CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 09-02-2018

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09.02.2018
21:07
Major US stock indexes rose by the end of today's trading

Major US stock indexes fluctuated between profit and loss, but eventually completed the trading with a confident increase, having received support from reports of US President Trump signing a bill to extend government funding.

The focus was also on the United States. As it became known, wholesale stocks in the US grew stronger than expected in December, although more slowly than a month earlier. Commodity stocks in warehouses of wholesale trade increased by 0.4% to $ 612.1 billion, outperforming growth estimates of 0.2%. In November, the number of unsold stocks on wholesalers shelves increased by 0.6%, the November figure was revised from 0.8 percent in a preliminary report released on Friday. At current levels, it would take 1.22 months for wholesalers to free their shelves, which is more than last year's ratio of 1.29.

Oil prices fell more than 3%, recording a sixth consecutive shedding in a row and the largest weekly loss in 10 months, as the record volume of oil production in the US added to fears of a sharp increase in global supplies.

Most components of the DOW index finished trading in positive territory (26 out of 30). Leader of the growth were shares of NIKE, Inc. (NKE, + 5.15%). Outsider were shares United Technologies Corporation (UTX, -0.77%).

Almost all sectors of S & P recorded a rise. The technological sector grew most (+ 2.4%). Decrease showed only the conglomerate sector (-1.2%).

At closing:

Dow + 1.38% 24.190.90 +330.44

Nasdaq + 1.44% 6,874.49 +97.33

S & P + 1.49% 2,619.55 +38.55

20:01
DJIA +0.15% 23,896.68 +36.22 Nasdaq +0.38% 6,802.71 +25.55 S&P +0.31% 2,589.04 +8.04
18:01
U.S.: Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count, February 791
17:02
European stocks closed: FTSE 100 -78.26 7092.43 -1.09% DAX -152.81 12107.48 -1.25% CAC 40 -72.47 5079.21 -1.41%
15:21
USD/SGD Analysis

USD/SGD has been following a bearish trend for several weeks.

If we look on weekly time frame chart, we can see that the price is now moving close to the downside trend line and to the previous support.

Therefore, if the price starts to reject the blue zone (previous support level) then we can expect a further bearish movement close to the previous low and even lower.


15:11
U.S wholesale inventories rose more than expected in December

Total inventories of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers' sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were $612.1 billion at the end of December, up 0.4 percent from the revised November level. Total inventories were up 3.4 percent from the revised December 2016 level. The November 2017 to December 2017 percent change was revised from the advance estimate of up 0.2 percent to up 0.4 percent.

The December inventories/sales ratio for merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers' sales branches and offices, based on seasonally adjusted data, was 1.22. The December 2016 ratio was 1.29.

15:00
U.S.: Wholesale Inventories, December 0.4% (forecast 0.2%)
14:32
U.S. Stocks open: Dow +1.04% Nasdaq +1.22%, S&P +1.04%
14:18
Before the bell: S&P futures +0.38%, NASDAQ futures +0.76%

U.S. stock-index futures pointув to a higher open on Friday after a sharp decline in the U.S. stock market in the previous session amid concerns about mounting volatility and worries about inflation and rising bond yields.


Global Stocks:

Nikkei 21,382.62 -508.24 -2.32%

Hang Seng 29,507.42 -943.85 -3.10%

Shanghai 3,130.93 -131.12 -4.02%

S&P/ASX 5,838.00 -52.70 -0.89%

FTSE 7,111.73 -58.96 -0.82%

CAC 5,091.42 -60.26 -1.17%

DAX 12,135.93 -124.36 -1.01%

Crude $60.53 (-1.01%)

Gold $1,317.40 (-0.12%)

13:49
Wall Street. Stocks before the bell

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)


3M Co

MMM

225.4

2.51(1.13%)

8063

ALCOA INC.

AA

46.23

0.25(0.54%)

600

ALTRIA GROUP INC.

