CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 05-12-2018

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05.12.2018
23:30
Schedule for today, Thursday, December 6, 2018
Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
00:30 Australia Retail Sales, M/M October 0.2% 0.2%
00:30 Australia Trade Balance October 3.017 3.2
01:15 U.S. FOMC Member Quarles Speaks    
07:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) October 0.3% -0.4%
09:05 Australia RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks    
13:15 U.S. ADP Employment Report November 227 195
13:30 U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims November 1710 1700
13:30 U.S. Nonfarm Productivity, q/q Quarter III 2.9% 2.3%
13:30 U.S. Unit Labor Costs, q/q Quarter III -1% 1.1%
13:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims December 234 225
13:30 U.S. International Trade, bln October -54 -54.9
13:30 Canada Trade balance, billions October -0.42 -0.7
13:50 Canada BOC Gov Stephen Poloz Speaks    
14:45 U.S. Services PMI November 54.8 54.4
15:00 U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing November 60.3 59.2
15:00 Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index November 61.8 59.7
15:00 U.S. Factory Orders October 0.7% -2.0%
16:00 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories November 3.577 -0.942
17:15 U.S. FOMC Member Bostic Speaks    
22:30 Australia AiG Performance of Construction Index November 46.4  
23:30 Japan Household spending Y/Y October -1.6% 1.4%
23:30 U.S. FOMC Member Williams Speaks    
23:45 U.S. Fed Chair Powell Speaks    
20:50
Schedule for tomorrow, Thursday, December 6, 2018
Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
00:30 Australia Retail Sales, M/M October 0.2% 0.2%
00:30 Australia Trade Balance October 3.017 3.2
01:15 U.S. FOMC Member Quarles Speaks    
07:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) October 0.3% -0.4%
09:05 Australia RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks    
13:15 U.S. ADP Employment Report November 227 195
13:30 U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims November 1710 1700
13:30 U.S. Nonfarm Productivity, q/q Quarter III 2.9% 2.3%
13:30 U.S. Unit Labor Costs, q/q Quarter III -1% 1.1%
13:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims December 234 225
13:30 U.S. International Trade, bln October -54 -54.9
13:30 Canada Trade balance, billions October -0.42 -0.7
13:50 Canada BOC Gov Stephen Poloz Speaks    
14:45 U.S. Services PMI November 54.8 54.4
15:00 U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing November 60.3 59.2
15:00 Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index November 61.8 59.7
15:00 U.S. Factory Orders October 0.7% -2.0%
16:00 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories November 3.577 -0.942
17:15 U.S. FOMC Member Bostic Speaks    
22:30 Australia AiG Performance of Construction Index November 46.4  
23:30 Japan Household spending Y/Y October -1.6% 1.4%
23:30 U.S. FOMC Member Williams Speaks    
23:45 U.S. Fed Chair Powell Speaks    
17:01
European stocks closed: FTSE 100 -100.92 6921.84 -1.44% DAX -135.08 11200.24 -1.19% CAC 40 -68.29 4944.37 -1.36%
15:03
The Bank of Canada maintained its target for the overnight rate at 1.75%

“The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 1 ¾ per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 2 per cent and the deposit rate is 1 ½ per cent.

The global economic expansion is moderating largely as expected, but signs are emerging that trade conflicts are weighing more heavily on global demand. Recent encouraging developments at the G20 meetings are a reminder that there are upside as well as downside risks around trade policy. Growth in major advanced economies has slowed, although activity in the United States remains above potential.

Oil prices have fallen sharply since the October Monetary Policy Report (MPR), reflecting a combination of geopolitical developments, uncertainty about global growth prospects, and expansion of U.S. shale oil production. Benchmarks for western Canadian oil – both heavy and, more recently, light – have been pulled down even further by transportation constraints and a buildup of inventories. In light of these developments and associated cutbacks in production, activity in Canada’s energy sector will likely be materially weaker than expected.

The Canadian economy as a whole grew in line with the Bank’s projection in the third quarter, although data suggest less momentum going into the fourth quarter. Business investment fell in the third quarter, in large part due to heightened trade uncertainty during the summer. Business investment outside the energy sector is expected to strengthen with the signing of the USMCA, new federal government tax measures, and ongoing capacity constraints. Along with strong foreign demand, this increase in productive capacity should support continued growth in exports”.


