CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 03-12-2018

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03.12.2018
23:30
Schedule for today, Tuesday, December 4, 2018
Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
00:30 Australia Current Account, bln Quarter III -13.5 -10.2
03:30 Australia Announcement of the RBA decision on the discount rate 1.5% 1.5%
03:30 Australia RBA Rate Statement    
08:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (MoM) November 0.2% -0.1%
08:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) November 1.1% 1.0%
09:15 United Kingdom BOE Gov Mark Carney Speaks    
09:30 United Kingdom PMI Construction November 53.2 52.6
10:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index, MoM October 0.5% 0.5%
10:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) October 4.5% 4.5%
13:30 Canada Labor Productivity Quarter III 0.7% 0.4%
15:00 U.S. FOMC Member Williams Speaks    
18:00 United Kingdom MPC Member Vlieghe Speaks    
22:30 Australia AIG Services Index November 51.1  
21:31
U.S.: Total Vehicle Sales, mln, November 17.49 (forecast 17.3)
21:12
Major US stock indexes ended in positive territory

Major US stock indexes rose significantly on Monday, helped by the rise in price of trade-sensitive industrial and technological stocks after the United States and China agreed on a temporary truce.

This agreement was reached this weekend in Argentina, where a meeting of G20 leaders was held. According to the agreement, the moratorium is introduced for a 90-day period in order for the parties to work out a final agreement on trade issues. In addition, China agreed to increase purchases of US-made agricultural and industrial products, as well as reduce tariffs on imported cars from the US, which now account for 40%.

In addition, as shown by a report published by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), in November, activity in the US manufacturing sector rose sharply and exceeded forecasts. The PMI index for the manufacturing sector rose to 59.3 points from 57.7 points in October. Analysts had expected the index to improve to 57.8.

At the same time, construction spending in the United States fell for the third consecutive month in October, as spending on private projects declined. The Ministry of Commerce reported that in October, construction spending fell by 0.1% to $ 1.31 trillion, after declining by 0.1% in September (revised from 0.0%). Economists had forecast growth in construction spending by 0.4%. Meanwhile, in annual terms, construction costs increased by 4.9%.

Most of the DOW components showed a rise (21 out of 30). The growth leader was NIKE, Inc. (NKE, + 3.79%). The outsider was Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ, -3.53%).

All sectors of the S & P finished trading in positive territory. The growth leader was the commodity sector (+ 2.6%).

IndexChange, pointsClosedChange, %
Dow Jones287.9725826.431.13
S&P 50030.22790.371.09
NASDAQ Composite110.987441.511.51
20:50
Schedule for tomorrow, Tuesday, December 4, 2018
Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
00:30 Australia Current Account, bln Quarter III -13.5 -10.2
03:30 Australia Announcement of the RBA decision on the discount rate 1.5% 1.5%
03:30 Australia RBA Rate Statement    
08:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (MoM) November 0.2% -0.1%
08:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) November 1.1% 1.0%
09:15 United Kingdom BOE Gov Mark Carney Speaks    
09:30 United Kingdom PMI Construction November 53.2 52.6
10:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index, MoM October 0.5% 0.5%
10:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) October 4.5% 4.5%
13:30 Canada Labor Productivity Quarter III 0.7% 0.4%
15:00 U.S. FOMC Member Williams Speaks    
18:00 United Kingdom MPC Member Vlieghe Speaks    
22:30 Australia AIG Services Index November 51.1  
20:00
DJIA +0.95% 25,780.14 +241.68 Nasdaq +1.20% 7,418.37 +87.83 S&P +0.87% 2,784.20 +24.03
17:00
European stocks closed: FTSE 100 +82.17 7062.41 +1.18% DAX +208.22 11465.46 +1.85% CAC 40 +50.06 5053.98 +1.00%
15:06
U.S ISM manufacturing PMI registered 59.3 percent, an increase of 1.6 percentage points from the October reading

The November PMI registered 59.3 percent, an increase of 1.6 percentage points from the October reading of 57.7 percent. The New Orders Index registered 62.1 percent, an increase of 4.7 percentage points from the October reading of 57.4 percent.

“Comments from the panel reflect continued expanding business strength. Demand remains strong, with the New Orders Index rebounding to above 60 percent, the Customers’ Inventories Index declining and remaining too low, and the Backlog of Orders Index steady.

Consumption strengthened, with production and employment continuing to expand, both at higher levels compared to October. Inputs — expressed as supplier deliveries, inventories and imports — gained as a result of inventory growth.

