Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 20-12-2010.

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20.12.2010
19:47
OIL:

Gains have extended to $0.85, trading at $88.87. Dennis Gartman of TGL observed earlier; "Crude rallied sharply from $81 to $90 and all it can do is correct by going sideways."

19:35
EUR/USD holds above $1.3100

Light flows as the EUR/USD lifts to $1.3125 area, remaining shy of the early afternoon high at $1.3130 but still able to hold above $1.3100 though with US yields firming again, a potential dollar positive. Breach of the 200d ma at $1.3104 seen as a significant development on the day but needs to be sustained to be more meaningful.

18:58
GBP/USD holds above lows

GBP/USD recovered to $1.5519 area now after a steep slide earlier found a base at $1.5475 area, the skid lower erasing bid interest ahead of $1.5500 before respecting reported bids at $1.5480/70. Flows not especially notable, a trader says.

18:37
Dow -12.53 at 11479.38, Nasdaq +9.12 at 2223.81, S&P +3.65 at 1247.56

It's been a back-and-forth day so far, with the early slide off the open resulting in limited losses mid-morning, followed by a recent bounce that has taken stocks back to their opening highs. Energy, financials and consumer disretionary stocks are outperforming, while health care and consumer staples sectors are underperforming.

Today's choppy action is likely the start of what will be a choppy remainder of 2010, with many participants closing their books for the year and taking vacation around the holidays. This should result in a low-volume trading environment, with few scheduled catalysts of interest. As such, the market is likely to trade on headlines and currency fluctuations.

18:11
US focus: Euro falls a second day on concern region's crisis to spread; Dollar gains

The euro weakened on speculation some European nations will struggle to raise funds amid the region’s debt crisis after rating companies downgraded the creditworthiness of Ireland and considered additional cuts.
The single currency depreciated, falling to two-week lows against the dollar and the yen as Moody’s Investors Service downgraded two Dublin-based lenders to junk status.

The Swiss franc climbed to a euro-era record, appreciating 1.1% to 1.2641. Against the dollar it appreciated 0.3% to 0.9655.
The Swiss National Bank last week held the three-month Libor target rate at 0.25% in an attempt to keep a lid on the currency. The franc’s strength against the euro has threatened the country’s export-led recovery.
“Since Ireland has kicked off the new bout of tension, it is deemed as the most regional safe-haven currency play,” Derek Halpenny, European head of currency research at Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd.. “The concern in Europe related to budget deficits is something that Switzerland doesn’t have to deal with.”
The dollar was boosted against the euro by the demand for safety and optimism the world’s largest economy is improving.
The Commerce Department will report Dec. 22 that the U.S. economy grew at a 2.8% annual rate during the third quarter, up from its initial estimate of a 2.5% pace, according to the median of a economists.
Exchange-rates for Australia, Canada and New Zealand, all nations whose economies are tied to commodities, have appreciated at least 20% since the start of 2009 as their central banks boosted interest rates to curb inflation from rising prices of their raw-materials exports.
Surveys of strategists and economists show none of the so-called commodity currencies are likely to strengthen next year.
“The commodity currencies are at extremes,” said Ken Dickson, a money manager at Standard Life Investments. “The Aussie dollar is fully valued. The upside is limited and we would not be advocating long positions.”

18:01
USD/JPY recovers

USD/JPY holds Y83.80 as the pair recovers off morning lows at Y83.64, flows muted. Bids remain from Y83.65 down to Y83.50 while exporter offers will appear on any foray above Y84.00, promising rangey trading ahead.

17:24
OIL: Holds slight gains, is up $0.25 at $88.27 and in the upper reaches of the day's $87.26/88.75 session range.
17:01
Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3:Y86.40            
Resistance 2:Y85.90           
Resistance 1:Y84.50
Current price: Y83.72
Support 1:Y83.50         
Support 2:Y82.80         
Support 3:Y82.30        

Comments: rate continues to hold within the narrow reange. Support is around Y83.50 (Dec 15 lows). Below losses may extend to Y82.80 (Dec 14 lows). Resistance is near Dec 15/17 highs at Y84.40/50. Next target is near Y85.90 (Sep high), then - at Y86.40 (Aug 13 high).

