CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 18-08-2011

EUR/USD seeing slight lift to $1.4335 area just as stocks pare losses rather quickly. Resistance around the $1.4360 area of the 100d ma. Rate currently holds at $1.4327.

EUR/JPY trades at Y109.38, resuming its decline. Cross holds a bit higher session low on Y109.27. Bids seen at Y109.20/10 with a break here to open Y108.60/50 (Y108.61 12 Aug low). Offers noted at Y109.90/00 and Y110.40/45.

The dollar gained the most in two weeks versus a basket of currencies as stocks plunged on concern the global economy is slowing and speculation European banks lack sufficient capital.
The Dollar Index climbed as much as 1%, the biggest intraday jump since Aug. 4, to 74.438. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index plunged 3.9%, and the MSCI World Index dropped 4%.

Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region shrank to minus 30.7, the lowest since March 2009.
The franc rallied after the Swiss National Bank refrained yesterday from pegging it to the euro to help curb its gains.
Finance Minister Eveline Widmer-Schlumpf said yesterday she’s “concerned” about the franc’s strength and that the government supports all SNB measures to weaken the currency. The central bank has said policy makers are assessing various options, including a temporary currency euro peg.
The pound ended a five-day rally against the dollar as a report showed U.K. retail sales rose less than economists forecast, spurring speculation that more policy makers may endorse further bond purchases to support the British economy.

EUR/JPY trades Y109.43 and continues to flirt near the session low Y109.27. Bids seen at Y109.20/10 with a break here to open Y108.60/50 (Y108.61 12 Aug low). Offers noted at Y109.90/00 and Y110.40/45.

EUR/USD: $1.4225, $1.4240, $1.4250, $1.4260, $1.4440, $1.4500
USD/JPY: Y76.50, Y76.65, Y77.00, Y77.40
GBP/USD: $1.6500
USD/CHF Chf0.7900
EUR/CHF Chf1.1400, Chf1.1475
NZD/USD $0.8300, $0.8440
AUD/USD:$1.0430, $1.0460, $1.0500, $1.0550, $1.0570/75
AUD/JPY: Y79.85, Y79.75
AUD/CAD: C$1.0365

Data: 

Extends losses in recent trade to a new session low Y110.02 just ahead of initial support seen at Y109.85/80 (17 Aug low), a break here to open a move towards Y109.20/10.

The S&P Sep contract was last down 24 points at 1165.8, having touched a low at 1162.6. Nasdaq futures were last down 50.00 points at 2125.25, just shy of the 2121.5 low.

EUR/USD
Offers: $1.4450/60, $1.4470/80
Bids: $1.4380/50

GBP/USD
Bids: $1.6590/00

USD/JPY
Offers: Y76.70/75, Y76.95/00, Y77.10
Bids: Y76.50/60, Y76.40/45, Y76.25, Y76.00

AUD/USD
Offers: $1.0500,  $1.0540/50, $1.0600/05

Data released:
08:30     United Kingdom     Retail Sales (MoM)     July     +0,8%     +0,3%     
08:30     United Kingdom     Retail Sales (YoY)     July     +0,4%     +0,1%

The dollar and yen gained against most major counterparts on speculation a report today will show U.S. inflation isn’t weak enough for the Federal Reserve to consider a third round of so-called quantitative easing.
The greenback rose against the Australian and New Zealand dollars as a slide in Asian stocks damped demand for higher- yielding assets. The Fed wrapped up its second round of bond buying, known as QE2, in June. The franc weakened against the euro and dollar on speculation the Swiss National Bank will expand efforts to curb the currency’s strength. The pound fell versus the dollar before spending data that may add to evidence the U.K. economy is losing momentum.


EUR/USD initially rose to $1.4450, but failed to hold above the figure and fell to a new session lows around $1.4375.
GBP/USD recovered from lows around $1.6480 back above $1.6500.
USD/JPY traded within Y76.50/70.