15:00
Canada: Bank of Canada Rate, 1.75% (forecast 1.75%)
14:58
Hopefully OPEC will be keeping oil flows as is, not restricted. The World does not want to see, or need, higher oil prices! @realDonaldTrump
12:28
ECB Policymakers Debating Ideas For Gradual Stimulus Withdrawal In 2019 - Reuters sources

  • Some Policymakers Favour Hiking Only Deposit Rate At First

12:27
Oman Oil Min: OPEC+ Must Discuss Exceptions for Some Members on Oil Production Cut

  • Libya, Nigeria, Iran, Venezuela Need to Be Treated Differently on Production Cut

10:55
The volume of retail trade increased by 0.3% in the euro area (EA19) and by 0.1% in the EU28

In October 2018 compared with September 2018, the seasonally adjusted volume of retail trade increased by 0.3% in the euro area (EA19) and by 0.1% in the EU28, according to estimates from Eurostat, In September the retail trade volume decreased by 0.5% in the euro area and by 0.3% in the EU28. In October 2018 compared with October 2017, the calendar adjusted retail sales index increased by 1.7% in the euro area and by 2.1% in the EU28.

Among Member States for which data are available, the largest increases in the total retail trade volume were registered in Slovenia (+7.9%), Portugal (+2.3%) and Austria (+1.6%). The highest decreases were observed in Finland (-2.0%), Denmark and Sweden (both -1.2%).

10:00
Eurozone: Retail Sales (YoY), October 1.7% (forecast 2.1%)
10:00
Eurozone: Retail Sales (MoM), October 0.3% (forecast 0.2%)
09:53
UK service sector companies experienced another difficult month in November

UK service sector companies experienced another difficult month in November, with both business activity and incoming new work expanding at the weakest rates for almost two-and-a-half years.

The slowdown in business activity growth was highlighted by a fall in the headline seasonally adjusted IHS Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI Business Activity Index to 50.4 in November. This was down from 52.2 in October and the lowest reading since July 2016. The latest figure was only slightly above the 50.0 no-change value and therefore pointed to a marginal overall expansion of service sector output.

09:32
United Kingdom: Purchasing Manager Index Services, November 50.4 (forecast 52.5)
09:10
Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index registered its lowest level since September 2016

After accounting for seasonal factors, November’s final IHS Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index registered its lowest level since September 2016. Posting 52.7 in November, the index was down from October’s 53.1 though slightly higher than the earlier flash estimate of 52.4.

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said: “The final eurozone PMI for November came in higher than the flash reading but still only points to modest GDP growth of approximately 0.3% in the fourth quarter, suggesting the region remains stuck in a soft-patch. “Output and order books are growing at the slowest rates for over two years as a manufacturing-led slowdown showed further signs of spreading to the service sector. The survey responses highlighted intensifying headwinds of Brexit and trade war worries, a struggling autos sector and rising uncertainty regarding the economic and political outlook”.  

09:07
Germany Services PMI Business Activity Index registered 53.3 in November, unchanged from the earlier 'flash' estimate but down from 54.7 in October

The headline seasonally adjusted final IHS Markit Germany Services PMI Business Activity Index registered 53.3 in November, unchanged from the earlier 'flash' estimate but down from 54.7 in October. Despite having slipped to a six-month low, the index remained well above the 50.0 nochange mark and signalled a solid rate of growth that was in line with the average over the series history (since 1997).

Commenting on the PMI data, Phil Smith, Principal Economist at IHS Markit said: "It was a solid growth performance for the service sector in November but, alongside the slowdown in manufacturing, the softer pace of expansion brought the Composite Output PMI down to a near four-year low. “GDP is widely expected to recover in the fourth quarter following technical distortions in Q3, though the further slippage of the PMI indicators does raise question marks over the strength of any rebound and how much momentum the economy will carry into the New Year”.

09:00
Eurozone: Services PMI, November 53 (forecast 53.1)
08:55
Germany: Services PMI, November 53.3 (forecast 53.3)
08:53
French services PMI rose more than expected in November

The headline seasonally adjusted IHS Markit France Services Business Activity Index - which is based on a single question asking respondents to report on their actual change in business activity at their companies compared to one month ago - fell to 55.1 in November, down from 55.3 in October. This signalled another strong increase in business activity, albeit at a softer pace compared to October. Where panellists reported higher activity, some mentioned the positive effect of promotional activities and new contract wins.

08:52
Activity in Italy's service sector expanded marginally in November

The headline index from the report, the seasonally adjusted Business Activity Index registered 50.3 in November, up from October's reading of 49.2 and indicated a marginal increase in business activity in Italy's service sector. This followed a first reduction in almost two-and-a-half years during the previous month.

Commenting on the PMI data, Amritpal Virdee, Economist at IHS Markit said: “Activity in Italy's service sector expanded marginally in November, driven by persistent new order growth and lower than expected declines in new business from abroad. With a fall in manufacturing output recorded, overall Italian private sector growth has weakened considerably from the start of the year and November's data is consistent with a negative out-turn for GDP in Q4 2018."

08:50
France: Services PMI, November 55.1 (forecast 55)
08:44
FTSE -83.80 6938.96 -1.19% DAX -142.75 11192.57 -1.26% CAC -65.77 4946.89 -1.31%
08:43
Spain's service sector continued to expand during November, with growth holding steady at a solid rate

Demand was reported to have strengthened, particularly from domestic clients, and firms responded positively to increasing workloads at their units by hiring additional workers.

