CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 19-08-2011

EUR/USD holds $1.4385. Rate remains within a range for the last couple hours, limited by $1.4378/$1.4451. Support remains at $1.4600 - 100-daily MA with offers at session high on $1.4450.

EUR/JPY holds at Y110.08. Offers noted at Y110.20/25 ahead of Y110.95/00. Reported bids seen at Y109.40/35 and Y109.05/00. Further bids at Y108.60/65 (Y108.61 12 Aug low). The cross is currently Y109.98.

The major market averages are now trading in negative territory as the Dow losse of 0.7% while the S&P and Nasdaq are both down 0.5%.
Gold miners are outperforming today as gold printed records just above $1880 per ounce. Rally of gold lifted the gold stocks such as Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM 51.35, +1.45), Newmont Mining (NEM 60.31, +1.89), Goldcorp (GG 51.37, +1.47).

The yen rallied to the strongest level since World War II versus the dollar as the U.S. economic slowdown and Europe’s debt crisis stoked concern global growth is slumping bolstered the refuge appeal of Japan’s currency.
The franc rallied even after the Swiss National Bank said this week it may take further steps to curb the currency’s strength.
The euro erased losses versus the dollar and yen on speculation the Federal Reserve will consider measures to help ease financial- market turmoil. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke speaks at an economic conference next week in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
The euro gained versus the dollar after Spanish Finance Minister Elena Salgado said measures approved today to reduce pharmaceutical spending will save the nation 2.4 billion euros ($3.5 billion) in a full year.
Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda signaled he’s ready to do another “surprise” intervention in markets to curb yen gains. Noda said yesterday he “will keep monitoring markets carefully” and that intervention “is a measure of last resort - it would be meaningless if it were not a surprise.”
The Japanese currency has gained 5.5% over the past three months. The franc, the biggest gainer, has risen 11%, while the dollar is down 2%.
Gold rose to a record above $1,880 an ounce in New York.

EUR/JPY holds within a tight range around Y109.90. On the topside offers noted at Y110.20/25 ahead of Y110.95/00. Reported bids seen at Y109.40/35 and Y109.05/00. Further bids at Y108.60/65 (Y108.61 12 Aug low). The cross is currently Y109.98.

USD/JPY is currently trading around Y76.21, bouncing off the new lifetime low Y75.95. Support now seen at Y75.50 with reported barrier interest and stops set on a break. Large bids at Y75.00 and further stops set. Offers noted at Y76.35/40 ahead of Y76.60/65.

"The bad news is that financial market turbulence now weakens the real economy's already stressed underpinnings."

EUR/USD: $1.4200, $1.4275, $1.4315
USD/JPY: Y76.00, Y76.35, Y76.50
GBP/USD: $1.6170
USD/CHF Chf0.7850
EUR/AUD A$1.3600
USD/CAD C$0.9700
AUD/USD: $1.0300, $1.0500, $1.0545
AUD/JPY: Y79.85, Y79.75
AUD/CAD: C$1.0365

Equity futures are pointing to a sharply lower open as the Dow trades down 120 points versus fair value on worries of a global economic slowdown and the lingering European sovereign debt crisis. The weakness comes despite corporate earnings in the United States continuing to exceed forecasts. Gap (GPS), Marvell (MRVL), and Salesforce.com (CRM) all beat on both the top and bottom lines. Another record setting day for gold saw the yellow metal climb to near $1880 per ounce before easing to its current $1860. Meanwhile, Treasuries are holding slight losses despite the weakness in equities. The 10-yr yield is higher by a couple of basis points at 2.092%.     

But he still expects H2 GDP to outpace the first half of the year. He reiterates the FOMC's anticipation that inflation will moderate to at or below a level consistent with the Fed's mandate.

"Risks to previous projection for growth are now very clearly to the downside and we are lowering forecasted growth in Q4 to 1.0%. We are also lowering 12Q1 growth to 0.5% from 1.5%. In sum, over the next four quarters we don't see growth that is much faster than the growth that took place in the first half of this year."

