CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 29-04-2019

Major US stock indices rose slightly on the first day of an eventful week. The market was supported by favorable consumer spending data, as well as hopes for resolving a trade dispute with China, solid corporate reporting and maintaining the dovish position of the Fed.

As the report of the Ministry of Commerce showed, consumer spending in the US rose to a maximum in nine and a half years in March, but price pressure remained muffled, and a key inflation indicator showed the smallest annual increase in 14 months. According to the report, consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity in the United States, rose by 0.9% as households stepped up car purchases and began to spend more on health care. Consumer spending rose 0.1% in February. At the same time, inflation pressure in March was mild. The personal consumption price index (PCE) excluding volatile food and energy components, which is the preferred indicator of the Fed's inflation, did not change in March, after rising 0.1% in February. This reduced the annual growth of the so-called basic price index PCE to 1.6%, the smallest increase since January 2018, from 1.7% in February, increasing the likelihood of the Fed keeping the “pigeon” position on interest rates at the next regulator meeting, the results of which will be announced on Wednesday .

Market participants also continued to closely monitor the course of trade negotiations between the US and China. As reported by The New York Times, on Sunday, US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said that trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing are entering the final stage. “We are entering the home straight,” he said in an interview with the publication. “I think both sides have a desire to reach an agreement,” he added. “We have made great progress.”

As expected, US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin will resume trade negotiations with China in Beijing tomorrow.

About 160 S & P 500 companies plan to publish their quarterly results this week, including such giants as Alphabet (GOOG), General Motors (GM), General Electric (GE), Merck (MRK), Pfizer (PFE), McDonald's (MCD), Apple (AAPL) and DowDuPont (DWDP). According to Refinitiv, analysts now expect that the profits of the S & P 500 companies in the last quarter will show a decrease of only 0.2% y / y, which is a dramatic improvement compared with a 2% y / y decline predicted at the beginning of the month.

Most of the components of DOW finished trading in positive territory (16 of 30). The growth leader was the shares of The Goldman Sachs Group (GS; + 2.15%). Intel Corp shares were an outsider. (INTC; -2.60%).

Almost all sectors of the S & P recorded an increase. The sector of conglomerates grew the most (+ 3.6%). The largest decline was shown by the utility sector (-0.4%).

At the time of closing:

Dow 26,554.25 +10.92 +0.04%

S & P 500 2,943.03 +3.15 +0.11%

Nasdaq 100 8,161.85 +15.46 +0.19%

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas reported its general business activity index for manufacturing in Texas dropped to 2 in April from a revised 6.9 in the previous month (originally 8.3).

Economists had forecast the indicator to decline to -2.6.

According to the report, the production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, edged up two points to 12.4, indicating output growth accelerated slightly from March. At the same time, the new orders index rose eight points to 9.8, and the capacity utilization index increased to a seven-month high of 15.6, while the shipments index held rather steady at 6.3. The employment index dropped eight points to 4.6, its lowest reading since the end of 2016.

‏Telegraph's deputy political editor Steven Swinford tweets: "Brexit is officially dead (for this week at least). It's been taken off the Cabinet agenda for tomorrow and replaced with an update on Northern Ireland. There will also be discussions on air quality and housing."

U.S. stock-index futures traded flat on Monday ahead of busy week, which will feature another slew of earnings reports, the rate decision from the Fed on Wednesday, and the Employment Situation Report on Friday. In addition, USTR Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin are expected to resume U.S.-China trade talks in Beijing tomorrow.

Global Stocks:

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

American Express (AXP) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS

Intel (INTC) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Argus

3M (MMM) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Gordon Haskett

Disney (DIS) target raised to $150 from $137 at J.P. Morgan

The Commerce Department announced on Monday that consumer spending in the U.S. edged up 0.1 percent m-o-m in February, following a revised 0.3 percent m-o-m gain in January (originally a 0.1 percent m-o-m increase). Economists had forecast the reading to show a 0.7 percent m-o-m growth.

Meanwhile, consumer income rose 0.2 percent m-o-m in February after an unrevised 0.1 percent m-o-m drop in the previous month.

