CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 05-08-2011

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05.08.2011
19:48
Dow 11,400 +17 +0.15%, Nasdaq 2,536 -21 -0.81%, S&P 1,200 -0 -0.01%

All S&P industry groups plummeted down or practically not grew. Conglomerats is the only rebounded sector (+0.1%). Basic Materials was hit the hardest (-3.3%) amid decline in commodity prices.

19:35
GBP/USD rebounded from support of $1.6330 (38.2% Fibo $1.6230/ $1.6400)
19:14
USD/JPY is still holds at Y78.40/50
19:11
Oil 86.51 -0.12 -0.14%, Gold 1,661 +2 +0.12%
18:47
EUR/USD reached $1.4298, and then retreated
18:26
EUR/USD is testing resistance at $1.4290
18:01
US focus: Dollar falls, demand for refuge sheds

The dollar declines versus a majority of its most-traded counterparts as U.S. employers added more jobs than forecast in July and the unemployment rate fell, damping demand for refuge.
Concern about slowdown in the largest world’s economy continues put pressure on the currency. Today US Department of Labor reported about decline in unemployment rate to 9.1% in July from June figure of 9.2%. Analysts had expected that the jobless rate would remain unchanged. Another report showed the nonfarm payrolls added 117K in July, beating expectations of 70 K and up from a rise of 18 K in June.
The euro rises against the US dollar fter reports that the ECB is willing to buy Italian and Portugal bonds if Italy advances reforms.
Switzerland’s franc weakens versus the US dollar as today the Swiss National Bank said it won’t exclude any measures to curb the currency’s advance.
A strongly risk-averse mood supported the Swiss franc, although comments by Switzerland's central bank chief saying he will not accept a further appreciation in the Swiss franc without acting, sapped some of its momentum.
The yen stabilized against the dollar. Earlier the currency erased the effect of Japan's yen-selling intervention nearly by half.
The Canadian currency gains after today’s fall to the lowest level over 5 weeks amid declining crude oil prices, Canada’s biggest export. Today Canada’s statistics showed decline unemployment rate to 7.4% from 7.2%, but employment data also fell more than analysts expected.

17:43
Dow 11,490 +106 +0.93% Nasdaq 2,547 -10 -0.37% S&P 500 1,203 +3 +0.22%

The markets continue rising amid speculations that the ECB is willing to buy Italian and Portugal bonds if Italy advances reforms.

17:36
USD/CAD continue declining from 5-week high of C0.9850
16:54
Dow 11,539 +155 +1.36%, Nasdaq 2,556 -0 -0.01%, S&P 500 1,208 +8 +0.66%

The stock exchanges bounded back after reports that the ECB is willing to buy Italian and Portugal bonds if Italy advances reforms.
16:23
EUR/USD hit $1.4245
The pair rose after reports the ECB is willing to buy Italian and Portugal bonds if Italy advances reforms. Above growth is possible to $1.4290/00 area (50.0% FIBO $1.4540-$1.4050).
16:21
Oil prices resume falling

Oil tumble amid concern that better-than-expected U.S. jobless numbers for July won’t be enough to boost fuel demand.

Currently September WTI Crude oil is at $84.74 per barrel (-2.18%).

16:05
European stocks close: FTSE -146 (-2.71%) 5,247, CAC -42 (-1.26%) 3,279, DAX -178 (-2.78%) 6,236
15:43
US: Goldman lowered its 2011-12 GDP estimates and said odds are 1/3 for another US recession
15:33
US: Senate approves FAA funding.

U.S. Senate and leaders of the House of Representatives have reached an agreement to fully fund the Federal Aviation Administration. A 12-day standoff on this issue that furloughed 4,000 FAA workers and affected some 70,000 jobs related to airport construction across the country.
Earlier a 12-day standoff furloughed 4,000 FAA workers and affected some 70,000 jobs related to airport construction across the country.