16:49
Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.9920
Resistance 2: Chf0.9870               
Resistance 1: Chf0.9720
Current price: Chf0.9637
Support 1: Chf0.9630
Support 2: Chf0.9560/40
Support 3: Chf0.9460

Comments: Rate remains near session lows - initial support at Chf0.9630. Stronger level at Chf0.9560 (Friday lows). There is no major barriers doqn to Oct lows at Chf0.9460.  If rate back above Chf0.9720 (session high, Dec 17 high) the rate may rise up to Chf0.9870 (also 61.8% of Chf1.0070 - Chf0.9560). Further resistance is near Chf0.9920 (Dec 08 high).

16:25
Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3:$1.5760
Resistance 2:$1.5650
Resistance 1:$1.5550
Current price: $1.5507
Support 1: $1.5470/50
Support 2: $1.5340                 
Support 3: $1.5200

Comments: Rate remains under pressure with no major changes in tech. Initial support comes at session/Friday lows around $1.5470/50. Further support is at $1.5340 (Sep 14 lows) and stronger - at $1.5200 (Sep 07 lows). If correction comes the target is on $1.5550 (50% of Friday's decline). Above there is a room for a rise up to $1.5650/60 (Dec 17 highs), and then - to $1.5760.

16:13
Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3:$1.3360
Resistance 2:$1.3280
Resistance 1:$1.3180
Current price: $1.3098
Support 1:$1.3060
Support 2: $1.2970
Support 3: $1.2710

Comments: Euro continues to go down with support comes at $1.3060 (Dec 02 lows). Stronger support is around Nov 30 - Dec 01 lows at $1.2970. Break under targets Sep 06 highs on $1.2710. Back above $1.3180 will extend correction to $1.3280 and then - to a stronger resistance at $1.3360 (Dec 17 highs).

15:18
EU: Consumer confidence, dec -11.0
13:56
European session review: The euro weakened on speculation European nations will struggle to raise funds after rating companies downgraded the creditworthiness of Ireland and threatened additional cuts.


The single currency depreciated versus 14 of 16 major counterparts, falling to two-week lows against the dollar and the yen, as the European Central Bank warned of “concerns” about Irish legislation to fix its banking system. The Swiss franc rose to a record against the euro as investors sought a refuge from the sovereign-debt crisis. Data this week may show U.S. gross domestic product grew at a faster pace than estimated earlier.

“Sentiment is clearly bearish for the euro,” said Stephan Maier, a foreign-exchange strategist at UniCredit SpA in Milan. “The ratings risk is clearly pointing to still weaker ratings in the euro periphery. We expect as well the final reading of the third-quarter U.S. GDP so this will favor the dollar.”

The euro slipped 0.1 percent to $1.3171 as of 07:05 a.m. in New York, after declining to $1.3125, the weakest since Dec. 2. The common currency fell 0.4 percent to 110.35 yen, from 110.77 yen, the lowest since Dec. 7. The U.S. currency traded at 83.82 yen from 83.78 yen.

Moody’s Investors Service lowered Ireland’s credit rating by five levels to Baa1 on Dec. 17, the day after it placed Greece on review for possible downgrade. Irish bonds fell. Standard & Poor’s put Belgium on negative watch last week.

The cost to insure French government debt trebled this year to about 102 basis points on Dec. 17, approaching the record 105 basis points reached on Nov. 30, according to data provider CMA.

Credit-default swaps tied to the French bonds imply a rating of Baa1, seven steps below its actual top ranking of Aaa at Moody’s, according to the New York-based firm’s capital markets research group.

