Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 28-06-2011.

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28.06.2011
18:52
DB: will not worry if there is a sub-50 mfg ISM reported on Jul 1; auto production will rebound ahead.
18:03
American focus:

The euro gained against the majority of its most-traded counterparts on speculation Greece’s parliament will approve an austerity package needed to ensure more financial aid and stave off the currency union’s first sovereign default.
The shared currency erased losses versus the dollar after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said policy makers are in “strong vigilance mode,” signaling they intend to raise interest rates next week. The dollar fell against most of its major peers as stocks and commodities rose.
“Most people expect a yes vote,” said Steven Englander, head of Group-of-10 currency strategy at Citigroup Inc. in New York. “The market has fully priced in an ECB hike, pretty much priced in a yes vote.”
The greenback extended its losses after a report showed confidence among U.S. consumers unexpectedly fell in June to a seven-month low.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 1 percent. The Thomson Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of raw materials increased for the first time in five days, climbing 1.2 percent.
The euro rose after Trichet’s comments at a press conference in Amsterdam. The ECB raised its benchmark rate in April for the first time in almost three years, lifting it by a quarter point to 1.25 percent.
“The ECB is moving ahead with tightening and trying to be as independent as it possibly can,” said Stephen Gallo, head of market analysis at Schneider Foreign Exchange in London. “It’s trying to show the markets that it’s trying to stay out of the situation and put as much burden on as they can on the politicians.”
Greek lawmakers vote tomorrow on the austerity package and vote the next day on a measure implementing it.

17:41
IMF: Board selected LaGarde as new managing director - to have 5y term beginning July 5.
17:33
Dow +117.35 at 12160.91, Nasdaq +31.14 at 2719.42, S&P +12.26 at 1292.12

Stocks remain in strong shape. That has put pressure on Treasuries. In turn, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note is back up near 3.00%. Treasuries could see some incresed volatility when results from an auction of 5-year Notes are released at the top of the hour. Today's auction comes on the heels of a 2-year Note offering yesterday that was met with relatively weak demand.

17:12
Conference Board: consumer confidence is very weak and points squarely at disappointing Q2 growth
16:50
EUR/JPY extends gains

The cross extends gains to a session high Y116.30. Next level on the topside of note is Y116.65/75, a break here to open Y117.20/30. Support seen at Y115.75/70.

15:56
Dow +112.43 at 12155.99, Nasdaq +26.08 at 2714.36, S&P +11.04 at 1291.14

Strong, broad-based buying has the stock market within reach of another 1% gain. Although it is early in the session, such a move would help fuel one of the stock market's best back-to-back performances in more than a month.
Strength was also broad in the prior session, but tech stocks were a primary source of leadership. Tech stocks are garnering considerable support once again; as a group, they are up 1.0%, but Monster Worldwide (MWW 14.75, +1.18) has been a top performer in the space. Still, tech's gain is only half of what the energy sector has achieved this morning. The energy sector is currently led by Halliburton (HAL 48.02, +1.79).

15:11
RBC: consumer confidance is "historically depressed" and indicating constrained consumption
14:29
Dow +89.35 at 12132.91, Nasdaq +19.28 at 2707.56, S&P +9.32 at 1289.42

US stock market opend hifher Tuesday. Energy stocks continue to extend their rally, having already up 1.8% amid a bounce by oil prices to almost $92 per barrel for a 1.5% gain.

14:15
EUR/GBP holds around session highs at stg0.8960/65 with a break here to open a move on toward stronger resistance at stg0.8975/80.
14:01
US: June Conference Bd consumer confidence 58.5 vs 61.7
13:49
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

EUR/USD $1.4095, $1.4100, $1.4135, $1.4195, $1.4250, $1.4270
USD/JPY Y80.00, Y80.30, Y81.00, Y81.50, Y81.65, Y81.70
EUR/JPY Y111.60, Y112.40, Y115.00, Y116.35
AUD/USD $1.0485, $1.0565, $1.0600
AUD/JPY Y86.20
NZD/USD $0.8065

13:36
EUR/USD back to the figure

EUR/USD printed high on $1.4330, but failed to break above again. rate back to $1.4305. Offers and stops mentioned above highs. Some German name's bids placed around $1.4250.