14:48
US: Michael Woolfolk about markets’ fall

Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist for The Bank of New York Mellon:

 

  • It is driven more by the psychology of the market than by extended positions.
  • The good news is that, consequently, it argues favorably for a rebound post Labor Day.

 

14:34
Dow 11,407.37 +23.69 +0.21%, Nasdaq 2,547 -9.72 -0.38%, S&P 1,204.40 +4.33 +0.36%
14:21
Goldman is saying Jul employment report was good but not great and noting the household survey was still soft.
14:01
CANADA: Jul Ivey purchasing mgrs index 45.4
13:40
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

EUR/USD: $1.4100, $1.4200
USD/JPY: Y77.50, Y78.00, Y78.15, Y79.50, Y80.00, Y80.45, Y80.65, Y80.85
GBP/USD: $1.6100, $1.6500
GBP/JPY: Y131.60
AUD/USD: $1.0200, $1.0400, $1.0550, $1.0560, $1.0600
USD/CAD: C$0.9675

13:28
Before the bell: US Stock futures rose

 

U.S. stock-index futures rose (S&P futures +9.9, Nasdaq +13.5. ), signaling the market may rebound from its worst drop in more than two years, as stronger-than-forecast growth in jobs eased concern the economy is sliding into a recession.
Non-farm payrolls increased in July by 117,000, which is greater than the increase of 84,000 that had been expected, on average, among economists. What's more, prior month payrolls were revised upward to reflect an increase of 46,000, instead of the 18,000 increase that had been initially reported. Private payrolls spiked by 154,000, which exceeds the 100,000 increase that had been widely anticipated. The better-than-expected payroll increases helped the headline unemployment rate come in at 9.1%, instead of the 9.2% that had been broadly forecasted by economists.
Company news: AIG (AIG) swung to a Q2 net profit of $1.84B from a loss of $2.66B a year earlier, when it was saddled with charges tied to discontinued operations. 
12:44
FTSE 5,295 -98.60 -1.83%, CAC 3,323 +2.48 +0.07%, DAX 6,311 -103.36 -1.61%
12:32
US DATA: July payrolls +117k, Unemploy rate fell 0.1pt to 9.1%
12:30
Europen session: Switzerland’s franc weakened from a record

Data:

08:30 UK PPI (Output) (July) unadjusted 0.2%
08:30 UK PPI (Output) (July) unadjusted Y/Y 5.9%
08:30 UK PPI Output ex FDT (July) adjusted 0.3%
08:30 UK PPI Output ex FDT (July) unadjusted Y/Y 3.3%
08:30 UK PPI (Input) (July) adjusted 0.6%
08:30 UK PPI (Input) (July) unadjusted Y/Y 18.5%
10:00 Germany Industrial production (June) seasonally adjusted -1.1%
10:00 Germany Industrial production (June) not seasonally adjusted, workday adjusted Y/Y 6.7%

The dollar fell, trimming weekly gains against the euro and yen, before data that’s forecast to support the case for low borrowing costs and show U.S. employers failed to create enough jobs to reduce the jobless rate.
Switzerland’s franc weakened from a record against the euro after the Swiss National Bank said it won’t exclude any measures to curb the currency’s advance. 
The yen strengthened against the dollar a day after Japan moved to weaken it, trimming the currency’s biggest weekly drop in four months, as tumbling stocks stoked demand for safer assets. U.S. payrolls probably climbed by 85,000 in July after an 18,000 increase in June that was the smallest this year, a survey showed.

EUR/USD: the pair shown high in $1.4170 area.
GBP/USD: the pair shown high in  $1.6300.
USD/JPY: the pair decreased in  Y78.50 area.

The main event of the day is scheduled to release at 12:30 GMT - US non-farm Payrolls.