The February increase in personal income primarily reflected gains in compensation of employees, government social benefits to persons, and personal dividend income, which were partially offset by a decrease in personal interest income, the report said.

For March, consumer income posted an advance of 0.1 percent m-o-m, which primarily reflected increases in compensation of employees and government social benefits to persons that were partially offset by decreases in personal interest income and farm proprietors’ income.

Personal spending in surged 0.9 percent m-o-m in March, beating economists’ forecast for a 0.7 percent climb. That was the biggest increase in personal spending since August 2009. Within goods, increases were widespread, with spending on motor vehicles and parts the leading contributor. Within services, the largest contributor to the increase was spending on health care.

At the same time, personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, excluding the volatile categories of food and energy, which is the Fed's preferred inflation measure, was flat m-o-m in March, following a 0.1 percent m-o-m advance in the prior month. Economists had projected the index would increase 0.1 percent m-o-m.

In the 12 months through March, the core PCE increased 1.6 percent, decelerating from an unrevised 1.7 percent gain in the 12 months through. Economists had forecast a gain of 1.7 percent y-o-y.

Analysts at TD Securities expects Canada’s industry-level GDP to remain unchanged in February following a robust 0.3% advance last month.

• Activity data for the month of February was mixed on balance, with retail and manufacturing sales helping to offset one another. Weather will have an adverse impact if the sharp pullbacks in residential construction and home sales offer any signal, although this will be partially offset by higher utilities output.
• Looking to the energy sector, mandated production caps began to roll off by an initial 75bpd in February, leaving the daily maximum production 250k barrels below 2018 levels, up from 325k in January. However, preliminary crude production figures show weaker output during the month, which suggests that transportation bottlenecks continue to impact upstream activity despite less intervention.

April 29

After the Close:

Alphabet (GOOG). Consensus EPS $10.17, Consensus Revenues $37358.75 mln

April 30

Before the Open:

General Electric (GE). Consensus EPS $0.09, Consensus Revenues $27364.40 mln

General Motors (GM). Consensus EPS $1.12, Consensus Revenues $35556.28 mln

MasterCard (MA). Consensus EPS $1.66, Consensus Revenues $3857.26 mln

McDonald's (MCD). Consensus EPS $1.76, Consensus Revenues $4943.45 mln

Merck (MRK). Consensus EPS $1.05, Consensus Revenues $10452.37 mln

Pfizer (PFE). Consensus EPS $0.75, Consensus Revenues $13011.52 mln

After the Close:

Advanced Micro (AMD). Consensus EPS $0.06, Consensus Revenues $1257.37 mln

Apple (AAPL). Consensus EPS $2.36, Consensus Revenues $57392.41 mln

May 2

Before the Open:

DowDuPont (DWDP). Consensus EPS $0.85, Consensus Revenues $19501.09 mln

Iris Pang, the economist for Greater China at ING, notes that China's industrial profits surged in March and believes that credit growth should continue to support smaller manufacturers.

• Profits at China's industrial firms jumped by 13.9% year on year in March but was -3.3% in 1Q19, due to the drag from the14% decline in the first two months of 2019. 
• The big difference of profit growth between March and 1Q19 is probably because of the strong yuan loan growth in March at 51%YoY, especially loans for small private firms, which is a policy objective directed from the central government.
• Account receivables rose 6.5%YoY at the end of March. This means there are manufacturers that still cannot fulfil their payments, and this remains a key risk in the manufacturing sector as a whole. This is because the financial chain among manufacturers is fragile, and can be easily broken when some manufacturers miss their payments persistently.
• We think the government probably sees this risk too, and therefore is likely to continue to use strong credit growth to support small private manufacturers. Having said that, we don't think the  51%YoY loan growth, as seen in March will be seen again in April. Instead, we think credit is likely to grow at a speed of 10%YoY. 
• For light industries such as textiles, shoes, toys, it may be good news that the central government is pushing to upgrade home electrical appliances in some rural areas. This policy was used in 2009-2010 and was successful. Though we don't think the same degree of positive effect will repeat itself in 2019, as rural households' living standards have improved, but at least this policy should be of some help.
• For the automobile industry, the same scheme is being pushed to upgrade combustion cars to electric cars, but this is slightly more difficult as electric cars charging infrastructure in rural areas may need to considerably improve before there is a substantial increase in demand for such cars.

