
    Daily Pivot Point R3 0.6624

     

     

  • 24.03.2024 23:07
    AUD/USD finds some support above the 0.6500 mark, Australian CPI data eyed
    • AUD/USD trades on a weaker note near 0.6512 in Monday’s early Asian session.
    • Fed’s Powell said officials want to feel more confident that inflation is headed toward the central bank’s 2% target before cutting the rates.
    • The further positive development surrounding Chinese macro policy could lift the Aussie.
    • The Australian February CPI inflation data and US Q4 GDP numbers will be in the spotlight this week. 

    The AUD/USD pair finds some support above the 0.6500 mark during the early Asian session on Monday. The pair edges lower amid the further gains of the US Dollar (USD). Investors will monitor the Australian monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February and the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter. At the press time, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6512, losing 0.03% on the day.

    The US Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers indicated that they will be in a position to cut interest rates when they have confidence that inflation is progressing towards the 2.0% target. The Fed Chair Jerome Powell said during the press conference that a surprise increase in unemployment could prompt the Fed to lower rates. The Fed also stuck with its earlier forecast for three rate cuts before the year's end based on its dot plot.

    On the other hand, China's Premier Li Qiang said on Sunday that the nation’s low inflation and low central government debt ratio means there is ample room for macro policy. The Chinese government will issue ultralong special treasury bonds worth one trillion yuan, which will effectively support investment and stabilize economic growth. Furthermore, the Chinese authorities will work to prevent system risks and push for long-term and healthy development of China's economy. The further positive development surrounding Chinese stimulus measures and macro policy could boost the China-proxy Australian Dollar (AUD) against the Greenback.

    Market players, we will keep an eye on the Australian CPI inflation data on Wednesday, which is expected to show an increase of 3.6% YoY February from 3.4% in the previous reading. On Thursday, the Australian February Retail Sales and the US GDP growth numbers for Q4 will be released. Traders will take cues from these events and find trading opportunities around the AUD/USD pair ahead of the Good Friday holiday on Friday.

    AUD/USD

    Overview
    Today last price 0.6515
    Today Daily Change 0.0000
    Today Daily Change % -0.00
    Today daily open 0.6515
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 0.6559
    Daily SMA50 0.6554
    Daily SMA100 0.6593
    Daily SMA200 0.6554
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 0.6577
    Previous Daily Low 0.651
    Previous Weekly High 0.6634
    Previous Weekly Low 0.6504
    Previous Monthly High 0.661
    Previous Monthly Low 0.6443
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.6536
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.6551
    Daily Pivot Point S1 0.6491
    Daily Pivot Point S2 0.6467
    Daily Pivot Point S3 0.6424
    Daily Pivot Point R1 0.6558
    Daily Pivot Point R2 0.6601
    Daily Pivot Point R3 0.6624

     

     

  • 22.03.2024 16:00
    AUD/USD to end the year around 0.7200 before driving higher over 2025 – NAB

    AUD/USD has traded in the 0.6500 range through March – with a short rise above 0.6600. Economists at the National Australia Bank analyze the pair’s outlook.

    Aussie still expected to appreciate 

    Our expectation for an appreciation above 0.7000 in H2 2024 is contingent on the reversal of the broad strength shown by the USD over the past year or so. In part, this will be reflected by the Fed beginning to ease rates in June – well ahead of an easing by the RBA and a gradual pickup in global growth in 2025. 

    We see the Aussie ending the year around 0.7200 before driving higher over 2025 – reaching 0.7800 by Q4.

     

  • 22.03.2024 13:24
    AUD/USD: Why has the Australian Dollar weakened so much despite amazing jobs data?
    • AUD/USD pitches back down to the base of its range after US data eclipses Aussie employment figures. 
    • The rapid reversal is surprising since the Australian data was stellar whilst the US data was unremarkable.
    • A deeper analysis of the Australian jobs data might reveal why its upside influence was so ephemeral. 

    AUD/USD is trading back down at the bottom or its multi-week range in the lower 0.6500s on Friday, after positive US data led to a reversal in the pair from its 0.6634 Thursday highs. 

