CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 10-12-2018

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10.12.2018
23:51
Japan: BSI Manufacturing Index, Quarter IV 5.5
23:30
Schedule for today, Tuesday, December 11, 2018
Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
00:30 Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence November 4  
00:30 Australia House Price Index (QoQ) Quarter III -0.7% -1.5%
06:00 Japan Prelim Machine Tool Orders, y/y November -1.1%  
06:30 France Non-Farm Payrolls Quarter III 0.0%  
09:30 United Kingdom Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y October 3.2% 3.2%
09:30 United Kingdom Average Earnings, 3m/y October 3% 3%
09:30 United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate October 4.1% 4.1%
09:30 United Kingdom Claimant count November 20.2 13.2
10:00 Germany ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment December -24.1 -25
10:00 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment December -22.0 -23.2
13:30 U.S. PPI, y/y November 2.9% 2.6%
13:30 U.S. PPI, m/m November 0.6% 0%
13:30 U.S. PPI excluding food and energy, m/m November 0.5% 0.1%
13:30 U.S. PPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y November 2.6% 2.5%
19:15 New Zealand RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks    
23:30 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence December 104.3  
23:50 Japan Core Machinery Orders, y/y October -7% 5.9%
23:50 Japan Core Machinery Orders October -18.3% 10.5%
21:35
Major US stock indexes ended in positive territory

Major US stock indices rose slightly, playing back all previously lost positions, helped by the rise in the shares of the technology sector.

In addition, investors evaluated data for the United States. As the vacancy and labor turnover survey (JOLTS), published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, showed, in October the number of vacancies increased to 7.079 million from 6.96 million in September (revised from 7.009 million). Analysts had expected the number of vacancies to increase to 7.22 million. The level of vacancies increased by 0.1%, and amounted to 4.5%. The number of vacancies has changed little in the private sector and in the government sphere. As for industries, the number of vacancies increased in the field of information (+45,000), real estate, rent and leasing (+ 38,000), educational services (+20,000), and state and local education (+ 17,000). The number of vacancies decreased in state and local authorities, except education (-38 000), as well as the transport, warehousing and utilities sector (-33 000).

Most of the components of DOW recorded an increase (17 of 30). The growth leader was Microsoft Corporation (MSFT, + 2.64%). JPMorgan Chase & Co. shares turned out to be an outsider. (JPM, -1.87%).

Most sectors of the S & P finished trading in the red. The commodity sector fell the most (-1.3%). The growth leader was the technology sector (+ 0.9%).

Dow 24,423.26 +34.31 + 0.14%

S & P 500 2,637.72 +4.64 + 0.18%

Nasdaq 100 7,020.52 +51.27 + 0.74%

20:50
Schedule for tomorrow, Tuesday, December 11, 2018
Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
00:30 Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence November 4  
00:30 Australia House Price Index (QoQ) Quarter III -0.7% -1.5%
06:00 Japan Prelim Machine Tool Orders, y/y November -1.1%  
06:30 France Non-Farm Payrolls Quarter III 0.0%  
09:30 United Kingdom Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y October 3.2% 3.2%
09:30 United Kingdom Average Earnings, 3m/y October 3% 3%
09:30 United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate October 4.1% 4.1%
09:30 United Kingdom Claimant count November 20.2 13.2
10:00 Germany ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment December -24.1 -25
10:00 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment December -22.0 -23.2
13:30 U.S. PPI, y/y November 2.9% 2.6%
13:30 U.S. PPI, m/m November 0.6% 0%
13:30 U.S. PPI excluding food and energy, m/m November 0.5% 0.1%
13:30 U.S. PPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y November 2.6% 2.5%
19:15 New Zealand RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks    
23:30 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence December 104.3  
23:50 Japan Core Machinery Orders, y/y October -7% 5.9%
23:50 Japan Core Machinery Orders October -18.3% 10.5%
20:00
DJIA -0.22% 24,334.88 -54.07 Nasdaq +0.46% 7,001.37 +32.12 S&P -0.15% 2,629.02 -4.06
17:00
European stocks closed: FTSE 100 -56.57 6721.54 -0.83% DAX -166.02 10622.07 -1.54% CAC 40 -70.75 4742.38 -1.47%
15:02
The number of U.S job openings was little changed at 7.1 million on the last business day of October