13:04
Before the bell: Focus on Greece

U.S. stocks were set to open little changed Tuesday amid Greek vote on austerity measures.


Economy: The Conference Board's consumer confidence survey for June will be released at 14:00 GMT. Economists are looking for consumer confidence to remain at 60.8.
Companies: Nike's (NKE, Fortune 500) stock jumped more than 4% in premarket trading, a day after the athletic shoe maker posted better-than-expected profit and sales.
Shares of GSV Capital Corp. (GSVC) climbed 7% in premarket trading, after disclosing Monday that it acquired 225,000 Facebook shares at $29.28 per share. Shares of GSV had surged 42% on Monday.
Shares of Macy's (M, Fortune 500) jumped 4% before the bell. The retailer announced Monday that it plans to add international shipping to 91 countries.

12:48
USD/CAD retreats. Rate currently holds around C$0.9851 area with stops below C$0.9840.
12:32
EUR/USD recovers

EUR/USD recovers again and currently holds around $1.4294 after breaking above light offers at $1.4280/85. Market speculates on the number of European banks that will pass stress tests. Resistance remains at $1.4330.

12:18
USD/JPY holds around Y80.84 and remains in a tight Y80.73-92 range. Initial support at Y80.70/65 and offers on the topside at Y80.95/00.
11:58
EU session review: Euro volatile ahead of Greek vote on austerity plan

Data released:
06:00     Germany     Import prices (May)    -0.6%    -0.5%    0.3%
06:00     Germany     Import prices (May) Y/Y    8.1%    8.8%    9.4%
06:00     Germany     Import prices excluding oil (May) Y/Y    5.1%    -    6.2%
08:30     UK     GDP (Q1) final    0.5%    0.5%    0.5%
08:30     UK     GDP (Q1) final Y/Y     1.6%    1.8%    1.8%
08:30     UK     Current account (Q1), bln     -9.4    -4.9    -12.9 (-10.5)
09:00     Italy     Business confidence (May)    100.5    100.5    101.3

The euro is quite volatile Tuesday before Greek lawmakers vote on austerity measures needed to prevent the currency union’s first sovereign default.
Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou called on lawmakers to obey their “patriotic conscience” as they began to debate a five-year budget plan yesterday.
The euro fell earlier as European Central Bank Executive Board member Juergen Stark said he doesn’t expect the international community to further finance Greece after July if the country doesn’t implement its austerity plan.
“There is only this one plan A” for Greece, Stark said in an interview with Die Welt newspaper.
The pound fell as Bank of England policy maker Adam Posen said the U.K. economy is at “little risk of inflation,” adding to market speculation that interest rates may stay at a record low in coming months.

EUR/USD printed session high on $1.4328, but failed to break above the resistance at $1.4330. As a result rate fell to $1.4335 and remains under pressure.

GBP/USD fell from session high on $1.5980/90 to the lows around $1.5912 before recovered to $1.5965.

USD/JPY holds within the  Y80.70/95 range.

The US Consumer confidence report is due to come at 14:00 GMT.

11:26
CHINA, PM Jiabao: Inflation is a problem of the world
11:15
CHINA, PM Wen Jiabao: China is confident in euro
11:00
EU focus: Euro rally stalled

The euro inched higher on Tuesday but stalled just below resistance level near the $1.4350 - $1.4360 area, as investors awaited to see if Greece's parliament will approve austerity steps that are critical for international aid that the country needs to avoid a default.
A focal point this week is a Greek parliamentary vote on austerity measures expected on Wednesday and Thursday. Without approval for the austerity measures, the European Union and International Monetary Fund say they will not disburse the fifth tranche of Greece's 110 billion-euro bailout programme.
Athens needs the aid to pay its bills next month and avert the euro zone's first sovereign default.