Supplier delivery easing improved factory consumption as well as inventory growth, and import expansion was relatively stable. Lead-time extensions continue, while steel and aluminum prices are declining. Supplier labor issues and transportation difficulties are at more manageable levels, but they continue to limit production potential”.


15:00
U.S.: Construction Spending, m/m, October -0.1% (forecast 0.4%)
15:00
U.S.: ISM Manufacturing, November 59.3 (forecast 57.8)
14:45
U.S.: Manufacturing PMI, November 55.3 (forecast 55.4)
14:34
U.S. Stocks open: Dow +1.59%, Nasdaq +1.87%, S&P +1.40%
14:28
Before the bell: S&P futures +1.44%, NASDAQ futures +2.06%

Before the bell: S&P futures +1.44%, NASDAQ futures +2.06%

U.S. stock-index futures surged on Monday, as investors cheered U.S.-China trade truce.


Global Stocks:

Index/commodity

Last

Today's Change, points

Today's Change, %

Nikkei

22,574.76

+223.70

+1.00%

Hang Seng

27,182.04

+675.29

+2.55%

Shanghai

2,654.80

+66.61

+2.57%

S&P/ASX

5,771.20

+104.00

+1.84%

FTSE

7,088.01

+107.77

+1.54%

CAC

5,043.33

+39.41

+0.79%

DAX

11,488.11

+230.87

+2.05%

Crude

$53.33


+4.71%

Gold

$1,237.80


+0.96%

13:51
Wall Street. Stocks before the bell

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)


3M Co

MMM

211.51

3.59(1.73%)

1855

ALCOA INC.

AA

32.79

0.98(3.08%)

13654

ALTRIA GROUP INC.

MO

55.25

0.42(0.77%)

7704

Amazon.com Inc., NASDAQ

AMZN

1,763.50

73.33(4.34%)

194090

American Express Co

AXP

113.27

1.00(0.89%)

1808

AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP

AIG

43.88

0.63(1.46%)

550

Apple Inc.

AAPL

184.45

5.87(3.29%)

819429

AT&T Inc

T

31.8

0.56(1.79%)

286311

Barrick Gold Corporation, NYSE

ABX

12.86

0.11(0.86%)

261350

Boeing Co

BA

360

13.24(3.82%)

78893

Caterpillar Inc

CAT

141.25

5.58(4.11%)

85126

Chevron Corp

CVX

121.89

2.95(2.48%)

5696

Cisco Systems Inc

CSCO

48.29

0.42(0.88%)

39516

Citigroup Inc., NYSE

C

65.95

1.16(1.79%)

47985

Deere & Company, NYSE

DE

161.01

6.13(3.96%)

20891

Exxon Mobil Corp

XOM

80.59

1.09(1.37%)

11284

Facebook, Inc.

FB

143.35

2.74(1.95%)

174041

FedEx Corporation, NYSE

FDX

234

5.00(2.18%)

1050

Ford Motor Co.

F

9.69

0.28(2.98%)

292948

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., NYSE

FCX

12.45

0.51(4.27%)

77904

General Electric Co

GE

7.64

0.14(1.87%)

670143

General Motors Company, NYSE

GM

39.2

1.25(3.29%)

98987

Goldman Sachs

GS

194

3.31(1.74%)

28247

Google Inc.

GOOG

1,123.50

29.07(2.66%)

17653

Hewlett-Packard Co.

HPQ

23.3

0.30(1.30%)

6867

Home Depot Inc

HD

183.55

3.23(1.79%)

9784

HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL INC.

HON

148.42

1.67(1.14%)

350

Intel Corp

INTC

50.06

0.75(1.52%)

112426

International Business Machines Co...

IBM

125.9

1.63(1.31%)

17267

Johnson & Johnson

JNJ

148.03

1.13(0.77%)

5552

JPMorgan Chase and Co

JPM

112.59

1.40(1.26%)

17003

McDonald's Corp

MCD

190.8

2.29(1.21%)

13522

Merck & Co Inc

MRK

79.95

0.61(0.77%)

12226

Microsoft Corp

MSFT

113

2.11(1.90%)

225100

Nike

NKE

76.84

1.72(2.29%)

16230

Pfizer Inc

PFE

46.56

0.33(0.71%)

14205

Procter & Gamble Co

PG

94.71

0.20(0.21%)

9498

Starbucks Corporation, NASDAQ

SBUX

67.33

0.61(0.91%)

9915

Tesla Motors, Inc., NASDAQ

TSLA

362.5

12.02(3.43%)

