Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 14-01-2011.

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14.01.2011
19:59
S&P predicts improvement in financial companies.
19:50
GBP/USD holds stable

GBP/USD continues to flirt with the earlier high at $1.5888, trading currently at $1.5880 but amid light flows, cable still a relative underperformer on the day when compared to the brisker action in euro-dollar. Offers remain at $1.5900 where a barrier strike is touted. Stops positioned above.

19:32
Dow +51.69 at 11783.59, Nasdaq +14.47 at 2749.76, S&P +7.75 at 1291.51

The stock market has extended its afternoon advance to a fresh session high. The move has taken the S&P 500 above the 1290 line for the first time since 2008.

Merck (MRK 34.28, -0.42) is a source of weakness in the health care sector as it extends its prior-session sell-off into today's trade.

Meanwhile, Coca-Cola (KO 63.12, -0.28) has weighed down the consumer staples sector after it had put on a relatively solid performance yesterday.

19:02
FED: Lacker said does not know if Fed would raise rates with unemployment above 9%.
18:48
EUR/USD holds tigh

EUR/USD holds $1.3340 area for current dealings, slightly defensive but with little to no momentum after the pair rebounded form $1.3315 to $1.3360, likely defining the afternoon range. Area ahead of $1.3300 said to hold bids with stops below. Upside to find supply atop $1.3400.

18:19
US focus: Dollar heads for biggest weekly drop since September on retail, sentiment

The dollar was headed for its biggest weekly loss since September against the currencies of major U.S. trading partners as consumer confidence unexpectedly fell and retail sales rose less than economists forecast.
The euro pared its weekly rally versus the dollar as Fitch Ratings cut Greece’s debt to junk.
“The sentiment is already kind of negative for the U.S. dollar,” said Omer Esiner, chief market analyst in Washington at Commonwealth Foreign Exchange Inc., a currency brokerage. “It’s less positive than we’ve seen.”

The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer confidence dropped to 72.7 this month from 74.5 in December. The median forecast of economists was for an increase to 75.5.
Sales at U.S. retailers gained 0.6% in December after advancing 0.8% in the previous month, the Commerce Department reported. The median forecast of economists was for a 0.8% gain.
European finance ministers will assemble a “comprehensive package” to tackle the crisis by March and discuss details of the “ambitious” program when they meet in Brussels next week, Germany’s Wolfgang Schaeuble said yesterday. Chancellor Angela Merkel indicated this week the government’s desire to do “whatever is needed to support the euro.”
The 17-nation currency was supported as European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet signaled yesterday he’s prepared to raise interest rates to contain inflation.
European inflation quickened to an annual pace of 2.2% in December from 1.9% in the previous month, the European Union’s statistics office said today. That’s the fastest since October 2008 and in line with a Jan. 4 estimate.

17:50
Dow +33.91 at 11765.81, Nasdaq +9.75 at 2745.04, S&P +5.24 at 1289.00

Stocks recently stretched to a fresh session high. The move has coincided with a dip in volatility, such that the Volatility Index is now down more than 4% to a new three-week low. While the broader market has gradually added to its gains, Coinstar (CSTR 42.74, -14.24) is still down 25% after it issued lowered its outlook. That announcement had put pressure on Netflix (NFLX 190.07, -1.43) shortly after its release, but NFLX has managed to limit its loss in regular trading hours.

17:26
USD/JPY retreats

USD/JPY erding the supply layered above Y83.00 with recent prints to Y83.05 or so, the dollar not building much momentum but not showing any pullback either. Offers in place to Y83.10, as noted earlier.

