Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 17-05-2011.

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17.05.2011
18:33
EUR/USD refreshed session high on $1.4236 and retreated to current $1.4216. Offers remain at $1.4240/50 area.
18:02
EUR/USD above $1.4200

EUR/USD trades back above $1.4200 now for fresh highs for the US session at $1.4216. Rate triggered stops above the morning high and $1.4200. Supply at $1.4225 with stops at $1.4230.

17:38
Dow -103.19 at 12445.54, Nasdaq -8.80 at 2773.51, S&P -4.34 at 1325.19

Stocks are trimming losses, but they still have a ways to go before they can attempt to claim a gain. The upturn comes as the dollar dips back into negative territory so that it now trails a basket of major foreign currencies by about 0.1%.

17:15
US focus: Yen tumbles as Bank of Japan Says Economy in ‘severe’ state

The yen dropped the most in almost three weeks versus the dollar after Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said the economy is in a “very severe” state, fueling bets monetary policy may be eased further.
The Japanese currency weakened against most of its major counterparts.
The pound rose from almost a one-month low versus the dollar as U.K. inflation accelerated to the highest level since 2008, increasing pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates.
U.K. consumer prices increased 4.5% last month from a year earlier after a 4% gain in March, the Office for National Statistics said today. The median forecast of economists was a 4.1% rise. Core inflation accelerated to a record. The British central bank has held its official bank rate at 0.5% since March 2009.
Japan’s economy has been in a severe situation since the March 11 earthquake and the central bank is committed to ending deflation, Shirakawa told today. The government hoped for “flexible” action by the bank to support the economy and will also closely watch the currency, according to a statement approved by Prime Minister Naoto Kan’s Cabinet.
Ministers for the first time also floated the idea of talks with bondholders over extending Greece’s repayment schedule. Europe would consider “reprofiling” Greek bond maturities as part of a package including stepped-up sales of state assets and deeper spending cuts, Juncker said.

16:35
EUR/CHF under pressure

EUR/CHF printed lows near Chf1.2500 as a few stops were flushed below Chf1.2510 and further stop interest in place below Chf1.2500. Currently cross holds around Chf1.2525.

16:16
EUR/USD retreats

EUR/USD retreats again, holding around $1.4141 after it failed to recover. Semi-official supply was mentioned ahead of $1.4160 and above, so there is a risk for a test.

15:30
Dow -84.46 at 12463.91, Nasdaq -13.66 at 2768.65, S&P -4.60 at 1324.87

Stocks are on the backslide following a failed attempt to turn higher. For the second straight session the Nasdaq pared losses, but ran into resistance upon reaching the neutral line.
Tech stocks are still the primary culprits behind the Nasdaq's recent weakness. Semiconductor issues are among the weakest performing tech holdings; collectively, they are down 1%, as measured by the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index.

15:10
HSBC: mоmentum in production has slowed.

"April's slower than trend increase of 0.2% for factory production excluding autos is consistent with the recent declines in the regional manufacturing indexes."

13:43
ECB NOWOTNY: Don't expect soft Greek debt restructuring
  • Greece has to do more consolidation measures;
  • Portugal situation not as bad as Greece
13:17
US: April Ind Production +0.0%, putting Capacity Util at 76.9%
12:33
US: Apr housing starts -10.6% to 523k, permits -4.0% to 551k.
10:13
BOE KING: Excess Volatility If MPC Aims To Get CPI TO 2% Fast
  • High CPI Mainly Due VAT, Energy, Import Prices;
  • CPI Ex-energy, VAT, Import Price Changes probably under 2%;
  • Difficult to be sure when cpi will return to target;
  • CPI Likely To Rise Further In Next Few Months.
10:01
BOE KING: Excess Volatility If MPC Aims To Get CPI TO 2% Fast
  • High CPI Mainly Due VAT, Energy, Import Prices;
  • CPI Ex-energy, VAT, Import Price Changes probably under 2%;
  • Difficult to be sure when cpi will return to target;
  • CPI Likely To Rise Further In Next Few Months.
09:40
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:
EUR/USD $1.4225, $1.4200, $1.4050