Data released:
08:30     United Kingdom     Retail Sales (MoM)     July     +0,8%     +0,3%     
08:30     United Kingdom     Retail Sales (YoY)     July     +0,4%     +0,1%

The dollar and yen advanced against most of their major counterparts as Asian stocks extended a worldwide rout in equities amid speculation European banks lack sufficient capital.
 The euro slid for a fourth day versus the yen as traders bet that the European Central Bank will cut its benchmark rate.
“The situation in Europe seems to be deteriorating by the day,” said Chris Weston, an institutional dealer at IG Markets in Melbourne. “If we do see an escalation and people start focusing again on credit markets like they did in 2008, the dollar will be back in vogue against the risk currencies.”
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 3.2 percent after the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index tumbled 4.5 percent yesterday. Treasury yields tumbled to record lows in New York as investors sought the safest assets.
For the week, the U.S. currency is set for a 0.3 percent loss against the euro and a 0.2 percent drop against the yen.
Australia’s dollar fell as Citigroup Inc. cut forecasts for U.S. growth amid concern about a global economic slowdown, damping demand for higher-yielding assets

EUR/USD initially rose to $1.4340, but failed to hold above the figure and fell to a new session lows around $1.4270.
GBP/USD trades in the middle of the $1.6530-$1.6440 range.
USD/JPY trades near Y76.40.

UK data includes the Public Sector Finances for July at 0830GMT. US events start at 1230GMT, when New York Fed President William Dudley speaks on the regional and national economic outlook to the Meadowlands Chamber of Commerce in Lyndhurst, New Jersey. The main US data release for Friday is the BLS State Unemployment data, at 1400GMT. At 1745GMT, Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto is due to deliver a speech on the economic outlook and the financial services industry to the Community Bankers Association of Ohio in Columbus. US Commercial and Industrial Loans data is due at 2015GMT.

Data released:
08:30     United Kingdom     Retail Sales (MoM)     July     +0,8%     +0,3%     +0.2%
08:30     United Kingdom     Retail Sales (YoY)     July     +0,4%     +0,1%     0.0%
12:30     U.S.     CPI, Y/Y     July     +3,6%     +3,3%     +3.6%
12:30     U.S.     CPI excluding food and energy, m/m     July     +0,3%     +0,2%     +0.5%
12:30     U.S.     CPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y     July     +1,6%     +1,7%     +1.8%
12:30     Canada     Leading Indicators, m/m     July     0,1%     0,2%     0.2%
12:30     Canada     Wholesale Sales, m/m     June     +1,9%     0,0%     +0.2%
12:30     U.S.     Initial Jobless Claims     неделя по 13 августа     395К     403К     408К
12:30     U.S.     CPI, m/m     July     -0,2%     +0,2%     +0.2%
14:00     U.S.     Leading Indicators     July     0,3%     0,2%     0.5%
14:00     U.S.     Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey     August     3,2     4,2     -30.7
14:00     U.S.     Existing Home Sales     July     4,84     4,92     4.67
14:00     U.S.     Existing Home Sales, m/m     July     +0.6%     +3,5%     -3.5%
14:30     Canada     Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report     0

The dollar gained the most in two weeks versus a basket of currencies as stocks plunged on concern the global economy is slowing and speculation European banks lack sufficient capital.
The Dollar Index climbed as much as 1%, the biggest intraday jump since Aug. 4, to 74.438. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index plunged 3.9%, and the MSCI World Index dropped 4%.
Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region shrank to minus 30.7, the lowest since March 2009.
The franc rallied after the Swiss National Bank refrained yesterday from pegging it to the euro to help curb its gains.
Finance Minister Eveline Widmer-Schlumpf said yesterday she’s “concerned” about the franc’s strength and that the government supports all SNB measures to weaken the currency. The central bank has said policy makers are assessing various options, including a temporary currency euro peg.
The pound ended a five-day rally against the dollar as a report showed U.K. retail sales rose less than economists forecast, spurring speculation that more policy makers may endorse further bond purchases to support the British economy.