154667

The Coca-Cola Co

KO

50.39

-0.01(-0.02%)

28315

Twitter, Inc., NYSE

TWTR

32.1

0.65(2.07%)

133022

United Technologies Corp

UTX

123.38

1.54(1.26%)

6900

UnitedHealth Group Inc

UNH

287

5.64(2.00%)

12256

Verizon Communications Inc

VZ

59.81

-0.49(-0.81%)

36885

Visa

V

144.69

2.98(2.10%)

30004

Wal-Mart Stores Inc

WMT

99.15

1.50(1.54%)

19319

Walt Disney Co

DIS

116.5

1.01(0.87%)

25167

Yandex N.V., NASDAQ

YNDX

30.1

0.60(2.03%)

33736

13:46
Downgrades before the market open

Verizon (VZ) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan

13:45
Upgrades before the market open

AT&T (T) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Cowen

AT&T (T) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan
Caterpillar (CAT) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill

13:13
U.S treasury yields climbed Monday after President Donald Trump's deal with China's leader Xi Jinping this weekend to delay a further increase in tariffs stoked demand for stocks, diminishing demand for government paper

  • The 10-year Treasury note yield rose 2.2 basis points to 3.035%. The 2-year note yield picked up 2.6 basis points to 2.837%, while the 30-year bond yield added 1.2 basis points to 3.323%. Bond prices move in the opposite direction of yields

11:58
Fed Vice Chair Clarida Says Trade Important Part Of Global Economy @LiveSquawk

  • Says Outlook For U.S. Economy Looks Very Solid

  • Fed Meeting Goals Helps With Financial Stability

11:57
ECB adopts new capital key

“The Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) adopted legal acts on the regular five-yearly adjustment to its capital key and the contributions paid by the national central banks (NCBs) of the European Union. The new key for subscription to the ECB’s capital will enter into force on 1 January 2019.

The shares of the NCBs in the ECB’s capital are weighted according to the share of the respective Member States in the total population and gross domestic product of the European Union (EU), in equal measure.*

The weightings are based on data provided by the European Commission. NCBs will transfer capital shares among themselves to the extent necessary to ensure that the distribution of the shares corresponds to the adjusted key.

Following the latest review, 16 central banks will have a higher share in the ECB’s capital than before and 12 central banks will have a lower share. The new distribution of the NCBs’ shares is set out in the table below. The total amount of the subscribed capital of the ECB remains unchanged at €10,825,007,069.61”.


10:46
Kashkari: Recent Powell Comments Not Affected by Trump's Fed Criticism

  • Modest Inflation Overshoot Wouldn't Require Fed Rate Increases

  • Fed Should Show Its Inflation Target Is Truly Symmetric

  • Not Forecasting Recession, But Risk of Downturn Is Higher

  • Sees a Number of Triggers That Could Cause Recession

  • Overly Aggressive Fed Rate Rises Could Cause Recession

10:44
Fed's Kashkari: 'Still There' in Believing Rate Rises Are a Bad Idea

  • Tame Inflation Doesn't Support Push for Rate Rises

  • Fed Has Plenty of Time to Gauge Whether Hot Job Market Will Fuel Inflation

  • Strong, Sustained Job Gains Indicate Full Employment Not Yet Reached

  • 'Political Noise' Not Affecting Fed Policy Deliberations

09:42
November saw a slight acceleration in the rate of improvement of UK manufacturing business conditions

The seasonally adjusted IHS Markit/CIPS PMI rose to 53.1, up from October's 27-month low of 51.1. However, the performance of the sector remained comparatively lacklustre, with the latest PMI reading still among the weakest registered over the past two-and-a-half years.

The trend in output strengthened slightly during November, as new order intakes rose following October's decline. The domestic market remained the prime source of new contract wins. Where an increase was reported, this was linked to new product launches and client stock-building. Output and new orders rose across the consumer, intermediate and investment goods sub-industries

09:30
United Kingdom: Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing , November 53.1 (forecast 51.5)
09:07
November’s IHS Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI signalled the continued growth slowdown of the single currency area’s manufacturing economy

Although remaining above the crucial 50.0 nochange mark for a sixty-fifth month running, the final PMI came in at 51.8 in November, down from 52.0 in October and the lowest reading since August 2016.

Weakness was centred on the investment goods sector, according to market groups data. Capital goods producers registered net falls in both production and new work. Export trade was also down for a third month running, whilst cost pressures remained elevated. In contrast, solid growth continued to be recorded amongst consumer goods producers.  

