CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 05-01-2011

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05.01.2011
19:47
Dow +32.36 at 11723.54, Nasdaq +14.79 at 2696.69, S&P +5.20 at 1275.74
The stock market continues to move sideways along session highs. The dollar also remains near its best level of the day as it sports a 1.0% gain. Treasuries recently slid to fresh session lows, however. The benchmark 10-year Note is now down more than a full point so that its yield is at 3.47%, which is its highest level of the week. Meanwhile, the 30-year Bond is down more than two points so that its yield is at 4.55%. Some economists are concerned that rising yields, though indicative of more risk taking among investors, could curtail demand for housing, which remains a troubled spot in the macro environment.
19:18
American focus: the dollar gained the most in three months against the yen as reports showed U.S. companies almost tripled the forecast of jobs added in December and services industries grew at the fastest pace since May 2006.


The euro fell against most of its major counterparts as the Swiss National Bank said it won’t accept bonds from some Irish banks as collateral. The Canadian dollar and Mexican peso were the best performers versus the yen on evidence of a North American economic recovery before the U.S. government’s payrolls figures due later this week.

“If you’ve got an expectation of a big payroll number, then dollar-yen is your bet,” said Greg Anderson, a currency strategist at Citigroup Inc. in New York. “Good payroll numbers on Friday is this morning’s move with an exclamation point.”

The dollar advanced 1.4 percent to 83.21 yen at 12:16 p.m. in New York, from 82.04 yen yesterday. It rose as much as 1.6 percent in the biggest intraday gain since Sept. 15 and touched 83.36 yen, the highest level since Dec. 23. The dollar may appreciate to 85 yen by the end of the week if the payrolls report is strong, according to Anderson. The euro fell 1.1 percent to $1.3168, from $1.3308.

Company employment increased by 297,000 in December after a revised gain of 92,000 in the previous month, ADP Employer Services reported. The median forecast of 33 economists in a Bloomberg News survey was for a gain of 100,000.

18:30
IRELAND: Ireland's budget deficit narrowed to E18.75bln at the end of 2010 from E24.9bln in 2009, according to data published by the Irish debt agency, NTMA published Wednesday.
17:30
US: Pres Obama confirms press spokesman Gibbs is leaving.
15:33
US: EIA oil data for Dec 31 wk: -4.2 million barrels to 335.3 million barrels
15:27
USD/JPY holds above Y83.00

USD/JPY had lifted to Y83.25 area before settling back slightly as Japanese names sold, but dollar sees a fresh round of buying at writing, returning dollar-yen to near Y83.18. Stops still scattered to Y83.50 with little in the way of exporter supply reported.

15:15
HSBC rev Dec nonfarm payrolls est to +175,000, up from +140,000.
15:13
HSBC rev Dec nonfarm payrolls est to +175,000, up from +140,000.
15:01
US: Dec nonmfg ISM 57.1 vs 55.0.
14:33
US DATA REACT:

HFE says Dec payrolls could be as much as +250k given the ADP report. ADP was +297k and was so big that "something other than seasonals must be at work." ADP reported gains across categories.

14:22
Before the bell: Stocks poised to pull back

U.S. stocks were poised to head lower Wednesday, as investors mulled over signs of an improving job market.

Economy: Before the opening bell, private sector payrolls soared by 297,000 in December, according to a report from payroll processor ADP. Economists were expecting the report to show that payrolls increase by 100,000 last month, compared to November's 93,000 rise.
The report could set the tone ahead of the Friday's monthly jobs report. Economists expect employers boosted payrolls by 135,000 last month, following a 39,000 increase in November.
After the opening bell Wednesday, a report from the Institute of Supply Management is forecast to show that activity picked up in the service sector last month. Economists expect the ISM Non-manufacturing Index to register at 55.7, compared to November's 55.0 reading.
Companies: Wireless tech giant Qualcomm (QCOM, Fortune 500) agreed to buy chip maker Atheros Communications (ATHR) for $3.1 billion in cash, or $45 per share, a 22% premium over Atheros' closing price on Monday. Shares of Atheros rose 1.8% in premarket trading, while Qualcomm's stock edged up 0.6%.

14:12
US DATA REACT:

CRT says +297k ADP Dec pvt payrolls was well above the +100k consensus. "Adjusting for the 'skew' we take off 68K and another 15k for govt jobs to makes this a still high 214K."

13:49
US DATA REACT:

Mizuho says ADP +297k "is the first real sign that ther labor market may be getting better and that the economy has passed the point of peak risk. The 297,000 ADP report is not a perfect indicator of Friday's jobs number but will get economists to bump up" payroll ests. Mizuho says the whisper number for Fri's payrolls could go to +200k.

13:31
REACT:

Dollar gets a kick higher as ADP report tops expectations with a strong +297k. Currently EUR/USD weakens to $1.3170, GBP/USD - to $1.5540, and USD/JPY rose to Y82.85.Stock futures pare losses.

13:16
US: Dec ADP pvt payrolls +297k.
13:12
ADP report is due to come at 13:15 GMT

Median estimate is for 100K rise in December after +93K month earlier.  A rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive, or bullish for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative, or bearish.

12:59
EUR/GBP retreats again

EUR/GBP recovers off recent stretched lows of stg0.8475 to stg0.8512, but failed to set above. Cross currently holds around stg0.8492. Euro-sterling offers seen palced between stg0.8520/25, more between stg0.8540/45.

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