CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 14-02-2018

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14.02.2018
23:50
Japan: Core Machinery Orders, y/y, December -5% (forecast 2.2%)
23:50
Japan: Core Machinery Orders, December -11.9% (forecast -2.3%)
23:27
Currencies. Daily history for Feb 14’2018:

(raw materials / closing price /% change)

Oil 60.74 +2.62%

Gold 1,353.60 +1.74%

23:26
Currencies. Daily history for Feb 14’2018:

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

Nikkei -90.51 21154.17 -0.43%

TOPIX -14.06 1702.72 -0.82%

Hang Seng +676.07 30515.60 +2.27%

CSI 300 +31.33 3966.96 +0.80%

Euro Stoxx 50 +28.90 3369.83 +0.87%

FTSE 100 +45.96 7213.97 +0.64%

DAX +142.66 12339.16 +1.17%

CAC 40 +56.02 5165.26 +1.10%

DJIA +253.04 24893.49 +1.03%

S&P 500 +35.69 2698.63 +1.34%

NASDAQ +130.11 7143.62 +1.86%

S&P/TSX +111.80 15328.27 +0.73%

23:25
Currencies. Daily history for Feb 14’2018:

(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,2450 +0,79%

GBP/USD $1,3997 +0,76%

USD/CHF Chf0,92913 -0,63%

USD/JPY Y107,01 -0,75%

EUR/JPY Y133,22 +0,05%

GBP/JPY Y149,785 +0,02%

AUD/USD $0,7924 +0,84%

NZD/USD $0,7364 +1,22%

USD/CAD C$1,24903 -0,81%

22:57
Schedule for today, Thursday, Feb 15’2018 (GMT0)

00:00 Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation February 3.7%

00:00 China Bank holiday

00:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) January 6.7%

00:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) January 4.5%

00:30 Australia Unemployment rate January 5.5% 5.3%

00:30 Australia Changing the number of employed January 34.7 25.5

04:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Finally) December 0.5% 2.7%

04:30 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (Finally) December 3.6% 3.9%

10:00 Eurozone Trade balance unadjusted December 26.3 30.2

13:30 U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims February 1923 2006

13:30 U.S. NY Fed Empire State manufacturing index February 17.7 17.7

13:30 U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey February 22.2 22.0

13:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims February 221 237

13:30 U.S. PPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y January 2.3% 2.5%

13:30 U.S. PPI, y/y January 2.6% 2.2%

13:30 U.S. PPI, m/m January -0.1% 0.4%

13:30 U.S. PPI excluding food and energy, m/m January -0.1% 0.3%

14:15 U.S. Capacity Utilization January 77.9% 78%

14:15 U.S. Industrial Production YoY January 3.6%

14:15 U.S. Industrial Production (MoM) January 0.9% 0.4%

15:00 U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index February 72 73

18:30 Canada Gov Council Member Schembri Speaks

21:00 U.S. Total Net TIC Flows December 33.8

21:00 U.S. Net Long-term TIC Flows December 57.5 50.3

21:30 New Zealand Business NZ PMI January 51.2

22:30 Australia RBA's Governor Philip Lowe Speaks

21:11
The main US stock indexes completed the session in a positive territory

Major US stock indices rose significantly on Wednesday, as investors digested stronger than expected inflation data and unexpected drop in retail sales in January, which shifted focus from inflation to stagflation.

So, in January, retail sales in the US unexpectedly fell, fixing their biggest recession in almost a year, as households reduced purchases of cars and building materials. The Commerce Department reported on Wednesday that retail sales decreased 0.3% last month, which is the biggest decline since February 2017. Data for December were revised, and showed that sales remained unchanged, but not increased by 0.4%, as previously reported. Economists had forecasted a 0.2% increase in retail sales. Retail sales in January rose by 3.6% compared to last year.

However, the Ministry of Labor said that the consumer price index increased by 0.5% last month, as households paid more for gasoline, housing and health care. The consumer price index in December rose by 0.2%. The consumer price index remained unchanged at 2.1% year on year, as the largest increase in prices over the past year fell from the calculation.

