CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 06-09-2018

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 4.3 million barrels from the previous week. At 401.5 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at the five year average for this time of year.

Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 1.8 million barrels last week and are about 7% above the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline and blending components inventories both increased last week.

Distillate fuel inventories increased by 3.1 million barrels last week and are about 6% below the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 2.0 million barrels last week and are about 12% below the five year average for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased last week by 3.6 million barrels last week.

New orders for manufactured durable goods in July decreased $4.3 billion or 1.7 percent to $246.9 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down three of the last four months, followed a 0.7 percent June increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.2 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 1.0 percent. Transportation equipment, also down three of the last four months, drove the decrease, $4.6 billion or 5.3 percent to $82.8 billion.

What respondents are saying:

"Tariff-related cost increases are beginning to accelerate, whether tariffs have been put into effect or not." (Construction)

"Our business continues to increase, perhaps linked to the general economy and aging baby boomers." (Health Care & Social Assistance)

"Government tariffs are negatively impacting production and recycling sales. Pulp costs have gone up, and that has directly impacted paper for our newspaper production and copy paper. A 10-percent tariff has been placed on aluminum, [which] is used to make production plates. Those used plates are put on the recycling market, which China has put a tariff on. These dynamics have a significant impact on newspaper margins." (Information)

"Business for August is surprisingly higher for our company compared to last month and YOY [year over year]. Based on current trends on customer quote requests and conversions to orders, we are trending for this month to be the best August in the history of our company." (Management of Companies & Support Services)

The decrease was mainly attributable to lower construction intentions in British Columbia.

The value of permits for residential buildings edged down 0.3% to $5.3 billion in July. The decline was mainly the result of lower construction intentions for multi-family dwellings, down 1.1% to $2.9 billion. The decrease in British Columbia (-$185 million) offset gains in seven provinces.

The value of building permits in the single-family component was up 0.6% to $2.4 billion. Four provinces registered increases, led by Ontario and Manitoba.

In July, municipalities approved the construction of 19,824 new dwellings (+1.2%), consisting of 14,660 multi-family units (+3.7%) and 5,164 single units (-5.2%).

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 2.9 percent during the second quarter of 2018, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output increased 5.0 percent and hours worked increased 2.0 percent. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates.)
From the second quarter of 2017 to the second quarter of 2018, productivity increased 1.3 percent, reflecting a 3.5-percent increase in output and a 2.2-percent increase in hours worked.

In the week ending September 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 203,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 213,000. This is the lowest level for initial claims since December 6, 1969 when it was 202,000. The 4-week moving average was 209,500, a decrease of 2,750 from the previous week's unrevised average of 212,250. This is the lowest level for this average since December 6, 1969 when it was 204,500.

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

Chevron (CVX) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill

Private sector employment increased by 163,000 jobs according to the August ADP National Employment Report.

"Although we saw a small slowdown in job growth the market remains incredibly dynamic," said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. "Midsized businesses continue to be the engine of growth, adding nearly 70 percent of all jobs this month, and remain resiliant in the current economic climate." Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics, said, "The job market is hot. Employers are aggressively competing to hold onto their existing workers and to find new ones. Small businesses are struggling the most in this competition, as they increasingly can't fill open positions."

Economic activity in Sweden is strong and inflation is close to the target of 2 per cent. Rapidly rising energy prices have helped to push up inflation. If energy prices are disregarded, inflationary pressures are still moderate. As it is important for economic activity to continue to be strong and have an impact on price growth, monetary policy needs to remain expansionary.

The Executive Board has therefore decided to hold the repo rate unchanged at −0.50 per cent. If the economy develops as expected, there will soon be scope to slowly reduce the support from monetary policy. The forecast for the repo rate indicates that it will also be held unchanged at the monetary policy meeting in October and then raised by 0.25 percentage points either in December or February.

• Is Evaluating a Multibillion-Dollar Investment in Guangdong Province

• Project Would Help Meet Expected Chemical Demand Growth in China

• Project Is Part of Company's Plans to Grow Manufacturing Capacity in the U.S. and APAC

In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $1,425m in July 2018, an increase of $17m on the surplus in June 2018.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $1,551m in July 2018, a decrease of $386m on the surplus in June 2018.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits fell $362m (1%) to $36,070m. Non-monetary gold fell $189m (10%), non-rural goods fell $138m (1%) and rural goods fell $76m (2%). Net exports of goods under merchanting rose $7m. Services credits rose $34m.

Switzerland's GDP grew by 0.7% in the 2nd quarter of 2018, after 1.0% (revised) in the previous quarter, marking over a year of rapid economic expansion. Similarly strong growth rates over several quarters were last reached in 2014. Thus, the Swiss economy grows again at a faster pace than the Euro area, despite somewhat weakening momentum in the 2nd quarter.

Based on provisional data, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reports that price-adjusted new orders in manufacturing had decreased in July 2018 a seasonally and calendar adjusted 0.9% on the previous month. For June 2018, revision of the preliminary outcome resulted in a decrease of 3.9% compared with May 2018 (primary -4.0%). Price-adjusted new orders without major orders in manufacturing had decreased in July 2018 a seasonally and calendar adjusted 2.0% on the previous month.

Domestic orders increased by 2.4% and foreign orders decreased by 3.4% in July 2018 on the previous month. New orders from the euro area were down 2.7%, new orders from other countries decreased 4.0% compared to June 2018.

In July 2018 the manufacturers of intermediate goods saw new orders rise by 1.5% compared with June 2018. The manufacturers of capital goods showed decreases of 2.7% on the previous month. For consumer goods, a decrease in new orders of 0.5% was recorded.