USD/JPY Y81.00, Y81.50, Y79.50 
EUR/JPY Y113.50, Y117.70
GBP/USD $1.6250
USD/CHF Chf0.8930
AUD/USD $1.0550, $1.0490
USD/NZD $0.7800
AUD/NZD NZ$1.3600
USD/CAD C$0.9800

09:00
GERMANY: ZEW; May econ sent index 3.1
08:31
UK DATA:

Apr CPI +1% m/m; +4.5% y/y; core CPI +3.7% y/y

Apr RPI +0.8% m/m; +5.2% y/y; Apr RPIX +5.3% y/y

08:07
Asian session: Australia’s dollar rose

Data:
01:30 Australia RBA Meeting's Minutes

The euro gained for a second day against the yen as European finance officials meeting in Brussels endorsed a bailout for Portugal, boosting confidence the region’s debt crisis will be contained.
Europe’s common currency maintained yesterday’s advance against the greenback amid speculation the European Central Bank will add to last month’s interest-rate increase on signs of accelerating price pressures. 
Australia’s dollar rose against all 16 of its major counterparts after the Reserve Bank said it may need to raise borrowing costs “at some point” to slow inflation, minutes of its May 3 meeting showed.
The dollar gained the most in a week against the yen before a Fed report economists say will show industrial production increased in April for a sixth straight month. The U.S.’s industrial output rose 0.4 percent, after the previous month’s 0.8 percent expansion, according to a survey.

EUR/USD: the pair bargained within the limits of $1,4125-$ 1,4195.
GBP/USD: the pair become stronger in around $1,6230. 
USD/JPY: the pair reached level Y81,45.

The main core-European release for Tuesday comes at 0900GMT, when the German ZEW data us expected to post an improvement for May to 88.0 in the current situation index, while the economic situation measure may slip to a reading of 5.0.
UK data starts at 0830GMT with inflation data for April as well as the latest CLG House Prices data. Median forecasts look for UK CPI to rise 0.7% m/m, 4.2% y/y with core CPI up 3.2% y/y. RPI is seen rising 0.9% m/m, 5.3% y/y with RPIX up 1.0% m/m, 5.3% y/y. 
US data starts at 1145GMT with the weekly ICSC-Goldman Store Sales data, while US data continues at 1230GMT, when the pace of housing starts is forecast to rise to a 570,000 annual rate after coming in above expectations in March. The supply of new homes was at a 44-year low in March, so builders will need to increase supply at some point. At 1315GMT, industrial production is expected to rise 0.4% in April. 

08:05
Asian stocks close:

Hang Seng  -0.25% 22,903
Shanghai Composite +0.13% 2,852.77
Nikkei +0.09% 9567.02

07:58
Forex: Monday's review

The euro rose versus the dollar as stocks and commodities pared losses and inflation in the 17- nation currency bloc gained to the fastest since 2008, boosting pressure on the European Central Bank to raise interest rates.
The Swiss franc rose against most major currencies as finance ministers at a meeting in Brussels struggled to resolve the euro region’s debt crisis. 
European finance ministers stepped up the pressure on Greece to sell assets and deepen spending cuts to win an increase of its 110 billion-euro ($156 billion) aid package and more time to repay the loans.
In deliberations clouded by the absence of International Monetary Fund Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn, Europe’s rich countries tied extra money to pledges by Greece to reap more revenue at home and weighed whether to make bondholders share the pain.
Also on the agenda were aid for Portugal and the nomination of Bank of Italy Governor Mario Draghi to be the next president of the European Central Bank.
Nemat Shafik, an IMF deputy managing director, was tapped to represent the institution at the Brussels meeting after Strauss-Kahn was charged with attempted rape in New York. He denied the charges.
Consumer-price growth in the 17-nation euro region quickened to 2.8%. That was in line with an initial estimate on April 29.
The ECB raised its benchmark rate to 1.25% in April. The Federal Reserve has kept its key rate at zero to 0.25% since December 2008.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s general economic index fell to 11.9 from a one-year high of 21.7 in April as the cost of raw materials surged. Economists projected it would slip to 19.6.

