Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 13-12-2010.

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13.12.2010
20:05
US OUTLOOK:

JPM economist Jim Glassman says the wk may be quiet. "FOMC meeting is expected to pass quietly. Critics who claim the Fed's asset purchase initiative poses an inflation threat that will be difficult to contain are off base and won't deter the FOMC. The consumer news likely will continue to be upbeat... Despite pressures in the food and energy area, core inflation likely remains low."

19:52
Citigroup now sees US 4Q/4Q 2011 GDP growth close to 3-1/2%, and says "the U.S. official debt burden is not the primary concern of investors."
19:31
USD/CAD holds near highs

USD/CAD showed little lasting reaction to BOC Gov Carney's comments about the consolidation of Canadian debt and his view of an expected Canadian economic recovery next year (on exports and investment). Dollar-Canada holds at C$1.0070, in the middle of a C$1.0038/C$1.0108 range.

19:12
EUR/USD holds above $1.3400

After breaking above recent highs near $1.3420 earlier EUR/USD peaked at $1.3434 and then ran out of steam. Traders point to a Reuter's ECB sources story as a possible euro negative, but stress the pair still holds above $1.3400, with no sign of backing down. The sources story says the ECB is considering an increase in capital at eurozone member state banks.

18:43
Dow +49.61 at 11459.93, Nasdaq +2.97 at 2640.51, S&P +5.16 at 1245.56

Equities continue to trade in a tight intraday range just below the day's highs. The dollar index (DXY 79.18 -0.90) has just dropped to a new low in recent trade, down ~1% and near a technical support zone.

Although the intraday action has been relatively subdued today, tomorrow's FOMC meeting and continued progress on the tax cut extensions will be of particular interest this week. The Senate is expected to vote on the Tax Bill this afternoon, and the bill is expected to pass there before heading to the House, where its fate is less certain in its current form.

The FOMC will meet tomorrow and release a policy statement around 18:15 GMT, which could add more volatility to the treasury market, which has seen a sharp rise in yields over the past few weeks.

18:17
EUR/USD pops over $1.3400, but traders see tough resistance at recent highs near $1.3420.
18:15
US focus: Dollar falls as China interest rate decision spurs demand for risk assets

The dollar fell against most of its major counterparts as China refrained from raising interest rates, lifting stock markets at the expense of safer assets.

“There is some relief they didn’t tighten, as the expectation was, with inflation that high and the economy doing so well that we would’ve seen a tightening over the weekend from the central bank of China,” said Camilla Sutton, a Bank of Nova Scotia currency strategist. “The U.S. dollar is relatively weak and risk assets like Australia and Norway are outperforming.”

Consumer prices in China rose a more-than-forecast 5.1% in November from a year earlier, statistics showed during the weekend. “Chinese stocks had a big rally,” said Richard Franulovich, a senior currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp.. “You have good conditions for a bounce in risk. Against that background, the dollar’s getting sold.”

The dollar weakened against the yen and the euro and declined for the third straight day against the Australian dollar and fourth day against the Canadian currency.

The Canadian dollar extended this month’s increase to 2% versus the dollar, trading within half a cent of parity. The fourth straight days of gains is the longest winning streak in more than a month.

The euro extended its gains after Moody’s Investors Service Inc. said the U.S. tax-cut package up for a procedural vote in the Senate boosts the chances for a negative outlook on the U.S. credit rating.

The dollar rallied last week after President Barack Obama said he would accept lower tax rates onhigh earners’ income, dividends, capital gains and estates for the next two years in exchange for extending federal unemployment insurance and a one- year cut in payroll taxes.

The pound declined after housing prices fell for the second consecutive month in December. A

17:29
BMO Capital Markets on S&P 500

Robert Kavcic of BMO Capital Markets says Q3 US earnings season is almost over, with overall results similar to that seen in Q2. Right now, 76% of S&P 500 companies have beaten earnings estimates, while 61% have beaten on revenue, he says. The Q3 results is just a tad below the 81% that beat estimates in Q2. US corporate balance sheets remain cash rich, with liquid assets rising to "the highest level since the mid 1950s relative to short-term liabilities in Q3," Kavcic says.

17:08
CANADA: BOC's Carney talked about 2% infl target and living with low rates
16:40
JPM's Tom Lee, head of US equity strategy, forecasts the S&P500 at 1425 by YE 2011.
He forecasts 2010 EPS at $85.50, 2011 at $94.45 (+10% vs '10) and 2012 at $102.00 (+8% vs '11). The YE 2011 S&P forecast is based on the market trading at 14x his 2012 earnings estimate at that time."
14:55
Dow +18.13 at 11428.45, Nasdaq +0.48 at 2638.02, S&P +2.40 at 1242.80
Stocks are narrowly higher in the first few minutes of trade. The gains, though moderate, have been enough to take the S&P 500 to a fractionally improved two-year high. Support for stocks is broad as all 10 of the major sectors sport gains. Materials and energy stocks are leading the way with respective gains of 0.7% and 0.6%. Selling resumes in the Treasuries complex with the 10-yr yield touching a session high of 3.391%, its highest level since early June.
14:34
Before the bell:

U.S. stocks were poised to open slightly higher Monday, as investors mull over a slew of corporate deals, and await resolution on the tax-cut deal from Washington
Dow Jones industrial average (INDU), S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq (COMP) futures were all up modestly ahead of the opening bell.

