CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 12-09-2018

Major US stock indexes finished the session without a single dynamic: Nasdaq declined, weighed down by the fall of Apple and other companies, while the growth of energy companies and news about further trade negotiations in the US supported the S & P 500 and Dow Industrials.

A certain influence on the course of trading also provided data on the United States. As it became known, in August, producer prices in the US declined for the first time in monthly terms in almost a year and a half. The producer price index, the measure of prices that enterprises receive for their goods and services, declined by a seasonally adjusted 0.1% in August compared to the previous month, the Labor Ministry said on Wednesday. This is the first monthly decline since February 2017, when prices also fell by 0.1%. With the exclusion of often volatile categories of food and energy, prices also fell in August, falling by 0.1%.

Oil futures have appreciably risen in price on Wednesday, thus oil of mark Brent for a short while has overcome a mark $ 80 for barrel. Support for prices was provided by data from the US Energy Ministry, as well as the impending US sanctions against Iran, which added to concerns about global oil supplies.

Most DOW components recorded a rise (18 out of 30). The leader of growth was shares Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc. (WBA, + 2.41%). Outsider were shares of 3M Company (MMM, -2.42%).

Most sectors of S & P completed the auction in positive territory. The conglomerate sector grew most (+ 1.2%). The largest decrease was shown in the financial sector (-0.4%).

At closing:

Dow 25.998.92 +27.86 +0.11%

S & P 500 2,888.92 +1.03 +0.04%

Nasdaq 100 7,954.23 -18.24 -0.23%

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 5.3 million barrels from the previous week. At 396.2 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 3% below the five year average for this time of year.

Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 1.3 million barrels last week and are about 8% above the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories increased while blending components inventories decreased last week.

Distillate fuel inventories increased by 6.2 million barrels last week and are about 3% below the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 1.2 million barrels last week and are about 11% below the five year average for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased last week by 10.1 million barrels last week.

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U.S. stock-index futures fell slightly on Wednesday, weighed down by lingering worries over an escalation in trade dispute between U.S. and China.

Global Stocks:

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

Alcoa (AA) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at B. Riley FBR; target raised to $50 from $48

Chevron (V) upgraded to Buy from Hold at HSBC Securities

Canadian industries operated at 85.5% of their production capacity in the second quarter, up from 83.7% in the first quarter. This follows a slight decrease in capacity utilization in the first quarter of 2018 from the fourth quarter of 2017.

The increase in the second quarter of 2018 was led by the mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction sector and, to a lesser extent, the manufacturing sector.

The capacity utilization rate of the oil and gas extraction subsector increased for a fifth consecutive quarter, rising from 82.7% in the first quarter to 87.1% in the second quarter. The rate has risen 7.6 percentage points since the first quarter of 2017, due to lower oil transportation capacity combined with higher oil prices in the second quarter, resulting in increased production.

The Producer Price Index for final demand declined 0.1 percent in August, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices were unchanged in July and increased 0.3 percent in June. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index rose 2.8 percent for the 12 months ended in August.
In August, the decline in the final demand index can be attributed to a 0.1-percent decrease in prices for final demand services. The index for final demand goods was unchanged.
The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services edged up 0.1 percent in August after advancing 0.3 percent in both July and June. For the 12 months ended in August, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 2.9 percent.

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• Says Crude Production Rose by 278,000 B/D in August

The unemployment rate decreased compared to both the previous quarter and the previous year, as well as the rate of inactivity. In the monthly data for July 2018, compared to the previous month, the decrease in the unemployment rate was associated with the increase in the inactivity rate.

In the yearly comparison, for the fifth consecutive quarter, the decrease in the number of unemployed continued, albeit with less intensity, (-34 thousand in one year, -1.2%). It only concerned the South, affected both genders and individuals up to 49 years of age. The strong downward trend of inactive people aged 15-64 (- 394 thousand, -2.9%) was instead widespread by gender, territory and age group.

In July 2018 compared with June 2018, seasonally adjusted industrial production fell by 0.8% in the euro area (EA19) and by 0.7% in the EU28, according to estimates from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In June 2018, industrial production fell by 0.8% in the euro area and by 0.5% in the EU28. In July 2018 compared with July 2017, industrial production decreased by 0.1% in the euro area and increased by 0.8% in the EU28.

The decrease of 0.8% in industrial production in the euro area in July 2018, compared with June 2018, is due to production of durable consumer goods falling by 1.9%, non-durable consumer goods by 1.3% and intermediate goods by 0.8%, while production of capital goods rose by 0.8% and energy by 0.7%.

In July 2018 the seasonally adjusted industrial production index decreased by 1.8% compared with the previous month. The percentage change of the average of the last three months with respect to the previous three months was -0.2.

The calendar adjusted industrial production index decreased by 1.3% compared with July 2017 (calendar working days being 22 versus 21 days in July 2017); in the period January-July 2018 the percentage change was +2.0 compared with the same period of 2017.

The unadjusted industrial production index increased by 1.8% compared with July 2017.

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The dollar declines slightly on Wednesday, as Canada said it was ready to make a concession to resolve the negotiations for the the North American Free Trade Agreement, although concern about the tension in trade between the US and China dragged on.

China asked the World Trade Organization on Tuesday to grant permission to impose sanctions against the United States in response to Washington's non-compliance with the ruling in the dispute over American dumping duties.

The dollar index. DXY, which measures the dollar against six major counterparts, fell 0.1% to 95.133 in early trading.

The dollar declined, especially sharply against the Canadian currency, after two Canadian sources familiar with the strategy of talks said that Canada is ready to offer the United States limited access to the Canadian dairy market as a concession.

The protected dairy industry in Canada is a stumbling block in the NAFTA negotiations between the two countries. Canadian Foreign Minister Cristia Freeland returned to Washington on Tuesday for talks aimed at saving NAFTA.

However, concern about the trade dispute between China and the United States - the world's largest economies - has kept many investors from taking risks.

This is the weakest sentiment read since November last year. While the Index is still in positive territory, it is now only just above the 100 level. The detail suggests that confidence has been affected by increases in mortgage interest rates; political instability and household budget pressures. We expect there has been a partial offset from the strong growth figures which were announced during the survey period last week. It is also encouraging that respondents have boosted their confidence in the labour market with a significant improvement coming in the mining states.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1730 (890)

$1.1703 (640)

$1.1688 (448)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1587

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1542 (5278)

$1.1507 (2914)

$1.1469 (3487)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date October, 15 is 88112 contracts (according to data from September, 11) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1600 (5278);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3161 (1748)

$1.3127 (716)

$1.3102 (658)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3003

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2954 (572)

$1.2901 (1429)

$1.2869 (1566)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date October, 15 is 25700 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3200 (2749);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date October, 15 is 27635 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2800 (2441);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.08 versus 1.08 from the previous trading day according to data from September, 11.

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.