CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 09-03-2018

• Says North Korea coming to table despite U.S. making "zero concessions" and increasing pressure on Kim regime

Total inventories of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers' sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were $619.1 billion at the end of January, up 0.8 percent from the revised December level. Total inventories were up 4.8 percent from the revised January 2017 level. The December 2017 to January 2018 percent change was revised from the advance estimate of up 0.7 percent (±0.4 percent) to up 0.8 percent.

The January inventories/sales ratio for merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers' sales branches and offices, based on seasonally adjusted data, was 1.26. The January 2017 ratio was 1.28.

U.S. stock-index futures rose on Friday, after payrolls data showed wage increases were muted in February, cooling expectations of a faster rise in inflation.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei 21,469.20 +101.13 +0.47%

Hang Seng 30,996.21 +341.69 +1.11%

Shanghai 3,307.64 +19.23 +0.58%

S&P/ASX 5,963.20 +20.30 +0.34%

FTSE 7,221.90 +18.66 +0.26%

CAC 5,290.34 +36.24 +0.69%

DAX 12,391.70 +36.13 +0.29%

Crude $60.73 (+1.01%)

Gold $1,316.60 (-0.39%)

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

Canadian industries operated at 86.0% of their production capacity in the fourth quarter, up from 85.1% the previous quarter. This was the sixth consecutive quarterly increase.

The mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction sector and the construction sector were the main sources of the increase.

Employment was little changed in February (+15,000). The unemployment rate declined by 0.1 percentage points to 5.8%.

On a year-over-year basis, employment grew by 283,000 or 1.5%. All of this increase was attributable to gains in full-time work (+283,000 or +1.9%), while part-time employment was unchanged. Over the same period, hours worked rose by 3.2%.

In February, employment increased for both men and women in the core working age group (25 to 54), while there was little change for youth aged 15 to 24 and for people aged 55 and older.

Employment increased in New Brunswick and Nova Scotia, while it decreased in Saskatchewan. There was little change in the other provinces.

Employment gains were observed in several industries, led by health care and social assistance. At the same time, employment declined in a number of other industries, including wholesale and retail trade, and manufacturing.

The number of employees increased in the public sector, while it held steady in the private sector. The number of self-employed workers decreased.

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 313,000 in February, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment rose in construction, retail trade, professional and business services, manufacturing, financial activities, and mining.

In February, the unemployment rate was 4.1 percent for the fifth consecutive month, and the number of unemployed persons was essentially unchanged at 6.7 million.

In February, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 4 cents to $26.75, following a 7-cent gain in January. Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by 68 cents, or 2.6 percent. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 6 cents to $22.40 in February.

Monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output growth slowed to 0.3 per cent in the 3 months to February from 0.4 per cent in the 3 months to January and the official estimate of 0.4 per cent for the final quarter of 2017.

Amit Kara, Head of UK Macroeconomic Forecasting at NIESR, said "We estimate that economic growth nudged lower to 0.3 per cent in the 3 months to February. Activity has eased slightly and is likely to slow further in March when the full impact of the recent extreme weather conditions will be realised. Economic growth continues to be driven by both the manufacturing and the service sectors, supported by a buoyant global economy, while construction output lags".

The total UK trade (goods and services) deficit widened by £3.4 billion to £8.7 billion in the three months to January 2018; excluding erratic commodities, the deficit widened by £2.6 billion to £8.9 billion.

The £3.4 billion widening of the total trade (goods and services) deficit was due to a £3.2 billion widening of the trade in goods deficit and a £0.2 billion narrowing of the trade in services surplus.

The widening of the trade in goods deficit was due mainly to a £1.3 billion increase in imports (particularly fuels) from non-EU countries, combined with a £1.2 billion decrease in exports (including fuels) to non-EU countries, in the three months to January 2018.

In the three months to January 2018, the Index of Production increased by 0.2% compared with the three months to October 2017, due to a rise of 0.9% in manufacturing; this was partially offset by a decrease of 6.4% in mining and quarrying, caused mainly by the shut-down of the Forties oil pipeline within December 2017.

Total production output increased by 1.4% for the three months to January 2018 compared with the same three months to January 2017; manufacturing provided the largest upward contribution with an increase of 2.6%.