EUR/USD: the pair shown high in the field of $1,4240, decreased later and finished session in around $1,4160.
GBP/USD: the pair bargained within the limits of $1,6160-$ 1,6255. 
USD/JPY: the pair bargained within the limits of Y80,60-Y81,10.
The main core-European release for Tuesday comes at 0900GMT, when the German ZEW data us expected to post an improvement for May to 88.0 in the current situation index, while the economic situation measure may slip to a reading of 5.0.
UK data starts at 0830GMT with inflation data for April as well as the latest CLG House Prices data. Median forecasts look for UK CPI to rise 0.7% m/m, 4.2% y/y with core CPI up 3.2% y/y. RPI is seen rising 0.9% m/m, 5.3% y/y with RPIX up 1.0% m/m, 5.3% y/y. 
US data starts at 1145GMT with the weekly ICSC-Goldman Store Sales data, while US data continues at 1230GMT, when the pace of housing starts is forecast to rise to a 570,000 annual rate after coming in above expectations in March. The supply of new homes was at a 44-year low in March, so builders will need to increase supply at some point. At 1315GMT, industrial production is expected to rise 0.4% in April. 

07:08
Stocks: Monday's review

Japanese stocks fell for a third day as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. lowered its rating on the country’s equities and on concern Greece may have to restructure its debt, hampering the global economic recovery.
The Topix has tumbled 11 percent since March 10, the day before a magnitude-9 earthquake and tsunami devastated Japan’s northeast coast, disabled a nuclear power plant and disrupted supply chains at companies.
Of the 1,500 companies in the Topix index that have reported earnings results since April 1, 232 have exceeded analysts’ estimates, while 266 have missed them, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Toyota Motor Corp. (7203), the world’s No. 1 carmaker, slid 1.8 percent.
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. (8306) lost 1.6 percent, leading the nation’s lenders down after Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services cut credit ratings for Tokyo Electric Power Co., the owner of a damaged power plant.
Ricoh Co., an office equipment maker that gets almost a quarter of its sales from Europe, declined 1.1 percent after the euro weakened.
Credit Saison Co., a consumer lender, sank 6 percent after saying profit fell short of its outlook due to a quake-related charge.
Promise Co., Japan’s No. 2 consumer lender by market value, plunged 11 percent to 639 yen after swinging to a net loss of 96 billion yen from a year-earlier profit, with falling revenue and more reserves needed to repay overcharged interest.
Most European stocks fell, dragging the Stoxx Europe 600 Index lower for a third day, as officials met in Brussels to discuss increasing Greece’s bailout.
Greece’s ASE Index sank to a 14-year low as National Bank of Greece SA (ETE) declined.
Unione di Banca Italiane SCPA, Italy’s fourth-biggest bank, retreated 1.8 percent as net income missed estimates.
Securitas AB (SECUB) slid 4.1 percent as the world’s largest guarding company offered to buy Niscayah Group AB. (NISCB)
BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP) led mining companies higher as copper gained in London.
Greece began negotiating for a boost in its 110 billion- euro bailout from European governments and the International Monetary Fund today in talks clouded by the arrest of IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn.
Strauss-Kahn has been charged with attempted rape and a criminal sex act on a 32-year-old female maid in a New York hotel, police said. He denies the charges.
Also on the meeting agenda, which started at 3 p.m. in Brussels, is the approval of 78 billion euros in aid for Portugal and the nomination of Bank of Italy Governor Mario Draghi to be the next president of the European Central Bank.
European Union finance ministers are set to approve the bailout for Portugal, the nation’s finance minister Fernando Teixeira dos Santos told reporters before the talks began.
U.S. stocks ended a choppy session lower Monday as investors remain focused on oil prices and the debt crisis in Europe.
Stocks opened lower following a dour manufacturing report and weaker-than-expected earnings from home improvement retailer Lowe's (LOW, Fortune 500). After posting gains in the morning, stocks fell anew in the afternoon.
Economy: The Empire Manufacturing survey came out before the start of trading. The regional reading for general business conditions for manufacturing slipped to 11.9, much lower than the reading of 18 than the consensus estimate of economists from Briefing.com. The index was 21.7 in April.
The National Association of Homebuilders said its May index of builder confidence was unchanged from the previous month at 16, as expected.
Companies: A number of major retailers report earnings results this week.
Shares of home improvement chain Lowe's (LOW, Fortune 500) fell 3%, after the company reported earnings that fell short of forecasts and reigned in its forecast.
Department store J.C. Penney (JCP, Fortune 500) reported a profit of 28 cents per share, topping expectations by 4 cents. Shares slipped 2%.
Also, the NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc. (NDAQ) and IntercontinentalExchange (ICE) said they are withdrawing their bid to acquire NYSE Euronext (NYX, Fortune 500), following discussions with the antitrust division of the U.S. Department of Justice