The number of job openings was little changed at 7.1 million on the last business day of October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires edged up to 5.9 million, and separations were little changed at 5.6 million. Within separations, the quits rate was little changed at 2.3 percent and the layoffs and discharges rate was unchanged at 1.1 percent. This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the nonfarm sector by industry and by four geographic regions.


15:00
U.S.: JOLTs Job Openings, October 7.079 (forecast 7.22)
14:34
U.S. Stocks open: Dow +0.01%, Nasdaq +0.23%, S&P 0.00%
14:04
United Kingdom: NIESR GDP Estimate, November 0.3%
13:57
Wall Street. Stocks before the bell

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)


ALTRIA GROUP INC.

MO

54.42

0.24(0.44%)

7009

Amazon.com Inc., NASDAQ

AMZN

1,621.87

-7.26(-0.45%)

91743

AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP

AIG

38.39

0.49(1.29%)

985

Apple Inc.

AAPL

166.54

-1.95(-1.16%)

480168

Barrick Gold Corporation, NYSE

ABX

13.76

0.08(0.58%)

99890

Boeing Co

BA

323.27

0.05(0.02%)

10411

Caterpillar Inc

CAT

123.45

-0.10(-0.08%)

33490

Chevron Corp

CVX

115

-0.49(-0.42%)

2780

Cisco Systems Inc

CSCO

46.56

0.12(0.26%)

15596

Citigroup Inc., NYSE

C

58.1

-0.25(-0.43%)

36467

Deere & Company, NYSE

DE

147

-0.26(-0.18%)

1235

Exxon Mobil Corp

XOM

77.31

-0.33(-0.43%)

3699

Facebook, Inc.

FB

139.02

1.60(1.16%)

157357

FedEx Corporation, NYSE

FDX

199.25

-2.14(-1.06%)

7146

Ford Motor Co.

F

8.87

0.05(0.57%)

45148

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., NYSE

FCX

10.91

-0.01(-0.09%)

39092

General Electric Co

GE

6.98

-0.03(-0.43%)

215234

General Motors Company, NYSE

GM

34.63

-0.06(-0.17%)

6795

Goldman Sachs

GS

180.45

0.78(0.43%)

3715

Google Inc.

GOOG

1,036.00

-0.58(-0.06%)

3166

Hewlett-Packard Co.

HPQ

22.89

-0.04(-0.17%)

1118

Home Depot Inc

HD

173.02

0.23(0.13%)

3165

HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL INC.

HON

139.47

0.76(0.55%)

267

Intel Corp

INTC

46.4

0.16(0.35%)

31130

International Business Machines Co...

IBM

119.51

0.17(0.14%)

4088

International Paper Company

IP

44.5

-0.26(-0.58%)

640

Johnson & Johnson

JNJ

145.45

0.02(0.01%)

632

JPMorgan Chase and Co

JPM

103.41

0.12(0.12%)

7723

McDonald's Corp

MCD

182.97

0.01(0.01%)

665

Microsoft Corp

MSFT

105.29

0.47(0.45%)

82000

Nike

NKE

73.29

-0.05(-0.07%)

1286

Pfizer Inc

PFE

43.93

0.01(0.02%)

5676

Procter & Gamble Co

PG

92.67

0.22(0.24%)

4854

Starbucks Corporation, NASDAQ

SBUX

65.64

0.17(0.26%)

2715

Tesla Motors, Inc., NASDAQ

TSLA

361.35

3.39(0.95%)

127200

The Coca-Cola Co

KO

48.95

-0.14(-0.29%)

625

Twitter, Inc., NYSE

TWTR

33

0.17(0.52%)