US data starts at 1230GMT with CPI and the weekly Jobless Claims. Initial jobless claims are expected to hover around 400,000 after falling to 395,000 in the previous week. Consumer prices are expected to increase by 0.4% in July after following the energy-related drop in June. AAA reported another drop in gasoline prices in the most recent month. Core prices are expected to increase by 0.2%. Shortly after, from 1235GMT, New York Fed President William Dudley is due to deliver a speech on the regional and national economic outlook in Newark.

Data released:
08:00     EU(17)     Current account (June) unadjusted, bln     -3.3    0.0    -18.7 (-18.3)
08:00     EU(17)     Current account (June) adjusted, bln     -7.4    -3.8    -5.6 (-5.2)
08:30     UK     Claimant count (July)    37100    18500    24500
08:30     UK     Claimant count rate (July)    4.9%    4.7%    4.7%
08:30     UK     Average earnings (3 months to June) Y/Y    2.6%    2.3%    2.3%
08:30     UK     Average earnings ex bonuses (3 months to June) Y/Y    2.2%    -    2.1%
08:30     UK     ILO Jobless rate (June)    7.9%    7.7%    7.7%
08:30     UK     BoE meeting minutes (03-04.08)              
09:00     EU(17)     Harmonized CPI (July) final    -0.6%    -0.6%    0.0%
09:00     EU(17)     Harmonized CPI (July) final Y/Y    2.5%    2.5%    2.7%
09:00     EU(17)     Harmonized CPI ex EFAT (July) Y/Y    1.2%    1.6%    1.6%
12:30     USA     PPI (July)    0.2%    0.0%    -0.4%
12:30     USA     PPI (July) Y/Y    7.2%    -    7.0%
12:30     USA     PPI excluding food and energy (July)    0.4%    0.2%    0.3%
12:30     USA     PPI excluding food and energy (July) Y/Y    2.5%    -    2.4%
23:50     Japan     Trade balance (July) unadjusted, trln    0.073    0.069    0.069 (0.070)

The dollar fell versus a basket of currencies of major U.S. trading partners as investors sought higher-yielding assets.
The franc briefly fell against the dollar and euro before a government briefing in Bern, then rallied as Finance Minister Eveline Widmer-Schlumpf said any decision on a target for the currency is up to the Swiss National Bank, not politicians. The franc surged earlier after the central bank refrained from pegging it to the euro or adopting a target.
Swiss Economy Minister Johann Schneider-Ammann said the government will use 2 billion francs ($2.5 billion) to boost the economy in the face of the currency’s strength. He and Widmer- Schlumpf spoke at the briefing in Bern.
The Swiss central bank said earlier it will raise banks’ sight deposits, cash available for immediate withdrawal, to 200 billion francs from 120 billion francs, continue to repurchase outstanding SNB bills and use foreign-exchange swap transactions, it said in an e-mailed statement from Zurich.  
The Thomson Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of raw materials climbed 1 percent. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose as much as 1.3 percent before erasing gains.
“The cautious action by the SNB compared to market expectations of bold intervention suggests wariness to another negative PR initiative that could be branded as an expensive failure,” said Lena Komileva, Group-of-10 strategy head at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. in London.
The dollar sell-off comes after foreign-exchange traders had reduced bets against the dollar in the week ended Aug. 9 by the most on record as global growth concerns sent demand for U.S. Treasuries soaring.
“The basic position was long risk-correlated currencies, short dollars, and that position was cut substantially -- and now they are tentatively getting bought back,” Citigroup’s Englander said.
Thursday US data starts at 1230GMT with CPI and the weekly Jobless Claims. Initial jobless claims are expected to hover around 400,000 after falling to 395,000 in the previous week. Consumer prices are expected to increase by 0.4% in July after following the energy-related drop in June. AAA reported another drop in gasoline prices in the most recent month. Core prices are expected to increase by 0.2%. Shortly after, from 1235GMT, New York Fed President William Dudley is due to deliver a speech on the regional and national economic outlook in Newark.