06:59
Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3: Y82.80 (Apr 27 high) 
Resistance 2: Y81.70 (May 2 high) 
Resistance 1:Y81.45 (session high) 
Current price: Y81.33
Support 1:Y80.90 (support line from May 13)  
Support 2:Y80.60 (May 16 low)  
Support 3:Y80.30 (May 13 low)  
Comments: the pair grown. The nearest resistance - Y81.45. Above growth is possible to Y81.70. The nearest support - Y80.90. Below losses are possioble to Y80.60. 

06:43
Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.9000 (Apr 19 high, 38,2 % FIBO Chf0,9780-Chf8550)
Resistance 2: Chf0.8940 (resistance line from Feb 11)
Resistance 1: Chf0.8860 (session high)
Current price: Chf0.8850
Support 1: Chf0.8840 (session low)
Support 2: Chf0.8800 (May 13-16 low)
Support 3: Chf0.8780 (May 11 low)
Comments: the pair bargains in a narrow range. The nearest resistance - Chf0.8960. Above is located Chf0.8940. The nearest support - Chf0,8840. Below loss may extend to Chf0.8800. 

06:31
Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.6380 (May 12 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.6310 (May 13 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.6255 (May 16 high)
Current price: $1.6205
Support 1 : $1.6180 (support line from May 13)
Support 2 : $1.6090 (Apr 5 low)
Support 3 : $1.5930 (low of March)
Comments: the pair bargains in the field of $1.6200. The nearest support $1.6180. Below is possible testings of around $1.6090. The nearest resistance - around $1.6255. Above growth is possible to $1.6310. 

06:29
Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.4340 (May 13 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.4250 (May 16 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.4190 (resistance line from May 5)
Current price: $1.4165
Support 1 : $1.4130 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.4050 (May 16 low)
Support 3 : $1.4020 (Mar 28 low)
Comments: the pair bargains in the field of $1.4160. The nearest support $1,4130. Below losses are possible to $1.4050. The nearest resistance - $1.4190. Above growth is possible to $1,4250.

06:21
Schedule for today, Tuesday, May 17 2011:

08:30 UK BoE meeting minutes (04-05.05)  
08:30 UK Claimant count (April) -2000 700
08:30 UK Claimant count rate (April) - 4.5%
08:30 UK Average earnings (3 months to March) Y/Y 2.1% 2.0%
08:30 UK Average earnings ex bonuses (3 months to March) Y/Y - 2.2%
08:30 UK ILO Jobless rate (March) 7.8% 7.8%
18:00 USA FOMC meeting minutes (26-27.04)  
23:50 Japan Real GDP (Q1) preliminary -0.5% -0.3%
23:50 Japan Real GDP (Q1) preliminary Y/Y 2.0% -1.3%

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