In January 2018, total production was estimated to have increased by 1.3% compared with December 2017; mining and quarrying provided the largest upward contribution, increasing by 23.5% due mainly to the re-opening of the Forties oil pipeline.

• Says Europe is not a threat to U.S. security, EU expects to be excluded from tariffs

• EU still believes that tariff decision is bad, bad for global economy

China's inflation rose sharply to the highest level in more than four years in February driven by a rebound in food prices. Meanwhile, producer price inflation slowed to a 15-month low, says rttnews.

People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said China is in a period of stabilizing and gradually reducing leverage. He said China will reduce its reliance on capital support as it aims higher quality growth.

Inflation rose to 2.9 percent in February from 1.5 percent in January, the National Bureau of Statistics reported Friday. This was the highest since November 2013. The increase in inflation was largely caused by the timing of the lunar new year holiday.

In January 2018, output diminished sharply in the manufacturing industry (−1.1% after −0.1%) as well as in the whole industry (−2.0% after +0.2%).

Output increased slightly by 0.3% over the last three months both in the manufacturing industry and in the overall industry.

Output went up in the manufacture of transport equipment (+1.2%) and in the manufacture of machinery and equipment goods (+1.2%). It grew slightly in "other manufacturing" (+0.2%) and increased in the manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products (+0.9%). Conversely, it decreased in the manufacture of food products and beverages (−1.3%). It was stable in mining and quarrying, energy, water supply.

• Concerned U.S. tariffs will cause serious, harmful effects on Japan's and global steel trade

• Says Japan's economy expanding moderately, keeps assessment unchanged

• Maintains 10-year jgb yield target around zero pct

• Decision on yield curve control made by 8-1 vote, board member Kataoka dissents

• Kataoka says need to buy jgbs so yield for duration of 10 years or longer falls further

• Housing investment moving on a weak note

• Kataoka says currently chance of inflation rising toward 2 pct is low

• Kataoka says BoJ should clarify it will ease further if domestic factors delay achievement of price target

Germany exported goods to the value of 107.1 billion euros and imported goods to the value of 89.7 billion euros in January 2018. Based on provisional data, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that German exports increased by 8.6% and imports by 6.7% in January 2018 year on year. Compared with December 2017, both exports and imports decreased by a calendar and seasonally adjusted 0.5%.

The foreign trade balance showed a surplus of 17.4 billion euros in January 2018. In January 2017, the surplus amounted to 14.6 billion euros. In calendar and seasonally adjusted terms, the foreign trade balance recorded a surplus of 21.3 billion euros in January 2018.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2452 (6146)

$1.2404 (5371)

$1.2361 (4029)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2317

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2280 (5098)

$1.2244 (3543)

$1.2198 (4847)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date March, 9 is 137805 contracts (according to data from March, 8) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2400 (6529);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3952 (1973)

$1.3904 (2580)

$1.3861 (1776)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3809

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3773 (2034)

$1.3740 (1577)

$1.3696 (1536)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date March, 9 is 49313 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3800 (2975);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date March, 9 is 47174 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3900 (2335);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.96 versus 0.92 from the previous trading day according to data from March, 8

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

In January 2017, production in industry was down by 0.1% from the previous month on a price, seasonally and working day adjusted basis according to provisional data of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). In December 2017, the corrected figure shows a decrease of 0.5% (primary -0.6%) from November 2017.

In January 2018, production in industry excluding energy and construction was up by 0.6%. Within industry, the production of capital goods increased by 1.4% and the production of consumer goods by 2.0%. The production of intermediate goods showed a decrease by 1.2%. Energy production was down by 3.3% in January 2018 and the production in construction decreased by 2.2%.

Most Asia-Pacific stocks posted more wide, strong gains Friday with the region getting a fresh boost from news that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and President Donald Trump agreed to meet by May. But some of the gains cooled as the morning progressed, with traders digesting the real implications.

European stocks leapt to a one-week high Thursday after the European Central Bank offered a brighter assessment of economic growth in the eurozone, and as the euro retreated from intraday gains.

The stock market closed higher and the Nasdaq extended its winning streak for a fifth session Thursday after President Donald Trump signed a proclamation to impose tariffs of 25% on imported steel and 10% on aluminum, but exempted Canada and Mexico while allowing other countries to negotiate exclusions.