Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 17-04-2019.

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17.04.2019
22:30
Schedule for today, Thursday, April 18, 2019
Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
00:30 Japan Manufacturing PMI April 49.2  
01:30 Australia Changing the number of employed March 4.6 12
01:30 Australia Unemployment rate March 4.9% 5%
06:00 Germany Producer Price Index (YoY) March 2.6% 2.7%
06:00 Germany Producer Price Index (MoM) March -0.1% 0.2%
06:00 Switzerland Trade Balance March 2.04  
07:15 France Manufacturing PMI April 49.7 50
07:15 France Services PMI April 49.1 49.8
07:30 Germany Services PMI April 55.4 55.1
07:30 Germany Manufacturing PMI April 44.1 45
08:00 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI April 47.5 47.9
08:00 Eurozone Services PMI April 53.3 53.2
08:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) March 0.4% -0.3%
08:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) March 4% 4.6%
12:30 U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims 1713 1720
12:30 Canada Retail Sales YoY February 1.1%  
12:30 Canada Retail Sales, m/m February -0.3% 0.4%
12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims 196 205
12:30 U.S. Retail sales March -0.2% 0.9%
12:30 U.S. Retail Sales YoY March 2.2%  
12:30 U.S. Retail sales excluding auto March -0.4% 0.7%
12:30 U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey April 13.7 10.4
12:30 Canada Retail Sales ex Autos, m/m February 0.1% 0.2%
13:45 U.S. Manufacturing PMI April 52.4 52.8
13:45 U.S. Services PMI April 55.3 55
14:00 U.S. Leading Indicators March 0.2% 0.4%
14:00 U.S. Business inventories February 0.8% 0.4%
16:10 U.S. FOMC Member Bostic Speaks    
23:30 Japan National CPI Ex-Fresh Food, y/y March 0.7% 0.7%
23:30 Japan National Consumer Price Index, y/y March 0.2% 0.5%
19:50
Schedule for tomorrow, Thursday, April 18, 2019
Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
00:30 Japan Manufacturing PMI April 49.2  
01:30 Australia Changing the number of employed March 4.6 12
01:30 Australia Unemployment rate March 4.9% 5%
06:00 Germany Producer Price Index (YoY) March 2.6% 2.7%
06:00 Germany Producer Price Index (MoM) March -0.1% 0.2%
06:00 Switzerland Trade Balance March 2.04  
07:15 France Manufacturing PMI April 49.7 50
07:15 France Services PMI April 49.1 49.8
07:30 Germany Services PMI April 55.4 55.1
07:30 Germany Manufacturing PMI April 44.1 45
08:00 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI April 47.5 47.9
08:00 Eurozone Services PMI April 53.3 53.2
08:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) March 0.4% -0.3%
08:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) March 4% 4.6%
12:30 U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims 1713 1720
12:30 Canada Retail Sales YoY February 1.1%  
12:30 Canada Retail Sales, m/m February -0.3% 0.4%
12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims 196 205
12:30 U.S. Retail sales March -0.2% 0.9%
12:30 U.S. Retail Sales YoY March 2.2%  
12:30 U.S. Retail sales excluding auto March -0.4% 0.7%
12:30 U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey April 13.7 10.4
12:30 Canada Retail Sales ex Autos, m/m February 0.1% 0.2%
13:45 U.S. Manufacturing PMI April 52.4 52.8
13:45 U.S. Services PMI April 55.3 55
14:00 U.S. Leading Indicators March 0.2% 0.4%
14:00 U.S. Business inventories February 0.8% 0.4%
16:10 U.S. FOMC Member Bostic Speaks    
23:30 Japan National CPI Ex-Fresh Food, y/y March 0.7% 0.7%
23:30 Japan National Consumer Price Index, y/y March 0.2% 0.5%
14:34
EIA’s report reveals a surprise decline in U.S. crude oil inventories

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed that crude inventories fell by 1.396 million barrels in the week ended April 12. Economists had forecast an increase of 2.300 million barrels.

At the same time, gasoline stocks fell by 1.174 million barrels, while analysts had expected a drop of 2.300 million barrels. Distillate stocks declined by 0.362 million barrels, while analysts had forecast a decrease of 1.000 million barrels.