    Australian Dollar versus US Dollar: Daily chart

    Although the US data was positive it was not remarkable. When compared to the Australian employment data that preceded it and led to such a strong surge higher in the AUD/USD on Thursday morning, it could be said to be at best mediocre. 

    How is it, then, that in the case of the AUD/USD pair, the US data led to such a sharp reversal lower? 

    US data downs the Aussie 

    A look at the US data in detail only intensifies the mystery further. The S&P Global US Composite PMI actually came out lower in March than the previous month, and Services PMI undershot expectations. 

    Whilst Manufacturing PMI beat expectations at 52.7 – making the US one of the few developed countries with an expansionary Manufacturing sector – the data hardly warranted the strong move up in the US Dollar (USD).

    Granted, the other releases at the time – Initial Jobless Claims and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index – also painted a positive picture of the state of the US economy, these are still considered only at best rather minor data points.

    Australian employment – a true renaissance?

    Australian employment data, on the other hand, released a few hours before the US data came out, appeared at least on the surface stellar by comparison.  

    The Unemployment Rate fell to 3.7% from 4.1% in February, and the number of new employees hit 116,500, a number well above the average. Both data points beat expectations of 4.0% and 40,000 respectively. 

    A deeper dig into Australia’s labor market statistics and seasonal effects, however, suggests the incredible data in February obscured a much more modest underlying trend. 

    The Unemployment Rate, for example, may have fallen sharply in february but it was “around where it had been six months earlier,” according to Bjorn Davis, head of Statistics at ABS. 

    In terms of the unusually high Employment Change figure of 116.5K, Davis says this smooths out to a much more modest level when taken alongside the 62,000 fall in employed people in December and weaker-than-usual 15,000 rise in January. Taking the three months losses and gains together smooths the overall three-month change to a more modest 70,000 more people employed overall in February, compared to November 2023. 

    The data shows a lag effect because a larger-than-average number of people were waiting to start a job in December and January, that they subsequently went on to begin in February, boosting that month’s statistics. 

    That said, that data was still better than usual. The increase in people working from January to February was still above average, according to Davis.

    “In 2022 and 2023, around 4.3 percent of employed people in February had not been employed in January. In 2024, this was higher, at 4.7 percent, and well above the pre-pandemic average for 2015 to 2020 of around 3.9 percent."

    Nevertheless, a deeper understanding of the underlying statistics of February’s Australian employment release goes some way to explaining why the reaction in the Australian Dollar was a) not stronger, and b) so easily toppled by subsequent mediocre US data.

     

  • 21.03.2024 22:57
    AUD/USD remains firm amidst strong USD, following major central bank decisions
    • AUD/USD recovers to 0.6571 after dipping, despite central bank actions.
    • BoJ hikes, SNB cuts rates, and other central banks are steady.
    • Mixed US data: manufacturing up, services, and composite PMIs down.
    • Market eyes June Fed cut, post-steady rate projections.

    The Australian Dollar (AUD) tumbled against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday despite refreshing weekly highs at 0.6634, printed losses of 0.25%. However, as Friday’s Asian session begins, the AUD/USD exchanges hands at 0.6571, virtually unchanged as traders brace for the weekend.

    Australian Dollar holds near weekly lows amid mixed global monetary policy moves

    A tranche of central banks adjusted their monetary policy throughout the weekend, led by the Bank of Japan, the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank. Most of them kept rates unchanged, being the outliers of the BoJ and the SNB. The former raised rates for the first time in almost two decades, while the latter was the first major central bank to cut interest rates.

    Data-wise, the US economic schedule featured March S&P Global PMIs, with the services and the composite index, missing estimates but standing at expansionary territory. On a positive note, manufacturing activity accelerated to its fastest pace in almost two years. Elsewhere, the US labor market continued to show signs of tightness despite the recent withholding according to February’s Nonfarm Payrolls figures. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 16 fell to 210k versus 212k the week prior.

    Aside from this, market participants seem convinced they overreacted post-Federal Reserve’s decision to withhold the federal funds rate (FFR) unchanged at the 5.25%-5.50% range. The Fed Dot-Plots failed to deliver a hawkish stance, keeping three cut rates on the table for 2024, spurring a jump in interest rate cut expectations for June, which sit at around 80%.