Krishen Rangasamy, an analyst at National Bank Financial (NBF), explains that the global economy continues to struggle amid trade barriers as the slowdown of trade, and hence world GDP growth (the two are highly correlated), in the second half of last year coincided with the U.S. imposition of tariffs on various trade partners.

• Weakness seems to have extended to this year as world trade volumes contracted again in Q1 after slumping the prior quarter. Major exporting economies, including the Eurozone and Japan, are not surprisingly struggling the most from the trade slowdown.
• This is the first time since the 2008-09 global recession that trade volumes have contracted for two consecutive quarters. No wonder forecasters keep lowering their estimates for 2019 global GDP growth. Like us, the IMF just trimmed its 2019 growth forecast for the world economy to 3.3%.

According to the New York Times' report, the U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Sunday that trade talks between the United States and China were entering a critical point as an American delegation heads to Beijing this week to try to finalize a long-awaited deal.

Mr. Mnuchin, one of U.S. lead negotiators, said that while the two sides are closer to an agreement, more work remains to be done, and that the talks are nearing a point where they would either produce a deal or end with no agreement.

“We’re getting into the final laps,” Mr. Mnuchin said in an interview on the sideline of the Milken Institute Global Conference in Los Angeles.

At the same time, Mnuchin declined to predict whether the negotiations would be wrapped up by the end of June but said he believes that both countries want to reach a deal. He also would not say if a breakdown in the talks would lead Mr. Trump to impose more tariffs.

“I think both sides have a desire to reach an agreement,” he said. “We’ve made a lot of progress.”

The Treasury Secretary also declined to provide details of the remaining obstacles, but he said this round of talks would continue to focus on China’s longstanding practice of subsidizing its industries. 

Mnuchin is heading to China on Monday with Robert E. Lighthizer, the Trump administration’s top trade negotiator, to try to resolve the remaining sticking points between the countries. Chinese officials are expected to come to Washington on May 8 to continue - and possibly conclude - the negotiations.

• A way forward in talks with Labour has yet to be found
• Further talks will continue again this afternoon
• Would like to introduce withdrawal agreement bill as soon as possible
• But need to ensure it has a realistic prospects of passing parliament vote
• No scheduled talks between May and Corbyn at the moment

According to the estimates of analysts at TD Securities, China’s official April manufacturing PMI to increase to 50.9 from 50.5 in March.

• China’s March data dump broadly beat expectations and revealed that stimulus measures were kicking in. April will likely maintain this constructive tone, with further signs of stabilization.
• Forward-looking components of the March CPI such as manufacturing new orders and expected production moved higher. Separately, US and China continue to edge towards a trade deal. The upturn in electricity output and increased lending, also suggest some improvement in manufacturing activity and sentiment.

Bert Colijn, a senior economist at ING, notes that today’s eurozone indicators provide a wealth of information about the state of the economy, and most of them aren't pointing towards a growth acceleration. Even though the cause for improvement seems to be there, nothing is showing up, he adds.

• Eurozone lending growth is usually a very steady indicator but has had a bit of a bumpy ride over Q1. After a decline in growth in January and a strong recovery in February, lending in March once again disappointed. Loan growth to households decreased slightly from 3.3% to 3.2% YoY and seems to have plateaued. Loan growth to non-financial businesses declined to 3.5% and even though February data was strong, the peak in loan growth of 4.3% in September 2018 is well behind us. Uncertainty and lack of confidence in the business world seem to have a material impact as financial conditions remain very favourable for the moment.
• Indeed, economic sentiment declined again in April as the Economic Sentiment Indicator dropped from 105.4 to 104. This rounds out a poor start of the surveys to Q2 as the PMI, Ifo and consumer confidence also fell this month. The difference between industry and services remains striking as industrial confidence declined markedly while services confidence remained stable. Especially increased pessimism about current order books and production expectations are a cause for concern. 
• One would expect some green shoots to emerge, as the euro has depreciated, we've seen positive macro data from China and the US and one-off factors are still expected to reverse. Indeed, one encouraging sign is that export orders have been more positively assessed in April, which could be taken as a green shoot for the industry. In the service sector, business expectations are improving again as consumer spending is set to continue to contribute positively to GDP.
• So although incoming data hasn't exactly turned a corner yet, hope for a growth pickup in the coming months remains alive.  

