CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 11-12-2018

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11.12.2018
23:50
Japan: Core Machinery Orders, y/y, October 4.5% (forecast 5.9%)
23:50
Japan: Core Machinery Orders, October 7.6% (forecast 10.5%)
23:30
Schedule for today, Wednesday, December 12, 2018
Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
04:30 Japan Tertiary Industry Index October -1.1% 0.9%
10:00 Eurozone Industrial Production (YoY) October 0.9% 0.7%
10:00 Eurozone Industrial production, (MoM) October -0.3% 0.2%
13:30 Canada Capacity Utilization Rate Quarter III 85.5% 85.7%
13:30 U.S. CPI, m/m November 0.3% 0%
13:30 U.S. CPI excluding food and energy, m/m November 0.2% 0.2%
13:30 U.S. CPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y November 2.1% 2.2%
13:30 U.S. CPI, Y/Y November 2.5% 2.2%
15:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories December -7.323 -2.94
19:00 U.S. Federal budget November -100 -188
21:45 New Zealand Food Prices Index, y/y November 0.6%  
21:32
Major US stock indexes finished trading without a single dynamics

Major US stock indexes ended the session in different directions, as the fall in industrial goods sector quotes offset the growth of technology stocks against the background of signs of progress between China and the United States in resolving the trade dispute.

The US and China began another round of trade negotiations with a telephone conversation between US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, the White House Trade Representative for Laytheiser and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He. This showed that the dialogue between the two countries on trade issues continues, despite a diplomatic dispute over the arrest of the Chief Financial Officer of Huawei.

Oil prices rose moderately, helped by rising global stocks and disruptions in production in Libya. In Libya, the National Oil Company (NOC) announced a force majeure on Monday for export from the El Sharara oil field, the largest in the country, which was seized last weekend by a group of militants. NOC said that the shutdown would result in a loss of production of 315,000 barrels per day and an additional loss of 73,000 barrels per day at the El Feel field.

Most of the components of DOW recorded a decline (16 of 30). The Travelers Companies, Inc. shares turned out to be an outsider. (TRV, -1.65%). The growth leader was NIKE, Inc. (NKE, + 1.46%).

Most sectors of the S & P finished trading in the red. The industrial goods sector fell the most (-0.7%). The growth leader was the technology sector (+ 0.4%).

At the time of closing:

Dow 24,370.24 -53.02 -0.22%

S & P 500 2,636.78 -0.94  -0.04%

Nasdaq 100 7,031.83 +11.31  + 0.16%

20:50
Schedule for tomorrow, Wednesday, December 12, 2018
Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
04:30 Japan Tertiary Industry Index October -1.1% 0.9%
10:00 Eurozone Industrial Production (YoY) October 0.9% 0.7%
10:00 Eurozone Industrial production, (MoM) October -0.3% 0.2%
13:30 Canada Capacity Utilization Rate Quarter III 85.5% 85.7%
13:30 U.S. CPI, m/m November 0.3% 0%
13:30 U.S. CPI excluding food and energy, m/m November 0.2% 0.2%
13:30 U.S. CPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y November 2.1% 2.2%
13:30 U.S. CPI, Y/Y November 2.5% 2.2%
15:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories December -7.323 -2.94
19:00 U.S. Federal budget November -100 -188
21:45 New Zealand Food Prices Index, y/y November 0.6%  
20:00
DJIA +0.11% 24,450.00 +26.74 Nasdaq +0.36% 7,045.88 +25.35 S&P +0.25% 2,644.26 +6.54
17:01
European stocks closed: FTSE 100 +85.40 6806.94 +1.27% DAX +158.44 10780.51 +1.49% CAC 40 +63.82 4806.20 +1.35%
14:52
President Trump on Tuesday suggested the U.S. military would construct a wall at the U.S. border with Mexico if Democrats refused to agree to provide funding for one - DJ

  • "The Democrats...for strictly political reasons and because they have been pulled so far left, do NOT want Border Security," he said. "They want Open Borders for anyone to come in."

14:34
U.S. Stocks open: Dow +1.37%, Nasdaq +1.27%, S&P +1.19%
14:25
Before the bell: S&P futures +1.20%, NASDAQ futures +1.52%

U.S. stock-index futures surged on Tuesday, amid signs of possible progress on US-China trade deal.

