Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 24-05-2019.

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24.05.2019
17:03
U.S.: Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count, May 797
15:09
Major market movers in the week ahead – Danske Bank

Analysts at Danske Bank note that next week will be fairly slow in terms of US data and we should get a better sense of how resilient the US economy is to the global slowdown the following week, with ISM manufacturing and the May jobs report coming out.

  • We also look forward to hearing more from multiple FOMC members.
  • Results from this week’s European Parliament election should ensure overall pro-EU sentiment in the Parliament but the political centre could be more fragmented.
  • Brexit has returned to the spotlight, with GBP falling and the likelihood of a negative scenario increasing and a leadership contest in the Conservative party coming up.
  • The setback in the trade war is set to take its toll on Chinese PMI and, rather than a recovery, we now expect it to move sideways at a quite low level in coming months.
  • In Sweden, we expect data do deteriorate, with weak GDP figures and manufacturing confidence declining. In contrast, in Norway and Denmark, we expect data – including GDP figures – to hold up well.

15:06
Modest weakening in the U.S. durable goods made worse by aircraft - Wells Fargo Securities

Analysts at Wells Fargo Securities noted that durable goods fell 2.1% in April, with a 25.1% plunge in civilian aircraft orders weighing on the headline. 

  • Durable goods orders fell 2.1% in April. This was not a huge surprise. Of the 66 economists who submitted a forecast to Bloomberg for durable goods orders this month, none had expected an increase. Boeing’s ongoing challenges with its 737 MAX family of aircraft were expected to manifest themselves in today’s report and were certainly evident in the 25.1% decline in civilian aircraft orders. That said, the weakness reaches beyond just aircraft. It is a matter of speculation as to when Boeing will have a fix in place for the 737 MAX and when shipments pick back up again. Most aerospace analysts expect this to be a matter of months, at which point we would expect to see headline durable goods orders boosted by aircraft for a few months.
  • It would not be accurate however to say that the weakness here is all aircraftrelated as a number of other categories posted declines as well. Orders for motor vehicles and parts, now down for the third time in the first four months of the year, posted a decline of 3.4% in April—the second largest one month drop in bookings for autos in the past four years. In a separate report, sales to dealers from auto makers slowed to an annualized pace of just 16.4 million in April; that too is the second slowest pace in the past four years.
  • Other key areas are also reflecting some of the slowing indicated by the April drop in the ISM index and in some of the regional Fed surveys. Notably, primary and fabricated metals have both experienced declines in two out of the past three months.
  • Recall that these data are for April and do not reflect the recent escalation in the trade war, which lifted tariffs to 25% on roughly $200 billion of goods coming in from China. The precise timing of the new higher rate will be phased in throughout May, but effective June 1, imports on affected goods from China will be subject to the higher rate.
  • In addition to the pronounced volatility in global financial markets, the tariffs have been identified in the ISM report and in corporate earnings announcements as a factor negatively impacting profitability as well as creating supply chain headaches. Whether businesses are taking on additional inventory in anticipation of higher future costs or because they are concerned about product availability is unclear, but an inventory build is clearly under way. The inventory-to-shipments ratio rose to 1.67—the highest since July 2017.
  • With non-defense capital goods shipments having fallen in four out of the past five months, including a 3.0% drop in April, equipment spending is poised to decline in the second quarter.

14:06
BoC to keep its policy interest rate unchanged - Rabobank

Rabobank's analysts are expecting the Bank of Canada (BoC) to keep its policy interest rate unchanged at 1.75% on May 29.

  • This is unanimously expected by the 21 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg (including ourselves) and CAD OIS implies almost no chance of a move in either direction at the May meeting.
  • Although a more cautious tone has been adopted by the Bank, the door was left open for rate hikes. Rather than being dovish, we argue that the Bank has adopted a holding stance.
  • We maintain the view that the BoC will not be able to raise rates again this cycle and instead we see the Bank cutting rates in 2020 Q2.

13:48
Belgium business confidence weakens in May

National Bank of Belgium (NBB) reported on Friday its latest business survey revealed Belgium business confidence edged down to -3.6 in May from -3.2 in the previous month. That marked the worst reading since March 2016.

Economists had forecast the reading o come in at -2. 

According to the survey, confidence weakened among traders (to -8.1 in May from -3.6 in April), manufacturers (to -6.6 from -6.1) and service providers (to 3.4 from 5.7). 

