Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 28-07-2011.

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28.07.2011
19:12
US House is scheduled to vote on Boehner debt bill at 21:45 GMT- 22:45 GMT.
18:54
Amazon (AMZN) announced a deal with NBCUniversal for access to certain Universal Studios movies, stepping up competition with Netflix Inc. (NFLX) and Hulu LLC.
18:46
EUR/USD holds near resistance at $1.4320
18:38
EUR/JPY set stable

EUR/JPY holds stable around Y111.36, a bit lower session highs on Y111.47. Small bids between Y110.70/60 and Y110.20.

17:54
US focus: Dollar slipped

The dollar declines versus a basket of currencies as in the U.S. Congress Republicans and Democrats are still locked in a stalemate on raising the debt ceiling.

Even believing there will be a last-minute deal on the debt ceiling, the head of China's Dagong rating agency still plans to cut its U.S. rating soon. He said that the only question will be the size of the move.

Another factor for falling is statement by Richmond Fed Lacker about US economy.

The euro rising against the dollar after a huge drop, which was triggered as yesterday rating agency S&P downgraded the credit rating of Greece to 'CC' from 'CCC' with negative outlook. The downgrade of Greece by 2 notches takes it to the same level as Moody's Ca rating (developing outlook).

The kiwi slightly dropped against the dollar. The currency rose toward a record high after the central bank said it will likely remove the half-percentage-point “insurance” cut in the target lending rate made after a February earthquake. But the rise was curbed as Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard signaled that strength of New Zealand’ dollar may reduce the extent of rate increases.

Japan yen also went up as US President and the senators still haven’t reached an agreement on raising the US national debt..

17:07
US: Richmond Fed Lacker about US economy
  • ADDL MON STIM NOW WLD RAISE INFL TO UNDESIBLE LEVELS
  • BEYOND FED POWER TO OFFSET FACTORS HOLDING BACK GROWTH
  • MICRO POL CHGS CLD HAVE HIGHLY CONSEQUENTL MACRO IMPACT
  • QE2 RAISED INFL, DID LITTLE TO IMPROVE REAL GROWTH
  • UNEMP HIGH, INFL HAS RISEN, GROWTH 'DECIDEDLY MEDIOCRE'
  • RICHMOND FED LACKER: CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT RECOVRY
  • INFL TO AVERAGE CLOSE TO 2% OVER THE COMING YEAR
  • BIZ INVEST IN EQUIPMENT,SOFTWARE LIKELY TO STAY ROBUST
  • CHINA,INDIA, BRAZIL GRWTH SHLD SUPPORT EXPORT DMD AHEAD
  • GDP GROWTH AROUND 4% NEXT 2 YRS CLOSE TO MY FORECAST
16:39
Goldman Sachs says Cisco (CSCO +3.8%) is “still solid" and upgarded the company to Buy from Neutral and its price target to $21.
16:05
European stocks close: FTSE +17 (+0.28%) 5,873, CAC -15 (-0.41%) 3,713, DAX -57 (-0.78%) 7,190
15:33
Dow 12,370 +67 +0.55% Nasdaq 2,799 +34 +1.22% S&P 500 1,316 +11 +0.83%

A surprise drop in jobless claims suported the markets (398K vs. est. 425K and prev. 418K), but investors rare still worry about the impending debt ceiling deadline.

15:01
Dagong, rating agency in China, may cut US debt rating near future

Even believing there will be a last-minute deal on the debt ceiling, the head of China's Dagong rating agency still plans to cut its U.S. rating soon. The only question will be the size of the move.

14:37
US, McConnell: 'Shoked to see all Democrats in Senate are against the Boehner's plan
14:27
Dow -3.40 at 12299.15, Nasdaq +4.65 at 2769.44, S&P -0.24 at 1304.65

The majors trade without certain direction with the Nasdaq is pacing today's gains (+0.1%), while the S&P and Dow are holding some losses. Participants are now taking about pending home sales for June improved 2.4% month over month. The consensus among economists had actually called for a 3.0% slip.