Meanwhile, oil production in the U.S. fell by 100,000 barrels a day to 12.100 million barrels a day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.0 million barrels per day last week, down by 607,000 barrels per day from the previous week.



14:30
U.S.: Crude Oil Inventories, April -1.396 (forecast 1.711)
14:28
U.S. wholesale inventories rise less than forecast in February

The Commerce Department said on Wednesday the U.S. wholesale inventories increased 0.2 percent m-o-m in February, following a revised 1.2 percent m-o-m advance in January (originally, a gain of 1.4 percent m-o-m).

Economists had forecast wholesale inventories rising 0.5 percent m-o-m in February.

On a y-o-y basis, wholesale inventories surged 6.9 percent.

According to the report, wholesale auto stocks edged up 0.1 percent m-o-m in February, while apparel inventories climbed 1.8 percent m-o-m. Meanwhile, sales at wholesalers rose 0.3 percent m-o-m in February, due to increases in sales of motor vehicles, furniture, professional equipment and electrical goods. But sales of wholesale groceries declined 2.1 percent m-o-m, the most since April 2004.

14:15
Canada’s trade deficit narrows in February

Statistics Canada announced on Wednesday that Canada’s merchandise trade deficit stood at CAD2.90 billion in February, narrowing from a revised CAD3.09 billion gap in January (originally a CAD4.25-billion deficit). 

Economists had expected a deficit of CAD3.50 billion. 

According to the report, the country’s exports were down 1.3 percent m-o-m in February as all non-energy product sections declined, led by the metal and non-metallic mineral products section (-6.6 percent m-o-m).

Meanwhile, imports fell 1.6 percent m-o-m in February, led by lower imports of gold.


14:00
U.S.: Wholesale Inventories, February 0.2% (forecast 0.5%)
13:08
Canada consumer inflation accelerates in March

Statistics Canada reported on Wednesday the country’s consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.7 m-o-m in March, the same pace as in the previous month.

On the y-o-y basis, Canada’s inflation rate increased 1.9 percent last month after a 1.5 percent gain in February. That was the highest inflation rate since December 2018.

Economists had predicted inflation would increase 0.7 percent m-o-m and 1.9 percent y-o-y in March.

According to the report, prices went up in all eight major components in the 12 months to March. The transportation index (+1.9 percent) drove the all-items CPI increase, as gasoline prices declined less in March than in February (-4.4 percent in March versus -11.9 percent in February). 

The closely watched the Bank of Canada's core index increased 1.6 percent y-o-y in March after gaining 1.5 percent y-o-y in the previous month. 

12:43
U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly narrows in February

The U.S. Commerce Department reported on Wednesday the U.S. the goods and services trade deficit narrowed to USD49.4 billion in February from USD51.1 billion in the previous month. That was the smallest gap since June 2018.

Economists had expected a deficit of $53.5 billion. 

According to the report, the February decrease in the goods and services deficit reflected a decline in the goods deficit of $1.2 billion to $72.0 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.5 billion to $22.6 billion. 

Exports of goods and services from the U.S. rose 1.1 percent m-o-m to USD209.7 billion in February, while imports edged up 0.2 percent m-o-m to USD259.1 billion.

Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit fell $8.3 billion, or 7.6 percent, from the same period in 2018. Exports rose $11.1 billion or 2.7 percent, while imports increased $2.8 billion or 0.5 percent.


12:30
U.S.: International Trade, bln, February -49.4 (forecast -53.5)
12:30
Canada: Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core, y/y, March 1.6% (forecast 1.3%)
12:30
Canada: Consumer price index, y/y, March 1.9% (forecast 1.9%)
12:30
Canada: Consumer Price Index m / m, March 0.7% (forecast 0.7%)
12:30
Canada: Trade balance, billions, February -2.9 (forecast -3.5)
12:00
ECB's governing council member Nowotny: ECB unlikely to cut economic forecasts "significantly" in June
  • It is not yet the time for the governing council to introduce tiering on rates
  • We should not use tiering to keep rates permanently low
  • Eurozone economy should at least stabilize in the second half of 2019
11:59
China's Cabinet: Will expand the size of relending and rediscount policy tools

  • Will resolutely not to implement flood like stimulus

11:32
Italy's Deputy PM Salvini rules out an increase in VAT
11:25
U.S. mortgage applications fell 3.5 percent lats week

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) announced on Wednesday the U.S. mortgage applications fell 3.5 percent in the week ended April 12, following a 5.6 percent drop in the previous week.   