On the contrary, confidence improved for constructors (to 4.0 from 0.5).

13:00
Belgium: Business Climate, May -3.6 (forecast -2.0)
12:51
UK Conservative MP Boris Johnson: We will leave EU on Oct 31, deal or no deal

  • Says the will of the people "can and must" prevail on Brexit
  • The way to get a good deal is prepare for a no-deal scenario
  • Have to be prepared to walk away from the table to get a good deal
  • I don't want to impose tariffs on BMWs
  • I don't want or think no deal will be the outcome

12:43
U.S. durable goods orders fall slightly more than expected in April

The U.S. Commerce Department reported on Friday that the durable goods orders fell 2.1 percent m-o-m in April, following a revised 1.7 percent m-o-m gain in March (originally a 2.7 percent m-o-m advance).

Economists had forecast a 2.0 percent m-o-m decrease.

According to the report, transportation equipment (-5.9 percent m-o-m) drove the decrease. Meanwhile, orders for durable goods excluding transportation were unchanged m-o-m, following a revised 0.5 percent m-o-m drop in April (originally an increase of 0.4 percent m-o-m) and missing market expectations of a 0.2 percent m-o-m gain.

Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, dropped 0.9 percent m-o-m in April, after increasing 0.3 percent m-o-m in March (revised down from +1.0 percent m-o-m previously reported). Economists had forecast core capital goods orders declining 0.3 percent m-o-m in April.

Shipments of these core capital goods were unchanged in April after a revised 0.6 percent m-o-m fall in the prior month (originally a 0.1 percent m-o-m decrease).

12:30
U.S.: Durable Goods Orders , April -2.1% (forecast -2%)
12:30
U.S.: Durable goods orders ex defense, April -2.5% (forecast -2%)
12:30
U.S.: Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation , April 0% (forecast 0.2%)
12:23
Export weakness impacting Eurozone's economy – ABN AMRO

Nick Kounis, head of financial markets research at ABN AMRO, notes that two bellwether business surveys - the PMIs and Germany’s Ifo - provided mixed news about the Eurozone's economy in May.

  • To start with the good news, it looks as if manufacturing and exports are bottoming out, following the sharp deterioration in momentum over the last few months. The bad news is that there are signs that the weakness in external sector is having an adverse impact on the domestic economy.
  • The eurozone composite PMI edged up to 51.6 in May from 51.5 in April, a level consistent with economy stuck in sluggish growth territory (GDP growth in the 0.1-0.2% region).  This supports our views that the acceleration in the official GDP growth data seen in Q1 is unlikely to be sustained.
  • The bad news is that the service sector PMI dropped (to 52.5 in May from 52.8 in April), while the slowdown in new business in that sector fell more noticeably (51.6 from 52.9).
  • Germany’s Ifo business climate indicator seemed to confirm these trends. The overall indicator dropped (to 97.9 from 99.2), driven by a sharp fall in current conditions, though the expectations index – a better indicator for GDP growth – stabilised. The sector breakdown showed manufacturing stable at low levels, but the services index fell to the lowest level since November 2014.

11:55
China envoy to U.S. Cui Tiankai says that U.S. allegations on Huawei are "groundless"

  • Says what is happening to Huawei is rather unusual
  • Says that talks must be based on mutual respect
  • says no official talks scheduled between Trump and Xi

11:32
China's NDRC deputy Ning: We are able to minimize the impact of the trade war on the economy

  • Chinese economy can maintain healthy, steady and sustainable growth

11:27
China's industry vice-minister Wang: China will increase support, subsidies for tech firms - SCMP

The South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported the Chinese vice-minister for industry and information technology Wang Zhijun said at a press conference in Beijing that the recent moves by Washington to stymie Chinese firms would help them to reduce their reliance on foreign technologies and that their efforts to do so would receive the government’s full backing.

“Recently, the US has taken a series of measures to crack down on Chinese companies for political purposes,” he said.“[But] it is, in fact, a good thing for Chinese firms. China’s manufacturing upgrade requires a breakthrough in key and core technologies, [and] we need to speed up the process.”

Wang also added the government would play a greater role in formulating strategy and increase its support for technology companies through bigger subsidies for research and development, and better protection of their intellectual property.

