Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 16-05-2011.

EUR/USD tries to set over $1.4200 for trade to $1.4220 in thin market. Euro expected to find supply to $1.4250 and resistance around the 55d ma at $1.4274. Rate currently holds around $1.4196.

Stocks have bounced off of their afternoon lows, but the Nasdaq is still down 1%. Tech stocks, which are collectively down 1%, continue to hamper it.
Consumer discretionary stocks aren't faring much better. The sector is off by 0.8%. Wal-Mart (WMT 55.96, +0.24) has won some support ahead of its latest quarterly report, which will be posted tomorrow morning. The world's largest retailer is expected to announce earnings of $0.95 per share.

JiJi Press previewing this week's BOJ meeting and says that the Bank will keep its overnight rate unchanged at 0.10% and will hold its asset buying program steady at Y10 tn after doubling its size in March.

The euro rose versus the dollar as stocks and commodities pared losses and inflation in the 17- nation currency bloc gained to the fastest since 2008, boosting pressure on the European Central Bank to raise interest rates.
The Swiss franc rose against most major currencies as finance ministers at a meeting in Brussels struggled to resolve the euro region’s debt crisis.
European finance ministers stepped up the pressure on Greece to sell assets and deepen spending cuts to win an increase of its 110 billion-euro ($156 billion) aid package and more time to repay the loans.
In deliberations clouded by the absence of International Monetary Fund Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn, Europe’s rich countries tied extra money to pledges by Greece to reap more revenue at home and weighed whether to make bondholders share the pain.
Also on the agenda were aid for Portugal and the nomination of Bank of Italy Governor Mario Draghi to be the next president of the European Central Bank.
Nemat Shafik, an IMF deputy managing director, was tapped to represent the institution at the Brussels meeting after Strauss-Kahn was charged with attempted rape in New York. He denied the charges.

Consumer-price growth in the 17-nation euro region quickened to 2.8%. That was in line with an initial estimate on April 29.
The ECB raised its benchmark rate to 1.25% in April. The Federal Reserve has kept its key rate at zero to 0.25% since December 2008.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s general economic index fell to 11.9 from a one-year high of 21.7 in April as the cost of raw materials surged. Economists projected it would slip to 19.6.

The broad equity market is mixed, but airline stocks are soaring this session. As such, the Dow Jones Airline Index is up 2.4%. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Transportation Index is up 0.3%. Lower oil prices have helped; the price of the energy component has been in the red all session and currently trades with a 1.6% loss at $98.10 per barrel.

Silver holds at $34.96/oz, after trading in a $34.08 to $35.34 range. The precious metal posted a new 31-month high of $49.51/oz April 28 and then fell 34.7% to a low of $32.33 May 12. Silver has made a series of lower highs and has closed below its 55-day moving average (currently $38.90) two Friday's in a row, both deemed negative. From the 2011 low of $26.38 (Jan 28) to the May peak, silver rallied 87.6%, only to then fall a bit beyond its 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $35.22.

The major equity averages have pulled up from their opening levels, but they are still in the red with modest losses this morning. Their initial upturn comes as the dollar declines to fresh morning lows -- it is now down 0.3% against a basket of major foreign currencies.
Materials stocks have benefited the most from the greenback's downturn. The sector is up 0.6%, which makes it this morning's top performing sector and puts it comfortably out in front of the overall market.

EUR/USD  $1.3900, $1.3930, $1.4080, $1.4100, $1.4150, $1.4200
USD/JPY Y80.00, Y80.40, Y80.70, Y80.80, Y81.00, Y81.50, Y81.70, Y81.75, Y81.80
EUR/JPY Y114.05, Y116.20
AUD/USD $1.0505, $1.0650
NZD/USD $0.8000

U.S. stocks were poised to open lower Monday, following a report on manufacturing. Investors were also keeping an eye on easing oil prices and the next steps for the nation's debt, as it reached its legal limit.

Just two weeks ago, stocks were sitting at the highest levels in nearly 3 years. But investors are bracing for the conclusion of the Fed's bond buying program at the end of June. All three major indexes are down almost 2% in May.
Economy: The Empire Manufacturing survey came out before the start of trading. The regional reading for general business conditions for manufacturing slipped to 11.9. The index was 21.7 in April.
After the opening bell, the National Association of Homebuilders is scheduled to release its housing market index for May. The index is forecast to remain unchanged at 16.
Companies: A number of major retailers report earnings results this week.
Shares of home improvement chain Lowe's (LOW, Fortune 500) fell 5% in premarket trade, after the company reported earnings that fell short of forecasts and it reigned in its forecast.
Department store J.C. Penney (JCP, Fortune 500) reported a profit of 28 cents per share, topping expectations by 4 cents. Shares rose 5% in premarket trade.

The Swiss franc appreciated against all 16 of its most-traded peers as investors sought the safest assets amid speculation a meeting of finance ministers will struggle to resolve the euro area’s debt crisis.
The franc rose from its weakest level against the dollar since April 20. The euro has dropped 0.9 percent over the past month in a measure of the currencies of 10 developed nations. It’s slipped 2.1 percent against the dollar as yields for the region’s most- indebted nations jumped amid heightened concern the countries may struggle to repay their debt. The yen has gained 4.8 percent in the period, while the dollar is up 1.5 percent.
Ministers will discuss Greece’s predicament at meetings starting at 3 p.m. in Brussels today. Also on the agenda are approval of 78 billion euros ($110 billion) in aid for Portugal, and the nomination of Bank of Italy Governor Mario Draghi to be the next president of the European Central Bank.
Any extension of the maturities of Greek bonds would have to involve private investors, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said in an interview with ARD television yesterday. “Debt restructuring is not in the cards,” European Commission spokesman Amadeu Altafaj told reporters in Brussels today.
The yen strengthened as equities and crude oil declined, while U.S. Treasuries advanced. New Zealand’s dollar fell for a second day as investors sold higher-yielding assets.

EUR/USD: based around $1.4050 before gained back to $1.4150. 

EUR/USD
Offers: $1.4150/60, $1.4180, $1.4200
Bids: $1.4090/60, $1.4050/40, $1.4000, $1.3980,

USD/JPY
Offers: Y81.00/05, Y81.75/80, Y82.00/05
Bids: Y80.60/50, Y80.25/15, Y80.00/Y79.80

EUR/USD  $1.3900, $1.3930, $1.4080, $1.4100, $1.4150, $1.4200
USD/JPY Y80.00, Y80.40, Y80.70, Y80.80, Y81.00, Y81.50, Y81.70, Y81.75, Y81.80
EUR/JPY Y114.05, Y116.20
AUD/USD $1.0505, $1.0650
NZD/USD $0.8000

Eases to $1.4100, as rate extends its corrective pullback off European morning highs of $1.4148. Bids have been reported from $1.4095, with interest extending down to $1.4055, stronger into $1.4050/40 with stops placed through $1.4030/20. Resistance remains at $1.4150/60.

Corrective pullback off earlier highs at $1.6222 seen meeting decent support at the reported demand interest level at $1.6180. Level corresponds to the 76.4% retrace of the move up from overnight lows of $1.6165 to $1.6222. A break here to expose that overnight low, with bids seen here, more toward $1.6150. Resistance now seen at $1.6220/25 ahead of $1.6235.

Falls sharply with the euro-dollar from earlier highs of $1.0594, and closing in on bids seen around $1.0525. Talk of some magnetic stops through $1.0518 ahead of further bids $1.0485. Large stops below at $1.0475 ahead of bids $1.0460/50.

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