14:00
US: June pending home sales index +2.4% to 90.9
13:55
Median estimate on Jun NAR pending home sales: -2%
13:42
Option expires for 14:00 GMT NY cut

EUR/USD $1.4350, $1.4400, $1.4500
EUR/JPY Y110.50
GBP/USD $1.6020
AUD/USD $1.1025

13:27
Before the bell: Debt debate may drag stocks

U.S. stocks were set to open little changed Wednesday, as investors worried about the impending debt ceiling deadline, and lawmakers showed little evidence they are moving closer to a deal.
On Thursday, the House will vote on the debt ceiling plan favored by Republicans. Even if the measure passes, it is expected to die in the Senate, and President Obama has threatened to veto it.

Economy: The Labor Department reported 398,000 Americans filed for initial unemployment benefits last week (the first time claims have dropped below 400,000 in more than three months). Economists had expected 415,000 claims.
Investors are also looking ahead to Friday's monthly GDP report. The government will report how much the economy expanded in the second quarter.
A survey of economists forecasts the economy grew only at a 1.8% annual rate in the second quarter, which would be a slight slowdown from the first quarter, when it grew 1.9%.
Companies: Oil producer Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500) reported earnings per share of $2.18, missing analyst estimates of $2.33 per share. Revenues came in at $125.4 billion, up from $92.5 billion over the same period last year. Shares dropped more than 1% in premarket trading.
Investors will also get results from MetLife (MET, Fortune 500) and Starbucks (SBUX, Fortune 500) after Thursday's closing bell.

13:04
USD/JPY gains ground

USD/JPY gets higher to current Y77.85 as the dollar finds some support. Resistance placed at Y78.15/20. Small stops in place through Y77.65 and barrier interest at Y77.50.

12:53
EUR/JPY recovers

EUR/JPY also extending recovery from earlier lows on Y110.82. Cross currently holds at Y111.11. Volumes are light. Bids remain at Y110.70/60 and Y110.20.

12:31
US: Initial jobless claims -24k to 398k in July 23 wk
12:02
EU session review: Haven demand supports Swiss franc

Data released:
07:55     Germany     Unemployment (July) seasonally adjusted    -11K    +3K    -8K
07:55     Germany     Unemployment (July) seasonally adjusted, mln    2.957    -    2.968 (2.967)
07:55     Germany     Unemployment rate (July) seasonally adjusted    7.0%    7.0%    7.0%
07:55     Germany     Unemployment (July) seasonally unadjusted, mln    2.939    -    2.893
07:55     Germany     Unemployment rate (July) seasonally unadjusted    7.0%    -    6.9%
09:00     EU(17)     Economic sentiment index (July)    103.2    104.0    105.4 (105.1)
09:00     EU(17)     Business climate indicator (July)    0.45    0.85    0.95 (0.92)
10:00     UK     CBI retail sales volume balance (July)    -5%    4%    -2%

The Swiss franc and the yen held close to recent highs against the dollar on Thursday amid US debt ceiling worries that stoked haven demand for both currencies.
Ongoing anxiety over eurozone government debt also added to market nervousness, weighing on the euro.
The Australian and New Zealand dollar, both of which hit record highs against the dollar on Wednesday were also in demand. Some analysts said the two currencies were displaying haven characteristics amid continuing worries over US and eurozone finances.

EUR/USD tested resistance at $1.4400, but failed to break above. Later rate fell to the lows around $1.4250, triggering some stops and bids.


GBP/USD was under pressure after the release of dissapointing CBI report (-5% in July). Rate fell to $1.6290 before recovered to $1.6322.

USD/JPY slowly recovers from lows on Y77.60.

US data starts at 1230GMT when initial jobless claims are expected to rise 2,000 to 420,000 in the July 23 week after see-sawing in the previous weeks. Seasonal adjustment difficulties related to the usual auto retooling period should continue to be a factor.



11:35
CORPORATE NEWS: CS said to be cutting 2,000 jobs. HSBC reported considering cutting 10,000 jobs.
11:05
EUR/JPY weakens on rumours

EUR/JPY continues to weaken, holding around Y111.00. Cross remains under pressure amid rumours that the Italian PM Berlusconi and Finmin Tremonti have both resigned.

10:48
USD/JPY recovers

USD/JPY holds around Y77.75, recovering from earlier lows around Y77.60. Bids remain at Y77.50, where option barrier is. Further stops are seen on a break of this level ahead of another barrier at Y77.00.