16:18
US OUTLOOK: JPM says Q4 real consumption is tracking +4%.
15:51
US OUTLOOK: Economist Joe Carson at Alliance Bernstein says Dec's lower unemployment rate could be a sign of labor mkt healing.
He looked at the 5 occasions when unemployment fell 0.4 pt or more since 1970, says in 4 cases labor force fell and in more than half the cases unemploy rate ticked up at least 0.1 pt in subsequent month. Rising hiring intentions in surveys supports idea that Dec was inflection pt in lowering the unemployment rate.
15:02
US DATA: Nov business inventories +0.2% vs +0.7% expected, as retail invwere flat and +0.2% excluding the -0.8% in retail motor vehicle inv.
Total inventories ex. retail auto +0.3% based on MNI calc. Business sales +1.2% in Nov, putting the inv/sales ratio at 1.25 vs 1.27 in Oct and 1.27 a year ago. NSA sales +10.6% yr/yr, and inv +6.9% yr/yr. Factory inventories were already reported +0.8% for the month while wholesale inventories -0.2%.
14:57
US DATA: Jan prelim Rtrs/U-Michigan consumer sentiment 72.7 vs 74.5f in Dec.
13:34
US DATA: Dec retail sales print a little under expectations at +0.6% overall, +0.5% ex auto, and +0.4% ex auto and gas; also Nov ex-autos was rev lower to +1.0%
This still suggests consumption was growing fast in Q4, but Q4 GDP estimates probably will remain in the +3% area after this disappointment. YOY sales are +6.65% vs -6.5% in 2009 and -0.8% in 2008. Dec sales were held down by -0.6% electronics, -0.6% food, and -0.2% clothing (severe seasonal adj took away about 40% of the NSA gain). Sales gains were seen in furniture +1.0%, bldg mats +2.0% (a rebound after -1.1% in Nov), healthcare +1.6%, and sporting goods +0.4%. Autos were +1.1% and gasoline +1.6% (mainly on price gains). Overall sales had a good Dec and full-yr showing, just not as robust as chain store results alone suggested.
13:34
US DATA: December CPI +0.5%, core +0.1
. Rise in overall index slightly above expected, while core at expectations. Energy prices +4.6%, with gasoline prices +8.5%% while electricity +0.3%. Food prices rose 0.1%. Core prices were led by price gains for medical care (+0.2%), shelter (+0.1%), rent (+0.2%), and airfares (+3.3%). On the downside, recreation fell 0.2%, communication -0.1%, household furnishings (-0.1%), while used cars and trucks -0.1%. The index for new vehicles was unchanged. The year/year pace of overall CPI stands at +1.5%, core CPI stands +0.8%. Unrounded CPI +0.50469%, core +0.09235%.
13:16
European session:

The euro strengthened for a fifth day versus the dollar, headed for its biggest weekly gain in almost two years, amid speculation inflation pressure may spur the European Central Bank to raise borrowing costs this year.
The common currency was set for a weekly advance versus all of its 16 major counterparts as traders bet European finance ministers may next week reinforce measures to stem the region’s debt crisis. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet yesterday signaled he’s prepared to raise interest rates if needed. The Dollar Index dropped a fifth day as confidence in the U.S. economic recovery wavered and the Swiss franc declined.
“If the periphery is to be ring-fenced, the ECB can concentrate more on price stability,” said Stephen Gallo, head of market analysis at Schneider Foreign Exchange in London. “People have quite rapidly moved away from the U.S. growth story and are clearly focusing on the euro. Pure hawkishness on the part of Trichet yesterday is a driver for the euro.”
Europe’s currency headed for a weekly gain versus the greenback after the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said today the German inflation rate, calculated using a harmonized European method, rose to 1.9 percent in December from 1.6 percent in November. That’s the fastest since October 2008. Spain’s underlying inflation rate accelerated in December at the fastest pace in almost two years, a separate report showed.

EUR/USD: traded within  $1.3460-$1.3320.

GBP/USD: consolidated near resent highs.

USD/JPY: eased to Y82.40, but bounsed back to Y83.

12:03
JPMorgan Chase has released Q4 results, reporting an EPS of $1.12 versus analysts estimates of $1.00.
11:36
JPMorgan Chase reports Q4 earnings at 1200GMT, where street earnings per share estimate is 99 cents.
11:12
GERMANY: No need to increase EFSF now
EMU States' budget consolidation paying off
10:15
February WTI Crude falls back to a low of $90.22 after an earlier high of $91.22 on general commodity weakness and softening equities. Crude trades around $90.33.
09:30
UK: Dec producer output prices +0.5% m/m; +4.2% y/y
Dec core producer output prices +0.2% m/m; +2.9% y/y Dec producer input prices +3.4% m/m; +12.5% y/y
09:23
FRANCE FINMIN: EFSF capital hike an option; need other measures

Exploring possibility of EFSF bond buying

08:51
Asian session: The euro strengthened

The euro strengthened to a one-week high against the dollar after a German report showed inflation accelerated to the fastest pace in more than two years.
The common currency was set for a weekly advance versus all of its 16 major counterparts as European finance ministers may increase the size of aid reserves and lower rates on bailout loans at a meeting next week.
The yen rose for the first time in four days against the euro on speculation Japan’s exporters took advantage of yesterday’s biggest drop in six weeks to buy it.
Europe’s currency headed for a weekly gain versus the greenback after the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said today the inflation rate, calculated using a harmonized European method, rose to 1.9 percent in December from 1.6 percent in November. That’s the fastest since October 2008.
The yen rose versus 15 of its 16 major counterparts on speculation that Japanese exporters purchased the currency after it touched the weakest level since December.