09:06
Germany's manufacturing sector lost further momentum in November, according to the latest PMI data

Phil Smith, Principal Economist at IHS Markit, which compiles the Germany Manufacturing PMI survey, commented: "The PMI showed the recent slowdown in the manufacturing sector extending into the penultimate month of the year. "With the car industry still struggling and geopolitical uncertainties affecting client demand, manufacturers reported a deepening decline in new orders, and export sales in particular.

"Output levels are now teetering on the brink of contraction. November's small increase in production was the weakest since the upturn began more than five-and-a-half years ago and was due in large part to firms catching up on backlogs of work. With backlogs shrinking at an accelerated rate, manufacturers will need inflows of new work to recover to maintain growth”.

09:00
Eurozone: Manufacturing PMI, November 51.8 (forecast 51.5)
08:55
Turnover in the Swiss retail sector rose by 1.2% on year

Turnover in the retail sector rose by 1.2% in nominal terms in October 2018 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover rose by 1.9% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

Real turnover in the retail sector also adjusted for sales days and holidays rose by 0.8% in October 2018 compared with the previous year. Real growth takes inflation into consideration. Compared with the previous month, real, seasonally adjusted retail trade turnover registered an increase of 1.9%.


08:55
Germany: Manufacturing PMI, November 51.8 (forecast 51.6)
08:54
Italy PM Conte To Negotiate With EU On Budget, Not Tria - Stampa
08:53
November data pointed to the softest improvement in French manufacturing operating conditions for 26 months

The latest results reflected falling new orders and job shedding. Meanwhile, prices continued to rise sharply as input cost inflation hit a nine-month high and charges increased at a solid pace.

At 50.8 in November, down from 51.2 in October, the seasonally adjusted IHS Markit France Manufacturing PMI pointed to a slower improvement in business conditions. In fact, the upturn was the weakest since September 2016, when a deterioration was recorded.

08:52
The downturn in the Italian manufacturing sector continued in November as firms indicated marked falls in output and new orders

In addition to the contraction in output, export sales declined for the second consecutive month amid reports of weaker external demand. Meanwhile, confidence towards the 12-month outlook fell to the lowest level since early 2013. On the prices front, input cost inflation moderated to a 16-month low and manufacturers continued to raise their output charges.

08:51
Growth of Spain's manufacturing economy strengthened again during November - Markit

Growth of Spain's manufacturing economy strengthened again during November, supported by improved gains in both output and new orders. Jobs continued to be created as capacity pressures persisted, but confidence about the future softened amid worries over subdued trends in global autos production and demand.

The seasonally adjusted IHS Markit Spain Manufacturing – a composite single-figure indicator of manufacturing performance – posted 52.6 in November. That was up from 51.8 during October and pointed to the strongest growth for three months. The PMI has now posted above the 50.0 no-change mark that separates growth from contraction throughout the past five years.

08:51
France: Manufacturing PMI, November 50.8 (forecast 50.7)
08:30
Switzerland: Manufacturing PMI, November 57.7 (forecast 56.3)
08:17
Switzerland: Retail Sales (MoM), October 1.9%
08:15
Switzerland: Retail Sales Y/Y, October 0.8%
08:06
OPEC Economic Panel Recommends 1.3M B/D Output Cut From Oct Levels

  • Economic Panel Says 1.3M B/D Output Cut Would Balance Market

  • OPEC ECB Panel Advises Oil Output Cut Ahead of Dec. 6 Cartel Gathering

  • Doesn't Set Policy for the Group

08:03
Qatar to Withdraw from OPEC - Energy Minister

  • Qatar to Withdraw from OPEC from Jan.1

  • Qatar Has Informed OPEC of Decision

07:26
Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index fell from 52.9 in October to 52.2 in November

The headline Nikkei Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index fell from 52.9 in October to 52.2 in November, therefore pointing to a slower rate of improvement in business conditions. The latest reading for the headline index was the lowest since August 2017.

Commenting on the Japanese Manufacturing PMI survey data, Joe Hayes, Economist at IHS Markit, which compiles the survey, said: “The fall in Japan’s manufacturing PMI tells us that October’s bounce-back was indeed a transitory jump back to normality following weather-related disruptions in September. The underlying picture remains subdued, with momentum tilting towards a slowdown. New orders rose at just a slight pace as goods producers raised concerns about the demand environment. Subdued sales performances reflected fragile conditions both domestically and abroad. According to firms, weak demand from China and parts of Europe hampered export growth. “As such, expectations for future growth were reduced, with business confidence towards the year-ahead sliding for a sixth straight month to the lowest in two years.”