10:35
EUR/JPY holds around Y112.12 after it fell to the lows around Y110.93. Small bids ahead of Y110.70/60 and Y110.20.
10:17
EUR/USD triggeres stops on $1.4300/1.4290 ane fell to the lows around $1.4270. Break under support accelerates the decline.
10:00
UK: JUL CBI SALES BALANCE -5%
09:28
FTSE 5,838 -18.34 -0.31%, CAC 3,701 -32.97 -0.88%, DAX 7,175 -77.52 -1.07%
09:19
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

EUR/USD $1.4350, $1.4400, $1.4500
EUR/JPY Y110.50
GBP/USD $1.6020
AUD/USD $1.1025
Gold $1600


09:01
EMU DATA: Eurozone economic sentiment 103.2 in July
08:45
Fitch Ratings says it expects to resolve the Rating Watch Negative (RWN) on Portugal's 'BBB-' ratings in the fourth quarter of 2011.
08:15
Asian session: The yen gained

The yen gained against most of its major counterparts as concern that the U.S. and Europe will struggle to contain their debt burdens spurred demand for Japan’s currency as a refuge.
The euro held yesterday’s slide against the dollar after Standard & Poor’s said Greece will partially default once European officials push through a second bailout plan for the nation. 
The dollar was 0.2 percent from a record low against the Swiss franc as U.S. lawmakers remained at odds on how to raise the country’s debt limit and before data today that may show pending home sales dropped in June. 
The yen extended gains against the dollar amid speculation Japanese authorities will refrain from currency market intervention until after the U.S. debt limit is resolved.
The New Zealand dollar advanced toward an all-time high after the central bank kept interest rates unchanged and said it would likely remove a 50-basis-point “insurance” cut made after a February earthquake.

EUR/USD: the pair holds at $1.4330-$ 1.4380.
GBP/USD: the pair holds at $1.6310-$ 1.6340.
USD/JPY: the pair  decreased in Y77.70 area .

EMU data at 0900GMT includes the business climate indicator and economic 
confidence indicator, which are expected to show some mild decline.
UK data is limited to the CBI Distributive Trades data at 1000GMT, which will provide a useful update on the health of the High Street 
going into Q3.
US data starts at 1230GMT when initial jobless claims are expected to rise 2,000 to 420,000 in the July 23 week after see-sawing in the previous weeks. Seasonal adjustment difficulties related to the usual auto retooling period should continue to be a factor. 

08:08
Asia Pacific stocks close:

Nikkei 9,901 -145.84 -1.45% 
Hang Seng 22,515 -26.32 -0.12%  
S&P/ASX   4,464 -73.59 -1.62%   
Shanghai Composite  2,709 -14.71 -0.54%

07:55
GERMANY DATA: Unemployment in Germany fell by a seasonally-adjusted 11,000 in July, leaving the jobless rate unchanged at 7.0%
07:55
Forex: Wednesday's review

The dollar begins to rebound after its drop to the 11-week low versus a busket of currencies after Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said it’s time Republicans “face facts” and agree on a compromise plan. But prolonged standoff in Washington over hiking the U.S. debt ceiling continued.
The euro goes lower against the dollar after Standard & Poor’s lowered Greece’s credit rating to CC from CCC with negative outlook. The downgrade of Greece by 2 notches takes it to the same level as Moody's Ca rating (developing outlook). Fitch Ratings last downgraded Greece 3 notches on July 3 to CCC from B+ and removed it from Rating Watch Negative, as it has been since May 20.
The Australian dollar hit a fresh all-time high versus the dollar after the Reserve Bank of Australia  reported about better-than-expected rise of consumer price index inflation in the second quarter, focusing the market’s attention back on the interest rates. 
The New Zealand dollar reach record high versus US dollar amid reported advance in business confidance in July.
Both reports have renewed speculation that the central banks may tighten their monetary policies. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will release its interest rate decision tomorrow. Currently the main interest rate of Australia is at 4.75% and New Zealand’ is at 2.5%. Last month New Zealand central bank governor Alan Bollard hinted at a possible increase of the rate by 25 basis points in December.
The loonie plummetes against the dollar. Yesterday it hit the highest level over the last three years
Japan yen also moves down after reports from US.
EUR/USD: yesterday the pair decreased in $1.4370  area.
GBP/USD: yesterday the pair decreased in  $1.6330 area.
USD/JPY: the pair holds at Y77.55-Y78.20.
European data for Thursday starts at 0600GMT with the ILO measure of German unemployment, while the main release at 0755GMT is expected to 
produce a -10k jobless change with the rate remaining at 7.0%. Further EMU data at 0900GMT includes the business climate indicator and economic 
confidence indicator, which are expected to show some mild decline.
UK data is limited to the CBI Distributive Trades data at 1000GMT, which will provide a useful update on the health of the High Street 
going into Q3.
US data starts at 1230GMT when initial jobless claims are expected to rise 2,000 to 420,000 in the July 23 week after see-sawing in the previous weeks. Seasonal adjustment difficulties related to the usual auto retooling period should continue to be a factor. 