11:44
Orders:

Offers $1.4250/60, $1.4210, $1.4190/200, $1.4180
Bids $1.4050, $1.4015, $1.4000, $1.3985/80, $1.3955/50

11:21
EU, Rehn: "Markets have not reacted as we hoped"
  • Widening spreads not justified
  • Political will to defend euro should not be doubted

11:01
CANADA: Jul employment 7.1k (Jun +28.4k); Jul unemployment 7.2%
10:50
EUR/USD rose

Picks up fresh demand interest, the rate recovering off  post German IP data lows of $1.4125 to currently trade around $1.4170.  Rate saw highs earlier in the session at $1.4177 with offers seen placed toward $1.4180, with stops noted on a break of $1.4185. Further offers seen close behind from above $1.4190 through to $1.4200, more on approach to $1.4210 with more stops above.


10:01
Germany DATA: June real sa industrial output -1.1% m/m +6.7% y/y
09:49
FTSE 5,282 -110.66 -2.05%, СAC 3,278 -42.07 -1.27%, DAX 6,250 -164.98 -2.57%
09:16
Asian session: Swiss franc elevated on economy fear, yen on BOJ watch

Data released:
05:00     Japan     Leading indicators composite index (June) preliminary    103.2    103.4    99.6
05:00     Japan     Coincident indicators composite index (June) preliminary    108.6    -    106.3

The Swiss franc hit a fresh record high against the euro on Friday.
A strongly risk-averse mood supported the Swiss franc, although comments by Switzerland's central bank chief saying he will not accept a further appreciation in the Swiss franc without acting, sapped some of its momentum.
The yen edged higher and pulled away from a three-week low hit the previous day after Japan's yen-selling intervention, but concerns that Japan could intervene again limited the currency's gains.
Even if Japan were to intervene again, market players said it could be hard for the dollar to rise above the Y80 to Y82 area, where dollar-selling interest from Japanese exporters is likely to be strong.


EUR/USD rose from $1.4070 to $1.4180.
GBP/USD recovered from $1.6244 to $1.6305/10.
USD/JPY set stable around Y78.30/40 after it earlier spiked to Y79.40.

Germany's Industrial Production comes at 10:00 GMT.
But the main event of the day is scheduled to release at 12:30 GMT - US non-farm Payrolls.

09:01
ITALY: Preliminary 2Q11 GDP +0.3% q/q, +0.8% y/y
08:30
United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output n.s.a (Jul) 0.2% m/m and 5.9% y/y
08:05
UK Halifax house price index +0.3% m/m, -2.3% y/y in Jul
07:43
EU STOCKS recover from lows: the FTSE now 2.1% lower, the DAX down 1.3%
07:14
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut,

EUR/USD: $1.4100, $1.4200
USD/JPY: Y77.50, Y78.00, Y78.15, Y79.50, Y80.00, Y80.45, Y80.65, Y80.85
GBP/USD: $1.6100, $1.6500
GBP/JPY: Y131.60
AUD/USD: $1.0200, $1.0400, $1.0550, $1.0560, $1.0600
USD/CAD: C$0.9675

07:02
Board of orders:

EUR/USD
Offers: $1.4140/50, $1.4190/$1.4200
Bids: $1.4055/50

GBP/USD
Offers: $1.6280
Bids$1.6230/20, $1.6200
 
AUD/USD
Offers: $1.0500
Bids$1.0380

USD/CAD:
Offers: C$0.9910
Bids: C$0.9750-60

06:31
FOREX: Thursday's review

Data released:
Japan     BoJ meeting announcement    0.00-0.10%    0.00-0.10%    0.00-0.10%
10:00     Germany     Manufacturing orders (June) seasonally adjusted    1.8%    -0.4%    1.5 (1.8)%
10:00     Germany     Manufacturing orders (June) not seasonally adjusted, workday adjusted Y/Y    9.5%    6.7%    11.7 (12.2)%
11:00     UK     BoE meeting announcement    0.50%    0.50%    0.50%
11:45     EU(17)     ECB meeting announcement    1.50%    1.50%    1.50%
12:30     EU(17)     ECB press conference               
12:30     USA     Jobless claims (week to 30.07)    400K    410K    401 (398)K
20:30     USA     M2 money supply (25.07), bln    +22.0    -    +34.1

 

US dollar declined versus “save haven” currencies frank and yen. The dollar is still under from pressure from ongoing concerns about slowdown in the U.S. and EU economies. Another pressure are speculations that the Fed may would provide more stimulus if needed.
The franc bounced back against the dollar after a day before the currency fell following the Swiss National Bank cut interest rates from 0.25% to near zero.

