CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 20-06-2018

Major US stock markets ended the trading mixed: S & P 500 and Nasdaq rose against the backdrop of a rise in the price of technology companies and media, while the Dow fell slightly against the backdrop of escalating trade tensions between the US and China.

In addition, investors analyzed a new portion of statistical data for the United States. The current account deficit in the US expanded in the first quarter, helped by the increase in imports of goods, the Commerce Department reported in a report that also indicated that US companies paid more than $ 300 billion in dividends from repatriation income. The Ministry of Trade said that the current account deficit, which measures the flow of goods, services and investments to and from the country, for the first three months of the year increased by $ 8.0 billion to $ 124.1 billion, or 2.5% of the national economy .

However, according to the National Association of Realtors, home sales in the secondary market fell for the second month in a row, as only the northeast region showed acceleration of activity. Total home sales in the secondary market decreased by 0.4% to a seasonally adjusted 5.43 million units in May from a revised 5.45 million units in April. With the decrease last month, sales are now 3.0% lower than a year ago and fell year on year for three consecutive months.

Most of the components of DOW finished trading in positive territory (16 out of 30). The leader of growth was shares of Intel Corporation (INTC, + 1.12%). Outsider were the shares of The Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV, -2.42%).

Almost all sectors of S & P recorded a rise. The services sector grew most (+ 0.6%). Decrease showed only the sector of conglomerates (-0.2%).

At closing:

Dow 24,657.80 -42.41 -0.17%

S&P 500 2,767.32 +4.73 +0.17%

Nasdaq 100 7,781.52 +55.93 +0.72%

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 5.9 million barrels from the previous week. At 426.5 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 2% below the five year average for this time of year.

Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 3.3 million barrels last week and are about 6% above the five year range. Finished gasoline and blending components inventories both increased last week.

Distillate fuel inventories increased by 2.7 million barrels last week and are about 14% below the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 3.2 million barrels last week and are about 15% below the five year average for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 0.2 million barrels last week.

• U.S. Inflation Is Getting Close to Target

• That Calls for Continued Gradual Rate Increases

Existing-home sales fell back for the second straight month in May, as only the Northeast region saw an uptick in activity, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, decreased 0.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.43 million in May from downwardly revised 5.45 million in April. With last month's decline, sales are now 3.0 percent below a year ago and have fallen year-over-year for three straight months.

U.S. stock-index futures rose moderately on Wednesday, as fears of U.S.-China trade war eased somewhat.

Global Stocks:

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

Target price changes before the market open

Starbucks (SBUX) target lowered to $55 from $58 at Stifel

Downgrades before the market open

Starbucks (SBUX) downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley

Starbucks (SBUX) downgraded to Market Perform at Telsey Advisory Group; target lowered to $60 from $70

Starbucks (SBUX) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BTIG Research

Citigroup (C) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank

The U.S. current-account deficit increased to $124.1 billion (preliminary) in the first quarter of 2018 from $116.1 billion (revised) in the fourth quarter of 2017, according to statistics released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The deficit was 2.5 percent of current-dollar gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter, up from 2.4 percent in the fourth quarter.

The $8.0 billion increase in the current-account deficit reflected an $8.1 billion increase in the deficit on goods and relatively small and nearly offsetting changes in the balances on services, primary income, and secondary income.

FedEx (FDX) reported Q4 FY 2018 earnings of $5.91 per share (versus $4.25 in Q4 FY 2017), beating analysts' consensus estimate of $5.71.

The company's quarterly revenues amounted to $17.314 bln (+10.1% y/y), generally in-line with analysts' consensus estimate of $17.239 bln.

The company also issued guidance for FY 2019, projecting EPS of $17.00-17.60 (versus analysts' consensus estimate of $17.47) at revenues of +9% to ~$71.34 bln (versus analysts' consensus estimate of $69.41 bln).

FDX fell to $258.10 (-0.11%) in pre-market trading.

• Expects OPEC to Remain Insulated From Politics

• OPEC-Non-OPEC Alliance Turning Into 'Catholic Marriage'

• OPEC/Non-OPEC Agreement Has Succeeded in Bringing OECD Oil Stocks to 5-Year-Average

• Calls for 'Institutionalization' of OPEC/Non-OPEC Supply Agreement

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1790 (2256)

$1.1733 (881)

$1.1697 (128)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1576

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1540 (2839)

$1.1506 (4614)

$1.1468 (4812)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date July, 9 is 100090 contracts (according to data from June, 19) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (4812);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3391 (692)

$1.3329 (202)

$1.3267 (160)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3157

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3117 (2065)

$1.3087 (1571)

$1.3053 (2443)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date July, 9 is 22878 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3650 (2444);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date July, 9 is 26816 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3250 (2528);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.17 versus 1.16 from the previous trading day according to data from June, 19.

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

Seoul-based bitcoin exchange Bithumb said Wednesday it had lost over $30 million as the result of being hacked, the second cyber attack in two weeks to hit a major South Korean cryptocurrency exchange as safety concerns hamper the industry and weigh on prices.

In May 2018 the index of producer prices for industrial products rose by 2.7% compared with the corresponding month of the preceding year. In April the annual rate of change all over had been 2.0%, as reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis).

Compared with the preceding month April the overall index rose by 0.5% in May 2018 (+0.5% in April 2018 and +0.1% in March 2018).

In May 2018 the price indices of all main industrial groups increased compared with May 2017: Energy prices were up 5.5%, though the development of prices of the different energy carriers diverged. Prices of petroleum products were up 12.5%, whereas prices of electricity increased by 8.0% and prices of natural gas (distribution) rose by 1.8%. Prices of intermediate goods were up 2.6%. Prices of non-durable consumer goods rose by 0.8% and of durable consumer goods by 1.6%, whereas prices of capital goods increased by 1.2%.

The overall index disregarding energy was 1.7% up on May 2017 and 0.2% compared with April 2018.

• Consumer confidence fell in June, taking it slightly below its long-run average.

• The drop in confidence was widespread, and is consistent with the recent signs that the edge has come off the economy's upturn.

• More households say that now is a good time to buy major household items, but this may reflect an expectation of price rises rather than a greater appetite to spend.

• Households' inclination to save remains low.