According to the report, refinance application declined 8.2 percent, while applications to purchase a home increased 0.9 percent, reaching their highest level since April 2010.

At the same time, the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by 4 bps to 4.44 percent.

“With mortgage rates up for the second week in a row, it’s no surprise that refinancings slid 8%, and average loan sizes dropped back closer to normal levels,” noted Joel Kan, MBA’s associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting. “The spring buying season continues to be robust.”

10:45
U.S. trade balance and Fed’s Beige Book in focus - TDS

Analysts at TD Securities suggest that for the U.S. economy, February trade balance data will be released on Wednesday, with the market consensus expecting a modest widening of the trade deficit to $53.4 billion.

  • “In addition, monthly growth in wholesale inventories is expected to slow to 0.3% in February following consecutive +1% m/m prints in December-January.”
  • “Lastly, the publication of the Federal Reserve's Beige Book will also garner attention as market participants look for further clues regarding the evolution of economic activity at the end of the March/start of April.”
09:58
BOJ warns of overheating in real estate loans

The Bank of Japan issued a warning for the first time in 20 years that financial institutions may be over-extending real estate loans.

Nearly 60% of regional banks could suffer net losses a decade from now if corporate borrowing keeps falling at the current trend, the central bank said in a semi-annual report on Japan's banking system.

The report highlights the mounting demerits of prolonged monetary easing such as the damage it is inflicting on financial institutions' profits.

"As regional banks have generally not been able to secure profits commensurate with the increase in risk-weighed assets, their capital adequacy ratios and stress resilience have declined moderately. Should this situation persist, downward pressure on the real economy from the financial system could intensify," the BOJ said in the report.

09:40
German Economy Ministry cuts 2019 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% from 1.0%

  • Expects the economy to rebound in 2020, GDP growth forecast of 1.5%.

  • Trade disputes and Brexit are weighing on German growth.

  • Sees inflation at 1.5% in 2019 and 1.8% in 2020.

  • Expects export growth of 2.0% in 2019 and 1.8% in 2020.

  • Expects import growth of 3.8% in 2019 and 4.0% in 2020.

09:39
Eurozone trade surplus rises sharply in March

According to the report from Eurostat, the first estimate for euro area (EA19) exports of goods to the rest of the world in February 2019 was €183.3 billion, an increase of 4.4% compared with February 2018 (€175.6 bn). Imports from the rest of the world stood at €165.4 bn, a rise of 4.0% compared with February 2018 (€159.0 bn). As a result, the euro area recorded a €17.9 bn surplus in trade in goods with the rest of the world in February 2019, compared with + €16.5 bn in February 2018. Intra-euro area trade rose to €160.3 bn in February 2019, up by 3.4% compared with February 2018.

In January to February 2019, euro area exports of goods to the rest of the world rose to €366.8 bn (an increase of 3.4% compared with January-February 2018), and imports rose to €347.0 bn (an increase of 3.6% compared with January-February 2018). As a result the euro area recorded a surplus of €19.8 bn, compared with +€19.6 bn in January-February 2018. Intra-euro area trade rose to €326.8 bn in January-February 2019, up by 3.5% compared with January-February 2018

09:18
Eurozone annual inflation down to 1.4% in March

According to the report from Eurostat, the euro area annual inflation rate was 1.4% in March 2019, down from 1.5% in February 2019. A year earlier, the rate was 1.4%. European Union annual inflation was 1.6% in March 2019, stable compared to February 2019. A year earlier, the rate was 1.6%.

The lowest annual rates were registered in Portugal (0.8%) and Greece (1.0%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Romania (4.2%), Hungary (3.8%) and the Netherlands (2.9%). Compared with February 2019, annual inflation fell in six Member States, remained stable in two and rose in nineteen.

In March 2019, the highest contribution to the annual euro area inflation rate came from energy (+0.52 percentage points, pp), followed by services (+0.51 pp), food, alcohol & tobacco (+0.34 pp) and non-energy industrial goods (+0.04 pp).