31018

United Technologies Corp

UTX

119.5

0.05(0.04%)

1278

UnitedHealth Group Inc

UNH

270

0.82(0.30%)

3407

Verizon Communications Inc

VZ

57.62

-0.06(-0.10%)

5171

Visa

V

137.5

0.39(0.28%)

5180

Wal-Mart Stores Inc

WMT

93.22

0.03(0.03%)

2492

Walt Disney Co

DIS

112.03

0.05(0.04%)

2302

Yandex N.V., NASDAQ

YNDX

28.7

0.02(0.07%)

310

13:47
Downgrades before the market open

FedEx (FDX) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill

13:43
May is said to seek better Brexit deal at Brussels Summit @zerohedge
13:33
Canadian municipalities issued $8.1 billion worth of building permits in October, edging down 0.2% from September

The decrease was mainly attributable to lower construction intentions for industrial and institutional buildings.

The value of non-residential building permits fell 7.0% in October to $2.9 billion. Eight provinces posted declines, most notably British Columbia.

In the industrial component, the value of building permits fell 29.9% to $439 million, the third consecutive monthly decrease. Declines were reported in nine provinces, with Manitoba the lone province to post an increase.

The value of institutional building permits was down 8.7% in October to $733 million, after posting an increase of 16.7% the previous month. Lower construction intentions for hospitals, post-secondary institutions, and other government buildings were responsible for much of the decrease.


13:30
Canada: Building Permits (MoM) , October -0.2% (forecast -0.2%)
13:27
UK economic growth looks set to slow to a quarterly rate of 0.4% in the fourth quarter - NIESR

UK economic growth looks set to slow to a quarterly rate of 0.4% in the fourth quarter of 2018 from 0.6% in the third quarter. This profile is unchanged from last month and points to GDP growth of 1.4 per cent in 2018. Growth is being driven by the service sector and a continued robust performance from construction. Manufacturing industry showed no growth in the latest three months.

Garry Young, head of macroeconomic modelling and forecasting at NIESR, said “The latest data confirm that UK GDP growth is slowing after a strong performance in the middle of the year, and the risks appear to be to the downside. Final quarter GDP growth is set to be around 0.4 per cent, in line with potential, and implies that GDP growth for 2018 as a whole will be 1.4 per cent. Growth is being driven by the service and construction sectors. Manufacturing output growth appears to have stalled. Recent service sector surveys have been weak and point to further downside risks.”

13:16
Canada: Housing Starts, November 215.9 (forecast 196)
12:13
European Commission says "we have agreement on table" on Brexit, this deal is the best and only possible @zerohedge

  • European commission says "we have agreement on table" on brexit, this deal is the best and only possible "we will not renegotiate" on brexit - EU spokesowman quotes Juncker

11:00
The PM has called together all her senior aides for a meeting on the Meaningful Vote in No10 now. A decision on whether to pull it appears imminent @tnewtondunn

  • Asked If The Brexit Vote Still Happening Tuesday, Spokeswoman For UK PM May Says Yes, The Vote Is Going Ahead As Planned

09:55
In December, the sentix overall index for the economy in Euro Area falls for the 4th time in a row to -0.3

Situation values and expectations are falling equally, even in individual countries such as Germany. The dynamics of the downturn are similar to those of the pre-crisis year 2007. Expectations, as weak as in August 2012, challenge the (monetary) policy.

There are no rays of hope to be reported internationally. In all regions, including the USA, which is accustomed to success, the situation values and expectations collapsed. A further interest rate hike by the Fed or an intensification of the US-China trade dispute seems to be the last thing the global economy needs at the moment.


09:51
Eurozone: Sentix Investor Confidence, December -0.3
09:51
In the three months to October 2018, UK services output increased by 0.3%

In the three months to October 2018, services output increased by 0.3% compared with the three months ending July 2018.

The information and communication, and professional, scientific and technical activities sectors were responsible for this growth.