“We will strengthen the strategic guidance at the national level, devote more resources to achieving a breakthrough in core technologies, and create a market environment for fair competition,” he said. “At the same time, the government will increase its financial support for basic research … and encourage companies to devote more resources to it.”

11:13
UK Conservative Party: Nominations for new leader will end in the week of June 10
11:11
U.S. durable goods orders likely to drop 3.0% in April – TDS

TD Securities' analysts are forecasting the U.S. durable goods orders to drop 3.0% m/m in April, giving back part of its strong 2.6% gain in March.

  • A large decline in the nondefense aircraft segment (driven by Boeing woes) and a drop in vehicles orders are likely to drag the headline measure lower. We also pencil in a -0.4% m/m retreat in durable goods ex-transportation and a larger -0.8% slide in core capex orders.

10:56
Moody's: UK PM May's resignation raises the odds of a no-deal Brexit

  • Uncertainty around Brexit is clearly credit negative
  • May's departure amplifies the uncertainty around Brexit

10:35
New Zealand posts modest trade surplus in April - Westpac

Michael Gordon, an analyst at Westpac, notes that New Zealand's economy recorded a modest $433m trade surplus in April.

  • The result was close to expectations, though we saw some risk of a lower number as payback for the surprisingly large $824m surplus in March (which itself was revised down from $922m).
  • April is usually at or near the seasonal peak for the trade balance. In seasonally adjusted terms, the country recorded a $348m deficit in April, after a $75m surplus in March.
  • Exports were down 7.8% in seasonally adjusted terms, reversing most of the upward spike in March.
  • Seasonally adjusted imports were flat for the month. Petroleum imports rose, reflecting the recent lift in world oil prices. Imports of capital equipment were weaker.

10:22
UK retail sales fall sharply in May - CBI

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) reported on Friday its latest survey of 90 firms, of which 42 were retailers, showed retail sales volume balance fell sharply to -27 in May from +13 in April, marking the fastest contraction since October 2017.

Economist had forecast the reading to come in at +8.

The report notes, however, that the sales volumes are expected to improve in June to +7.

According to the report, orders placed on suppliers slumped in the year to May (to -41), and are expected to fall again in June albeit at a slower pace (to -8). Conditions for retailers have further deteriorated with investment intentions for the year ahead (-65) reaching their lowest in survey history (since 1983). Employment also declined on a year ago, for the tenth quarter running and at the fastest pace since August 2009. Overall, respondents expect business conditions to remain broadly stable over the next three months, matching expectations in February.

Non-store retailing was the only positive contributor to this month’s headline figure (+49), while recreational goods were flat (0). However, sales dropped in other sub-sectors, including footwear & leather (-100), furniture & carpets (-50) and hardware & DIY (-25).

Growth in internet sales volumes grew at a faster pace (+38) compared to last month (+28), albeit with growth still below its long-run average (+47). Internet sales are expected to increase at a similar pace in June (+36)

Anna Leach, CBI Deputy Chief Economist, notes that May’s survey paints a dismal picture of business conditions for retailers, who face a grim combination of tough trading conditions, Brexit uncertainty and a burdensome outdated business rates regime, which have collectively pushed investment intentions to a record low. 

10:00
United Kingdom: CBI retail sales volume balance, May -27 (forecast 8)
09:39
Japan more downbeat on growth, keeps recovery view in nod to tax hike plan

Japan's government downgraded its assessment of the economy on Friday but maintained the view it was recovering, suggesting that escalating U.S.-China trade tensions have yet to hit growth enough to put off this year's scheduled sales tax hike.

"Japan's economy is recovering at a moderate pace, while weakness in exports and industrial production continues," the government said in a monthly economic report for May.

That was a slightly bleaker view than last month, when it said the economy was recovering moderately despite "some" weakness in exports and output.

The government also cut its view on output and capital expenditure, nodding to the growing pain from U.S.-Sino trade tensions and slowing Chinese demand. But it stuck to the view that domestic demand remains strong enough to moderate some of the pain from overseas headwinds, helping keep Japan's recovery intact.

09:19
UK PM Theresa May says that she is to step down on 7 June

  • I've done my best to implement Brexit vote

  • I've done everything I can to convince MPs to back my deal

  • It is a matter of deep regret that I have not delivered Brexit

  • Will continue to serve as prime minister until new leader is elected

  • Leadership contest will begin in the following week after her resignation

  • Consensus on Brexit can only be reached if all sides are willing to compromise

09:00
GBP/USD remains under pressure – Commerzbank

In view of Axel Rudolph, analyst at Commerzbank, GBP/USD pair remains under pressure and has reached the 2016-2019 uptrend at 1.2607.