European calendar for Friday starts at 0600GMT with German PPI data for July. UK data includes the Public Sector Finances for July at 0830GMT. US events start at 1230GMT, when New York Fed President William Dudley speaks on the regional and national economic outlook to the Meadowlands Chamber of Commerce in Lyndhurst, New Jersey. The main US data release for Friday is the BLS State Unemployment data, at 1400GMT. At 1745GMT, Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto is due to deliver a speech on the economic outlook and the financial services industry to the Community Bankers Association of Ohio in Columbus. US Commercial and Industrial Loans data is due at 2015GMT.

Majors close
Nikkei  -113.50  (-1.3%)  8,943.76        
Topix  -9.34  (-1.2%)  767.31        
DAX      -346.14  (-5.82%)   5,603    
CAC      -178.30  (-5.48%)   3,076        
FTSE-100  -239.37  (-4.49%)   5,092             
Dow      -419.63  (-3.68%)  10,990.58     
Nasdaq   -131.05  (-5.22%)   2,380         
S&P500  -53.24  (-4.46%)   1,140.65                
Oil  -0.77  (-0.93%)    $81.61         
10-Years  2.08%  -0.08   

Japanese stocks fell to the lowest in five months as the yen approached a post-World War II high, hurting prospects for exporters’ earnings, and after Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co. cut Japan’s economic forecast.
In Japan, exports fell more than expected in July amid the global slowdown and strengthening currency. Overseas sales decreased 3.3 percent in July from a year earlier, the Finance Ministry said today in Tokyo. The median estimate of 24 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 2.6 percent decline, after a 1.6 percent decrease in June.
Toyota Motor Corp. (7203), the world’s largest carmaker, declined to the lowest since January 2009.
Kyocera Corp. (6971), a maker of solar panels that gets 17 percent of its sales in the U.S., lost 2.3 percent.
Minebea Co., a ball-bearing maker, tumbled 5.7 percent after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cut its profit and share price estimates of Japanese electronic components makers.
TDK slumped 4.1 percent to 3,320 yen. Shinko Electric lost 3.5 percent to 526 yen, its lowest since December 2008.

European equities plummeted the most in more than two years as U.S. economic data missed forecasts, two Federal Reserve officials said the central bank shouldn’t act to protect stock investors and Swedish regulators warned that lenders are unprepared for a freeze in money markets.
Dexia SA (DEXB) and Societe Generale SA slid more than 12 percent as the Wall Street Journal also said that U.S. regulators are stepping up scrutiny of Europe’s largest lenders.
Societe Generale (GLE), France’s second-largest lender, dropped 12 percent to 21.60 euros, the lowest since March 2009.
HSBC Holdings Plc (HSBA), Europe’s biggest bank by market value, declined 6 percent to 509.6 pence.
Swedbank AB (SWEDA) retreated 9 percent to 83.55 kronor in Stockholm, the largest decline in two years.
Nordea Bank AB (NDA), Sweden’s biggest bank, fell 7.4 percent to 54.70 kronor.
Fiat SpA (F) lost 12 percent as a gauge of carmakers fell 7.4 percent.
Holcim Ltd. (HOLN) sank 8 percent as the world’s second-biggest cement maker reported profit that missed estimates.