However, euro zone sources told that European Union officials are working on a contingency plan for Greece in case its parliament rejects the austerity programme and the country cannot receive the next instalment of EU/IMF emergency loans.
"The market seems to be taking its cues not so much from whether Greece's problems will be solved or not, but on whether or not there might be a default in the very near future," said Makoto Noji, senior bond and currency strategist for SMBC Nikko Securities. Even if Greece averts a default in the near term, its fiscal problems are unlikely to be resolved, Noji said. "But if there is no near-term default, hedge funds that trimmed positions in risky assets could put them back on," Noji said.

10:54
BOE's Tucker: Treshold for more stimulus for me would be high
  • economy turned out softer this year than I expected;
  • longer weakness persists - danger hte risks rising;
  • not happy inflation has been so high.
10:51
BOE's Tucker: Treshold for more stimulus for me would be high
  • economy turned out softer this year than I expected;
  • longer weakness persists - danger hte risks rising;
  • not happy inflation has been so high.
10:07
AUD/USD holds within a range

AUD/USD holds within the narrow range with focus on tomorrow's Japanese IP data. If the data is not as strong as expected it could soften the stance for global growth and see AUD/USD come under pressure. The rate is currently $1.0452.

09:30
FTSE 5,744 +0.38%, CAC 3,816 +0.52%, DAX 7,092 -0.23%
09:20
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

EUR/USD $1.4095, $1.4100, $1.4135, $1.4195, $1.4250, $1.4270
USD/JPY Y80.00, Y80.30, Y81.00, Y81.50, Y81.65, Y81.70
EUR/JPY Y111.60, Y112.40, Y115.00, Y116.35
AUD/USD $1.0485, $1.0565, $1.0600
AUD/JPY Y86.20
NZD/USD $0.8065

08:49
GBP/USD:

Drops back to $1.5960, from around $1.5985 level into data release, the rate reacting to the current account data, which narrowed less than forecast. GDP came in at the expected level. Cable support seen between $1.5955/50, more at the earlier low at $1.5940 with stronger interest noted between $1.5936/27.

08:30
UK DATA: Q1 GDP Unrevised at +0.5% q/q; revised down to +1.6% y/y
08:04
Asia Pacific stocks close:

Nikkei  9,649   +0.74%
Hang Seng 22,032 -0.04%
S&P/ASX   4,474  +0.28%
Shanghai Composite 2,759  +0.04%

08:02
Asian session: The euro fell

The euro fell against the dollar and yen, reversing earlier gains, before Greek lawmakers vote on budget cuts needed to prevent the currency union’s first default.
The 17-nation currency slid after the Die Welt newspaper cited European Central Bank Executive Board member Juergen Stark as saying he doesn’t expect the international community to finance Greece further after July if the country doesn’t implement its austerity plan. The won snapped a three-day decline after a report showed South Korea’s current account surplus widened. 
The yen rose on speculation exporters bought the currency after its decline to more than one-week low.
The euro earlier gained after France proposed a target of rolling over 70 percent of Greece’s debt. German Finance Ministry spokesman Martin Kreienbaum said in Berlin his government welcomes proposals from the private sector. German and French lenders are the biggest European holders of 

EUR/USD: the pair shown high in  $1.4330 area then decreased below a mark $1.4300.
GBP/USD: the pair decreased in $1.5960  area.
USD/JPY: the pair decreased in Y80.70  area. 

German June flash HICP data is expected, although no firm release time is yet available. 
UK data starts at 0830GMT, with the release of the third estimate of Q1 GDP and the Q1 Balance of Payments.

07:55
Forex: Monday's review

The euro strengthened amid optimism Greece’s parliament will approve austerity measures required to help avert the currency bloc’s first sovereign default.
Greek lawmakers start debating today the five-year, 78 billion-euro ($111 billion) package of budget cuts and asset sales that officials say is needed to receive a loan payment and future financing from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund.
The shared currency was also supported as Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said his country will keep investing in Europe’s sovereign bond market.
The pound strengthened on speculation the Bank of England may raise rates earlier than expected after the Bank for International Settlements said central banks need to start raising interest rates to control inflation.
New Zealand’s dollar slumped after a report showed the trade surplus narrowed in May more than forecast. 
The nation’s trade surplus was NZ$605 million ($485 million) in May compared with the median estimate of economists for a NZ$1 billion surplus.

