Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
00:30 | Australia | Retail Sales, M/M | October | 0.2% | 0.2% |
00:30 | Australia | Trade Balance | October | 3.017 | 3.2 |
01:15 | U.S. | FOMC Member Quarles Speaks | |||
07:00 | Germany | Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) | October | 0.3% | -0.4% |
09:05 | Australia | RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks | |||
13:15 | U.S. | ADP Employment Report | November | 227 | 195 |
13:30 | U.S. | Continuing Jobless Claims | November | 1710 | 1700 |
13:30 | U.S. | Nonfarm Productivity, q/q | Quarter III | 2.9% | 2.3% |
13:30 | U.S. | Unit Labor Costs, q/q | Quarter III | -1% | 1.1% |
13:30 | U.S. | Initial Jobless Claims | December | 234 | 225 |
13:30 | U.S. | International Trade, bln | October | -54 | -54.9 |
13:30 | Canada | Trade balance, billions | October | -0.42 | -0.7 |
13:50 | Canada | BOC Gov Stephen Poloz Speaks | |||
14:45 | U.S. | Services PMI | November | 54.8 | 54.4 |
15:00 | U.S. | ISM Non-Manufacturing | November | 60.3 | 59.2 |
15:00 | Canada | Ivey Purchasing Managers Index | November | 61.8 | 59.7 |
15:00 | U.S. | Factory Orders | October | 0.7% | -2.0% |
16:00 | U.S. | Crude Oil Inventories | November | 3.577 | -0.942 |
17:15 | U.S. | FOMC Member Bostic Speaks | |||
22:30 | Australia | AiG Performance of Construction Index | November | 46.4 | |
23:30 | Japan | Household spending Y/Y | October | -1.6% | 1.4% |
23:30 | U.S. | FOMC Member Williams Speaks | |||
23:45 | U.S. | Fed Chair Powell Speaks |
Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
00:30 | Australia | Retail Sales, M/M | October | 0.2% | 0.2% |
00:30 | Australia | Trade Balance | October | 3.017 | 3.2 |
01:15 | U.S. | FOMC Member Quarles Speaks | |||
07:00 | Germany | Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) | October | 0.3% | -0.4% |
09:05 | Australia | RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks | |||
13:15 | U.S. | ADP Employment Report | November | 227 | 195 |
13:30 | U.S. | Continuing Jobless Claims | November | 1710 | 1700 |
13:30 | U.S. | Nonfarm Productivity, q/q | Quarter III | 2.9% | 2.3% |
13:30 | U.S. | Unit Labor Costs, q/q | Quarter III | -1% | 1.1% |
13:30 | U.S. | Initial Jobless Claims | December | 234 | 225 |
13:30 | U.S. | International Trade, bln | October | -54 | -54.9 |
13:30 | Canada | Trade balance, billions | October | -0.42 | -0.7 |
13:50 | Canada | BOC Gov Stephen Poloz Speaks | |||
14:45 | U.S. | Services PMI | November | 54.8 | 54.4 |
15:00 | U.S. | ISM Non-Manufacturing | November | 60.3 | 59.2 |
15:00 | Canada | Ivey Purchasing Managers Index | November | 61.8 | 59.7 |
15:00 | U.S. | Factory Orders | October | 0.7% | -2.0% |
16:00 | U.S. | Crude Oil Inventories | November | 3.577 | -0.942 |
17:15 | U.S. | FOMC Member Bostic Speaks | |||
22:30 | Australia | AiG Performance of Construction Index | November | 46.4 | |
23:30 | Japan | Household spending Y/Y | October | -1.6% | 1.4% |
23:30 | U.S. | FOMC Member Williams Speaks | |||
23:45 | U.S. | Fed Chair Powell Speaks |
“The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 1 ¾ per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 2 per cent and the deposit rate is 1 ½ per cent.
The global economic expansion is moderating largely as expected, but signs are emerging that trade conflicts are weighing more heavily on global demand. Recent encouraging developments at the G20 meetings are a reminder that there are upside as well as downside risks around trade policy. Growth in major advanced economies has slowed, although activity in the United States remains above potential.