“We look for this to hold the downside but acknowledge that it is the last defence for the 1.2444 December 2018 low. Minor resistance comes in at the 1.2772 February low and the 1.2865 April low. Immediate downside pressure will be maintained while no rise above the 200 day moving average at 1.2955 is seen. Next up is the May 10 high at 1.3048. Only if this level were to be exceeded, would we look for the 1.3185/97 April and current May highs to be retested.”

08:46
UK retail sales remained unchanged in April

According to the report from Office for National Statistics, the quantity bought was flat (0.0%) in April 2019 when compared with the previous month, with growths in clothing, non-store retailing and fuel offset by falls in all other main sectors. Economists had expected a 0.3% decrease.

In the three months to April 2019, the quantity of goods bought (volume) in retail sales increased by 1.8% when compared with the previous three months, with strong growth in non-store retailing, which reached a record high of 9.4%. Online retailers selling clothing items were the driver to this growth, with the warm weather helping to boost sales.

When compared with the previous year, the quantity bought in April 2019 increased by 5.2%, with growth across all sectors except household goods, which fell by 4.5%.

In April 2019, online retailing accounted for 18.7% of total retailing compared with 17.7% in April 2018, with an overall growth of 10.1% when compared with the same month a year earlier.

08:30
United Kingdom: Retail Sales (MoM), April 0% (forecast -0.3%)
08:30
United Kingdom: Retail Sales (YoY) , April 5.2% (forecast 4.6%)
08:14
Italy’s Deputy Prime Minister Salvini says EU fiscal rules must be changed

Italy’s Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini said its right-wing League party wanted to change European Union fiscal rules to push through tax cuts because it would not want a deficit overshoot that lifted debt costs.

“The League’s goal is to change EU rules to be able to lower taxes”, Salvini told.

Salvini said he was ready to discuss the issue with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel after an EU vote on Sunday from which he expects the League to come out as the strongest party in Italy and Europe.

Last week Salvini said Italy could break EU fiscal rules and increase its public debt in order to spur job creation.

07:59
Spain's producer price inflation slows marginally in April

Data from the statistical office INE showed that Spain's producer price inflation slowed slightly in April.

Producer price inflation came in at 2.3 percent in April, down from 2.4 percent in March.

Excluding energy, producer price inflation rose slightly to 0.3 percent from 0.2 percent a month ago.

Month-on-month, producer prices increased 0.6 percent, in contrast to a 0.3 percent drop in March.

Among components, producer prices of capital and intermediate goods gained 0.9 percent, each, from last year. Energy prices surged 7 percent, while consumer goods prices dropped 0.5 percent.

07:39
Doubts over health of global economy – Danske Bank

According to analysts at Danske Bank, yesterday, PMI releases in advanced economies cast doubt about the outlook for the global economy.

“Most severe was the slump in the US, where both the manufacturing and service PMIs dropped sharply. While it is not a big surprise that US manufacturing is not immune to the weakening global economic environment (global value chains), the service sector slowdown is more surprising given the strength of the US labour market. The Japanese and German PMIs also surprised on the downside while the French PMI was a rare light of hope. The weakening of the PMIs comes amid the significant uncertainty about trade relations between China and US triggered by the renewed trade dispute between the two countries over the past month. The weak signs from the leading global economies led to a sizeable sell-off in global equity markets.”

07:19
President Trump says 'dangerous' Huawei could be included in U.S.-China trade deal

President Donald Trump said U.S. complaints against Huawei Technologies Co Ltd might be resolved within the framework of a U.S.-China trade deal, while at the same time calling the Chinese telecommunications giant “very dangerous.”

Washington last week effectively banned U.S. firms from doing business with Huawei, the world’s largest telecoms network gear maker, citing national security concerns.

“You look at what they’ve done from a security standpoint, from a military standpoint, it’s very dangerous,” Trump said in remarks at the White House. “If we made a deal, I could imagine Huawei being possibly included in some form or some part of it.”

Trump predicted a swift end to the trade war with China, although no high-level talks have been scheduled between the two countries since the last round of negotiations ended in Washington two weeks ago.