09:00
Eurozone: Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y, March 0.8% (forecast 0.8%)
09:00
Eurozone: Trade balance unadjusted, February 17.9 (forecast 12.3)
09:00
Eurozone: Harmonized CPI, March 1% (forecast 1%)
09:00
Eurozone: Harmonized CPI, Y/Y, March 1.4% (forecast 1.4%)
08:47
United Kingdom Consumer Prices Index stays flat in March at 1.9 % yy

Office for National Statistics said, the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) 12-month rate was 1.9% in March 2019, unchanged from February 2019.

The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) 12-month inflation rate was 1.8% in March 2019, unchanged from February 2019.

Rising prices for motor fuels and clothing produced the largest upward contributions to change in the rate between February and March 2019. The largest, offsetting, downward contributions came from across a range of recreational and cultural goods, food and motor vehicles.

A separate report from the ONS showed that the headline rate of output inflation for goods leaving the factory gate was 2.4% on the year to March 2019, which is unchanged from February 2019.

The growth rate of prices for materials and fuels used in the manufacturing process was 3.7% on the year to March 2019, down from 4.0% in February 2019.

All product groups provided upward contributions to output annual inflation. Fuel provided the largest upward contribution to the annual rate of input inflation, despite falling on the month.

08:32
United Kingdom: Producer Price Index - Input (MoM), March -0.2% (forecast 0.3%)
08:32
United Kingdom: Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) , March 3.7% (forecast 3.9%)
08:31
United Kingdom: Producer Price Index - Output (MoM), March 0.3% (forecast 0.2%)
08:31
United Kingdom: Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) , March 2.4% (forecast 2.1%)
08:30
United Kingdom: HICP, m/m, March 0.2% (forecast 0.3%)
08:30
United Kingdom: Retail prices, Y/Y, March 2.4% (forecast 2.6%)
08:30
United Kingdom: HICP, Y/Y, March 1.9% (forecast 2%)
08:30
United Kingdom: HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y, March 1.8% (forecast 1.9%)
08:30
United Kingdom: Retail Price Index, m/m, March 0% (forecast 0.2%)
08:14
Eurozone current account balance decreased in February

According to the report from European Central Bank, the current account of the euro area recorded a surplus of €27 billion in February 2019, decreasing by €10 billion compared with January 2019. Surpluses were recorded for goods (€26 billion), services (€6 billion) and primary income (€7 billion). These were partly offset by a deficit for secondary income (€13 billion).

In the 12 months to February 2019, the current account recorded a surplus of €335 billion (2.9% of euro area GDP), compared with one of €374 billion (3.3% of euro area GDP) in the 12 months to February 2018. This decline was driven mainly by smaller surpluses for goods (down from €324 billion to €278 billion) and services (down from €110 billion to €102 billion), and by a larger deficit for secondary income (up from €141 billion to €157 billion). These developments were only partly offset by a larger surplus for primary income (up from €82 billion to €112 billion).

08:01
Eurozone: Current account, unadjusted, bln , February 15.5 (forecast 17.2)
07:39
Britain's markets watchdog to review post-Brexit rules

Britain's markets watchdog will review its rules as the country readies to leave the EU, the source of its financial regulation for decades.

"Post-Brexit, we need to consider the future of regulation to ensure the regulatory landscape is fit for the challenge it faces," the Financial Conduct Authority said.

The watchdog's chief executive, Andrew Bailey, said Brexit will be the most immediate challenge its faces. "In order to ensure we are a regulator that continues to serve the public interest, we need to adapt to the ever-changing environment," Bailey said.

07:19
U.S. businesses no longer 'positive anchor' for U.S.-China relations - chamber

Frustrated U.S. businesses can no longer be counted on as a "positive anchor" in U.S.-China relations, a top U.S. business lobby said, arguing any deal to end trade tensions must address structural problems in China's economic system.

"Crucially, the mood has shifted," the American Chamber of Commerce in China said in a statement accompanying its annual report on China's business climate.

"The U.S. business community in China, so long an advocate of good bilateral relations, can no longer be relied upon to be a positive anchor. U.S. companies continue to face an uncertain operating environment in China amid decreasing optimism about their investment outlook," it said.

06:59
EUR/USD is holding steady - Commerzbank

According to Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, EUR/USD pair is holding steady at the 55 and 100 day moving averages at 1.1308/48, and they view it as consolidating.