Data from the Commerce Department on Dec. 22 will show U.S. gross domestic product expanded at a 2.8 percent annual pace in the third quarter, quicker than the 2.5 percent estimate published last month. Consumer spending rose 0.5 percent in November after a 0.4 percent increase in October, a separate survey showed before the Dec. 23 report.

“The U.S. dollar will track higher this week as market forecasts for the economic-growth revisions and personal- spending reports are a bit underdone,” said Joseph Capurso, a Sydney-based currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, the nation’s largest lender. “Overlay that with ongoing concerns, downgrades and the like in Europe and it’s difficult to see the euro climb higher.”

The Korean won touched a three-week low against the dollar as military tensions with the North damped demand for the nation’s assets and after the government proposed tighter curbs on capital flows.

A levy is planned for foreign-currency borrowing by banks, the government said yesterday. South Korea today commenced a live-firing drill on Yeonpyeong Island, a month after North Korea shelled the island close to the disputed sea border off the peninsula’s west coast, killing four people.

“Geo-political tensions from the Korean region have popped up again this morning which has served to keep the ‘risk trade’ on the back burner,” Tim Waterer, a foreign-exchange dealer at CMC Markets in Sydney, wrote in an e-mailed note.

The won dropped to as low as 1,172.25, the weakest since Nov. 24, before trading at 1,150.25, from 1,152.58.

Australia’s dollar traded near a one-week low against the yen as concerns about Europe’s debt crisis and tensions on the Korean peninsula sapped demand for higher-yielding assets.

The Australian dollar was little changed at 83.03 yen, from 82.98 yen. It earlier touched 82.74, the weakest since Dec. 13.

Surveys of strategists and economists by Bloomberg News show none of the so-called commodity currencies are likely to strengthen next year.

“The commodity currencies are at extremes,” said Ken Dickson, a money manager who helps oversee $240 billion at Standard Life Investments in Edinburgh. “The Aussie dollar is fully valued. The upside is limited and we would not be advocating long positions.”

EUR/USD: traded within $1.3130/80 range.


GBP/USD: got support at $1.5475 and bounced to the minor resistance $1.5550.


USD/JPY: traded within Y84.10-Y83.80.

European data for Monday starts at 0700GMT with German PPI data for November, while at 0900GMT, ECB current account data is due. At 1500GMT it is back to Europe for the release of EMU flash consumer confidence data for December.

13:43
US OUTLOOK: Daiwa says bal sheet adjustments are on-going and lower debt "partly reflects tight lending standards at commercial banks."
11:21
European focus: the euro is under pressure.

The euro weakened to a two-week low against the dollar and the yen on speculation European nations will struggle to raise funds after rating companies downgraded the credit ratings of countries in the region.

The single currency fell versus 14 of 16 major counterparts as the European Central Bank warned of “concerns” about Irish legislation to fix its banking system. The Swiss franc appreciated to a record against the euro. South Korea’s won touched a three-week low as the country conducted artillery drills near its disputed western sea border.

“Sentiment is clearly bearish for the euro,” said Stephan Maier, a foreign-exchange strategist at UniCredit SpA in Milan. “The ratings risk is clearly pointing to still weaker ratings in the euro periphery. We expect as well the final reading of the third-quarter U.S. GDP so this will favour the dollar.”

The euro slipped 0.2 percent to $1.3167 as of 8:03 a.m. in London, after declining to $1.3125, the weakest since Dec. 2. The euro fell 0.3 percent to 110.44 yen from 110.77 yen, after sliding to 110.18 yen, the lowest since Dec. 7. The U.S. currency traded at 83.84 yen from 83.98 yen.

Moody’s lowered Ireland’s credit rating by five levels to Baa1 on Dec. 17, the day after it placed Greece on review for possible downgrade. Standard & Poor’s put Belgium on negative watch last week.

The cost to insure French government debt trebled this year to about 102 basis points on Dec. 17, approaching the record 105 basis points reached on Nov. 30, according to data provider CMA.

Credit-default swaps tied to the French bonds imply a rating of Baa1, seven steps below its actual top ranking of Aaa at Moody’s, according to the New York-based firm’s capital markets research group.