Oil futures rose by about 2.5%, helped by data from the US Energy Ministry and the weakening of the dollar. The US Energy Ministry reported that oil reserves increased by 1.841 million barrels to 422.095 million barrels. However, growth was less than analyst consensus estimates at +2.825 million barrels.

Most components of the DOW index finished trading in positive territory (25 out of 30). Leader of the growth were shares of NIKE, Inc. (NKE, + 3.26%). Outsider were shares of McDonald's Corporation (MCD, -1.23%).

Almost all sectors of the S & P index recorded an increase. The base materials sector grew most (+ 2.0%). The decrease was shown only by the utilities sector (-0.6%).

At closing:

Dow + 1.03% 24,893.49 +253.04

Nasdaq + 1.86% 7.143.62 +130.10

S & P + 1.34% 2,698.63 +35.69

20:00
DJIA +0.87% 24,854.17 +213.72 Nasdaq +1.65% 7,129.51 +116.00 S&P +1.19% 2,694.65 +31.71
17:00
European stocks closed: FTSE 100 +45.96 7213.97 +0.64% DAX +142.66 12339.16 +1.17% CAC 40 +56.02 5165.26 +1.10%
15:44
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 1.8 million barrels from the previous week

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 1.8 million barrels from the previous week. At 422.1 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the lower half of the average range for this time of year.

Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 3.6 million barrels last week, and are in the upper half of the average range. Finished gasoline inventories decreased while blending components inventories increased last week.

Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 0.5 million barrels last week and are in the middle of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 3.3 million barrels last week, and are in the middle of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 2.7 million barrels last week.

15:30
U.S.: Crude Oil Inventories, February 1.841 (forecast 2.825)
15:15
U.S business inventories up 0.4% m/m

Manufacturers' and trade inventories, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $1,902.2 billion, up 0.4 percent (±0.1 percent) from November 2017 and were up 3.2 percent (±0.3 percent) from December 2016.

The total business inventories/sales ratio based on seasonally adjusted data at the end of December was 1.33. The December 2016 ratio was 1.37.

15:14
Fed funds futures imply traders see 23 pct chance Fed raising rates 4 times in 2018, up from 17 pct late tuesday - CME fedwatch
15:00
U.S.: Business inventories , December 0.4% (forecast 0.3%)
14:40
BTC/USD Analysis

On daily time frame chart, we can see that the price is slowing down its last bearish movements.

If we look at Fibonacci levels we can see that the price has rejected the 78.2% fibs levels which can be an opportunity to Long entries in this crypto.

Therefore, we can expect a further appreciation by Bitcoin soon if the price remains above the 78.2% fibs levels.

14:32
U.S. Stocks open: Dow -0.53% Nasdaq -0.50%, S&P -0.50%
14:24
Before the bell: S&P futures -1.04%, NASDAQ futures -1.07%

U.S. stock-index futures fell on Wednesday after the CPI data revealed that consumer prices rose at a faster rate in January than expected, fueling the speculations the Federal Reserve will quicken its pace of monetary tightening.


Global Stocks:

Nikkei 21,154.17 -90.51 -0.43%

Hang Seng 30,515.60 +676.07 +2.27%

Shanghai 3,199.48 +14.52 +0.46%

S&P/ASX 5,841.20 -14.70 -0.25%

FTSE 7,154.28 -13.73 -0.19%

CAC 5,093.05 -16.19 -0.32%

DAX 12,097.36 -99.14 -0.81%

Crude $58.47 (-1.22%)

Gold $1,326.40 (-0.30%)

13:48
Wall Street. Stocks before the bell

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)


3M Co

MMM

229

-2.36(-1.02%)

4002

ALTRIA GROUP INC.

MO

65.75

0.11(0.17%)

2592

Amazon.com Inc., NASDAQ

AMZN

1,407.50

-7.01(-0.50%)

125352

American Express Co

AXP

94.21

-0.35(-0.37%)

1126

AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP

AIG

58.9

-0.53(-0.89%)

1480

Apple Inc.