    On the Aussie’s front, the docket is empty, though proxies like the data from New Zealand would feature the Balance of Trade and Japan’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February.

     

    Australian Dollar FAQs

    One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.

    The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.

    China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.

    Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.

    The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

     

  • 21.03.2024 14:10
    AUD/USD falls back to lows of the day after release of US data
    • AUD/USD declines back down to the 0.6580s. 
    • Aussie employment data and Fed meeting outcome had boosted the pair early on Thursday. 
    • Upbeat US data saw AUD/USD fall back down, however, during the US session. 

    AUD/USD trades back down at the lows of the day, during the US session on Thursday, after a batch of relatively strong American data helped the US Dollar (USD) claw back lost ground.

    The pair had been rising after the Australian Dollar (AUD) got a boost from data showing an unexpected fall in Australian unemployment and a much higher-than-expected increase in the number of people in employment down under. 

    The release of US PMI data for March, Initial Jobless Claims and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index all supported the USD and saw the pair fall back close to the day’s lows in the 0.6580s. 

    US S&P Global Composite PMI came out at 52.2, holding above the 50 level that distinguishes expansion from contraction. US Manufacturing PMI came out at 52.5, beating estimates and previous figures. Services PMI, however, undershot expectations and previous results, coming out at 51.7 in March. 

    The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey came out higher than estimated at 3.2, and Initial Jobless Claims at 210K were lower than the 215K forecast. 

    AUD/USD rallied on Wednesday, triggered by US Dollar (USD) weakness after the Federal Reserve (Fed) March policy meeting. 

    At the meeting the Fed reaffirmed they would still be cutting interest rates by roughly three quarters of a percent in 2024 despite speculation they would reduce rate cuts because of recent warmer-than-expected inflation reading. 

    Early on Thursday the pair continued rising after it was revealed Australia added 116,500 new employees in February and saw its Unemployment Rate fall to 3.7% from 4.1%, according to data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. 

    The figures beat economists expectations of a 40,000 increase in employees and unemployment at 4.0%. 

    The data supports the outlook for the Australian economy, is likely indicative of higher wage inflation going forward and suggests the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will have to keep interest rates higher for longer. Higher interest rates are positive for currencies as they attract greater inflows of foreign capital. 

    The technical picture shows the AUD/USD pair oscillating in a range between roughly 0.6480 and 0.6650. 


    Australian Dollar versus US Dollar: 4-hour chart

    The pair is currently turning around at the range highs and looking vulnerable to selling off. 

    A continued move lower could see it return to the base of the range. Alternatively a break above the 0.6668 highs would provide confirmation of a higher high and the formation of a bullish short-term trend.

     

  • 20.03.2024 23:19
    AUD/USD climbs after Fed’s decision, ahead of Aussie’s job data
    • AUD up 0.83% vs. USD after Fed holds policy steady.
    • Wall Street up, praises US economy, labor strength post-Fed.
    • US 10-year yield dips, Dollar Index down, hints AUD/USD rise.
    • Mixed Australia PMI, strong job outlook may sway RBA policy.

    The Australian Dollar soared 0.83% against the US Dollar on Wednesday as the Federal Reserve held rates steady while maintaining their monetary policy outlook from last year, with 75 basis points (bps) of rate cuts in 2024. As the Asian session begins, the pair trades at 0.6595, up 0.14%.

    Aussie Dolar gains momentum amid the beginning of Asia session

    Wall Street ended the session on a higher note following the Fed’s decision. The US central bank kept the Federal Funds rate (FFR) at 5.25%- 5.50% and stated that the economy and the jobs market are robust. The disinflation process had evolved, but the last two readings of the CPI and PPI justified the Fed’s rhetoric of being patient. Despite that, Fed officials stick to their three rate cuts in 2024.

    Following the data, the US 10-year Treasury note yield fell one and a half basis points to 4.277%, while the Greenback got battered. The US Dollar Index (DXY), a gauge of the buck’s value against other currencies, tumbles 0.42% and sits at 103.38, aiming below the 200-day moving average (DMA), a key dynamic support level, that depicts a financial markets asset as bullish or bearish.