The yen weakened after Japan sold its currency in the foreign- exchange market for the first time since March to stem gains that threaten the nation’s economic recovery. Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said intervention was one-side.
The Bank of Japan expanded its asset-purchase fund to 15 trillion yen ($189 billion) from 10 trillion yen, according to a statement. Policy makers also kept the benchmark interest rate near zero. They ended their meeting a day earlier than scheduled on request of the government.

The euro shed versus the dollar after ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet acknowledged a “particularly high” level of uncertainty and said inflation expectations “must remain firmly anchored.”

He said the ECB will offer banks additional cash as the region’s debt crisis spreads increasing pressure on policy makers to resume bond purchases.
The Canadian currency fell to the lowest level over 5 weeks amid declining crude oil prices, Canada’s biggest export.



EUR/USD fell from $1.4370 to $1.4085, triggering bids and stops.
GBP/USD initially fell from $1.6440 to $1.6340. Rate recovered to $1.6390, but it was short-lived before pound fell to a new lows around $1.6250.
USD/JPY rocketed sharply from Y70.05 to Y80.00. Later rate broke above to Y80.20 before corrected back to Y78.60.

On Friday UK PPI report will be released at 08:30 GMT, followed by Germany's Industrial Production at 10:00 GMT.
But the main event of the day is scheduled to release at 12:30 GMT - US non-farm Payrolls.

06:01
JAPAN STOCKS closed with losses Friday: the Nikkei ended lower by 359.3 points to 9299.88 and the TOPIX was down 25.20 points at 801.16.
05:49
Techs on USD/JPY:

Resistance 3: Y81.50     
Resistance 2: Y80.20     
Resistance 1: Y79.40     
Current price: Y78.47
Support 1: Y78.50  
Support 2:Y77.30   
Support 3:Y76.80   

Comments: rate tested stron support at Y78.50/40 (50% of yesterday's rise) in Asia after it earlier rose to Y79.40 (resistance) and sharply retreated. Break under Y78.50 opens the way to Y77.30. Meanwhile, above Y79.40 upside target comes at Y80.20 and then - on Y81.50 (Jul 08 high).

05:42
STOCKS: Thursday's review

Majors close:
Nikkei  +22.04  (0.23%)  9,659.18 
Topix  0.39  (-0.05%)  826.36
DAX  -225.83  (-3.40%)  6,414.76
CAC  -134.59  (-3.90%)  3,320.35
FTSE-100  -191.37  (-3.43%)  5,393.14
Dow  Dow  -512.76  (-4.31%)  11,383.70
Nasdaq  -60.27  (-4.78%)  1,200.07
S&P500  -136.68  (-5.08%)  2,556.39
10-Years    2.40%  -0.217
Oil    -0.19  (-0.22%)  86.44
Gold  -8.60  (-0.52%)  1,650.40


On Thursday Asian stock markets closed mixed.
The Japan’ Nikkei was supported by a sharp drop of the yen as Japan sold its currency in the foreign-exchange market for the first time since March to stem gains that threaten the nation’s economic recovery.
The Bank of Japan expanded its asset-purchase fund to 15 trillion yen ($189 billion) from 10 trillion yen, according to a statement. Policy makers also kept the benchmark interest rate near zero.
Hitachi and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries were among the biggest gainers on reports the groups may merge some of their businesses to create one of the world’s largest infrastructure companies. Shares of Hitachi rose by 1.7% and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries climbed by 3.4%.
Konami , the video games software maker, was the biggest climber on the Nikkei, up 5.1% after reporting net income more than tripled in the second quarter, beating expectations.
Most of other Asian stocks declined under pressure from ongoing concerns over the global economic outlook.
Banking sector was one of the worst performers in the Australian share market: Australia New Zealand Banking Group. shed 1.3%, National Australia Bank Ltd. lost 2.3%, Rio Tinto Ltd. losing 0.2%, Leighton Holdings Ltd. went down 0.3%.
The Australia’ S&P/ASX 200 index sang 1.30%