The Index of Services increased by 0.2% between September 2018 and October 2018.

The professional, scientific and technical activities sector made the largest contribution to the month-on-month growth, contributing 0.11 percentage points.

In the three months to October 2018, services output increased by 1.7% compared with the three months ending October 2017.


09:45
The total UK trade deficit (goods and services) widened £3.1 billion in the three months to October

The total trade deficit (goods and services) widened £3.1 billion in the three months to October 2018; the goods deficit widened £1.7 billion and the services surplus narrowed £1.3 billion.

The widening in the goods deficit was due mainly to a £3.6 billion increase in imports, as exports rose by a lesser £1.9 billion.

Trade in unspecified goods (including non-monetary gold) and chemicals had the largest widening effect on the goods deficit, which was partially offset by trade in cars in the three months to October 2018.

The trade in goods deficit widened £3.1 billion with non-EU countries and narrowed £1.4 billion with the EU in the three months to October 2018.

Removing the effect of inflation, the total trade deficit widened £3.0 billion in the three months to October 2018.

The total trade deficit widened £5.4 billion in the 12 months to October 2018 due mainly to a £5.1 billion narrowing in the trade in services surplus.


09:44
UK industrial production declined 0.6% in October

The rise of 0.3% in total production output for the three months to October 2018, compared with the three months to July 2018, is due primarily to rises of 1.8% in electricity and gas supply and 2.7% in mining and quarrying.

Three monthly total manufacturing output is flat, with growth in basic metals (1.7%) and transport equipment (1.2%), partially offset by a fall of 2.8% in pharmaceutical products.

In October 2018, total production output fell by 0.6%, compared with September 2018, due to a fall of 0.9% in manufacturing; this was partially offset by a 1.8% increase in mining and quarrying.

The monthly decrease in manufacturing output of 0.9% was due mainly to weakness from transport equipment, falling by 3.2% and pharmaceutical products, falling by 5.0%; 5 of the 13 manufacturing subsectors increased.


09:41
UK gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.4% in the three months to October

Commenting on today’s GDP figures for the three months to October, Head of National Accounts Rob Kent-Smith said:

“GDP growth slowed going into the autumn after a strong summer, with a softening in services sector growth mainly due to a fall in car sales. This was offset by a strong showing from IT and accountancy.

“Manufacturing saw no growth at all in the latest three months, mainly due to a decline in the often-erratic pharmaceutical industry. Construction, while slowing slightly, continued its recent solid performance with growth in housebuilding and infrastructure.”


09:30
United Kingdom: Total Trade Balance, October -3.3
09:30
United Kingdom: Manufacturing Production (MoM) , October -0.9% (forecast 0%)
09:30
United Kingdom: Industrial Production (MoM), October -0.6% (forecast -0.4%)
09:30
United Kingdom: Manufacturing Production (YoY), October -1% (forecast 0%)
09:30
United Kingdom: Industrial Production (YoY), October -0.8% (forecast -0.2%)
09:30
United Kingdom: GDP m/m, October 0.1% (forecast 0.1%)
08:04
St. Louis Fed Chief James Bullard Suggests Fed Hold Rates Steady
07:29
RBA Kent: Next Rate Move Likely Up, But Not Anytime Soon @LiveSquawk
07:27
Brainard: 'Strong Case' Can be Made for Increasing Capital Buffers in Strong Economy

  • Leveraged Lending 'Rebounded' over Past Year

  • Leveraged Loans Packaged in CLOs Expose Banks to 'Pipeline Risk'

  • Leveraged Loans Vulnerable to Sudden Rise in Spreads, Other Economic Shifts

  • It 'Might Be Prudent' to Increase Capital Buffers for Large Banks

07:25
Fed's Brainard: Gradual Rate Increases Still Appropriate 'In the Near Term'

  • Rate Path Increasingly Will Depend on How Economic Outlook Evolves

  • Risks on 'Both Sides' of Economic Outlook

  • Economy Has Been Strong, Recent Wage Growth 'Welcome'