The headline Business Activity Index remained comfortably above the 50.0 no-change mark during November. Recording a level of 54.0, the index was unchanged on October's fourmonth high, and extended the current period of continuous growth to over five years.

08:11
Options levels on wednesday, December 5, 2018 EURUSD GBPUSD

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1418 (2484)

$1.1388 (3111)

$1.1370 (997)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1326

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1283 (3563)

$1.1243 (4566)

$1.1197 (5770)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date December, 7 is 124773 contracts (according to data from December, 4) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1200 (5770);


GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2869 (1345)

$1.2831 (1789)

$1.2773 (816)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2712

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2674 (1348)

$1.2650 (3188)

$1.2618 (1869)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date December, 7 is 59478 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3500 (4702);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date December, 7 is 47211 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2500 (3269);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.79 versus 0.79 from the previous trading day according to data from December, 4

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

07:46
Futures: DAX -1.0% FTSE -1.0% CAC -0.9%

A negative start of trading in Europe is expected, following negative signals from Wall Street. Indices in the Asia-Pacific region are also traded in the red zone.

07:32
China Commerce Ministry: US China Trade Meeting Successful, Confident It Can Be Implemented @LiveSquawk
07:30
Australian GDP rose less than expected in Q3

GDP summary:

  • The Australian economy grew by 0.3% in seasonally adjusted chain volume terms in the September quarter.

  • Household final consumption expenditure increased 0.3% during the quarter contributing 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth.

  • Compensation of employees increased by 1.0%.

  • Net exports contributed 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth driven by a decline in imports.

  • The terms of trade rose 0.8%.



07:27
Fed's Williams: Timing of Future Fed Rates Rises Is Up for Debate

  • Gradual Rate Rises Over Next Year or So Still Likely

  • Fed Won't Provide as Much Forward Guidance Going Forward

  • Baseline for Outlook Still Sees Strong Growth

  • Will Go Into December FOMC 'With an Open Mind'

07:26
Fed's Williams: Economy Should Grow 3% This Year, 2.5% Next Year

  • Expects Further Job Gains, Jobless Rate To Fall To Under

  • Expects Inflation to Modestly Overshoot 2% Price Target

  • Sees Not Great Source Of Big Upward Inflation Pressure

  • Labor Market Is 'Strong And Improving'

07:22
The Caixin China Composite PMI data pointed to a stronger rise in total business activity across China in November - Markit

The Caixin China Composite PMI data (which covers both manufacturing and services) pointed to a stronger rise in total business activity across China in November. Notably, the Composite Output Index rose from a 28-month low of 50.5 in October to 51.9 in November, to signal a modest rate of expansion.

The stronger performance was supported by a rebound in activity across the service sector, as manufacturing production was stable for the second month in a row. Furthermore, the latest upturn in services activity was the most marked for five months, with the seasonally adjusted Caixin China General Services Business Activity Index climbing from October’s 13-month low of 50.8 to 53.8 in November. According to panellists, improved underlying demand conditions and greater client numbers contributed to higher activity levels. At the same time, relatively subdued demand across the manufacturing sector meant that factory output remained unchanged.

02:30
Commodities. Daily history for Tuesday, December 4, 2018
Raw materials Closed Change, %
Brent 61.38 -0.66
WTI 52.67 -0.98
Silver 14.5 0.97
Gold 1238.522 0.63
Palladium 1229.61 2.41
01:45
China: Markit/Caixin Services PMI, November 53.8 (forecast 50.7)
00:30
Japan: Nikkei Services PMI, November 52.3
00:30
Australia: Gross Domestic Product (YoY), Quarter III 2.8% (forecast 3.3%)
00:30
Australia: Gross Domestic Product (QoQ), Quarter III 0.3% (forecast 0.6%)
00:30
Stocks. Daily history for Tuesday, December 4, 2018
Index Change, points Closed Change, %
NIKKEI 225 -538.71 22036.05 -2.39
Hang Seng 78.4 27260.44 0.29
KOSPI -17.58 2114.35 -0.82
ASX 200 -58.1 5713.1 -1.01
FTSE 100 -39.65 7022.76 -0.56
DAX -130.14 11335.32 -1.14
Dow Jones -799.36 25027.07 -3.1
S&P 500 -90.31 2700.06 -3.24
NASDAQ Composite -283.08 7158.43 -3.8
00:15
Currencies. Daily history for Tuesday, December 4, 2018
Pare Closed Change, %
AUDUSD 0.73384 -0.26
EURJPY 127.908 -0.86
EURUSD 1.13412 -0.1
GBPJPY 143.399 -0.82
GBPUSD 1.27149 -0.06
NZDUSD 0.69277 0.03
USDCAD 1.32636 0.51
USDCHF 0.99742 -0.04
USDJPY 112.776 -0.76

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