EUR/USD: on results of yesterday's session the pair become stronger in $1.4290  area.
GBP/USD: the pair holds on $1.5901-$ 1.6010.
USD/JPY: on results of yesterday's session the pair grown in Y80.90  area. 

German June flash HICP data is expected, although no firm release time is yet available. 
UK data starts at 0830GMT, with the release of the third estimate of Q1 GDP and the Q1 Balance of Payments.

07:22
Stocks: Monday's review

Japanese stocks fell the most in more than a week ahead of a vote in Greece’s parliament that may forestall a European banking crisis and before a report expected to show slowing growth in U.S. consumer spending, dimming the outlook for export earnings.
Japanese shares have also declined on signs the U.S. economic recovery is slowing and amid a debt crisis in Greece that the International Monetary Fund said may “spill over,” hurting banks in the region that hold the country’s bonds.
Sony Corp. (6758) which sells about 20 percent of its PlayStation game consoles and other products in Europe, dropped 2.1 percent.
Toyota Motor Corp. (7203), the world’s biggest carmaker by sales, fell 2.3 percent.
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. (8306), the country’s biggest lender by market value, erased losses after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said capital requirement rules agreed to by international regulators are “positive” for Japan’s lenders.
Mitsui & Co., Japan’s second-largest trading company, dropped 1.1 percent to 1,346 yen.
Among stocks that rose, Tokyo Electric Power Co., operator of the crippled Fukushima Dai-Ichi power plant, climbed 2.6 percent to 316 yen. The Yomiuri newspaper reported the utility may sell two units as part of restructuring plans.
Nakabayashi Co., a maker of office equipment, soared by its upper daily limit of 29 percent to 221 yen, the biggest gain since at least June 1981.
European stocks closed little changed as Greek lawmakers debated austerity measures needed to secure more aid and stave off default.
Northumbrian Water Group Plc (NWG) soared 8 percent after Cheung Kong Infrastructure Holdings Ltd. said it may make a takeover offer for the U.K. utility.
United Utilities Plc, a rival U.K. water company, climbed 3.3 percent to 587.5 pence.
Niscayah AB jumped to a three-year high after agreeing to be bought by Stanley Black & Decker Inc.  Niscayah jumped 16 percent to 18.20 kronor after Stanley Black & Decker agreed to buy the Swedish company for about $1.2 billion to secure expansion in the market for electronic security systems.
Securitas AB (SECUB), which last month offered to acquire Niscayah through a share swap, advanced 1.8 percent to 62 kronor.
Akzo Nobel NV (AKZA) sank the most in 16 months after the world’s biggest paint maker forecast a drop in profit.
Danske Bank lost 5.2 percent to 88.60 kroner, Jyske Bank A/S retreated 3.1 percent to 191.5 kroner and Sydbank A/S fell 2.4 percent to 110 kroner.
Cable & Wireless Communications Plc (CWC) surged 5.3 percent to 39.52 pence. Chief Executive Officer Tony Rice bought 2.5 million shares in the phone company at 37.63 pence apiece before an investor day on July 1.
Stocks started off the week with solid gains, as strength in the technology sector boosted all three major indexes.
Adding to the tech sector's strength, Amazon (AMZN, Fortune 500) shares rose 4.5% after Morgan Stanley issued a bullish report on the company and added the tech giant to its "Best Ideas" list.
Companies: Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500) shares surged after the software maker announced a licensing deal, under which military contractor General Dynamics will pay royalties for developing products using Android software.
General Dynamics' Itronix division makes rugged tablets and mobile devices using Android. And although Google (GOOG, Fortune 500) owns that software -- Microsoft has already sued several companies using Android, claiming it infringes on their patents.
Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) said 3,400 of the customers who were hacked in its recent data breach suffered about $2.7 million in losses. The news came after the company said last week it discovered that more than 360,000 accounts had been hacked.
Shares of Chinese company LDK Solar (LDK) surged 4.8%, after the company said it plans to buy back $110 million of its American depositary shares.
Appliance maker Stanley Black & Decker (SWK, Fortune 500) made a $1.2 billion offer to buy Swedish information technology company Niscayah Group. Shares of Stanley Black & Decker rose 0.3%.
Nike (NKE, Fortune 500) shares surged about 4% after the bell, following an earnings report that surpassed Wall Street forecasts. The athletic apparel maker said it earned $1.24 per share in its fiscal fourth quarter, crushing analyst estimates for earnings of $1.16 per share.
Nike's revenue rose 10% to $20.9 billion during the quarter.
Economy: Personal income rose 0.3% in May, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That was slightly lower than the 0.4% economists had forecast, and follows a 0.4% rise in April.
Spending was unchanged in May, after ticking up 0.4% in the previous month. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com were looking for spending to have edged up 0.1% last month.