07:25
Australian building approvals declined 1.5% in October

Total dwelling units:

  • The trend estimate for total dwellings approved fell 1.1% in october.

  • The seasonally adjusted estimate for total dwellings approved fell 1.5% in october.

Private sector houses:

  • The trend estimate for private sector houses approved fell 0.5% in october.

  • The seasonally adjusted estimate for private sector houses rose 2.7% in october.

  • Private sector dwellings excluding houses

  • The trend estimate for private sector dwellings excluding houses fell 1.8% in october.

  • The seasonally adjusted estimate for private sector dwellings excluding houses fell 4.8% in october.

Value of building approved:

  • The trend estimate of the value of total building approved fell 1.5% in october and has fallen for 12 months. The value of residential building fell 1.4% and has fallen for ten months. The value of non-residential building fell 1.8% and has fallen for 15 months.

  • The seasonally adjusted estimate of the value of total building approved rose 2.8% in october. The value of residential building rose 2.1%, while the value of non-residential building rose 4.0%.


07:22
November data pointed to a marginal improvement in Chinese manufacturing operating conditions - Markit

Companies signalled a slightly stronger increase in total new work, despite reduced amounts of export orders. Production was meanwhile stable for the second month in a row. Relatively muted client demand and efforts to lower costs contributed to a further reduction in staff numbers, while confidence towards the year ahead remained subdued. At the same time, inflationary pressures eased, with input costs increasing at the softest pace for seven months and selling prices falling for the first time in a year-and-a-half amid efforts to attract new business.

The headline seasonally adjusted Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) – a composite indicator designed to provide a single-figure snapshot of operating conditions in the manufacturing economy – was little-changed from October’s reading of 50.1 at 50.2 in November. This signalled a further fractional improvement in the health of China’s manufacturing sector.

07:20
China has agreed to reduce and remove tariffs on cars coming into China from the U.S. Currently the tariff is 40% @realDonaldTrump
06:08
Options levels on monday, December 3, 2018 EURUSD GBPUSD

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1459 (3662)

$1.1418 (2778)

$1.1385 (3051)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1363

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1262 (4240)

$1.1229 (5000)

$1.1211 (5864)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date December, 7 is 126023 contracts (according to data from November, 30) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1200 (5864);


GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2924 (2410)

$1.2854 (1486)

$1.2804 (614)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2778

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2697 (2342)

$1.2675 (1292)

$1.2647 (3316)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date December, 7 is 59362 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3500 (4720);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date December, 7 is 47016 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2500 (3614);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.79 versus 0.79 from the previous trading day according to data from November, 30

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

02:30
Commodities. Daily history for Friday, November 30, 2018
Raw materials Closed Change, %
Brent 59.16 -0.95
WTI 50.75 -1.11
Silver 14.15 -0.84
Gold 1221.67 -0.2
Palladium 1177.6 -0.29
01:45
China: Markit/Caixin Manufacturing PMI, November 50.2 (forecast 50.1)
00:31
Australia: ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM), November -0.3%
00:30
Japan: Manufacturing PMI, November 52.2 (forecast 51.8)
00:30
Stocks. Daily history for Friday, November 30, 2018
Index Change, points Closed Change, %
NIKKEI 225 88.46 22351.06 0.4
Hang Seng 55.72 26506.75 0.21
KOSPI -17.24 2096.86 -0.82
ASX 200 -91.2 5667.2 -1.58
FTSE 100 -58.76 6980.24 -0.83
DAX -40.99 11257.24 -0.36
CAC 40 -2.33 5003.92 -0.05
Dow Jones 199.62 25538.46 0.79
S&P 500 22.41 2760.17 0.82
NASDAQ Composite 57.46 7330.54 0.79
00:30
Australia: Company Gross Profits QoQ, Quarter III 1.9% (forecast 2.8%)
00:30
Australia: Building Permits, m/m, October -1.5% (forecast -2%)
00:15
Currencies. Daily history for Friday, November 30, 2018
Pare Closed Change, %
AUDUSD 0.73069 -0.15
EURJPY 128.495 -0.6
EURUSD 1.13195 -0.64
GBPJPY 144.626 -0.3
GBPUSD 1.27406 -0.33
NZDUSD 0.68727 0.21
USDCAD 1.32868 0.03
USDCHF 0.99905 0.33
USDJPY 113.512 0.04

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