European stock equities lost between 3% and 4%.
On Thursday European markets shed after ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet acknowledged a “particularly high” level of uncertainty said inflation expectations “must remain firmly anchored.” He said the ECB will offer banks additional cash as the region’s debt crisis spreads increasing pressure on policy makers to resume bond purchases.
After the statement of Trichet Italian 10-year bond spread over German 10-year Bunds widens to a new record of 391 bps. Spain, French and Belgium 10-year bond also spread over German Bunds to record wides.
Speculations that the Fed consider another round of stimulus didn’t support the markets.
Europe’s leading banks suffered their worst day since Greece was first bailed out as the European Central Bank’s efforts to extend liquidity failed to mollify fearful investors.
However, the heavy falls went wider than that. Deutsche Bank was down more than 4% while in London HSBC fell 2.% and Barclays ended 7.8% lower.
Other banking stocks followed Lloyds lower, with Royal Bank of Scotland Group dropping 6.1% and Barclays PLC shedding nearly 8%.
Miners were targeted by sellers on Thursday amid global growth concerns. Shares of Xstrata PLC plummeted 8.5% and Anglo American PLC dropped 6.1%.

US stocks plummeted down by collapsed within 4%-5%.
Stocks plunged Thursday in their single worst day since the 2008 financial crisis.
Investors concern about the low pace of economic recovery of the U.S. and world in a whole as for a long time macroeconomic data show worse results than would be expected .
Shares of LinkedIn (LNKD) surged 7.8% in afterhours trading, when the newly-public company reported its second-quarter profit doubled from a year ago and its sales beat forecasts.
On Wednesday the Wall Street Journal reported that three former top officials at the Fed said the central bank should consider a new round of securities purchases to bolster economic growth. The Fed finished its second round of so-called quantitative easing, nicknamed “QE2” by investors, at the end of June. But this news didn’t support the markets.
Economy: The Labor Department's weekly initial jobless claims report showed that claims totaled 400K last week. Economists had expected weekly unemployment claims to rise to 410K from last week's 398K claims.
While the number was mildly better than expected, it still indicated weakness in the labor market. Investors wait for Friday’ data on unemployment rate.
Corporate news: As for the Dow-component stocks, shares of Alcoa (AA -9.3%), Caterpillar (CAT -7.0%) and Bank of America (BAC - 7.4%) suffered the highest losses, and among the S&P-components - Apple (AAPL -3.9%), Google (GOOG -3.9%) and Netflix (NFLX -5.5).
Despite strong quarterly reports shares many companies fell: Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST -0.7%). Limited (LTD -1.3%), LinkedIn (LNKD -9.6%). Such giants as General Motors (GM -4.3%) and AIG (AIG -6.4%) released weak financial results on Wednesday.

05:32
Techs on USD/CHF:

Resistance 3: Chf0.7960   
Resistance 2: Chf0.7820
Resistance 1: Chf0.7690
Current price: Chf0.7661
Support 1: Chf0.7610/00
Support 2: Chf0.7520
Support 3: Chf0.7490

Comments: Rate tested strong support at Chf0.7610/00 (Aug 02 lows, record lows) and retreated. Below losses may widen to Chf0.7540/50 (channel line from Jul 08 and 22 crossing). Resistance is around session highs on Chf0.7690/00, stronger - at Chf0.7820 (23.6% of Chf0.8515 - Chf0.7610 decline).