EUR/USD: the pair bargained in the field of the high reached yesterday.

GBP/USD: the pair bargained in the field of the high reached yesterday.

USD/JPY: the pair decreased in around Y82,50.


European data for Friday starts at 0700GMT with the latest ACEA new car registrations data. This morning also sees the release of final HICP data from the German states, including Germany at 0700GMT.
At 0935GMT, ECB Governing Council member Axel Weber is due to speak at the Otto Beisheim School of Management. EMU data includes the November trade balance at 1000GMT as well as the final December HICP data, which
is expected to confirm the preliminary release of 2.2% y/y.
UK data at 0930GMT includes Producer Prices for December, where PPI output is expected to come in at 0.4% m/m, 4.0% y/y, with core output at 0.3% m/m, 3.0% y/y and input prices 1.5% m/m, 10.2%
US data starts at 1330GMT with retail sales and CPI. Retail sales are expected to rise 0.8% in December. Industry auto sales rose slightly in the month, while gasoline prices rose further according to AAA. Sales
excluding motor vehicles are expected to post a 0.7% increase on the higher gasoline prices as well as solid holiday sales. Consumer prices are expected to rise 0.4% in December, on solid gains in both food and
energy prices. AAA reported another rise in gasoline prices in the middle of December from a month earlier. Core CPI is forecast to rise only 0.1%, as pricing power remains very weak. US data continues at
1415GMT, when industrial production is expected to rise 0.5% in December on rising utilities production and moderately stronger manufacturing production. Factory payrolls 10,000 in the month, while auto production
jobs rose 3,000. The factory workweek fell 0.1 to 40.2 hours, while the ISM production index rose to 60.7. Capacity utilization is forecast to rise to 75.6%.
y/y.

08:43
FOREX: Thursday's review

The euro rose versus all of its major counterparts as traders speculated that European Union leaders will step up efforts to contain the region’s debt crisis and demand rose at Spain’s debt sale.
Spain sold 3 billion euros ($3.9 billion) of five-year bonds in its first debt auction of the year, meeting its maximum target. Demand was 2.1 times the amount sold, compared with 1.6 times at the previous sale. Italy sold 6 billion euros of bonds due in 2015 and 2026.
The 17-nation currency had its biggest four-day gain versus the dollar since September as European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet signaled an increased risk of inflation.
Trichet signaled he’s prepared to raise interest rates if needed to fight inflation even as leaders struggle to contain the region’s sovereign debt crisis.
The dollar dropped versus the yen as U.S. jobless claims rose to the highest level since October.
U.S. initial jobless claims rose in the first week of 2011 to 445,000, the highest level since October, the Labor Department reported. Separate reports showed the producer price index rose last month by the most in 11 months, while the trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed in November.


EUR/USD: the pair become stronger in around $1.3350.

GBP/USD: the pair become stronger in around $1.5820.

USD/JPY: the pair decreased in around Y82,80.


European data for Friday starts at 0700GMT with the latest ACEA new car registrations data. This morning also sees the release of final HICP data from the German states, including Germany at 0700GMT.
At 0935GMT, ECB Governing Council member Axel Weber is due to speak at the Otto Beisheim School of Management. EMU data includes the November trade balance at 1000GMT as well as the final December HICP data, which
is expected to confirm the preliminary release of 2.2% y/y.
UK data at 0930GMT includes Producer Prices for December, where PPI output is expected to come in at 0.4% m/m, 4.0% y/y, with core output at 0.3% m/m, 3.0% y/y and input prices 1.5% m/m, 10.2%
US data starts at 1330GMT with retail sales and CPI. Retail sales are expected to rise 0.8% in December. Industry auto sales rose slightly in the month, while gasoline prices rose further according to AAA. Sales
excluding motor vehicles are expected to post a 0.7% increase on the higher gasoline prices as well as solid holiday sales. Consumer prices are expected to rise 0.4% in December, on solid gains in both food and
energy prices. AAA reported another rise in gasoline prices in the middle of December from a month earlier. Core CPI is forecast to rise only 0.1%, as pricing power remains very weak. US data continues at
1415GMT, when industrial production is expected to rise 0.5% in December on rising utilities production and moderately stronger manufacturing production. Factory payrolls 10,000 in the month, while auto production
jobs rose 3,000. The factory workweek fell 0.1 to 40.2 hours, while the ISM production index rose to 60.7. Capacity utilization is forecast to rise to 75.6%.
y/y.