  • 'Some Tailwinds' to Economic Growth Are Fading

  • Global Growth Has Moderated

  • U.S. Fiscal Policy Impetus Likely to Fade Going Into 2020

  • Financial Conditions Have Tightened in Recent Months

  • Seeing Elevated Vulnerabilities in Non-Financial Business Sector

07:20
Swiss unemployment rate declined 0.1% to 2.4% in November

According to SECO surveys, at the end of November 2018, 110,474 unemployed people were enrolled in the Regional Employment Centers (RAV), 3,159 more than in the previous month. The unemployment rate rose from 2.4% in October 2018 to 2.5% in the month under review. Compared with the same month last year, unemployment fell by 26,843 (-19.5%). Youth unemployment in November 2018 Youth unemployment (aged 15-24) fell by 44 (-0.3%) to 13,020. Compared to the same month of the previous year, this represents a decrease of 3'550 persons (-21.4%).

07:19
German foreign trade balance showed a surplus of 18.3 billion euros in October

Germany exported goods to the value of 117.2 billion euros and imported goods to the value of 98.9 billion euros in October 2018. Based on provisional data, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that German exports increased by 8.5% and imports by 11.3% in October 2018 year on year. After calendar and seasonal adjustment, exports were up 0.7% and imports 1.3% compared with September 2018.

The foreign trade balance showed a surplus of 18.3 billion euros in October 2018. In October 2017, the surplus amounted to 19.1 billion euros. In calendar and seasonally adjusted terms, the foreign trade balance recorded a surplus of 17.3 billion euros in October 2018.


07:16
Germany: Trade Balance (non s.a.), bln, October 18.3
07:01
Germany: Current Account , October 15.9
06:45
Switzerland: Unemployment Rate (non s.a.), November 2.5%
06:09
Options levels on monday, December 10, 2018 EURUSD GBPUSD

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1579 (1309)

$1.1563 (484)

$1.1531 (130)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1437

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1361 (2743)

$1.1323 (5860)

$1.1282 (4248)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date January, 7 is 65345 contracts (according to data from December, 7) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1650 (7772);


GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3044 (1492)

$1.3017 (348)

$1.2970 (112)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2751

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2673 (660)

$1.2650 (544)

$1.2624 (2115)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date January, 7 is 22900 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3300 (2352);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date January, 7 is 26835 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2500 (2710);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.17 versus 0.80 from the previous trading day according to data from December, 7

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

05:16
Japan: Eco Watchers Survey: Current , November 51 (forecast 49.5)
05:16
Japan: Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook, November 52.2
02:30
Commodities. Daily history for Friday, December 7, 2018
Raw materials Closed Change, %
Brent 61.6 2.26
WTI 52.57 1.51
Silver 14.6 1.11
Gold 1248.304 0.85
Palladium 1221.46 1.24
00:30
Stocks. Daily history for Friday, December 7, 2018
Index Change, points Closed Change, %
NIKKEI 225 177.06 21678.68 0.82
Hang Seng -92.62 26063.76 -0.35
KOSPI 7.07 2075.76 0.34
ASX 200 23.8 5681.5 0.42
FTSE 100 74.06 6778.11 1.1
DAX -22.89 10788.09 -0.21
CAC 40 32.67 4813.13 0.68
Dow Jones -558.72 24388.95 -2.24
S&P 500 -62.87 2633.08 -2.33
NASDAQ Composite -219.01 6969.25 -3.05
00:30
Australia: Home Loans , October 2.2% (forecast 0%)
00:15
Currencies. Daily history for Friday, December 7, 2018
Pare Closed Change, %
AUDUSD 0.72057 -0.38
EURJPY 128.504 0.27
EURUSD 1.14099 0.31
GBPJPY 143.496 -0.36
GBPUSD 1.27413 -0.33
NZDUSD 0.68604 -0.25
USDCAD 1.33104 -0.52
USDCHF 0.98944 -0.31
USDJPY 112.619 -0.04

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