10:52
OECD: Spain must stand ready for more fiscal consolidation

 

  •  Early details of 2012, 2013 budget could help confidence;
  •  Spain 'is committed' to ensuring sound public finances;
  •  Fiscal consolidation to weigh on recovery in short term;
  •  Spain's growth to remain subdued, unemployment high;
  •  Spain must push labor mkt reform,product competitiveness;
  •  Spain's banks have abundant capital, provision buffers

 

10:27
US markets schedule for Christmas and the New Year

Worth reminding that bond and futures markets will close early on December 23rd ahead of a full market close on December 24 to observe Christmas. On Dec 31, bond and futures markets will observe an early close but stocks will remain open for a full day. And while US markets will not have a day off to observe New Year's this year, many businesses and the Federal gov't will observe the holiday Friday, while many European centers will be closed the following Monday in observance of the New Year as U.S. markets reopen for business.

09:28
Forex: weekly review

The dollar reached the strongest against the euro in two weeks as Treasury yields were near seven-month highs, boosting demand for U.S. assets, and on concern the European Union summit didn’t do enough to keep sovereign-debt problems from spreading across the region.
The euro earlier rose after EU leaders agreed to create a mechanism to contain future debt shocks and German business confidence unexpectedly climbed. Beyond the permanent debt- crisis mechanism in 2013, the leaders struggled to bridge divisions about immediate steps to stabilize bond markets. The index of U.S. leading economic indicators increased in November by the most in eight months.

Germany, the biggest contributor to Europe’s bailouts of Greece and Ireland, pushed through a proposal that would allow financial aid “if indispensable” to underpin the euro and may force bondholders to bear some costs of future rescues.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel ruled out putting more money on the table, retooling the post-Greek rescue European Financial Stability Facility to enable it to buy troubled government bonds, or further entwining Europe’s economies through joint bond sales.
U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron said his country won’t pay into the euro-region bailout mechanism and said he wanted the European Union’s budget frozen as he sought to distance Britain from the region’s policies.
“We’re looking at a situation where the U.S. dollar should do a little bit better,” said Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist at Toronto-Dominion Bank’s TD Securities unit in Toronto. “The euro probably still has further to fall considering the still quite significant sovereign fiscal challenges that we have in the euro zone.”
“We’re a little bit disappointed at their inability to approach the broad solution to the sovereign debt crisis that’s clearly needed,” Steven Englander, head of Group of 10 currency strategy at Citigroup Inc. in New York, said in an interview on Bloomberg Radio’s “Bloomberg Surveillance” with Tom Keene. “ The market is afraid of a financial rupture in the euro zone.”
The Munich-based Ifo institute said its business climate index, based on a survey of 7,000 executives, increased to 109.9 from 109.3 in November. That’s the highest since records for reunified Germany began in 1991. Economists predicted a drop to 109.
Moody’s Investors Service cut Ireland’s credit rating by five levels to Baa1 after the government was forced to ask for external aid last month, staggered by losses in the banking system.
“The Irish government’s financial strength could decline further if economic growth were to be weaker than currently projected or the cost of stabilizing the banking system turn out to be higher than currently forecast,” Moody’s said.
The yen headed for a weekly decline against a basket of 10 currencies as the MSCI Asia Pacific Index of regional shares rose. People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said his nation won’t increase reserve ratios and interest rates at the same time, the South China Morning Post reported, citing a speech at Peking University.

Zhou said yesterday that increases in banks’ mandatory reserves don’t rule out interest rate increases, the Hong Kong- based English-language newspaper reported today.
“Risk sentiment remains firm, supporting higher-yielding currencies against developed nations’ currencies,” said Koji Fukaya, chief currency strategist in Tokyo at Credit Suisse Group AG. “Currencies should strengthen against the yen.”