08:23
Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3:Y83,70 (Jan 7 high)
Resistance 2:Y83.15 (Jan 13 high)
Resistance 1:Y82,85 (session high)
Current price: Y82.56
Support 1:Y82.50 (session low)
Support 2:Y82.30 (50,0 % FIBO Y80,90-Y83,70)
Support 3:Y82.00 (61,8 % FIBO Y80,90-Y83,70)

Comments: the pair bargains below mark Y83,00. The nearest resistance - Y82,85. Above growth is possible to Y83.15. The nearest support - Y82,50. Below losses are possible to Y82.30.

08:20
Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.9915 (Dec 8 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9850 (Dec 13 high)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9765/85 (Jan 13 and 11 high)
Current price: Chf0.9651
Support 1: Chf0.9630 (session low, МА(200) for Н1)
Support 2: Chf0.9600 (38,2 % FIBO Chf0,9300-Chf0,9785, Jan 7 low)
Support 3: Chf0.9540 (50,0 % FIBO Chf0,9300-Chf0,9785)

Comments: the pair bargains in the field of Chf0,9650. The nearest resistance Chf0,9765/85. Above is located Chf0.9850. The nearest support Chf0,9630. Below loss may extend  to Chf0.9600.

08:18
Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.6100 (Nov 19 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.6000 (psychological mark)
Resistance 1: $ 1.5810 (Dec 14 high)
Current price: $1.5834
Support 1 : $1.5820 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.5720 (Jan 13 low, support line from Jan 7)
Support 3 : $1.5580 (Jan 12 low)

Comments: the pair bargains in the field of the high reached yesterday. The nearest support - $1,5820. Below decrease is possible to $1.5720. The nearest resistance - $1,5810. Above growth is possible to $1,6000.

08:15
Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.3500 (Jan 14 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.3430 (Jan 4 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.3380 (session high)
Current price: $1.3343
Support 1 : $1.3320 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.3190 (38,2 % FIBO $1.2870-$ 1.3380)
Support 3 : $1.3130 (50.0 % FIBO $1,2870-$ 1,3380)

Comments: the pair bargains in the field of the high reached yesterday. The nearest support - $1,3320. Below decrease  is possible to $1.3190. The nearest resistance - $1,3380. Above growth is possible to $1,3430.

07:35
Schedule for today, Friday, Jan'14'2011:

07:00     Germany     CPI (December) final         1.0%    1.0%
07:00     Germany     CPI (December) final Y/Y         1.7%    1.7%
09:30     UK     PPI (Output) (December) unadjusted         0.4%    0.3%
09:30     UK     PPI (Output) (December) unadjusted Y/Y         3.9%    3.9%
09:30     UK     PPI Output ex FDT (December) adjusted         0.3%    0.2%
09:30     UK     PPI Output ex FDT (December) unadjusted Y/Y         -    3.3%
09:30     UK     PPI (Input) (December) adjusted         1.5%    0.9%
09:30     UK     PPI (Input) (December) unadjusted Y/Y         10.2%    9.0%
10:00     EU(16)     Harmonized CPI (December) final         0.6%    0.1%
10:00     EU(16)     Harmonized CPI (December) final Y/Y         2.2%    1.9%
10:00     EU(16)     Harmonized CPI ex EFAT (December) Y/Y         1.1%    1.1%
10:00     EU(16)     Trade balance (November) adjusted, bln          4.1    3.6
10:00     EU(16)     Trade balance (November) unadjusted, bln          -    5.2
13:30     USA     CPI (December)         0.4%    0.1%
13:30     USA     CPI (December) Y/Y         -    1.1%
13:30     USA     CPI excluding food and energy (December)         0.1%    0.1%
13:30     USA     CPI excluding food and energy (December) Y/Y         -    0.8%
13:30     USA     Retail sales (December)         0.8%    0.8%
13:30     USA     Retail sales excluding auto (December)         0.7%    1.2%
14:15     USA     Industrial production (December)         0.4%    0.4%
14:15     USA     Capacity utilisation (December)         75.4    75.2
14:55     USA     Michigan sentiment index (January) preliminary         75.2    74.5
15:00     USA     Business inventories (November)         0.8%    0.7%

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