Oil prices have fallen sharply since the October Monetary Policy Report (MPR), reflecting a combination of geopolitical developments, uncertainty about global growth prospects, and expansion of U.S. shale oil production. Benchmarks for western Canadian oil – both heavy and, more recently, light – have been pulled down even further by transportation constraints and a buildup of inventories. In light of these developments and associated cutbacks in production, activity in Canada’s energy sector will likely be materially weaker than expected.
The Canadian economy as a whole grew in line with the Bank’s projection in the third quarter, although data suggest less momentum going into the fourth quarter. Business investment fell in the third quarter, in large part due to heightened trade uncertainty during the summer. Business investment outside the energy sector is expected to strengthen with the signing of the USMCA, new federal government tax measures, and ongoing capacity constraints. Along with strong foreign demand, this increase in productive capacity should support continued growth in exports”.
Sees 'Very Strong Signals' From China Since Argentina Meeting
Some Policymakers Favour Hiking Only Deposit Rate At First
Libya, Nigeria, Iran, Venezuela Need to Be Treated Differently on Production Cut
In October 2018 compared with September 2018, the seasonally adjusted volume of retail trade increased by 0.3% in the euro area (EA19) and by 0.1% in the EU28, according to estimates from Eurostat, In September the retail trade volume decreased by 0.5% in the euro area and by 0.3% in the EU28. In October 2018 compared with October 2017, the calendar adjusted retail sales index increased by 1.7% in the euro area and by 2.1% in the EU28.
Among Member States for which data are available, the largest increases in the total retail trade volume were registered in Slovenia (+7.9%), Portugal (+2.3%) and Austria (+1.6%). The highest decreases were observed in Finland (-2.0%), Denmark and Sweden (both -1.2%).
UK service sector companies experienced another difficult month in November, with both business activity and incoming new work expanding at the weakest rates for almost two-and-a-half years.
The slowdown in business activity growth was highlighted by a fall in the headline seasonally adjusted IHS Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI Business Activity Index to 50.4 in November. This was down from 52.2 in October and the lowest reading since July 2016. The latest figure was only slightly above the 50.0 no-change value and therefore pointed to a marginal overall expansion of service sector output.
After accounting for seasonal factors, November’s final IHS Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index registered its lowest level since September 2016. Posting 52.7 in November, the index was down from October’s 53.1 though slightly higher than the earlier flash estimate of 52.4.
Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said: “The final eurozone PMI for November came in higher than the flash reading but still only points to modest GDP growth of approximately 0.3% in the fourth quarter, suggesting the region remains stuck in a soft-patch. “Output and order books are growing at the slowest rates for over two years as a manufacturing-led slowdown showed further signs of spreading to the service sector. The survey responses highlighted intensifying headwinds of Brexit and trade war worries, a struggling autos sector and rising uncertainty regarding the economic and political outlook”.
The headline seasonally adjusted final IHS Markit Germany Services PMI Business Activity Index registered 53.3 in November, unchanged from the earlier 'flash' estimate but down from 54.7 in October. Despite having slipped to a six-month low, the index remained well above the 50.0 nochange mark and signalled a solid rate of growth that was in line with the average over the series history (since 1997).
Commenting on the PMI data, Phil Smith, Principal Economist at IHS Markit said: "It was a solid growth performance for the service sector in November but, alongside the slowdown in manufacturing, the softer pace of expansion brought the Composite Output PMI down to a near four-year low. “GDP is widely expected to recover in the fourth quarter following technical distortions in Q3, though the further slippage of the PMI indicators does raise question marks over the strength of any rebound and how much momentum the economy will carry into the New Year”.
The headline seasonally adjusted IHS Markit France Services Business Activity Index - which is based on a single question asking respondents to report on their actual change in business activity at their companies compared to one month ago - fell to 55.1 in November, down from 55.3 in October. This signalled another strong increase in business activity, albeit at a softer pace compared to October. Where panellists reported higher activity, some mentioned the positive effect of promotional activities and new contract wins.
The headline index from the report, the seasonally adjusted Business Activity Index registered 50.3 in November, up from October's reading of 49.2 and indicated a marginal increase in business activity in Italy's service sector. This followed a first reduction in almost two-and-a-half years during the previous month.
Commenting on the PMI data, Amritpal Virdee, Economist at IHS Markit said: “Activity in Italy's service sector expanded marginally in November, driven by persistent new order growth and lower than expected declines in new business from abroad. With a fall in manufacturing output recorded, overall Italian private sector growth has weakened considerably from the start of the year and November's data is consistent with a negative out-turn for GDP in Q4 2018."