Wall Street got socked on Thursday as renewed concerns about the U.S. and global economies sent major indexes plunging, pushed gold to a new high and bond yields to a record low.
Stocks were hit with bad news on multiple fronts. Morgan Stanley put out a dismal forecast for global economic growth. A key reading on U.S. housing came in worse than expected. And a report showed a significant slowdown in the domestic manufacturing sector.
Economy: The Labor Department reported that weekly jobless claims rose by a worse-than-expected 9,000 claims to 408,000 in the week ended Aug. 13.
The National Association of Realtors said existing home sales dropped by 3.5% in July, far worse than the 2% rise that the market was looking for.
The consumer price index, increased 0.5% in the month - led by a 4.7% jump in gas prices from month to month. Economists expected a 0.2% rise in July.
On Wednesday, U.S. stocks ended mixed as investors weighed the latest corporate results against global economic and debt concerns.
Companies: Shares of Dow component Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, Fortune 500) dropped 8% after the company cut its full-year outlook and said it was looking to spin off its PC business. The company also said it was in talks to possibly purchase British software company Autonomy.
The tech giant also reported its quarterly results, posting an adjusted profit of $1.10 a share versus the $1.09 that analysts had expected.
Shares of McGraw Hill (MHP, Fortune 500) dropped 6% after a New York Times report said the Justice Department was investigating rating agency Standard & Poor's, a subsidiary, for allegedly overrating mortgage-backed securities. The mortgage securities meltdown led to the 2008 financial crisis.
The stock price for Sears Holdings (SHLD, Fortune 500) fell more than 8% after the retailer reported a disappointing quarterly loss of $1.13 per share.

EUR/USD: $1.4200, $1.4275, $1.4315
USD/JPY: Y76.00, Y76.35, Y76.50
GBP/USD: $1.6170
USD/CHF Chf0.7850
EUR/AUD A$1.3600
USD/CAD C$0.9700
AUD/USD: $1.0300, $1.0500, $1.0545
AUD/JPY: Y79.85, Y79.75
AUD/CAD: C$1.0365

Resistance 3: Y78.20

Resistance 3:$1.6750
Resistance 2:$1.6600
Resistance 1: $1.6530
Current price: $1.6490
Support 1: $1.6460
Support 2: $1.6410
Support 3: $1.6350

Comments: cable set to correct it resent gains.  Support is around $1.6460 (trendline from August base), ahead of $1.6410 (38.2% Fibo of the resent rally) and $1.6350 (50%, August 17 base). Closest resistance eyed at $1.6530. Strong resistance remains at yesterday's highs on $1.6590/00. Further upside targets come at $1.6660 and $1.6740.

Resistance 3: $1.4520
Resistance 2: $1.4450         
Resistance 1: $1.4340
Current price: $1.4292
Support 1: $1.4270
Support 2: $1.4200
Support 3: $1.4100

Comments: Rate remains under the pressure. Resistance remains at $1.4330/40  (session high) ahead of $1.4450 (August 18 high). Support comes at recent lows on $1.4270. Below losses may widen to $1.4200.

The continued weakness in US index futures and lower Asian stocks are again seen weighing on European bourses from the getgo Friday. Spreadbetters Cantor Index are calling the FTSE down 41, the DAX down 32 and the CAC down 26.

The front-month WTI contract was last down $1.07 at $81.31, having touched a low at $80.66.

Nikkei  -113.50  (-1.3%)  8,943.76        
Topix  -9.34  (-1.2%)  767.31        
DAX      -346.14  (-5.82%)   5,603    
CAC      -178.30  (-5.48%)   3,076        
FTSE-100  -239.37  (-4.49%)   5,092             
Dow      -419.63  (-3.68%)  10,990.58     
Nasdaq   -131.05  (-5.22%)   2,380         
S&P500  -53.24  (-4.46%)   1,140.65                
Oil  -0.77  (-0.93%)    $81.61         
10-Years  2.08%  -0.08

06:00     Germany     PPI (July)         0.2%    0.1%
06:00     Germany     PPI (July) Y/Y         5.3%    5.6%
08:30     UK     PSNCR (July), bln         -    21.0
08:30     UK     PSNB (July), bln         0.5    14.0
11:00     Canada     CPI (July)         0.2%    -0.7%
11:00     Canada     CPI (July) Y/Y         2.8%    3.1%
11:00     Canada     CPI core (July)         0.1%    -0.6%
11:00     Canada     CPI core (July) Y/Y         1.6%    1.4%