“The 1.1176 recent low is regarded as an interim low and we suspect that the market is trying to base but needs to do more work (we note the 13 count on the weekly chart and this adds weight to the idea of a potential base). Initial resistance is the 100 day ma at 1.1348 and the resistance line at 1.1391 ahead of the 200 day ma at 1.1441. The cross should target the 1.1570 January high, together with the 55 week ma at 1.1551. Below 1.1185/75 (61.8% retracement) lies the 1.1110, the May 2017 low and the 1.0814/78.6% retracement.”

06:39
European passenger car market contracted by 3.9% in March

According to the report from European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA). in March 2019, the European passenger car market contracted by 3.9%, falling from 1,792,880 units the year before to 1,722,442 last month. Demand decreased in all major EU markets. Italy posted the highest percentage drop (-9.6%), followed by Spain (-4.3%), the United Kingdom (-3.4%), France (-2.3%) and Germany (-0.5%).

Three months into the year, demand for new cars in the European Union declined by 3.3%, totalling 4,032,881 units. In Germany, registrations remained almost flat (+0.2%), while the other key markets performed worse than in the first quarter of 2018 − most notably Spain (-6.9%) and Italy (-6.5%).

06:20
The US economy ‘is chugging along pretty well’ - Goldman Sachs CEO

Goldman Sachs Chief Executive David Solomon said that the chances of the U.S. economy soon entering a recession are lower now than they were earlier this year.

“I don’t see any data in any way, shape or form that leads me to believe that that chance is accelerating at the moment,” Solomon told.

Solomon told in January that he saw a 50% chance of a U.S. recession by the end of 2020. Now, however, he said he thinks the risk “feels less than that today.”

“I think the U.S. economy is growing at trend at the moment. I do think, as we came into the end of the year, there was some fear that we really were in a place where economic growth was really pivoting into very, very significant slowdown. I do think growth slowed around the world and I do think the growth trajectory slowed in the US as we finished 2018 and it’s pretty clear to me that while the first quarter was sluggish, the second quarter was chugging along pretty well and certainly we’re at trend,” Solomon added.

05:59
China's economy still faces pressure, policy steps starting to help - statistics bureau

China's economy still faces downward pressure, while policy steps to support the economy are starting to bear fruit, statistics bureau said.

Mao Shengyong, spokesman for the bureau, made the comments after official data showed China's economy grew at a steady 6.4% pace in the first quarter from a year earlier, defying expectations for a slowdown, as industrial output jumped sharply. The bureau also said the retail sales climbed 8.7 percent on year in March - beating expectations for an increase of 8.4% and up from 8.2% in February. Fixed asset investment rose 6.3% on year, in line with expectations and up from 6.1% in the previous month.

There are favourable factors for supporting industrial output growth and it is expected to maintain a steady pace, Mao said.

05:26
Options levels on wednesday, April 17, 2019 EURUSD GBPUSD

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1425 (4977)

$1.1394 (3902)

$1.1360 (282)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1305

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1274 (3085)

$1.1237 (3213)

$1.1194 (2926)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date May, 3 is 71894 contracts (according to data from April, 16) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (5831);


GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3311 (2305)

$1.3227 (1958)

$1.3164 (1392)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3060

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3029 (1375)

$1.2968 (1620)

$1.2887 (1710)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date May, 3 is 23167 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3500 (2458);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date May, 3 is 21287 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2600 (2560);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.92 versus 0.95 from the previous trading day according to data from April, 16

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

04:46
Japan: Industrial Production (YoY), February -1.1% (forecast -1.0%)
04:32
Japan: Industrial Production (MoM) , February 0.7% (forecast 1.4%)
02:00
China: GDP y/y, Quarter I 6.4% (forecast 6.3%)
02:00
China: Fixed Asset Investment, March 6.3% (forecast 6.3%)
02:00
China: Industrial Production y/y, March 8.5% (forecast 5.9%)
02:00
China: Retail Sales y/y, March 8.7% (forecast 8.4%)
01:29
Australia: Leading Index, March 0.2%
00:15
Currencies. Daily history for Tuesday, April 16, 2019
Pare Closed Change, %
AUDUSD 0.71735 0.07
EURJPY 126.352 -0.14
EURUSD 1.12848 -0.14
GBPJPY 146.057 -0.41
GBPUSD 1.30445 -0.4
NZDUSD 0.67654 0.06
USDCAD 1.33528 -0.14
USDCHF 1.00741 0.37
USDJPY 111.992 0.02

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