MO

64.5

0.45(0.70%)

5312

Amazon.com Inc., NASDAQ

AMZN

1,371.85

21.35(1.58%)

119869

American Express Co

AXP

89.13

0.79(0.89%)

5453

AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP

AIG

59.51

1.23(2.11%)

11300

Apple Inc.

AAPL

156.51

1.99(1.29%)

271597

AT&T Inc

T

35.75

0.18(0.51%)

26180

Barrick Gold Corporation, NYSE

ABX

13.24

0.01(0.08%)

10774

Boeing Co

BA

333.2

3.54(1.07%)

39662

Caterpillar Inc

CAT

147.47

1.48(1.01%)

11199

Chevron Corp

CVX

113.1

0.80(0.71%)

4838

Cisco Systems Inc

CSCO

39.1

0.33(0.85%)

41248

Citigroup Inc., NYSE

C

72.5

0.63(0.88%)

7014

Exxon Mobil Corp

XOM

75.9

0.60(0.80%)

38792

Facebook, Inc.

FB

173.51

1.93(1.12%)

169573

FedEx Corporation, NYSE

FDX

232.88

-6.39(-2.67%)

133457

Ford Motor Co.

F

10.51

0.08(0.77%)

56665

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., NYSE

FCX

17.22

0.06(0.35%)

6701

General Electric Co

GE

14.64

0.19(1.31%)

325931

General Motors Company, NYSE

GM

41.1

0.35(0.86%)

7970

Goldman Sachs

GS

248.82

2.47(1.00%)

7490

Google Inc.

GOOG

1,007.25

5.73(0.57%)

13237

Hewlett-Packard Co.

HPQ

20.21

0.29(1.46%)

846

Home Depot Inc

HD

183.33

2.11(1.16%)

11435

HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL INC.

HON

148

1.98(1.36%)

222

Intel Corp

INTC

43.12

0.37(0.87%)

114376

International Business Machines Co...

IBM

148.98

1.39(0.94%)

7428

International Paper Company

IP

56.3

0.25(0.45%)

1348

Johnson & Johnson

JNJ

127

0.64(0.51%)

8572

JPMorgan Chase and Co

JPM

108.87

0.99(0.92%)

24749

McDonald's Corp

MCD

159.55

0.58(0.36%)

5767

Merck & Co Inc

MRK

55.06

0.33(0.60%)

4888

Microsoft Corp

MSFT

85.65

0.64(0.75%)

150974

Nike

NKE

62.59

0.10(0.16%)

6331

Pfizer Inc

PFE

33.91

0.28(0.83%)

13757

Procter & Gamble Co

PG

80.68

0.46(0.57%)

10036

Starbucks Corporation, NASDAQ

SBUX

54.04

0.27(0.50%)

7098

Tesla Motors, Inc., NASDAQ

TSLA

318.89

3.66(1.16%)

67745

The Coca-Cola Co

KO

43.35

0.25(0.58%)

7969

Travelers Companies Inc

TRV

135.4

0.39(0.29%)

2751

Twitter, Inc., NYSE

TWTR

30.47

0.29(0.96%)

521993

United Technologies Corp

UTX

128.25

0.77(0.60%)

2106

UnitedHealth Group Inc

UNH

216.95

0.49(0.23%)

3739

Verizon Communications Inc

VZ

49.3

0.26(0.53%)

9835

Visa

V

114.69

0.83(0.73%)

8628

Wal-Mart Stores Inc

WMT

100.37

0.35(0.35%)

9772

Walt Disney Co

DIS

102.07

0.72(0.71%)

17755

Yandex N.V., NASDAQ

YNDX

35.56

0.36(1.02%)

13700

13:47
Upgrades before the market open

United Tech (UTX) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Argus

Chevron (CVX) upgraded to Sector Perform from Underperform at RBC Capital Mkts

Twitter (TWTR) upgraded to Sector Perform from Underperform at RBC Capital Mkts

13:34
Big miss for Canadian employment in January

Following two months of increases, employment fell by 88,000 in January. Part-time employment declined (-137,000), while full-time employment was up (+49,000). At the same time, the unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 5.9%.

