CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 24-08-2011

Gainers
Symb     Last     Change     Chg %
LEE.N     0.73     +0.11     +17.87
MTG.N     1.96     +0.27     +15.98
SWFT.N     7.64     +0.70     +10.09
RRTS.N     14.96     +1.35     +9.92
INN.N     7.30     +0.60     +8.96
Losers
Symb     Last     Change     Chg %
IPHI.N     7.35     -3.15     -30.00
AEO.N     10.24     -1.38     -11.88
ARL.N     1.76     -0.20     -10.20
EXK.N     10.35     -0.96     -8.49
JAG.N     5.66     -0.52     -8.41

The dollar gained versus all of its 16 most-traded peers amid speculation about whether Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will say this week the central bank is willing to provide more stimulus for the economy.
Currencies of higher-yielding countries including New Zealand and South Africa fell as stocks fluctuated, damping risk appetite. Equities gained earlier amid bets Bernanke will say Aug. 26 at a conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, that the Fed will take additional steps to spur the economy that may include a third round of debt purchases, or quantitative easing.
“The market is starting to retrace risk ahead of Friday’s Jackson Hole speech, and the dollar has got a bid,” said Jack Spitz, managing director of foreign exchange at National Bank of Canada in Toronto. “As we get closer to Friday, the market will come to the conclusion that Bernanke’s speech will likely not include QE3, but will probably allude to it, that it’s a potential and will be left on the table.”

The stock market is now mired near the neutral line following its recent downturn. And although the Dow is still up with a narrow gain, it is about 90 points off of its session high. Bank of America (BAC 6.87, +0.57) is still the best performing blue chip

Crude oil futures have spent most of its morning session in positive territory and in recent trade the energy component hit new session highs of $86.33/barrel. Ahead of inventory data, crude had pulled back to the unchanged line near $85.44. Following the data, which showed a draw of 2.2 mln barrels vs. consensus which called for a build of 1.4 mln barrels, crude put in a small rally and is now up 0.3% at $85.68/barrel.
Natural gas futures sold off after floor trading began and quickly fell into negative territory. Nat gas fell as low as $3.94/MMBtu and is currently down 1.0% at $3.95/MMBtu.
Precious metals fell off a cliff earlier this morning. The sell-off began about two hours ago, which pulled gold futures down from around $1852.00/oz to the current session lows of $1767.60/oz. Silver futures lost over $2/oz. after falling below the $40.00/oz. level. Currently, gold is down 4.3% at $1782.50, while silver is 4.1% lower at $40.55/oz.

EUR/USD: $1.4350, $1.4370, $1.4380-85, $1.4500, $1.4520 
USD/JPY: Y75.00, Y75.50, Y75.80, Y76.50, Y77.00, Y77.10
EUR/JPY: Y110.10, Y107.40
GBP/USD: $1.6500, $1.6300
USD/CHF: Chf0.8150
AUD/USD: $1.0450, $1.0550

Data:

US data include Durable goods orders at 12:30 GMT, followed by US Housing Price Index at 14:00 GMT.

Later investors will be looking for an oil stocks data from EIA at 14:30 GMT.

EUR/USD
Offers: $1.4470, $1.4490/00
Bids: $1.4400, $1.4380/70

GBP/USD
Offers: $1.6515/25
Bids: $1.6425/20

USD/JPY
Offers: Y76.85/90, Y77.20/25, Y77.40/45
Bids: Y76.45/40, Y76.35/30, Y75.95/90

AUD/USD
Offers: $1.0590/00
Bids: $1.0445/40, $1.0390/80, $1.0365/60

EUR/JPY:
Offers: Y111.00/10, Y111.50/60, Y112.35/40
Bids: Y110.05/00, Y109.30/20

Data released:
00:00  Australia Conference Board Australia Leading Index (Jun)     -0.8%        -0.1%

The yen advanced after traders weren't inspired by Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda’s announcement of a $100 billion package designed to cope with persistent strength in Japan’s currency.
The yen erased an earlier drop against the dollar as Noda said currency reserves will be released to a state export credit agency to help overseas investment.
The Ministry of Finance will bolster monitoring of the currency market, requiring major financial institutions to disclose trading positions, Noda also said.
"Today’s announcement is unlikely to have much impact on the exchange rate", said Mitul Kotecha at Credit Agricole CIB.
Japan’s currency rose even as Moody’s Investors Service cut the nation’s credit rating.
EUR/USD tested $1.4436 in recovering from overnight lows on $1.4390. But it failed to hold above and retreated to earlier lows. But later rate rose to a new session high on $1.4450.
GBP/USD holds within the range, limited by $1.6470/$1.6515.
USD/JPY fell from Y76.90 to Y76.50.

Later EU Industrial New Orders come at 09:00 GMT.

US data include Durable goods orders at 12:30 GMT, followed by US Housing Price Index at 14:00 GMT.

Later investors will be looking for an oil stocks data from EIA at 14:30 GMT.