    On the Aussies' front, the schedule featured the release of Judo Bank Flash PMI figures for March. The manufacturing PMI dipped from 47.8 to 46.8, while the Services PMI rose from 53.1 to 53.5. The Composite Index came at 52.4, up from 52.1.

    AUD/USD traders’ eye further data from Australia, with the jobs market expected to add 40,000 people to the workforce. That would lower the unemployment rate, from 4.1% to 4%. A strong reading could suggest the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) should stick to its current stance and shrug off speculations of the first-rate cut in August.

    AUD/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook

    From a technical perspective, the AUD/USD printed a leg-up, clearing key resistance levels and poised to breach the 0.6600 figure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) confirms that statement, as it aims higher in bullish territory, with the pair closing at weekly highs, snapping four days of losses. The next supply zone would be the psychological 0.6650 mark, followed by the March 8 high at 0.6667. Once cleared, that would expose 0.6700.

    AUD/USD

    Overview
    Today last price 0.6595
    Today Daily Change 0.0063
    Today Daily Change % 0.96
    Today daily open 0.6532
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 0.6559
    Daily SMA50 0.6562
    Daily SMA100 0.659
    Daily SMA200 0.6559
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 0.6564
    Previous Daily Low 0.6504
    Previous Weekly High 0.6639
    Previous Weekly Low 0.6552
    Previous Monthly High 0.661
    Previous Monthly Low 0.6443
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.6527
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.6541
    Daily Pivot Point S1 0.6503
    Daily Pivot Point S2 0.6473
    Daily Pivot Point S3 0.6443
    Daily Pivot Point R1 0.6563
    Daily Pivot Point R2 0.6593
    Daily Pivot Point R3 0.6623

     

     

  • 20.03.2024 13:06
    AUD/USD holds key support of 0.6500 ahead of Fed policy meeting
    • AUD/USD faces pressure amid cautious market sentiment ahead of Fed policy.
    • Investors await the Fed’s dot plot and economic projections for fresh guidance.
    • RBA Bullock delivers a neutral interest rate outlook.

    The AUD/USD pair faces selling pressure but continues to hold the psychological support of 0.6500 in Wednesday’s late European session ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision, which will be announced at 18:00 GMT. The Aussie asset remains on the backfoot as the Australian Dollar weakens as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock delivers neutral guidance on the Official Cash rate (OCR) after keeping it unchanged at 4.35%.

    S&P 500 futures are slightly down in the late London session, portraying caution among market participants ahead of the Fed’s monetary policy announcement. The US Dollar Index (DXY) jumps to 104.10 after continuing its winning spell for the fifth trading session. 10-year US Treasury yields have dropped slightly to 4.28%, remains broadly strong ahead of Fed’s meeting.

    The CME Fedwatch tool shows interest rates will remain unchanged in the range of 5.25%-5.50% for the fifth time in a row. The Fed is expected to avoid signalling any timeframe for rate cuts as inflation remains stubbornly higher than the 2% target. Consumer price inflation in February was hotter than expected due to higher food and gasoline prices. The rate cuts are appropriate only if the Fed finds inflation declining to 2% as certain.

    Apart from that, Fed’s dot plot and United States economic projections will be keenly watched. The Fed’s dot plot is updated every quarter, shows interest rates projections for different timeframes. December’s dot plot indicated that policymakers see three rate cuts in 2024. The appeal for safe-haven assets would strengthen If the Fed projects fewer rate cuts this time.

    AUD/USD

    Overview
    Today last price 0.652
    Today Daily Change -0.0012
    Today Daily Change % -0.18
    Today daily open 0.6532
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 0.6559
    Daily SMA50 0.6562
    Daily SMA100 0.659
    Daily SMA200 0.6559
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 0.6564
    Previous Daily Low 0.6504
    Previous Weekly High 0.6639
    Previous Weekly Low 0.6552
    Previous Monthly High 0.661
    Previous Monthly Low 0.6443
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.6527
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.6541
    Daily Pivot Point S1 0.6503
    Daily Pivot Point S2 0.6473
    Daily Pivot Point S3 0.6443
    Daily Pivot Point R1 0.6563
    Daily Pivot Point R2 0.6593
    Daily Pivot Point R3 0.6623

     

     

  • 19.03.2024 22:57
    AUD/USD stays steady as traders digest RBA decision, eyes on Fed meeting
    • AUD/USD steady post-RBA's dovish stance and static rates.
    • US housing data boosts optimism pre-FOMC decision.
    • Fed policy update awaited, with eyes on interest rate forecasts.