06:57
Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3: Y82.20 (high of May) 

Resistance 2: Y81.80 (May 31 high) 
Resistance 1: Y81.00/10 (Jun  3, 15, 16 and 27 high) 
Current price: Y80.75
Support 1:Y80.70 (session low)  
Support 2:Y80.40 (Jun 27 low)  
Support 3:Y80.00 (Jun 17-20 and 22 low)  

Comments: the pair decreased. The immediate  support - Y80.70. Below losses are possible to Y80.40. The immediate resistance - Y81.00/10. Above growth is possible to Y81.80. 

06:54
Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.8420 (МА (200) for Н1)

Resistance 2: Chf0.8400 (area of Jun 24 high)
Resistance 1: Chf0.8370 (resistance line from Jun 20)
Current price: Chf0.8347
Support 1: Chf0.8320 (Jun 27 low)
Support 2: Chf0.8300 (psychological mark)
Support 3: Chf0.8200 (psychological mark)
Comments: the pair holds in Chf0.8350 area. The immediate support - Chf0.8320. Below loss may extend to Chf0.8300. The immediate  resistance Chf0.8370. Above is located  Chf0.8400. 

06:44
Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.6070 (area of  Jun 23 high and Jun 16 low)

Resistance 2: $ 1.6050 (area of Jun 24 high and 38.2 % FIBO $1.6260-$ 1.5935)
Resistance 1: $ 1.6000 (session high)
Current price: $1.5968
Support 1 : $1.5960 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.5910 (Jun 27 low)
Support 3 : $1.5890 (61.8 % FIBO $1.5340-$ 1.6750)

Comments: the pair decreased. The immediate support $1.5960. Below decrease is  possible to $1.5910. The immediate resistance - $1.6000. Anove growth is possible to $1.6050.  

06:23
Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.4440 (Jun 22 high)

Resistance 2: $ 1.4350 (support line from Jun 7)
Resistance 1: $ 1.4330 (session high)
Current price: $1.4290
Support 1 : $1.4280 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.4170 (low of american session on Jun 27)
Support 3 : $1.4100 (support line from May 23, Jun 27 low)

Comments: the pair shown high on $1.4330 then receded. The immediate support $1,4280. Below losses are possible to $1.4170. The immediate resistance $1.4330. Above growth is possible to $1,4350. 

06:01
GERMANY: GfK July consumer confidence 5.7
05:48
Schedule for today, Tuesday, Jun 28'2011:

06:00 Germany Import prices (May) -0.5% 0.3%

06:00 Germany Import prices (May) Y/Y 8.8% 9.4%
06:00 Germany Import prices excluding oil (May) Y/Y - 6.2%
08:30 UK GDP (Q1) final 0.5% 0.5%
08:30 UK GDP (Q1) final Y/Y 1.8% 1.8%
08:30 UK Current account (Q1), bln -4.9 -10.5
12:00 Germany CPI (June) preliminary 0.1% 0.0%
12:00 Germany CPI (June) preliminary Y/Y 2.3% 2.3%
12:00 Germany HICP (June) preliminary Y/Y 2.5% 2.4%
14:00 USA Consumer confidence (June) 61.5 60.8
23:50 Japan Industrial output (May) preliminary 5.5% 1.6%
23:50 Japan Industrial output (May) preliminary Y/Y -6.3% -13.6%

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