On a year-over-year basis, employment grew by 289,000 or 1.6%. Gains were driven by increases in full-time work (+414,000 or +2.8%), while there were fewer people working part time (-125,000 or -3.5%). Over the same period, hours worked rose by 2.8%.

n January, employment declined for core-aged women (25 to 54 years old), as well as people 55 and older and youth aged 15 to 24. There was little change for core-aged men.

The largest employment declines were in Ontario and Quebec. There were also decreases in New Brunswick and Manitoba.

13:30
Canada: Employment , January -88 (forecast 10)
13:30
Canada: Unemployment rate, January 5.9% (forecast 5.8%)
13:20
United Kingdom: NIESR GDP Estimate, January 0.5% (forecast 0.3%)
12:16
EU's Barnier says if diferences persisit, a transition is not given

  • There was no update from Britain on Brexit

  • UK withdrawal from EU, customs union would make border checks inevitable

  • There must be no ambiguity in UK deal on Irish border

12:13
Company News: American Intl (AIG) Q4 earnings miss analysts’ estimate

American Intl (AIG) reported Q4 FY 2017 earnings of $0.57 per share (versus -$2.96 in Q4 FY 2016), missing analysts' consensus estimate of $0.75.

AIG fell to $59.23 (+1.63%) in pre-market trading.

11:10
RRussia C.Bank says short-term pro-inflationary risks have abated, therefore the balance of inflationary and economic risks has shifted slightly towards the risks to economic growth
10:22
Romania's Central Bank governor Isarescu says local labour market remains very tensioned

  • Witnesses private investment jump but steep decline of public investments

09:36
UK trade deficit widened by £3.8 billion to £10.8 billion in the three months to December

The total UK trade (goods and services) deficit widened by £3.8 billion to £10.8 billion in the three months to December 2017; excluding erratic commodities, the deficit widened by £1.5 billion to £9.0 billion.

The £3.8 billion widening of the total trade (goods and services) deficit was due to a £3.3 billion widening of the trade in goods deficit and a £0.5 billion narrowing of the trade in services surplus; the trade deficit in fuels (oil) had the largest impact on the widening of the trade in goods deficit.

The widening of the trade in goods deficit was due mainly to a 3.8% (£2.1 billion) increase in imports from non-EU countries, alongside decreases in exports to the EU, in the three months to December 2017.

09:35
UK industrial production declined more than expected in December

In the three months to December 2017, the Index of Production was estimated to have increased by 0.5% compared with the three months to September 2017, due to a rise of 1.3% in manufacturing; this was partially offset by a decrease of 4.7% in mining and quarrying, caused mainly by the shut-down of the Forties oil pipeline for a large part of December 2017.

Within manufacturing, 9 of the 13 manufacturing sub-sectors experienced growth; the largest contribution to quarterly growth came from basic metals and metal products, which increased by 5.7%.

Total production output increased by 2.3% for the three months to December 2017 compared with the same three months to December 2016; manufacturing provided the largest upward contribution with an increase of 3.4%.

09:31
United Kingdom: Total Trade Balance, December -4.89 (forecast -2.4)
09:30
United Kingdom: Manufacturing Production (MoM) , December 0.3% (forecast 0.3%)
09:30
United Kingdom: Manufacturing Production (YoY), December 1.4% (forecast 1.2%)
09:30
United Kingdom: Industrial Production (YoY), December 0% (forecast 0.3%)
09:30
United Kingdom: Industrial Production (MoM), December -1.3% (forecast -0.9%)
09:22
Major stock exchanges in Europe started trading in the red zone: FTSE 7133.50 -37.19 -0.52%, DAX 12225.65 -34.64 -0.28%, CAC 5130.68 -21.00 -0.41%
07:45
France: Industrial Production, m/m, December 0.5% (forecast 0.1%)
07:41
Options levels on friday, February 9, 2017

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2403 (2689)

$1.2359 (1671)

$1.2307 (3148)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2269

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2234 (3748)

$1.2194 (6645)

$1.2147 (3311)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date February, 9 is 128504 contracts (according to data from February, 8) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2200 (6645);


GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.4153 (724)

$1.4105 (1126)

$1.4059 (738)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3975

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3876 (1643)

$1.3839 (1598)

$1.3795 (1064)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date February, 9 is 44389 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3900 (3490);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date February, 9 is 41549 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3400 (3038);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.94 versus 0.91 from the previous trading day according to data from February, 8

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

07:04
Eurostoxx 50 futures down 0.4 pct, DAX futures down 0.1 pct, CAC 40 futures down 0.7 pct, FTSE futures down 0.6 pct, German bund futures open 31 ticks higher at 158.05
07:02
BoE's Broadbent says does not think a couple of 25 basis point increases in a year would be "great shock" to economy - BBC radio

  • Doubling of interest rates from 0.5 percent would not historically represent a big rise

  • Says now more confident wage growth is improving in UK

06:58
Fed's George says three hikes this year and next would be reasonable unless economic outlook changes

  • With U.S. economy at or beyond full employment, arrival of fiscal stimulus makes more rate hikes important

06:57
RBA quarterly statement trims near-term unemployment forecast, others largely unchanged

  • Says underlying inflation to reach 2.25 pct by mid-2020

  • Unemployment forecasts cut 0.25 point to 5.25 pct out to mid-2019, stays at 5.25 pct to mid-2020

  • Gdp growth seen at 3.25 pct end 2018, 3.25 pct end 2019, 3 pct mid-2020

  • Underlying inflation seen at 1.75 pct end 2018, 2 pct end 2019, 2.25 pct june 2020

  • Household income growth slow, if that persists it would constrain consumption

  • Recent new enterprise agreements to put downward pressure on wage growth for couple of years

  • Appreciating AUD would dampen domestic growth and inflation

  • Outlook for global growth positive despite volatility in equity markets

06:53
Swiss unemployment rate stable at 3.0% in January

According to SECO surveys, at the end of January 2018, 149,161 unemployed people were enrolled in the Regional Employment Centers (RAV), 2,507 more than in the previous month. The unemployment rate remained at 3.3% in the month under review. Compared with the same month last year, unemployment fell by 15,305 (-9.3%). Youth unemployment in January 2018 Youth unemployment (15-24 year-olds) decreased by 135 (-0.8%) to 16,545. Compared to the same month of the previous year, this represents a decrease of 3,237 persons (-16.4%).

06:51
Chinese inflation lower than expected in January

China's consumer and producer price inflation slowed in January, data from the National Bureau of Statistics cited by rttnews.

Consumer prices climbed 1.5 percent year-on-year in January, the weakest in four months, after rising 1.8 percent in December. The rate came in line with expectations.

Food prices fell 0.5 percent on year versus 0.4 percent drop a month ago. Meanwhile, non-food prices rose 2 percent following December's 2.4 percent rise.

Meanwhile, monthly inflation doubled to 0.6 percent from 0.3 percent in December.

06:49
Enough U.S senators back move to advance bill funding government and increasing spending @livesquawk
06:45
Switzerland: Unemployment Rate (non s.a.), January 3.3% (forecast 3.4%)
06:42
Global Stocks

European stocks dropped on Thursday, taking their cues from a selloff on Wall Street as well as a plunge in oil prices that weighed on shares of the region's major energy companies.

The S&P 500 and the Dow extended their decline to close in correction territory Thursday after stocks went into a free fall late in the session on concerns about mounting volatility and worries about inflation and rising bond yields.

Asian shares took a tumble on Friday, taking cues from U.S. indexes which extended sharp losses in the last session. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 2.51 percent, with losses seen in most sectors. Automakers, financials, manufacturers and technology stocks traded firmly in negative territory.

04:32
Japan: Tertiary Industry Index , December -0.2% (forecast 0.2%)
01:30
China: PPI y/y, January 4.3% (forecast 4.4%)
01:30
China: CPI y/y, January 1.5% (forecast 1.5%)
00:30
Australia: Home Loans , December -2.3% (forecast -1.1%)

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