EUR/USD: $1.4350, $1.4370, $1.4380-85, $1.4500, $1.4520
USD/JPY: Y75.00, Y75.50, Y75.80, Y76.50, Y77.00, Y77.10
EUR/JPY: Y110.10, Y107.40
GBP/USD: $1.6500, $1.6300
USD/CHF: Chf0.8150
AUD/USD: $1.0450, $1.0550

EUR/USD dropped from around $1.4398 to $1.4381 on initial react to weak Germany Ifo data (108.7 vs 110.6 expected). But traders bougth rate on dips to lift the euro up to $1.4430.

Majors close
Nikkei 225 +104.88 +1.22% 8,733.01
FTSE 100 +34.12 +0.67%     5,129.42
CAC 40     +33.01     +1.08%     3,084.37
DAX +58.60 +1.07% 5,532.38
Dow     +217.90 +2.01% 11,072.55
Nasdaq     +66.71     +2.84% 2,412.09
S&P 500 +25.21     +2.24% 1,149.03
10 Year Yield     2.11%     +0.02     --
Oil     $85.88     +1.46     +1.73%
Gold     $1,866.80     -25.10     -1.33%

Japanese stocks rose for the first time in five days as exporters climbed on speculation the U.S. Federal Reserve will announce additional measures to shore up the recovery in the world’s biggest economy.
Canon Inc. (7751) gained 3%.
Nintendo Co. jumped on speculation the shares have been oversold.
Inpex Corp. gained 2.9% after oil prices rose.
Toyota Motor Corp. (7203) climbed 2.3%. The automaker also rose after saying it would collaborate with Ford Motor Co. to develop a hybrid system for pickup trucks.
Utilities rose after Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda, a candidate to replace Japan’s Prime Minister Naoto Kan, said the country may not be able to do without nuclear power.
Kansai Electric Power gained 2.8%.
Chubu Electric Power Co. advanced 1.9%.

European stocks rose for a second day amid continuing speculation the Federal Reserve will take action to bolster the economy and as Chinese manufacturing data exceeded forecasts.
UBS AG (UBSN) advanced 2.1% after saying it plans to cut 3,500 jobs to trim costs.
Charter International Plc (CHTR) soared 20% as the welding and automation-equipment maker said it’s in takeover talks with a potential rival bidder to Melrose Plc.
National Bank of Greece SA (ETE) sank to a 14-year low as the nation’s bonds fell.
Chinese manufacturing may contract at a slower pace in August as the world’s second-biggest economy weathers slumping global confidence, according to a preliminary purchasing- managers index compiled by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics. The reading of 49.8 for August compared with 49.3 last month.
A composite index based on a survey of euro-area purchasing managers in both services and manufacturing remained at 51.1 in August, while  economists had forecast a drop to 50.
Stocks pared their advance as a gauge of German investor confidence fell more than economists forecast to the lowest in more than 2 1/2 years in August on concern Europe’s debt crises will curb growth.
The ZEW Center for European Economic Research in Mannheim said its index of investor and analyst expectations dropped to -37.6 from -15.1 in July. That’s the lowest since December 2008.

U.S. stocks rose, pushing the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index up the most in a week, as investors speculated the Federal Reserve will act to spur the economy and the government’s list of “problem” banks declined for the first time since 2006.
Monsanto Co. (MON), Chevron Corp. (CVX) and Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) added at least 3%.
The Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index climbed 2.2%, breaking a five-day losing streak.
Financial shares in the S&P 500 reversed losses, rising 2.4%.
Bank of America Corp. (BAC) pared its loss to 2.3% from 6.4%.
Stocks briefly pared gains after a 5.9-magnitude earthquake in Virginia shook Washington and New York.
Central bankers from around the world meet this week in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, for a conference that last year resulted in Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke signaling a second round of asset purchases, known as QE2, that buoyed asset markets.

Data released:
06:58     France     PMI (August) flash    49.3    49.7    50.5
06:58     France     PMI services (August) flash    56.1    53.9    54.2
07:28     Germany     PMI (August) flash    52.0    51.0    52.0
07:28     Germany     PMI services (August) flash    50.4    52.0    52.9
07:58     EU(17)     PMI (August) flash    49.7    49.5    50.4
07:58     EU(17)     PMI services (August) flash    51.5    51.0    51.6
09:00     Germany     ZEW economic expectations index (August)    -37.6    -25.0    -15.1
10:00     UK     CBI industrial order books balance (August)    +1%    -13%    -10%
10:00     UK     CBI industrial output balance (August)    +13%    -    6%
12:30     Canada     Retail sales (June)    0.7%    0.6%    0.3 (0.1)%
12:30     Canada     Retail sales excluding auto (June)    -0.1%    0.3%    0.6 (0.5)%
12:55     USA     Redbook (20.08)              
14:00     USA     New home sales (July)    298K    315K    300 (312)K

The dollar weakened Tuesday as speculation that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke may signal further steps to boost the U.S. economy damped demand for safer assets.
The New Zealand and Australian dollars led gains versus the greenback after reports showed manufacturing from China to Europe exceeded economists’ forecasts and before Bernanke’s speech on Aug. 26 in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
Demand for higher-yielding assets gained today as a preliminary gauge of Chinese manufacturing in August slipped to 49.8, according to a reading of the Purchasing Managers’ Index reported by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics.