Global Stocks:

Index/commodity

Last

Today's Change, points

Today's Change, %

Nikkei

21,148.02

-71.48

-0.34%

Hang Seng

25,771.67

+19.29

+0.07%

Shanghai

2,594.09

+9.51

+0.37%

S&P/ASX

5,575.90

+23.40

+0.42%

FTSE

6,849.26

+127.72

+1.90%

CAC

4,845.17

+102.79

+2.17%

DAX

10,850.43

+228.36

+2.15%

Crude

$52.03


+2.02%

Gold

$1,252.40


+0.24%

13:49
Wall Street. Stocks before the bell

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)


3M Co

MMM

200.75

2.43(1.23%)

1432

ALCOA INC.

AA

28.96

0.64(2.26%)

2236

ALTRIA GROUP INC.

MO

53.58

0.22(0.41%)

13158

Amazon.com Inc., NASDAQ

AMZN

1,679.00

37.97(2.31%)

106634

American Express Co

AXP

107.63

1.84(1.74%)

1786

Apple Inc.

AAPL

171.75

2.15(1.27%)

414828

AT&T Inc

T

30.25

0.34(1.14%)

243892

Barrick Gold Corporation, NYSE

ABX

14.08

0.24(1.73%)

128414

Boeing Co

BA

334.84

8.49(2.60%)

40547

Caterpillar Inc

CAT

127

3.61(2.93%)

27563

Chevron Corp

CVX

116.37

1.43(1.24%)

9680

Cisco Systems Inc

CSCO

47.72

0.86(1.84%)

37914

Citigroup Inc., NYSE

C

58.15

1.08(1.89%)

31562

Deere & Company, NYSE

DE

149.99

2.96(2.01%)

9726

Exxon Mobil Corp

XOM

77.4

0.86(1.12%)

4918

Facebook, Inc.

FB

143.95

2.10(1.48%)

197575

FedEx Corporation, NYSE

FDX

195

2.07(1.07%)

3058

Ford Motor Co.

F

8.75

0.23(2.70%)

318312

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., NYSE

FCX

11

0.31(2.90%)

44172

General Electric Co

GE

7.02

0.09(1.30%)

493413

General Motors Company, NYSE

GM

35.5

1.08(3.14%)

36318

Goldman Sachs

GS

181.8

2.97(1.66%)

10650

Google Inc.

GOOG

1,058.00

18.45(1.77%)

8286

Hewlett-Packard Co.

HPQ

23.27

0.34(1.48%)

6399

Home Depot Inc

HD

173.27

1.58(0.92%)

2290

Intel Corp

INTC

47.8

0.59(1.25%)

66949

International Business Machines Co...

IBM

122.19

1.06(0.88%)

3439

Johnson & Johnson

JNJ

146.25

0.99(0.68%)

102331

JPMorgan Chase and Co

JPM

103.14

1.78(1.76%)

32098

McDonald's Corp

MCD

185.5

0.85(0.46%)

1212

Merck & Co Inc

MRK

78

0.58(0.75%)

2656

Microsoft Corp

MSFT

109.58

1.99(1.85%)

141371

Nike

NKE

73.34

0.83(1.14%)

4984

Pfizer Inc

PFE

44.08

-0.32(-0.72%)

19480

Procter & Gamble Co

PG

93.19

0.16(0.17%)

1601

Starbucks Corporation, NASDAQ

SBUX

66.37

0.88(1.34%)

11421

Tesla Motors, Inc., NASDAQ

TSLA

372.5

7.35(2.01%)

126454

The Coca-Cola Co

KO

49.28

0.04(0.08%)

4320

Travelers Companies Inc

TRV

123.57

0.57(0.46%)

1951

Twitter, Inc., NYSE

TWTR

34.2

0.77(2.30%)

70459

United Technologies Corp

UTX

120.57

1.16(0.97%)

505

UnitedHealth Group Inc

UNH

269.99

3.46(1.30%)

2758

Verizon Communications Inc

VZ

58.17

-0.10(-0.17%)

19225

Visa

V

140.28

2.40(1.74%)

11899

Wal-Mart Stores Inc

WMT

94.43

0.49(0.52%)

2914

Walt Disney Co

DIS

112.53

0.67(0.60%)

4686

Yandex N.V., NASDAQ

YNDX

28.36

0.45(1.61%)

46983

13:46
Rating reiterations before the market open

Apple (AAPL) reiterated at Strong Buy at Tigress

13:45
Downgrades before the market open

Pfizer (PFE) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan

Travelers (TRV) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts

13:44
Upgrades before the market open

AT&T (T) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup

13:36
U.S producer price index rose 0.1% in November, as expected

The Producer Price Index for final demand edged up 0.1 percent in November, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices advanced 0.6 percent in October and 0.2 percent in September. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index moved up 2.5 percent for the 12 months ended in November.
In November, the rise in the final demand index can be traced to a 0.3-percent increase in prices for final demand services. In contrast, the index for final demand goods decreased 0.4 percent.
The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 0.3 percent in November, the third consecutive increase. For the 12 months ended in November, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services advanced 2.8 percent.