09:26
Stocks: weekly review

Asian stocks rose for the first time in three days, sending the MSCI Asia Pacific Index to its second weekly advance this month, as technology and finance companies gained on the outlook for earnings.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.5% gain this week. It climbed to a 2 1/2-year high this week as U.S. economic reports boosted confidence in a global recovery, easing concerns that Europe’s debt crisis and China’s measures to slow inflation will hurt growth.

European equities lost ground as Moody’s, the rating agency, downgraded Ireland’s debt by five notches.
Ireland’s debt was slashed from Aa2 to Baa1, only two grades above junk status, with the rating agency warning that further downgrades were possible. That followed a similar decision last week when Fitch downgraded Ireland by three notches.
The European equity markets saw strong gains early in the week as China chose not to raise interest rates over the weekend. That news lifted export-dependent stocks in the car and industrial metals sectors
But by mid-week stocks were falling across the region as Moody’s said they were considering downgrading Spanish sovereign debt, giving investors fresh cause to worry about the eurozone sovereign debt crisis.

This ratings news sparked particularly sharp falls in financial stocks. Spain’s BBVA fell 5.6 per cent to €7.59 over the week, while Italy’s UniCredit lost 8.1 per cent to €1.56. The Eurofirst 300 banking index was down 3.4 per cent on the week.
Losses across the region were pared somewhat at news that European Union leaders had approved an amendment to EU treaties to form a new bail-out system for debt-laden countries.
The proposed amendment, which must still be ratified by all 27 member states, would form a permanent rescue fund in 2013.
However, given that the fund would not come online for two years, the news did not provide overwhelming reassurance to investors worried about Spain and Portugal going the same way as Ireland next year.



Most U.S. stocks rose, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to a two-year high, as better-than- projected earnings forecasts at Oracle Corp. and Research In Motion Ltd. and the takeover of a regional bank overshadowed concern Europe’s debt crisis will spread.
Concerns about Europe weighted on investor sentiment after rating agency Moody’s downgraded Ireland’s credit rating by five notches.
The S&P 500 was up 0.2% cent over the week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained  0.6% on the five days and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.3% over the week.
Overnight the US House of Representatives approved the tax bill, which, once the President signs it, will extend the Bush-era tax cuts.

09:08
Asian session: euro remains under pressure

Data:
07:00     Japan     Leading indicators composite index (October) final    97.7    -    97.2
07:00     Japan     Coincident indicators composite index (October) final    100.8    -    100.7
09:00     Germany     PPI (November)    0.2%    0.3%    0.4%
09:00     Germany     PPI (November) Y/Y    4.4%    4.5%    4.3%


The euro declined to a two-week low against the dollar and the yen on speculation European nations will struggle to raise funds as rating companies downgrade the credit ratings of countries in the region.
The single currency fell versus 14 of its 16 major counterparts as France prepared to sell 5 billion euros ($6.6 billion) of bills after Moody’s Investors Service last week cut Ireland’s credit rating and said it may lower Spain’s.
“The rating agencies’ continued downgrades and warnings on the ratings on European countries will leave the euro vulnerable,” analysts led by Hans-Guenter Redeker, London-based global head of foreign-exchange strategy at BNP Paribas SA, wrote in a research note Dec. 17. “We continue to favor the euro-dollar breaking lower from its recent trading range.”
The dollar gained versus the euro before reports this week forecast to show the U.S. economy grew and personal spending increased.

EUR/USD: traded within $1.3130/80 range.

GBP/USD: got support at $1.5475 and bounced to the minor resistance $1.5550.

USD/JPY: traded within Y84.10-Y83.80.


European data for Monday starts at 0700GMT with German PPI data for November, while at 0900GMT, ECB current account data is due. At 1500GMT it is back to Europe for the release of EMU flash consumer confidence data for December.