Trump also said he will meet with China's President Xi Jinping when they attend the G20 meeting next month in Japan.

06:59
RBA to cut the cash rate to 0.75% by November - Westpac

Bill Evans, chief economist at Westpac, points out that Westpac is now forecasting three cuts in 2019 in June; August and November to push the cash rate from 1.5% to 0.75% and to hold at that level through 2020.

“Our forecasts for employment; wages growth; economic growth ; inflation and conditions in the housing market  are consistent with the need for policy to ease through the full course of 2019, not to go on hold as early as August. We see the unemployment rate drifting up to 5.4% by year’s end; economic growth at 2.2% for 2019; underlying inflation at 1.4%; and the housing market still weak although approaching stability. That means that the June and August cuts should be supported by a further cut in November. Looking into 2020 we expect that the case for policy easing could still be apparent but as rates go lower and time passes the option to use QE will become more attractive.”

06:41
Politics amongst market movers today – Danske Bank

Danske Bank analysts point out that after 'Super Thursday' yesterday brought another set of subdued PMI data on both sides of the Atlantic, markets are in for a more quiet day on the data front today.

“EU parliament elections continue to take place today in Ireland and Czech Republic. Results will however only be announced when voting in all EU countries has closed on Sunday evening. In the UK, Theresa May is today expected to announce timetable for her resignation as U.K. Conservative Party leader and prime minister after the backlash over her Brexit plans. In the US, preliminary core capex for April is due out. Core capex has softened recently but remains at a high level and we expect investments to continue to increase over this year.”

06:21
China is driving growth in Asia’s real estate market despite trade war headwinds - JLL report

Real estate markets in Asia-Pacific grew at a record-breaking pace in the first quarter of this year — thanks in part to China and despite a global decline, according to real estate consultancy JLL.

The region recorded a new first-quarter high of $45 billion in real estate transaction volumes, according the company’s Global Capital Flows report for the first quarter of 2019.

That’s a 14% increase compared to a year ago — outperforming the Americas, as well as Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA), the JLL report showed.

“Driving this performance was China, where quarterly investment surged to an all-time high of US$17 billion due to an increase in cross-border capital inflows and large-scale transaction activity,” said the report.

Japan, Australia and Hong Kong saw a fall in investment volumes, the report found. But other strong-performing real estate markets in the region — such as South Korea and Singapore — managed to offset that decline and push the overall performance of the region up, it said.

06:03
UK: Retail sales likely to gain 0.7% in April - TDS

Analysts at TD Securities point out that in the UK session, retail sales are released for April and will be a key economic release for the day.

“We look for a gain of 0.7% m/m (consensus: -0.3%) as consumer continue to look through any Brexit uncertainty. Visa spending data released earlier in the month suggest further upside risks to our forecast.”

05:59
China says more efforts should be made to stabilise and improve trade

China's commerce ministry said on Friday that more efforts should be made to achieve the goal of stabilising trade while improving its quality, adding that the trade environment is growing more uncertain and challenging.

The domestic economy still faces downward pressure and some structural issues remain to be resolved, the ministry said in a statement summarizing the foreign trade trends for this year.

The statement made no mention of the United States or China's trade disputes with it.

05:29
Options levels on friday, May 24, 2019 EURUSD GBPUSD

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1317 (4267)

$1.1280 (2956)

$1.1251 (1787)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1181

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1152 (7864)

$1.1121 (4270)

$1.1083 (3978)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date June, 7 is 119607 contracts (according to data from May, 23) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (9031);


GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2913 (592)

$1.2829 (373)

$1.2762 (603)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2661

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2607 (4068)

$1.2582 (1720)

$1.2555 (2401)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 7 is 40208 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3450 (3277);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date June, 7 is 40024 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2700 (4068);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.00 versus 1.00 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 23

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

04:31
Japan: All Industry Activity Index, m/m, March -0.4% (forecast -0.2%)
00:15
Currencies. Daily history for Thursday, May 23, 2019
Pare Closed Change, %
AUDUSD 0.68997 0.29
EURJPY 122.576 -0.38
EURUSD 1.11823 0.27
GBPJPY 138.751 -0.66
GBPUSD 1.26585 -0.01
NZDUSD 0.65218 0.42
USDCAD 1.3471 0.27
USDCHF 1.00306 -0.6
USDJPY 109.608 -0.65

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