Hans Redeker, Morgan Stanley Global Head of FX strategy offered a bearish view on the US dollar in the coming months and said:.

• Thinks that the dollar is near its cycle peak.

• US Q1 GDP report was a case of 'buy the rumor, sell the fact'.

• Says that the report was by no means convincing.

• PCE data later should show more moderation in inflation.

• That will put the spotlight on the Fed i.e. will they take steps towards a rate cut?

• There are signs that the global economy is recovering.

• The Chinese economy is improving and will have spillover effects to other economies.

• The time lag from Chinese rebound takes about two to six months.

Analysts at TD Securities are anticipating March personal spending to have closed the quarter on a strong note and advanced at its fastest pace since Sep 2017 at 0.8% m/m, up from 0.2% in Feb (also TD forecast).

“In the details, we expect a 0.4% m/m increase in services spending to be the main driver of the March rebound, with a rise in spending on both durables and nondurables also helping on the headline. Moreover, we forecast income to rise 0.4% m/m, a stronger pace than in both Jan and Feb. The core PCE deflator is expected to come in on the weaker side in February and March, largely reflecting the lower-than-expected core PCE print for Q1 released on Friday. The consensus expects the annual rate to dip marginally to 1.7% in March from 1.8% in January.”

According to the report from European Commission, in April 2019, the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) decreased markedly in both the euro area (by 1.6 points to 104.0) and the EU (by 1.5 points to 103.7). The deterioration of euro-area sentiment resulted from lower confidence in industry, retail trade and, to a lesser extent, in construction and among consumers, while confidence remained unchanged in services.

The strong decrease in industry confidence (−2.5) resulted from managers' more pessimistic views on all three components, i.e. production expectations, the current level of overall order books and the stocks of finished products.

The decrease in consumer confidence (−0.7) reflected households’ more pessimistic expectations about their future financial situation and, in particular, the general economic situation, while their assessments of their past financial situation and their intentions to make major purchases remained broadly stable.

The strong decline in retail trade confidence (−1.4) was driven by more negative views on both the present and expected business situation, while retailers’ assessment of the adequacy of the volume of stocks remained broadly stable.

Decreasing construction confidence (−0.8) reflected managers' more pessimistic employment expectations, while their assessment of the level of order books improved.

Analysts at TD Securities note that China’s industrial profits data released on Saturday revealed a 13.9% y/y increase, its biggest gain since July 2018.

“Profits were still down -3.3% YTD y/y in March, following a -14% y/y decline in Feb. The auto sector in particular registered a sharp improvement in March. Profits growth was based on an encouraging 7.2% YTD increase in sales. The data reveals yet more signs of stabilisation in China’s economy in the wake of a raft of decent March data and will offer further relief to its markets after China stocks recorded their worst week in 6-months last week.”

According to the report from European Central Bank, the annual growth rate of the broad monetary aggregate M3 increased to 4.5% in March 2019 from 4.3% in February, averaging 4.2% in the three months up to March. The components of M3 showed the following developments. The annual growth rate of the narrower aggregate M1, which comprises currency in circulation and overnight deposits, increased to 7.4% in March from 6.6% in February. The annual growth rate of short-term deposits other than overnight deposits (M2-M1) stood at -0.2% in March, unchanged from the previous month. The annual growth rate of marketable instruments (M3-M2) was -4.9% in March, compared with -0.2% in February.

ECB also said that annual growth rate of adjusted loans to households stood at 3.2% in March, compared with 3.3% in February. Annual growth rate of adjusted loans to non-financial corporations decreased to 3.5% in March from 3.8% in February

Poland is unlikely to leave the European Union, even if the ruling eurosceptic Law and Justice (PiS) party wins re-election this year, EU executive head Jean-Claude Juncker said.