09:00
EMU: Oct sa current account -E9.8bln; Sep -E9.7bln (-E13.1bln)
08:29
Option expiries for today's 1500GMT cut:

EUR/USD $1.2850, $1.3235, $1.3325, $1.3400, $1.3450
USD/JPY Y82.70, Y83.50, Y84.00, Y84.10(lge), Y84.15, Y84.50
GBP/USD $1.5580, $1.5380
USD/CHF Chf0.9700, Chf0.9900
AUD/USD $0.9855, $0.9865, $0.9900
AUD/NZD NZ$1.3400
AUD/CAD C$1.0030

07:45
ECB TRICHET: Euro is credible, problem is some countries' ratings

Ireland must implement consolidation plan rigourously
ECB demands governments fulfill fiscal responsibilities
France like others must pay close attention to budget
Countries exit from EMU is absurd hypothesis.

07:25
Techs on USD/JPY

Resistance 3:Y86.40            
Resistance 2:Y85.90           
Resistance 1:Y84.50
Current price: Y83.87
Support 1:Y83.50         
Support 2:Y82.80         
Support 3:Y82.30        

Comments: In general, tech hasn't changed much. Resistance comes at Dec 15 high on Y84.50. Above there is a room for a rise up to Y85.90 (Sep high), then - to Y86.40 (Aug 13 high). Support is near Y83.50 (Dec 15 lows). Below losses may widen to Y82.80 (Dec 14 lows).

07:23
Techs on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.9920
Resistance 2: Chf0.9870               
Resistance 1: Chf0.9720
Current price: Chf0.9687
Support 1: Chf0.9650
Support 2: Chf0.9560
Support 3: Chf0.9460

Comments: Support is around hourly lows on Chf0.9650/20. Stronger level - on Chf0.9560 (Asian lows). Then support comes at Oct lows on Chf0.9460.  Break above Chf0.9720 will trigger the double-bottom formation on targeting Chf0.9870 (also 61.8% Fibo of Chf1.0070 - Chf0.9560 decline). Further resistance is at  Chf0.9920 (Dec 08 high).

07:00
German producer prices in November +0.2% m/m; +4.4% y/y.
06:52
Techs on GBP/USD

Resistance 3:$1.5760
Resistance 2:$1.5650
Resistance 1:$1.5530/50
Current price: $1.5510
Support 1: $1.5470/50
Support 2: $1.5440                 
Support 3: $1.5200

Comments: Cable remains under pressure. Back under Friday/sessin lows on $1.5470/50 (minor support) support comes at $1.5340 (Sep 14 lows) and stronger - at $1.5200 (Sep 07 lows). If consolidation occures the upside target is on $1.5530/50 (50% of Friday's fall). Above there is a room for a rise up to $1.5650/60 (Asian highs), then - to $1.5760.

06:49
Techs on EUR/USD

Resistance 3:$1.3360
Resistance 2:$1.3280
Resistance 1:$1.3180
Current price: $1.3155
Support 1:$1.3130             
Support 2: $1.3060
Support 3: $1.2970

Comments: Euro remains under pressure after it broke support at $1.3180 (recistance now). There is a room for decline tp Dec 02 on $1.3060. Stronger support is near Nov 30- Dec 01 lows on $1.2970. Ubder these levels losses may widen to Sep 06 highs on $1.2710.  Back above $1.3180 may extend the recover up to hourly highs on $1.3280 and then - to stronger resistance at $1.3360 (Friday highs).

06:21
Crude oil futures are trading modestly lower Monday.

The front-month contract was last 11 cents lower at $87.91, just of the session low at $87.84.

06:14
Japan economy minister Kaieda expects economy to head to gradual recovery after pause.
06:13
Economic Calendar for today, December 20, 2010

05:00     Japan     Leading indicators composite index (October) final         -    97.2
05:00     Japan     Coincident indicators composite index (October) final         -    100.7
07:00     Germany     PPI (November)         0.3%    0.4%
07:00     Germany     PPI (November) Y/Y         4.5%    4.3%
09:00     EU(16)     Current account (October) adjusted, bln          -    -13.1
09:00     EU(16)     Current account (October) unadjusted, bln          -    -9.2

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