07:41
Orders:

GBP/USD
Offers $1.6440/50, $1.6410, $1.6395/400, $1.6375/80, $1.6350
Bids $1.6300, $1.6270/60, $1.6250, $1.6220, $1.6205/195

EUR/USD
Offers $1.4470/75, $1.4460, $1.4430/40, $1.4400/10
Bids $1.4310, $1.4280/75

07:34
Stocks: Wednesday's review

Asian markets closed Wednesday mixed.
Impasse of U.S. debt ceiling put pressure on stock markets in Tokyo, Hong Kong and Sydney
Stock equities was also under pressure as the Reserve Bank of Australia  reported about better-than-expected rise of consumer inflation in the second quarter, focusing the market’s attention back on the interest rates.
On Wednesday the statistics showed that Q2 consumer prices rose by 0.9%  in Australia, beating average forecast of increase by only 0.7%. Annually the prices gained by 3.6% against forecasted rise of 3.4%. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens said this week that inflation data will help determine a further direction of monetary policy.
As the yen strengthened against the U.S. dollar to the highest levels, Japanese exporters moved lower: Nintendo Co. lost 2%, Honda Motor Co. gave up 1.7%, and Toyota Motor Co. fell 1.2%.
Nissan Motor Co fell 1.9% ahead of its after-market earnings announcement.
Many Hong Kong-listed exporters suffer losses amid concern about how the U.S. debt situation: apparel group Esprit Holdings Ltd. lost 2.6%, Li & Fung Ltd. fell 1.5%, computer maker Lenovo Group Ltd. gave up 0.8%, and ports operator Cosco Pacific Ltd. ended 2.6% lower.
As for gainers, banking sector was among winners: Henderson Land Development Co. went up 1.1%, China Resources Land Ltd. rose by 1.5%, and  

European stock markets fell sharply Wednesday, pressured by poorly received earnings reports, a broker downgrade of the banking sector and concerns over the status of U.S. debt-ceiling negotiations.
On Wednesday UK released its CBI industrial order books balance, which missed analysts’ estimates. CPI preliminary from Germany also didn’t support the markets.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 index appeared under pressure by data, which showed U.S. durable-goods orders dropped in June. 
Swiss chemical group Clariant AG stood out as the biggest decliner in the Stoxx 600, plunging more than 14% in Zurich as its second-quarter net profit fell short of expectations. 
Another big loser, shares of telecom-equipment firm Alcatel-Lucent slumped almost 7% in Paris after a disappointing earnings report and outlook disclosed by peer Juniper Networks Inc. (-0.1%) late Tuesday. 
In France shares of automakers declined: Peugeot sank 7.6% as its reported of rising costs, Renault SA went down 3.2% and Michelin SA shed 2.2%. 
Also on the earnings front, shares of ArcelorMittal rose by 0.8% due to positive quarterly report.  
 
U.S. stocks plummeted down on average by 2% as ongoing worries over the U.S. debt ceiling weighed on investor sentiment and amid weak US statistics.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid aggravated the decline as hr said that it’s time Republicans “face facts” and agree on a compromise plan. But prolonged standoff in Washington over hiking the U.S. debt ceiling continued.
 Economy: According to the statistics, the durable goods orders declined by 2.1% in July, while analysts expected the drop by 0.3% after rising of 2.1% in May. The durable goods orders excluding transportation climbed by 0.1%, except defense sang by 1.8%.
Beige book prepared for the Aug 9 FOMC says "economic activity continued to grow; however, the pace has moderated in many Districts." Six nearest Eastern seaboard dists reported a slowdown; Atlanta and Richmond were unch; 4 Dists continued to grow modestly. (Prior book had 4 slower, 7 steady, 1 faster).
Companies: 
Dow industrials component Boeing (BA, Fortune 500) reported earnings per share that blew away expectations while it raised its outlook for the rest of the year. The shares rose less than by 1%.
Shares of Caterpillar (CAT), Competitors Deere (DE, Fortune 500) and Cummins (CMI, Fortune 500) lost 3%.
One sign of the increasing worries among investors is the VIX (VIX), also known as Wall Street's "fear gauge," which jumped by more than 13% on Wednesday alone. 
Amazon (AMZN, Fortune 500) shares rose 4% after the company reported its profits fell to $191 million last quarter, or 41 cents a share. Despite the profit drop, the online retailer's results surpassed forecasts.