13:30
U.S.: PPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y, November 2.7% (forecast 2.6%)
13:30
U.S.: PPI excluding food and energy, m/m, November 0.3% (forecast 0.1%)
13:30
U.S.: PPI, y/y, November 2.5% (forecast 2.5%)
13:30
U.S.: PPI, m/m, November 0.1% (forecast 0%)
12:00
China is said to move on U.S. Car Tariff Cut Trump tweeted on @zerohedge
11:59
Oil prices ticked up Tuesday after losing steam again Monday, amid uncertainty on whether an OPEC-led production cut would be enough to move up a burgeoning crude supply glut and rebalance the market

  • Oil investors were weighing Tuesday the efficacy of a 1.2-million-barrel-a-day output cut announced by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies at the end of last week. The move, which is set to take effect in January, bolstered prices by as much as 5% Friday, but both benchmarks closed down roughly 3% Monday

10:33
The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany recorded an increase of 6.6 points in December

The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany recorded an increase of 6.6 points in December 2018 and now stands at minus 17.5 points. Despite this increase, the indicator is still clearly in negative territory and remains well below the long-term average of 22.5 points. The assessment of the current economic situation in Germany once again decreased considerably in December, with the corresponding indicator falling by 12.9 points to a level of 45.3 points.

“Although the rise in economic expectations is a welcome one, it should not be over-interpreted. The assessment of the economic situation has worsened dramatically for both Germany and the Eurozone. This is indicative of relatively weak economic growth in the fourth quarter. In addition, uncertainties also remain in terms of the looming international trade dispute and Brexit, which have a particularly negative impact on private investment and Germany’s exports,” comments ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach.


10:00
Eurozone: ZEW Economic Sentiment, December -21.0 (forecast -23.2)
09:59
Germany: ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment, December -17.5 (forecast -25)
09:59
UK average weekly earnings increased by 3.3%, both excluding and including bonuses

Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in nominal terms (that is, not adjusted for price inflation) increased by 3.3%, both excluding and including bonuses, compared with a year earlier.

Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in real terms (that is, adjusted for price inflation) increased by 1.0% excluding bonuses, and by 1.1% including bonuses, compared with a year earlier.


09:59
UK unemployment rate stable at 4.1% in October

Estimates from the Labour Force Survey show that, between May to July 2018 and August to October 2018, the number of people in work and the number of unemployed people both increased but the number of people aged from 16 to 64 years not working and not seeking nor available to work (economically inactive) decreased.

There were an estimated 32.48 million people in work, 79,000 more than for May to July 2018 and 396,000 more than for a year earlier.

The employment rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 years who were in work) was estimated at 75.7%, higher than for a year earlier (75.1%) and the joint-highest estimate since comparable estimates began in 1971.

There were an estimated 1.38 million unemployed people (people not in work but seeking and available to work), 20,000 more than for May to July 2018 but 49,000 fewer than for a year earlier.

The unemployment rate (the number of unemployed people as a proportion of all employed and unemployed people) was estimated at 4.1%, virtually unchanged compared with May to July 2018 but lower than the estimate for a year earlier (4.3%).


09:30
United Kingdom: Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y, October 3.3% (forecast 3.2%)
09:30
United Kingdom: Average Earnings, 3m/y , October 3.3% (forecast 3%)
09:30
United Kingdom: ILO Unemployment Rate, October 4.1% (forecast 4.1%)
09:30
United Kingdom: Claimant count , November 21.9 (forecast 13.2)
09:03
EU’s Juncker: Surprised By Brexit Turn Of Events, Reiterates Brexit Divorce Deal Is Only Deal Possible @LiveSquawk
09:03
FTSE +49.18 6770.72 +0.73% DAX +103.02 10725.09 +0.97% CAC +41.49 4783.87 +0.88%
07:57
Options levels on tuesday, December 11, 2018 EURUSD GBPUSD

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1515 (532)

$1.1484 (316)

$1.1467 (130)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1369

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1338 (2841)

$1.1306 (6183)