In response to a question by the Polish daily, Rzeczpospolitaon on whether there will be a "Polexit" after parliamentary elections in Poland in the autumn, Juncker said: "No."

"Poland is with us (the European Union) because we have common values," Juncker said.

His statement came as Poland's biggest opposition front has repeatedly warned that Law and Justice could eventually lead the country out of the EU.

According to analysts at National Bank Financial, for the Canadian markets, the release of February GDP data will attract the most attention.

“Positive contributions are expected from the retail and the wholesale sectors based on previously-released reports for these indicators. That said, these contributions were likely offset by a poor showing in the manufacturing sector judging from already-reported shipments. If falling home sales in the month are any guide, real estate could also have acted as a drag. All told, we expect GDP to come in flat in the second month of the year, following a healthy +0.3% print the month before. Markit’s Manufacturing PMI for April will also be available this week.”

The president of the World Economic Forum is hopeful for a breakthrough as the U.S. prepares to send a high-level delegation to Beijing this week for trade negotiations.

“I think they are now pretty close to the moment where there will be a breakthrough, ” Børge Brende, president of the World Economic Forum, told.

U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin will meet Chinese Vice Premier Liu He in China on Tuesday. They will be discussing trade issues including intellectual property, forced technology transfer, non-tariff barriers, agriculture, services, purchases, and enforcement.

“I think it is in the common interest of the largest economy in the world, the U.S., and the second-largest economy in the world, China, to find solutions on those trade issues. That implies that both of them have to show flexibility in these negotiations,” Brende added.

“If they find a way out to break that impasse that has been created, I think that can also add additional growth to the global economy — that’s needed. It can create new jobs.” Brende said.

China’s stabilizing economy will likely provide a notable boost to the Eurozone in the coming months, according to economists at Goldman Sachs.

"The world’s second largest economy’s annualised growth rate stabilized at 6.4 percent in the first quarter with key manufacturing PMI indicators returning to expansion territory above 50.00. There is typically a three-month lag before the rebound in China’s economy spillover to Eurozone and Germany, in particular, the investment bank’s economists mentioned in a note. So, with China’s economy stabilizing in the first quarter, the Eurozone economy could show signs of life in the second half of this year (we expect Eurozone’s growth rate accelerate to 1.5% in the second half of this year)".

Mitul Kotecha, Senior Emerging Market Strategist at TD Securities, made upbeat remarks on the US dollar, in light of the recent dovish FOMC.

• Dollar unlikely to come under significant pressure.

• Data outside of the US still looks pretty weak.

• Central banks globally have become increasingly dovish.

• Although the Fed is dovish, markets have priced in that sense of dovishness.

• Doesn't expect any change in policy in this week's Fed meeting.

• Even if Powell sounds more dovish, it isn't going to derail the run in the dollar.

• Difficult to short the dollar since it offers the highest carry among G10 currencies.

Slowing global growth and elevated tensions in trade and geopolitics are posing economic challenges for countries in the Middle East, according to the International Monetary Fund’s latest report.

“Global developments are affecting the outlook for this year, namely the slowdown in growth especially on trade, the volatility in the oil price, as well as also the global financing conditions, in additional to a certain number of country specific issues,” Jihad Azour, the IMF’s director of the Middle East and Central Asia, told.

The Regional Economic Outlook report also highlighted how volatile oil prices are negatively affecting some countries, while others are grappling with rising public debt.

For oil-importing countries in the region, growth is expected to slow, declining from 4.2 percent in 2018 to a projected 3.6 percent this year. However, that figure is expected to rebound to 4.2 percent from 2020 to 2023.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1267 (2634)

$1.1251 (859)

$1.1228 (262)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1158

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1112 (987)

$1.1091 (2827)

$1.1045 (1974)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date May, 3 is 94298 contracts (according to data from April, 26) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1350 (6853);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3064 (335)

$1.3027 (1064)

$1.3000 (209)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2936

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2878 (2077)

$1.2838 (1399)

$1.2794 (1755)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date May, 3 is 25582 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3500 (2425);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date May, 3 is 23499 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2750 (2380);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.92 versus 0.94 from the previous trading day according to data from April, 26

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.