CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 16-03-2018

Manufacturing production increased 1.2 percent in February, its largest gain since October. Mining output jumped 4.3 percent, mostly reflecting strong gains in oil and gas extraction. The index for utilities fell 4.7 percent, as warmer-than-normal temperatures last month reduced the demand for heating. At 108.2 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production in February was 4.4 percent higher than it was a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector climbed 0.7 percentage point in February to 78.1 percent, its highest reading since January 2015 but still 1.7 percentage points below its long-run (1972-2017) average.

The number of job openings increased to 6.3 million on the last business day of January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and separations were little changed at 5.6 million and 5.4 million, respectively. Within separations, the quits rate and the layoffs and
discharges rate were little changed at 2.2 percent and 1.2 percent, respectively. This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the nonfarm sector by industry and by four geographic regions. The release also includes 2017 annual estimates for hires and
separations. The annual number of hires at 65.3 million and the annual number of quits at 38.2 million increased in 2017. The annual number of layoffs and discharges at 20.7 million edged up in 2017.

U.S. stock-index futures were flat on Friday, as turmoil in the Trump administration continued to weigh on the markets.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei 21,676.51 -127.44 -0.58%

Hang Seng 31,501.97 -39.13 -0.12%

Shanghai 3,270.39 -20.72 -0.63%

S&P/ASX 5,949.40 +28.60 +0.48%

FTSE 7,156.91 +17.15 +0.24%

CAC 5,272.45 +5.19 +0.10%

DAX 12,380.47 +34.91 +0.28%

Crude $61.33 (+0.23%)

Gold $1,319.10 (+0.10%)

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

Walt Disney (DIS) initiated with a Buy at Loop Capital; target $130

Declines in the motor vehicles, the aerospace product and parts, as well as the primary metal industries were responsible for the overall drop.

Overall, sales were down in 14 of 21 industries, representing 56% of the Canadian manufacturing sector. Sales of durable goods declined 3.5% to $28.2 billion, while sales of non-durable goods increased 1.7% to $26.8 billion.

In constant dollars, manufacturing sales in volume terms declined 1.1%.

Sales of motor vehicles fell 8.0% to $4.9 billion, following two consecutive monthly increases. The decrease reflected mostly lower production because of atypical assembly plant shutdowns. In constant dollar terms, sales in the motor vehicle industry declined 7.5% in January, indicating that the decline in current dollars is mainly due to a reduction in volumes produced.

Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,298,000. This is 5.7 percent below the revised January rate of 1,377,000, but is 6.5 percent above the February 2017 rate of 1,219,000. Single-family authorizations in February were at a rate of 872,000; this is 0.6 percent below the revised January figure of 877,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 385,000 in February.

Privately-owned housing starts in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,236,000. This is 7.0 percent below the revised January estimate of 1,329,000 and is 4.0 percent below the February 2017 rate of 1,288,000. Single-family housing starts in February were at a rate of 902,000; this is 2.9 percent above the revised January figure of 877,000. The February rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 317,000.

• May switch to neutral monetary policy by year-end

• Trade wars pose risks for economic growth and stability of global financial markets

• Annual inflation reached record low of 2.18 pct in feb

• UK banking system could continue to support the economy through disorderly brexit

• FPC still sees material risks from continuity of cross-border derivatives and insurance contracts after brexit

Euro area annual inflation rate was 1.1% in February 2018, down from 1.3% in January. In February 2017, the rate was 2.0%. European Union annual inflation was 1.3% in February 2018, down from 1.6% in January. A year earlier the rate was 2.0%. These figures come from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.

The lowest annual rates were registered in Cyprus (-0.4%), Greece (0.4%), Denmark and Italy (both 0.5%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Romania (3.8%), Estonia and Lithuania (both 3.2%). Compared with January, annual inflation fell in eighteen Member States, remained stable in two and rose in seven.

In February 2018, the highest contribution to the annual euro area inflation rate came from services (+0.57 percentage point), followed by food, alcohol & tobacco and energy (+0.21 pp each), and non-energy industrial goods (+0.14 pp).

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2475 (2800)

$1.2434 (2001)

$1.2396 (847)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2318

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2260 (4214)

$1.2223 (3681)

$1.2182 (3892)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date April, 6 is 97114 contracts (according to data from March, 15) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2600 (4699);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.4102 (2548)

$1.4058 (1720)

$1.4030 (308)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3952

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3890 (1298)

$1.3864 (973)

$1.3833 (3263)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date April, 6 is 30962 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,4300 (2787);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date April, 6 is 29644 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3800 (3565);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.96 versus 0.90 from the previous trading day according to data from March,15

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

As reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), the selling prices in wholesale trade increased by 1.2% in February 2018 from the corresponding month of the preceding year. In January 2018 and in December 2017 the annual rates of change were +2.0% and +1.8%, respectively. From January 2018 to February 2018 the index fell by 0.3%.

• "Minimal compensation" in asset prices for uncertainty about the rate outlook

• "Puzzling" that there is little compensation for duration in the rate structure

• Expects to see repricing of assets if rates continue to rise

• Says Russia wants to maintain dialogue with USA and will calibrate its response to new U.S. sanctions accordingly

• Does not rule out extra measures

• Moscow will respond to new U.S. sanctions by expanding its "black list" of americans

• Will use principle of parity in responding to U.S. sanctions