Majors close
Nikkei 225 -50.17 -0.55% 9,057.26
FTSE 100 -26.03 -0.49%     5,331.60
CAC 40 +23.44     +0.73%     3,254.34
DAX -45.96 -0.77% 5,948.94
Dow     +4.28     +0.04% 11,410.21
Nasdaq     -11.97     -0.47% 2,511.48     
S&P 500 +1.12     +0.09% 1,193.88
10 Year Yield     2.16%     -0.05
Oil     $87.49     -0.09     -0.10%
Gold     $1,794.70     +0.90     +0.05%

Japanese stocks fell for the first time in three days as European leaders said they won’t expand a fund to end the region’s debt crisis and U.S. housing starts dropped, reviving concern exporters’ earnings will be curbed.
Toyota Motor Corp. (7203), the world’s largest carmaker, lost 1.5 percent after French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel rejected a plan to expand the rescue fund at a meeting in Paris. Inpex Corp. (1605), Japan’s biggest energy exploration company, declined 3 percent as crude oil fell yesterday. Sumco Corp. (3436), a maker of silicon wafers, tumbled 5.1 percent after Dell Inc. (DELL) cut its revenue forecast following sluggish consumer demand.
Resource companies had the biggest drop among the 33 industry groups in the Topix as oil prices fell yesterday. Inpex lost 16,000 yen to 510,000 yen. Japan Petroleum Exploration Co. (1662), the second-biggest oil driller, slid 1.5 percent to 3,305 yen.
Crude oil for September delivery declined 1.4 percent to settle at $86.65 a barrel in New York yesterday. The London Metal Exchange Index of prices for six industrial metals including copper and aluminum dropped 0.5 percent.
Semiconductor-related stocks fell after Dell, the second- largest personal computer maker in the U.S., missed analysts’ sales estimates and cut its revenue forecast, hurt by sluggish spending on desktop computers and consumer technology.

European stocks climbed, with the benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index rising for a fourth day out of five, as some investors speculated that the 9.2 percent drop in equities this month makes their valuations attractive.
Vestas Wind Systems A/S posted the best performance in the Stoxx 600 after reporting second-quarter earnings that beat analysts’ estimates. Health-care companies rallied as Sanofi climbed 2.8 percent. Carlsberg A/S, the Nordic region’s largest brewer, plunged 17 percent after reducing its full-year outlook.
The Stoxx 600 has still declined 18 percent from this year’s high on Feb. 17, on concern that Europe will fail to contain its sovereign-debt crisis and that the economic recovery is faltering in the U.S. The retreat has left the European benchmark trading at 9.8 times the estimated earnings of its companies, near the lowest valuation since March 2009.
Bank of England policy makers Spencer Dale and Martin Weale ended their push for an increase in interest rates this month as the euro-area crisis and signs of a global economic cooling threatened to hurt growth in Britain. The nine-member Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously to hold the key rate at a record low 0.5 percent, according to the minutes of the Aug. 3-4 meeting published today in London.


U.S. stocks fell for a second day after Dell Inc. (DELL) forecast weaker sales growth, leading a slump in technology shares that helped reverse the market’s early gain.
Dell, the second-largest personal-computer maker, fell 10 percent as slower spending on PCs and consumer technology crimped its sales forecast. Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF), the teen- clothing retailer, slid 8.6 percent after company executives said expenses will continue to rise this year. Target Corp. (TGT) rose 2.1 percent as cost cuts helped boost profit. Eastman Kodak Co. (EK) surged 23 percent as analysts and investors told its patents may make it a takeover target.
The S&P 500 fell 13 percent from April 29 through yesterday on concern about Europe’s debt crisis and an economic slowdown. The index had rallied 7.5 percent over the three days before yesterday amid a decline in jobless claims, an increase in retail sales and better-than-estimated profits.
Per-share earnings increased 17 percent among the S&P 500 companies that have released quarterly results since July 11, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. About three-quarters of the companies have topped the average analyst profit forecast, the data show.
Stock-index futures maintained gains today after a report showed that wholesale costs in the U.S. rose more than forecast in July. The 0.2 percent advance in the producer prices index followed a 0.4 percent drop in June, Labor Department figures showed. Economists forecast a 0.1 increase, according to the median estimate. The so-called core measure, which excludes volatile food and energy, climbed 0.4 percent, the most since January.