$1.1269 (4464)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date January, 7 is 66874 contracts (according to data from December, 10) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1650 (7773);


GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2973 (1500)

$1.2904 (372)

$1.2844 (93)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2574

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2518 (2111)

$1.2478 (1271)

$1.2429 (1335)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date January, 7 is 23238 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3300 (2346);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date January, 7 is 28384 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2500 (2748);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.22 versus 1.17 from the previous trading day according to data from December, 10

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

07:54
Futures: DAX +0,1% FTSE 0,0% CAC +0,1%
07:38
Australian house price index declined 1.5% in Q3, as expected

The price index for residential properties for the weighted average of the eight capital cities fell 1.5% in the September quarter 2018. The index fell 1.9% through the year to the September quarter 2018.

The capital city residential property price indexes fell in Melbourne (-2.6%), Sydney (-1.9%), Perth (-0.6%) and Darwin (-0.9%), and rose in Brisbane (+0.6%), Adelaide (+0.6%), Hobart (+1.3%) and Canberra (+0.5%).

Annually, residential property prices fell in Sydney (-4.4%), Darwin (-4.4%), Melbourne (-1.5%), Perth (-0.5%) and rose in Hobart (+13.0%), Canberra (+3.7%), Adelaide (+2.0%) and Brisbane (+1.7%).


07:35
Treasury yields held their ground Monday after stocks came off their lows, offsetting the geopolitical jitters from U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May's decision to delay a vote on her Brexit plan in Parliament

  • The 10-year U.S Treasury note yield was mostly unchanged at 2.856%, off the intraday low of 2.868%. The 2-year note yield picked up 1.6 basis points to 2.727%, while the 30-year bond slipped 1.6 basis points to 3.129%, its lowest since Sep. 13. Bond prices move in the opposite direction of yields

07:31
I have decided to call EUCO on Brexit on Thursday. We will not renegotiate the deal, but we are ready to discuss how to facilitate UK ratification @eucopresident

  • I have decided to call EUCO on Brexit (Art. 50) on Thursday. We will not renegotiate the deal, including the backstop, but we are ready to discuss how to facilitate UK ratification. As time is running out, we will also discuss our preparedness for a no-deal scenario.

07:30
French non farm payrolls rose less than expected q/q

In Q3 2018, net payroll job creation reached +15,000 (that is +0.1%), after +15,900 in the previous quarter. Payroll employment declined again in the public sector (-7,400), and increased slowly again in the private sector (+22,400). Year on year, it rose by 175,100 (that is +0.7%): 197,200 jobs were created in the private sector and 22,100 jobs destroyed in the public service.

Payroll employment remained almost stable in industry in Q3 2018 (– 900, that is 0.0%), showing nonetheless a year on year increase (+4,300).

The growth of payroll employment in construction remained strong: +5,400 (that is +0.4% as in Q2 2018). Year on year, the increase reached +29,100 jobs (that is +2.2%).


06:46
France: Non-Farm Payrolls, Quarter III 0.1%
06:01
Japan: Prelim Machine Tool Orders, y/y , November -16.8%
02:30
Commodities. Daily history for Monday, December 10, 2018
Raw materials Closed Change, %
Brent 59.91 -2.89
WTI 51.02 -2.97
Silver 14.5 -0.68
Gold 1244.085 -0.35
Palladium 1231.25 0.82
00:30
Stocks. Daily history for Monday, December 10, 2018
Index Change, points Closed Change, %
NIKKEI 225 -459.18 21219.5 -2.12
Hang Seng -311.38 25752.38 -1.19
KOSPI -21.97 2053.79 -1.06
ASX 200 -129 5552.5 -2.27
FTSE 100 -56.57 6721.54 -0.83
DAX -166.02 10622.07 -1.54
Dow Jones 34.31 24423.26 0.14
S&P 500 4.64 2637.72 0.18
NASDAQ Composite 51.27 7020.52 0.74
00:30
Australia: House Price Index (QoQ), Quarter III -1.5% (forecast -1.5%)
00:30
Australia: National Australia Bank's Business Confidence, November 3
00:15
Currencies. Daily history for Monday, December 10, 2018
Pare Closed Change, %
AUDUSD 0.71881 -0.2
EURJPY 128.663 0.14
EURUSD 1.13547 -0.46
GBPJPY 142.316 -0.78
GBPUSD 1.25599 -1.37
NZDUSD 0.687 0.12
USDCAD 1.33994 0.64
USDCHF 0.99016 0.07
USDJPY 113.307 0.61

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