Demand was reported to have strengthened, particularly from domestic clients, and firms responded positively to increasing workloads at their units by hiring additional workers.
The headline Business Activity Index remained comfortably above the 50.0 no-change mark during November. Recording a level of 54.0, the index was unchanged on October's fourmonth high, and extended the current period of continuous growth to over five years.
EUR/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.1418 (2484)
$1.1388 (3111)
$1.1370 (997)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.1326
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.1283 (3563)
$1.1243 (4566)
$1.1197 (5770)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date December, 7 is 124773 contracts (according to data from December, 4) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1200 (5770);
GBP/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.2869 (1345)
$1.2831 (1789)
$1.2773 (816)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.2712
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.2674 (1348)
$1.2650 (3188)
$1.2618 (1869)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date December, 7 is 59478 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3500 (4702);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date December, 7 is 47211 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2500 (3269);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.79 versus 0.79 from the previous trading day according to data from December, 4
* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.
** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.
A negative start of trading in Europe is expected, following negative signals from Wall Street. Indices in the Asia-Pacific region are also traded in the red zone.
The legal advice must now be published. The embattled PM is facing a parliamentary vote on Dec. 11 on the agreement she reached with the EU.
GDP summary:
The Australian economy grew by 0.3% in seasonally adjusted chain volume terms in the September quarter.
Household final consumption expenditure increased 0.3% during the quarter contributing 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth.
Compensation of employees increased by 1.0%.
Net exports contributed 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth driven by a decline in imports.
The terms of trade rose 0.8%.
Gradual Rate Rises Over Next Year or So Still Likely
Fed Won't Provide as Much Forward Guidance Going Forward
Baseline for Outlook Still Sees Strong Growth
Will Go Into December FOMC 'With an Open Mind'
Expects Further Job Gains, Jobless Rate To Fall To Under
Expects Inflation to Modestly Overshoot 2% Price Target
Sees Not Great Source Of Big Upward Inflation Pressure
Labor Market Is 'Strong And Improving'
The Caixin China Composite PMI data (which covers both manufacturing and services) pointed to a stronger rise in total business activity across China in November. Notably, the Composite Output Index rose from a 28-month low of 50.5 in October to 51.9 in November, to signal a modest rate of expansion.
The stronger performance was supported by a rebound in activity across the service sector, as manufacturing production was stable for the second month in a row. Furthermore, the latest upturn in services activity was the most marked for five months, with the seasonally adjusted Caixin China General Services Business Activity Index climbing from October’s 13-month low of 50.8 to 53.8 in November. According to panellists, improved underlying demand conditions and greater client numbers contributed to higher activity levels. At the same time, relatively subdued demand across the manufacturing sector meant that factory output remained unchanged.
Raw materials | Closed | Change, % |
---|---|---|
Brent | 61.38 | -0.66 |
WTI | 52.67 | -0.98 |
Silver | 14.5 | 0.97 |
Gold | 1238.522 | 0.63 |
Palladium | 1229.61 | 2.41 |
Index | Change, points | Closed | Change, % |
---|---|---|---|
NIKKEI 225 | -538.71 | 22036.05 | -2.39 |
Hang Seng | 78.4 | 27260.44 | 0.29 |
KOSPI | -17.58 | 2114.35 | -0.82 |
ASX 200 | -58.1 | 5713.1 | -1.01 |
FTSE 100 | -39.65 | 7022.76 | -0.56 |
DAX | -130.14 | 11335.32 | -1.14 |
Dow Jones | -799.36 | 25027.07 | -3.1 |
S&P 500 | -90.31 | 2700.06 | -3.24 |
NASDAQ Composite | -283.08 | 7158.43 | -3.8 |
Pare | Closed | Change, % |
---|---|---|
AUDUSD | 0.73384 | -0.26 |
EURJPY | 127.908 | -0.86 |
EURUSD | 1.13412 | -0.1 |
GBPJPY | 143.399 | -0.82 |
GBPUSD | 1.27149 | -0.06 |
NZDUSD | 0.69277 | 0.03 |
USDCAD | 1.32636 | 0.51 |
USDCHF | 0.99742 | -0.04 |
USDJPY | 112.776 | -0.76 |
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