05:28
EU STOCKS are initially seen an extension of the sell-off: the FTSE down 100 to 5293, the DAX down 13 to 6285 and the CAC down 67 to 3253.
05:18
Techs on GBP/USD:

Resistance 3: $1.6440      
Resistance 2: $1.6330      
Resistance 1: $1.6280      
Current price: $1.6257
Support 1: $1.6230          
Support 2: $1.6130         
Support 3: $1.6000         

Comments: Rate holds above overnight lows at $1.6230 (initial support). Below su[pport comes at $1.6130 (50% of $1.5780 - $1.6480 rise). resistance comes at session highs on $1.6280 with a break above targets $1.6330 (50% of $1.6440 - $1.6230).

05:15
Daily history for Aug'04'2011:
Change % Change Last

Nikkei  +22.04  (0.23%)  9,659.18 
Topix  0.39  (-0.05%)  826.36
DAX  -225.83  (-3.40%)  6,414.76
CAC  -134.59  (-3.90%)  3,320.35
FTSE-100  -191.37  (-3.43%)  5,393.14
Dow  Dow  -512.76  (-4.31%)  11,383.70
Nasdaq  -60.27  (-4.78%)  1,200.07
S&P500  -136.68  (-5.08%)  2,556.39
10-Years    2.40%  -0.217
Oil    -0.19  (-0.22%)  86.44
Gold  -8.60  (-0.52%)  1,650.40

05:09
Japan Leading Economic Index (Jun) Preliminar 103.2
05:04
Japan Coincident Index (Jun) Preliminar 108.6
04:51
Techs on EUR/USD:

Resistance 3: $1.4370 
Resistance 2: $1.4200/10  
Resistance 1: $1.4130
Current price: $1.4113
Support 1: $1.4050 
Support 2: $1.4010   
Support 3: $1.3830   

Comments: Rate remains under pressure. Support is near Asian lows at $1.4050 with a break under losses may widen to $1.4010 (Jul 18 lows). Stronger level comes at $1.3830 (Jul 12 lows). Resistance comes at $1.4130 (session lows, also 23.6% of $1.4370 - $1.4050 decline).

04:09
Schedule for today, Friday, Aug'05'2011:

05:00     Japan     Leading indicators composite index (June) preliminary         103.4    99.6
05:00     Japan     Coincident indicators composite index (June) preliminary         -    106.3
08:00     Italy     GDP (Q2) preliminary         0.2%    0.1%
08:00     Italy     GDP (Q2) preliminary Y/Y         0.8%    1.0%
08:00     Italy     Industrial production (June) adjusted         0.1%    -0.6%
08:00     Italy     Industrial production (June) Y/Y adjusted         1.7%    1.8%
08:30     UK     PPI (Output) (July) unadjusted         0.2%    0.1%
08:30     UK     PPI (Output) (July) unadjusted Y/Y         5.8%    5.7%
08:30     UK     PPI Output ex FDT (July) adjusted         0.2%    0.2%
08:30     UK     PPI Output ex FDT (July) unadjusted Y/Y         -    3.2%
08:30     UK     PPI (Input) (July) adjusted         0.5%    0.4%
08:30     UK     PPI (Input) (July) unadjusted Y/Y         18.7%    17.0%
10:00     Germany     Industrial production (June) seasonally adjusted         0.1%    1.2%
10:00     Germany     Industrial production (June) not seasonally adjusted, workday adjusted Y/Y         8.1%    7.6%
11:00     Canada     Employment (July)         +18.0K    +28.4K
11:00     Canada     Unemployment rate (July)         7.4%    7.4%
12:30     USA     Nonfarm payrolls (July)         +70K    +18K
12:30     USA     Unemployment rate (July)         9.2%    9.2%
12:30     USA     Average hourly earnings (July)         0.2%    0.0%
12:30     USA     Average workweek (July)         34.3    34.3
19:00     USA     Consumer credit (June), bln         5.0    5.1

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