AAPL

162.55

-1.79(-1.09%)

451429

AT&T Inc

T

36.5

-0.10(-0.27%)

18033

Barrick Gold Corporation, NYSE

ABX

13.15

-0.07(-0.53%)

15150

Boeing Co

BA

341

-2.16(-0.63%)

43058

Caterpillar Inc

CAT

152.29

-1.68(-1.09%)

11545

Cisco Systems Inc

CSCO

41.09

-0.14(-0.34%)

105489

Citigroup Inc., NYSE

C

74.8

-0.38(-0.51%)

36888

Deere & Company, NYSE

DE

162

0.70(0.43%)

1258

Exxon Mobil Corp

XOM

75.72

-0.58(-0.76%)

18901

Facebook, Inc.

FB

172.75

-0.40(-0.23%)

331745

Ford Motor Co.

F

10.53

-0.06(-0.57%)

46762

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., NYSE

FCX

17.75

-0.05(-0.28%)

12450

General Electric Co

GE

14.76

0.09(0.61%)

338930

General Motors Company, NYSE

GM

41.22

-0.18(-0.43%)

10996

Goldman Sachs

GS

254.5

-1.03(-0.40%)

10780

Google Inc.

GOOG

1,045.00

-7.10(-0.67%)

6079

Hewlett-Packard Co.

HPQ

20.32

-0.26(-1.26%)

12030

Home Depot Inc

HD

182

-1.72(-0.94%)

10303

HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL INC.

HON

148

-0.50(-0.34%)

1517

Intel Corp

INTC

43.91

-0.55(-1.24%)

53515

International Business Machines Co...

IBM

150

-0.75(-0.50%)

7307

International Paper Company

IP

57.95

-0.08(-0.14%)

240

Johnson & Johnson

JNJ

129

-0.96(-0.74%)

3865

JPMorgan Chase and Co

JPM

111.84

-0.59(-0.52%)

12347

McDonald's Corp

MCD

161.01

-1.39(-0.86%)

6679

Merck & Co Inc

MRK

54.6

-0.30(-0.55%)

2250

Microsoft Corp

MSFT

88.54

-0.87(-0.97%)

115780

Nike

NKE

65.09

-0.78(-1.18%)

1882

Pfizer Inc

PFE

34.75

-0.19(-0.54%)

4264

Procter & Gamble Co

PG

81.1

-0.40(-0.49%)

3558

Starbucks Corporation, NASDAQ

SBUX

54.99

-0.68(-1.22%)

6940

Tesla Motors, Inc., NASDAQ

TSLA

321.33

-2.33(-0.72%)

38478

The Coca-Cola Co

KO

44.01

-0.18(-0.41%)

14448

Travelers Companies Inc

TRV

137.51

-1.07(-0.77%)

454

Twitter, Inc., NYSE

TWTR

32.84

-0.60(-1.79%)

423063

United Technologies Corp

UTX

124.01

-1.76(-1.40%)

3218

UnitedHealth Group Inc

UNH

223

-3.64(-1.61%)

1631

Verizon Communications Inc

VZ

49.76

-0.32(-0.64%)

6760

Visa

V

117

-1.35(-1.14%)

19609

Wal-Mart Stores Inc

WMT

100.3

-0.68(-0.67%)

10745

Walt Disney Co

DIS

102.67

-1.45(-1.39%)

3087

Yandex N.V., NASDAQ

YNDX

37.53

0.11(0.29%)

12993

13:46
U.S retail sales down 0.3% in January

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for January 2018, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $492.0 billion, a decrease of 0.3 percent from the previous month, but 3.6 percent above January 2017.

Total sales for the November 2017 through January 2018 period were up 4.9 percent from the same period a year ago. The November 2017 to December 2017 percent change was revised from up 0.4 percent to virtually unchanged. Retail trade sales were down 0.3 percent from December 2017, but 3.9 percent above last year. Nonstore Retailers were up 10.2 percent (±1.4 percent) from January 2017, while Gasoline Stations were up 9.0 percent (±1.6 percent) from last year.