    The Australian Dollar begins Wednesday’s Asian session virtually unchanged against the US Dollar,  following Tuesday’s loss of 0.41%, after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decision. The RBA kept rates unchanged, tilting more dovish than expected. That said, the AUD/USD trades at 0.6532, almost flat.

    Aussie Dollar stays firm following the central bank decision

    On Tuesday, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the RBA announced their March monetary policy decisions. The BoJ hiked rates by ten basis points, the first in 17 years, ending the era of negative interest rates. In addition, it ended the Yield Curve Control (YCC) and its ETF buying program. The RBA softened its tone while keeping the door open for additional tightening if needed.

    In the meantime, US equities ended the session in the green as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decisions loom. Data-wise, the US economic docket revealed housing data. Building Permits increased by 1.9% from 1.489 M to 1.518M, improving sharply compared to January’s data. Housing Starts rose 10.7% from 1.425M to 1.521 M.

    An absent economic docket in Australia keeps AUD/USD traders waiting for the Fed’s decision. ANZ analysts commented that they expect the Fed to make no major changes to the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). Regarding rate cuts, they noted, “We think it will cut in 25bp increments through the second half of the year, reducing the nominal Fed funds corridor by 100bp this year.”

    AUD/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook

     The AUD/USD fell below the 200-day moving average (DMA) of 0.6556, opening the door for further losses. This comes after the RBA decision, and with speculations for a Fed “hawkish” tilt, that would exacerbate a dip to 0.6500. Further losses are seen below March 5 swing low of 0.6477, and the February 13 low of 0.6442. On the upside, the 200-DMA would be the first resistance, followed by the 50-DMA at 0.6558 and the 100-DMA at 0.6586.

    AUD/USD

    Overview
    Today last price 0.653
    Today Daily Change -0.0029
    Today Daily Change % -0.44
    Today daily open 0.6559
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 0.656
    Daily SMA50 0.6565
    Daily SMA100 0.6588
    Daily SMA200 0.656
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 0.6574
    Previous Daily Low 0.6551
    Previous Weekly High 0.6639
    Previous Weekly Low 0.6552
    Previous Monthly High 0.661
    Previous Monthly Low 0.6443
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.656
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.6565
    Daily Pivot Point S1 0.6549
    Daily Pivot Point S2 0.6538
    Daily Pivot Point S3 0.6526
    Daily Pivot Point R1 0.6572
    Daily Pivot Point R2 0.6585
    Daily Pivot Point R3 0.6595

     

     

  • 19.03.2024 14:28
    AUD/USD: RBA rate guidance shift and sharp decline in price of iron ore weighs on the Aussie – MUFG

    The Australian Dollar (AUD) has weakened following the RBA’s latest policy meeting. Economists at MUFG Bank analyze Aussie’s outlook.

    RBA to begin cutting rates during the second half of this year

    The RBA left their policy rate unchanged for the third consecutive meeting at 4.35%. However, the RBA softened their guidance over the likelihood of further rate hikes in the updated policy statement. 

    The updated guidance from the RBA has made us more confident that the RBA has reached the end of their rate hike cycle although the risk of one final hike can’t be completely ruled out. 

    We expect the RBA to begin cutting rates during the second half of this year. Unlike other major central banks like the Fed, the RBA is expected to be slower to lower rates. 

    In contrast, one less supportive development for the Aussie has been the recent sharp decline in the price of iron ore which has continued to plunge so far this month. After peaking at the start of this year, the price of iron ore has since declined by almost 30% which continues to pose downside risks for the Aussie in the near term.

     

  • 19.03.2024 12:30
    AUD/USD plunges to 0.6500 on dismal sentiment, RBA’s neutral interest rate guidance
    • AUD/USD falls sharply to 0.6500 on multiple headwinds.
    • The RBA kept interest rates unchanged at 4.35% and delivered neutral guidance on interest rates.
    • Investors await the Fed’s dot plot for fresh guidance on interest rates.