07:15
Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3: Y79.00 (Jul 21 high) 

Resistance 2: Y78.70 (area  of Jul 22 and 26 high) 
Resistance 1: Y78.20 (Jul 27 high) 
Current price: Y77.76
Support 1:Y77.55 (Jul 27 low)  
Support 2:Y77.10 (Mar 17 low)  
Support 3:Y76.50 (Mar 16 low)  

Comments: the pair remains under pressure. The immediate support - Y77.55. Below losses are possible to Y77.10. The imediate resistance - Y78.20. Above growth is possible to Y78.70.

07:05
Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 2: Chf0.8180 (close price of the last week)

Resistance 2: Chf0.8090 (Jul 18 low)
Resistance 1: Chf0.8050 (Jul 27 low)
Current price: Chf0.8011
Support 1: Chf0.7990 (Jul 27 low)
Support 2: Chf0.7950 (psychological mark)
Support 3: Chf0.7900 (psychological mark)
Comments: essential changes hasn't occured. The immediate support - Chf0.7990. Below loss may extend to Chf0.7950. The immediate resistance Chf0.8050.  Above is  located Chf0.8090. 

06:07
Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.6470 (Jun 7 high)

Resistance 2: $ 1.6440 (Jun 14 and 27 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.6340 (session high)
Current price: $1.6325
Support 1 : $1.6310 (session low, Jul 27 low)
Support 2 : $1.6260 (Jul 22-25 low)
Support 3 : $1.6190 (38.2% FIBO $1.5780-$ 1.6440)
Comments: the pair is corrected after yesterday's growth. The immediate resistance - $1.6340. Above growth is possible to $1.6440. The immediate support - $1.6310. Below  decrease possible to $1.6260. 

05:56
Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.4540 (Jul 26-27 high)

Resistance 2: $ 1.4550 (Jul 21-22 high, low of american session on Jul 26)
Resistance 1: $ 1.4380 (session high)
Current price: $1.4363
Support 1 : $1.4320 (session low, Jul 22-25 low, support line from Jul 12)
Support 2 : $1.4270 (38.2 % FIBO $1.3840-$ 1.4540)
Support 3 : $1.4190 (50.0 % FIBO $1.3840-$ 1.4540)
Comments: the pair is consolidated after yesterday's falling. The immediate support - $1.4320. Below losses rae possible to $1.4270. The immediate resistance - $1.4380. Above growth is possible to $1.4550. 

05:53
Schedule for today, Thursday, Jul'28'2011:

07:55 Germany Unemployment (July) seasonally adjusted +3K -8K
07:55 Germany Unemployment rate (July) seasonally adjusted 7.0% 7.0%
09:00 EU(17) Economic sentiment index (July) 104.0 105.1
09:00 EU(17) Business climate indicator (July) 0.85 0.92
10:00 UK CBI retail sales volume balance (July) 4% -2%
12:30 USA Jobless claims (week to 23.07) 425K 418K
23:01 UK Gfk consumer confidence (July) -26 -25
23:30 Japan Nationwide CPI (June) - 0.1%
23:30 Japan Nationwide CPI (June) Y/Y - 0.3%
23:30 Japan Nationwide CPI ex fresh food (June) Y/Y 0.5% 0.6%
23:30 Japan Tokyo-area CPI (July) - -0.1%
23:30 Japan Tokyo-area CPI (July) Y/Y - -0.2%
23:30 Japan Tokyo-area CPI ex fresh food (July) Y/Y 0.2% 0.1%
23:30 Japan Unemployment (June) 4.6% 4.5%
23:30 Japan Household spending (June) real Y/Y -1.8% -1.9%
23:50 Japan Industrial output (June) preliminary 4.5% 6.2%
23:50 Japan Industrial output (June) preliminary Y/Y -1.2% -5.5%

02.08.2011
01.08.2011
29.07.2011
28.07.2011
27.07.2011
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