13:43
U.S CPI inflation rose more than expected in January

The Consumer Price Index for increased 0.5 percent in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.1 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The seasonally adjusted increase in the all items index was broad-based, with increases in the indexes for gasoline, shelter, apparel, medical care, and food all contributing. The energy index rose 3.0 percent in January, with the increase in the gasoline index more than offsetting declines in other energy
component indexes. The food index rose 0.2 percent with the indexes for food at home and food away from home both rising.
The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.3 percent in January. Along with shelter, apparel, and medical care, the indexes for motor vehicle
insurance, personal care, and used cars and trucks also rose in January. The indexes for airline fares and new vehicles were among those that declined over the month.

13:30
U.S.: Retail Sales YoY, January 3.6%
13:30
U.S.: Retail sales, January -0.3% (forecast 0.2%)
13:30
U.S.: CPI, Y/Y, January 2.1% (forecast 1.9%)
13:30
U.S.: CPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y, January 1.8% (forecast 1.7%)
13:30
U.S.: CPI, m/m , January 0.5% (forecast 0.3%)
13:30
U.S.: CPI excluding food and energy, m/m, January 0.3% (forecast 0.2%)
13:30
U.S.: Retail sales excluding auto, January 0% (forecast 0.4%)
10:16
Bank of England regional agents' report says investment intentions had remained positive, but mainly reflected investment to maintain business activity

  • Growth in activity had held steady at a modest pace

  • Strong growth in inbound tourist spending, though there were some signs of a softening in discretionary spend by domestic

  • Banks' risk appetite towards construction and retail had fallen slightly

  • Fall in sterling has led to some, albeit still limited, switching from overseas to cheaper domestically produced goods

10:13
Industrial production rose by 0.4% m/m in the euro area, more than expected

In December 2017 compared with November 2017, seasonally adjusted industrial production rose by 0.4% in the euro area (EA19) and by 0.3% in the EU28, according to estimates from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In November 2017, industrial production rose by 1.3% in the euro area and by 1.2% in the EU28. In December 2017 compared with December 2016, industrial production increased by 5.2% in the euro area and by 4.8% in the EU28. The average industrial production for the year 2017, compared with 2016, rose by 3.0% in the euro area and by 3.3% in the EU28.

10:11
GDP rose by 0.6% in both the euro area (EA19) and the EU28 in Q4

Seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 0.6% in both the euro area (EA19) and the EU28 during the fourth quarter of 2017, compared with the previous quarter, according to a flash estimate published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In the third quarter of 2017, GDP grew by 0.7% in both zones. Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 2.7% in the euro area and by 2.6% in the EU28 in the fourth quarter of 2017, after +2.8% in both zones in the previous quarter.

During the fourth quarter of 2017, GDP in the United States increased by 0.6% compared with the previous quarter (after +0.8% in the third quarter of 2017). Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, GDP grew by 2.5% (after +2.3% in the previous quarter). Over the whole year 2017, GDP grew by 2.5% in both zones.

10:00
Eurozone: GDP (YoY), Quarter IV 2.7% (forecast 2.7%)
10:00
Eurozone: GDP (QoQ), Quarter IV 0.6% (forecast 0.6%)
10:00
Eurozone: Industrial production, (MoM), December 0.4% (forecast 0.2%)
10:00
Eurozone: Industrial Production (YoY), December 5.2% (forecast 4.2%)
08:56
Major European stock exchanges started trading in the green zone: FTSE 7208.40 +40.39 + 0.56%, DAX 12290.33 +93.83 + 0.77%, CAC 5136.52 +27.28 + 0.53%
07:48
Options levels on wednesday, February 14, 2017

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2461 (4471)

$1.2444 (2578)

$1.2410 (913)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2372

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2319 (973)

$1.2300 (2429)

$1.2277 (5247)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date March, 9 is 126388 contracts (according to data from February, 13) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2400 (5247);


GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.4028 (3319)

$1.4005 (1749)

$1.3968 (1164)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3895

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3840 (1537)

$1.3809 (1778)

$1.3765 (2032)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date March, 9 is 43742 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3900 (3319);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date March, 9 is 43109 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3850 (2206);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.99 versus 0.99 from the previous trading day according to data from February, 13

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

07:14
Eurostoxx 50 futures up 0.4 pct, DAX futures up 0.5 pct, CAC 40 futures up 0.5 pct, FTSE futures up 0.5 pct, IBEX futures up 0.4 pct
07:13
10-year U.S. treasury yield at 2.811 percent vs U.S. close of 2.840 percent on tuesday
07:08
Japan's GDP rose less than expected in Q4

Japan's gross domestic product added a seasonally adjusted 0.1 percent on quarter in the fourth quarter of 2017, the Cabinet Office said in Wednesday's preliminary reading, cited by rttnews.

That was shy of expectations for a gain of 0.2 percent and down from 0.6 percent in the third quarter.

On an annualized basis, GDP gained 0.4 percent - again missing expectations for 1.0 percent and down from the downwardly revised 2.2 percent increase in the three months prior (originally 2.5 percent).

Nominal GDP was flat on quarter, missing forecasts for a gain of 0.4 percent and down from 0.6 percent in the third quarter.

07:05
The economic situation in Germany in 2017 was characterised by steady and strong growth - Destatis

The German economy continued to grow at the end of 2017. In the fourth quarter of 2017, the gross domestic product (GDP) rose 0.6% on the previous quarter after adjustment for price, seasonal and calendar variations. The economic situation in Germany in 2017 thus was characterised by steady and strong growth (+0.9% in the first quarter, +0.6% in the second quarter and +0.7% in the third quarter). The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that this results in a 2.2% increase (calendar-adjusted: +2.5%) for the whole year of 2017. The provisional annual GDP result released in January has been confirmed.

07:03
Consumer prices in Germany rose by 1.6% in January, as expected

Consumer prices in Germany rose by 1.6% in January 2018 compared with January 2017. The inflation rate - measured by the consumer price index - thus decreased slightly at the beginning of the year (December 2017: +1.7%, November 2017: +1.8%). Compared with December 2017, the consumer price index fell by 0.7% in January 2018, which was largely due to seasonal influences. The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) thus confirms its provisional overall results of 30 January 2018.

Energy prices, which in January 2018 were by 0.9% higher than a year earlier, had a downward effect on the overall inflation rate. Also, the increase in energy prices slowed again (December 2017: +1.3%; November 2017: +3.7%). From January 2017 to January 2018, prices rose especially for heating oil (+5.5%). Price increases were also recorded for electricity (+1.6) and charges for central and district heating (+1.5%). In contrast, the prices of gas (-1.3%) and motor fuels (-0.5%) were down on the same month a year earlier. Excluding energy prices, the inflation rate would have been slightly higher (+1.7%) in January 2018.

07:01
Germany: GDP (YoY), Quarter IV 2.3% (forecast 3%)
07:01
Germany: CPI, m/m, January -0.7% (forecast -0.7%)
07:00
Germany: GDP (QoQ), Quarter IV 0.6% (forecast 0.8%)
07:00
Germany: CPI, y/y , January 1.6% (forecast 1.6%)
06:42
Global Stocks

European stocks fell Tuesday, as advances for mining and travel shares weren't enough to guide the market to a second consecutive win. The Stoxx Europe 600 index SXXP, -0.63% declined by 0.6% to end at 370.58, with the utility and telecom groups losing the most. But the basic materials and consumer-services sectors pushed higher. On Monday, the benchmark climbed 1.2%, the first win in three sessions.

U.S. stocks on Tuesday finished in the green, marking a third consecutive gain for equity gauges, ahead of a key inflation reading, even as shades of last week's brutal selling lingered.

Asia-Pacific equity markets broke away from their recent lockstep trading, as the global stock rout over the past two weeks abated and local factors took center stage.

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