    The AUD/USD pair faces an intense sell-off as downbeat market sentiment has weakened the appeal of risk-perceived assets. The Aussie asset falls to the psychological support of 0.6500 in Tuesday’s late European session as the US Dollar strengthens amid uncertainty ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision, which will be announced on Wednesday.

    S&P 500 futures have posted significant losses in the London session, portraying a decline in investors’ risk appetite. The US Dollar Index (DXY) continues its winning streak for the fourth trading session, rises to 104.00 amid upbeat safe-haven bid. 10-year US Treasury yields have come down slightly to 4.32%. Broadly, US bond yields exhibit strength as Fed rate cut expectations for the June policy meeting have dropped due to hot inflation data for February.

    The Fed’s interest rate decision will guide the next move in the US Dollar. The CME FedWatch tool shows that the central bank will keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 5.25%-5.50% for the fifth time in a row. Therefore, investors will focus mainly on the release of the dot plot and economic projections. The dot plot, updated every quarter, shows interest rate projections from Fed officials for various timeframes.

    Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar weakens as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) delivers neutral guidance on the Official Cash rate (OCR) after keeping it unchanged at 4.35%. RBA Governor Michele Bullock said in his policy statement that a victory on inflation cannot be announced yet. The RBA needs to be more confident that inflation is coming down to consider a rate cut.

    AUD/USD

    Overview
    Today last price 0.6519
    Today Daily Change -0.0040
    Today Daily Change % -0.61
    Today daily open 0.6559
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 0.656
    Daily SMA50 0.6565
    Daily SMA100 0.6588
    Daily SMA200 0.656
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 0.6574
    Previous Daily Low 0.6551
    Previous Weekly High 0.6639
    Previous Weekly Low 0.6552
    Previous Monthly High 0.661
    Previous Monthly Low 0.6443
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.656
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.6565
    Daily Pivot Point S1 0.6549
    Daily Pivot Point S2 0.6538
    Daily Pivot Point S3 0.6526
    Daily Pivot Point R1 0.6572
    Daily Pivot Point R2 0.6585
    Daily Pivot Point R3 0.6595

     

     

  • 19.03.2024 10:04
    AUD/USD can break below February low of 0.6443 if the Fed turns less dovish – BBH

    AUD/USD plunged after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) dropped its tightening bias. Economists at BBH analyze the pair’s outlook.

    RBA left the cash rate target at 4.35%

    The RBA kept the cash rate target at 4.35% (no surprise) but unexpectedly dropped its tightening bias. The RBA tweaked its policy guidance from warning that’a further increase in interest rates cannot be ruled out’ to ‘the Board is not ruling anything in or out’. Accordingly, the tone of the RBA statement was more cautious noting that wage growth ‘appears to have peaked’ and ‘household consumption growth remains particularly weak amid high inflation and the rise in interest rates’.

    AUD/USD can break below its February low (0.6443) if, as we expect, the Fed turns less dovish on Wednesday.

     

1 / 8

© 2000-2024. All rights reserved.

This site is managed by Teletrade D.J. LLC 2351 LLC 2022 (Euro House, Richmond Hill Road, Kingstown, VC0100, St. Vincent and the Grenadines).

The information on this website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice.

The company does not serve or provide services to customers who are residents of the US, Canada, Iran, The Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Yemen and FATF blacklisted countries.

AML Website Summary

Risk Disclosure

Making transactions on financial markets with marginal financial instruments opens up wide possibilities and allows investors who are willing to take risks to earn high profits, carrying a potentially high risk of losses at the same time. Therefore you should responsibly approach the issue of choosing the appropriate investment strategy, taking the available resources into account, before starting trading.

Privacy Policy

Use of the information: full or partial use of materials from this website must always be referenced to TeleTrade as the source of information. Use of the materials on the Internet must be accompanied by a hyperlink to teletrade.org. Automatic import of materials and information from this website is prohibited.

Please contact our PR department if you have any questions or need assistance at pr@teletrade.global.

Bank
transfers
Feedback
Live Chat E-mail
Up
Choose your language / location