On Friday, the S&P 500 closed at a two-year high, as stocks advanced on upbeat economic news and a dividend hike by General Electric.

World markets:

China's economy has been booming, fueling fears of an imminent interest rate hike. There has been wide speculation for several weeks that China's government would raise interest rates to slow the economic growth. So far, that rate hike has yet to be announced.
Economy: No major economic reports are scheduled to be released Monday. However, a raft of reports on unemployment, consumer prices and new home construction will be released later in the week.
Companies: Investors have a slew of corporate deals to chew on.
General Electric (GE) offered $1.3 billion for Wellstream Holdings PLC (WSM), an engineer and manufacturer of products for oil and gas transportation in the subsea production industry. Shares of GE edged higher in premarket trading.
Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), the parent company of Thermo Scientific and Fisher Scientific, announced that it would acquire Dionex Corporation (DNEX), a leading manufacturer and marketer of chromatography systems, for about $2.1 billion, or $118.50 per share in cash. Thermo Fisher's offer represents a 21% premium to Dionex's closing stock price on Dec. 10.
Also, Dell (DELL) announced that it has purchased data storage company Compellent Technologies, Inc. (CML) for $27.75 per share in cash. Last Thursday, Dell announced it was in talks with Compellant about a potential deal. Shares of Dell fell 1.4% in premarket trade, while shares of Compellent slid nearly 2% in premarket trade.
Oil for January delivery gained $1.28 cents to $89.07 a barrel.
Gold futures for February delivery rose $8.20 to $1,393.10 an ounce.
The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury edged down slightly, pushing the yield up to 3.38%.

14:08
Spot Gold is edging to a new high on the day after earlier European session slip to $1388 with the metal pushing through $1395 resistance towards $1400.
Absence of a rate hike following the Chinese weekend data has led to some short covering and fresh safe-haven buying. Gold has printed a high of $1397 and currently trades around $1395.75.
13:44
Option expiries for today's 1500GMT cut:


EUR/USD $1.2990, $1.3200(lge), $1.3285, $1.3290
USD/JPY Y83.25, Y84.00, Y84.30, Y84.40, Y85.40, Y85.50
EUR/JPY Y114.05, Y115.00
GBP/USD $1.5800, $1.5880, $1.5530
USD/CHF Chf0.9950
AUD/USD $0.9980, $0.9855, $0.9800, $0.9760, $0.9725, $0.9720, $0.9700
AUD/JPY Y81.55
NZD/USD $0.7500

13:19
January WTI rally extends to resistance at $89.10 with a clear break now targeting $90.00 and $90.76 highs of last Tuesday.
12:46
US OUTLOOK: DB sees "significant upside risks to near and medium-termGDP forecasts" and says might reconsider inflation, unemployment and monetary policy. Bottom line is '11 may pick up!
12:35
European session review: current trends are adjusting.


The yen fell against 15 of its 16 major counterparts as China refrained from raising interest rates, lifting stock markets at the expense of safer assets.

The yen declined for a second day against the dollar as the MSCI World Index climbed 0.3 percent and copper prices rallied. The U.S. currency rose as Treasury yields advanced before a report tomorrow that may show U.S. retail sales climbed for a fifth month.

“There are signs that the global economic recovery might not be as bad as some have feared, and the level of confidence has improved,” said Neil Jones, head of European hedge fund sales at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. in London. “The yen is likely to underperform in this risk-on environment.”

Consumer prices in China rose more-than-forecast 5.1 percent in November from a year earlier, statistics showed over the weekend. Confidence among U.S. consumers increased in December to a six-month high, the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment showed Dec. 10.

EUR/USD the euro is strengthening, reaching res at $1.3300.

GBP/USD the pound is adjusting after testing $1.5720.


USD/JPYthe yen has bounced from МА(64).


Canada data sees capacity utilization at 13-30 GMT.

10:55
European focus: the dollar is under support.


The yen fell against all 16 of its major counterparts as China refrained from raising interest rates, lifting stock markets and the expense of safer assets.
The yen declined for a second day against the dollar as the MSCI World Index climbed 0.3 percent and copper prices rallied. The U.S. currency rose as Treasury yields advanced before a report tomorrow that may show U.S. retail sales climbed for a fifth month.
“There are signs that the global economic recovery might not be as bad as some have feared, and the level of confidence has improved,” said Neil Jones, head of European hedge fund sales at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. in London. “The yen is likely to underperform in this risk-on environment.”