Resistance 3: Y78.20

Resistance 3:$1.6740
Resistance 2:$1.6660/70
Resistance 1: $1.6590
Current price: $1.6512
Support 1: $1.6470
Support 2: $1.6410
Support 3: $1.6350

Comments: cable set to correct it resent gains.  Support is around $1.6470 (former resistance and August 8. 16 highs), ahead of $1.6410 (l38.2% Fibo of the resent rally) and $1.6250 (50%, August 17 base). Strong resistance remains at yesterday's highs on $1.6590. Further target comes at $1.6660 and $1.6740.

Resistance 3: $1.4650
Resistance 2: $1.4580         
Resistance 1: $1.4530
Current price: $1.4407
Support 1: $1.4350
Support 2: $1.4300
Support 3: $1.4260

Comments: Rate corrected a bit with no major changes in techs. Resistance remains at $1.4530/40  (Jul 27 high) ahead of $1.4580 (Jul 04 high). Support comes at recent lows on $1.4350. Below losses may widen to $1.4300 (50% of the rise from $1.4100).

EUR/USD: $1.4225, $1.4240, $1.4250, $1.4260, $1.4440, $1.4500
USD/JPY: Y76.50, Y76.65, Y77.00, Y77.40
GBP/USD: $1.6500
USD/CHF Chf0.7900
EUR/CHF Chf1.1400, Chf1.1475
NZD/USD $0.8300, $0.8440
AUD/USD:$1.0430, $1.0460, $1.0500, $1.0550, $1.0570/75
AUD/JPY: Y79.85, Y79.75
AUD/CAD: C$1.0365

Nikkei 225 -50.17 -0.55% 9,057.26
FTSE 100 -26.03 -0.49%     5,331.60
CAC 40 +23.44     +0.73%     3,254.34
DAX -45.96 -0.77% 5,948.94
Dow     +4.28     +0.04% 11,410.21
Nasdaq     -11.97     -0.47% 2,511.48     
S&P 500 +1.12     +0.09% 1,193.88
10 Year Yield     2.16%     -0.05
Oil     $87.49     -0.09     -0.10%
Gold     $1,794.70     +0.90     +0.05%

08:30     UK     Retail sales (July)         0.4%    0.7%
08:30     UK     Retail sales (July) Y/Y         0.3%    0.4%
12:30     USA     Jobless claims (week to 13.08)         400K    395K
12:30     USA     CPI (July)         0.2%    -0.2%
12:30     USA     CPI (July) Y/Y         -    3.6%
12:30     USA     CPI excluding food and energy (July)         0.2%    0.3%
12:30     USA     CPI excluding food and energy (July) Y/Y         -    1.6%
14:00     USA     Existing home sales (July), mln         4.80    4.77
14:00     USA     Philadelphia Fed index (August)         0.8    3.2
14:00     USA     Leading indicators (July)         0.2%    0.3%
20:30     USA     M2 money supply (08.08), bln         -    +159.3

08:30     UK     Retail sales (July)         0.4%    0.7%
08:30     UK     Retail sales (July) Y/Y         0.3%    0.4%
12:30     USA     Jobless claims (week to 13.08)         400K    395K
12:30     USA     CPI (July)         0.2%    -0.2%
12:30     USA     CPI (July) Y/Y         -    3.6%
12:30     USA     CPI excluding food and energy (July)         0.2%    0.3%
12:30     USA     CPI excluding food and energy (July) Y/Y         -    1.6%
14:00     USA     Existing home sales (July), mln         4.80    4.77
14:00     USA     Philadelphia Fed index (August)         0.8    3.2
14:00     USA     Leading indicators (July)         0.2%    0.3%
20:30     USA     M2 money supply (08.08), bln         -    +159.3