EUR/USD rallied from $1.4360 to $1.4500. But rate failed to break above the figure and retreated to $1.4375.
GBP/USD printed high on $1.6570 before set stable within the $1.6384/$1.6540 range.
USD/JPY fell from Y76.50, but later recovered to Y76.74.

The main event in Europe will be the release of Germany's IFO index at 08:00 GMT.

Later EU Industrial New Orders come at 09:00 GMT.

US data include Durable goods orders at 12:30 GMT, followed by US Housing Price Index at 14:00 GMT.

Later investors will be looking for an oil stocks data from EIA at 14:30 GMT.

Resistance 3: Y78.20

Resistance 2: Y77.80
Resistance 1: Y77.20

Current price: Y76.58
Support 1:Y75.90              
Support 2:Y75.00
Support 3:Y74.30

Comments: Rate remains under pressure after it rocketed to Y77.20 on Monday. Intervention concerns dragges the rate down today, but Friday's records at Y75.90 may cap the decline as a strong support. Below target is at Y75.00 with a break lower opens the way to Y74.30 (channel line from Dec 2008). Above Y77.20 resistance comes at Y77.80 (38.2% Fibo of Y80.20 - Y75.90 decline), then - at Y78.20.

Japan shares are slightly down in the final hour, with Tokyo Electric Power Co. Inc. (9501) the biggest loser in percentage terms, down 4.55% at Y399. The Nikkei 225 Index is slightly down 0.20% at 8715.89 in the final hour of trading.

Nikkei 225 +104.88 +1.22% 8,733.01
FTSE 100 +34.12 +0.67%     5,129.42
CAC 40     +33.01     +1.08%     3,084.37
DAX +58.60 +1.07% 5,532.38
Dow     +217.90 +2.01% 11,072.55
Nasdaq     +66.71     +2.84% 2,412.09
S&P 500 +25.21     +2.24% 1,149.03
10 Year Yield     2.11%     +0.02     --
Oil     $85.88     +1.46     +1.73%
Gold     $1,866.80     -25.10     -1.33%

Resistance 3: Chf0.8140
Resistance 2: Chf0.8010/15
Resistance 1: Chf0.7950
Current price: Chf0.7913
Support 1: Chf0.7790
Support 2: Chf0.7660
Support 3: Chf0.7540

Comments: Rate was in a narrow range in Asia resistance is around session's highs on Chf0.7950, stronger - at Chf0.8010/15 (Aug 17 highs). Further rise may extend Chf0.8140 (channel line from the mid-Feb). Strong support comes at Chf0.7790 (23.6% Fibo of Chf0.7070 - Chf0.8020). Below losses may widen to Chf0.7660 (38.6%) and Chf0.7540 (Aug 12 lows).

Resistance 3:$1.6660
Resistance 2:$1.6620
Resistance 1: $1.6570
Current price: $1.6502
Support 1: $1.6420
Support 2: $1.6360
Support 3: $1.6300/10

Comments: Rate holds in the middle of recent days range, corrected after yesterday's rise to $1.6570 (minor resistance). Further resistance is near Monday's highs on $1.6570, stronger - at $1.6620 (Friday's high). Further rise may extend to $1.6660. Support is near $1.6420 (38.2% of the rise from Aug 11). Below losses may widen to $1.6360 (50%, $1.6350 - Aug 17 low) and $1.6300/10 (61.8%).

Resistance 3: $1.4580
Resistance 2: $1.4520         
Resistance 1: $1.4500
Current price: $1.4413
Support 1: $1.4380
Support 2: $1.4340/45
Support 3: $1.4260

Comments: Rate tries to recover with resistance is around yesterday's high on $1.4500 (also channel line from May 04). Further resistance comes at $1.4520 (Aug 17 high). Further rise may extend to $1.4580 (Jul 04 high). Support remains at $1.4380 (overnight lows). Below there is a chance for a test of $1.4340/45 (Aug 22 lows). Stronger level - at $1.4260 (Friday's low).

08:00     Germany     IFO business climate index (August)         111.0    112.9
09:00     EU(17)     Industrial orders (June)         0.5%    3.6%
09:00     EU(17)     Industrial orders (June) Y/Y          11.9%    15.5%
12:30     USA     Durable goods orders (July)         2.0%    -2.1%
12:30     USA     Durable goods orders excluding transportation (July)         -    0.1%
12:30     USA     Durable goods orders excluding defence (July)         -    -1.8%
23:01     UK     Nationwide consumer confidence (July)         45    51