Consumer prices in China rose more-than-forecast 5.1 percent in November from a year earlier, statistics showed over the weekend. Confidence among U.S. consumers increased in December to a six-month high, the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment showed Dec. 10.

09:32
UK DATA: November NSA Producer Input Prices +0.9% m/m; +9.0%y/y
08:53
Option expiries for today's 1500GMT cut

EUR/USD $1.2990, $1.3200, $1.3285
USD/JPY Y83.25, Y84.00, Y84.30, Y84.40, Y85.40, Y85.50
EUR/JPY Y114.05, Y115.00
GBP/USD $1.5880, $1.5530
USD/CHF Chf0.9950
AUD/USD $0.9980, $0.9855, $0.9800, $0.9760, $0.9725, $0.9720, $0.9700
AUD/JPY Y81.55
NZD/USD $0.7500

08:32
Asian session: The euro dropped

The euro dropped on signs of division among European governments over how to stem the region’s debt crisis.
The shared currency weakened for a third day against the dollar before European Union leaders attend a summit on Dec. 16 and 17, with Italy, Belgium and Luxembourg favoring euro-area bonds while Germany and France are opposed.
The dollar strengthened before a report tomorrow that may show U.S. retail sales climbed for a fifth month.
The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners including the euro, yen and pound, added 0.2 percent to 80.246 today, advancing for a sixth day, the longest streak since June.
U.S. retail sales increased 0.6 percent in November after advancing 1.2 percent in October, according to the median estimate of economists.

EUR/USD: the pair decreased below a mark $1,3200.

GBP/USD: the pair decreased below a mark $1,5800.

USD/JPY: the pair become stronger above mark Y84,00.


UK data sees Producer Prices for November at 0930GMT

07:56
US Stocks: Friday's review

A gradual climb in afternoon trade took the S&P 500 to a fresh two-year high and the Nasdaq Composite to its best close in three years. The Dow failed to eclipse its November high, however.
Stocks started the session rather sluggishly, but saw some knee-jerk buying on the back of the best Consumer Sentiment Survey in six months. The preliminary reading for December came in at 74.2, which compares favorably to the 72.5 that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com.
Participants were less enthusiastic about premarket news that the October trade deficit came in at $38.7 billion, which is less than the $44.5 billion deficit that had been widely expected to follow the $44.6 billion deficit recorded for the prior month, although the combination of higher exports and lower imports should provide a boost to fourth quarter GDP.
There was also news ahead of the open that China's central bank hiked its reserve requirement by another 50 basis points. That has not quelled speculation about actual interest rate hike, however.
Stocks spent most of the morning trading listlessly with slim gains, but buyers began to show more conviction right around the time that General Electric (GE 17.72, +0.59) announced that it has hiked its dividend to $0.14 from $0.12 per share. GE's announcement made it a leader among industrial stocks, which collectively gained 1.0% gain, more than any other sector. Even United Technologies (UTX 78.40, +0.77) caught a bid, despite a disappointing earnings outlook.
Health care stocks were close behind; they advanced 0.9%. Tenet Healthcare (THC 6.65, +2.36) was a top performer in both the health care sector and the broader market after Community Health Systems (CYH 35.89, +4.25) offered to acquire it for $6.00 per share in cash and stock.
Financials also finished 0.9% higher. Strength in the sector formed slowly -- the sector had actually lagged in the first half of the session.
Broad-based support drove the S&P 500 to its best level in 26 months, but there was not enough momentum to take the benchmark index beyond the 1240 line. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite encountered little resistance, but the Dow continued to lag as it failed to extend above the levels it set this last November.
Still, it was a solid week for the stock market. It advanced in each of the past four sessions, including a fractional gain earlier this week. The result is a 1.3% weekly gain.
Outside of stocks, the dollar had a relatively quiet day. It made modest gains throughout the session, but ultimately settled near the neutral line. It gained 0.9% for the week.
Overall losses in the commodity complex left the CRB Commodity Index to slide 0.4%, which fed into a 0.4% weekly loss.
Treasuries retreated. Pressure was varied, though, as the benchmark 10-year Note dropped almost a full point and the 30-year Bond fell about 18 ticks. Their yields settled at about 3.32% and 4.43%, respectively. For the week, the yield on the 10-year ended the week higher by little more than 30 basis points and near six-month highs. The 30-year yield added only about a dozen basis points for the week.

07:17
Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3:Y87.40 (МА (200) for D1)
Resistance 3:Y85.90 (high of September)
Resistance 1:Y84.30/40 (Nov 29, Dec 1, 2 and 8 high)

Current price: Y84.12
Support 1:Y83.90 (session low)
Support 2:Y83.40 (Dec 10 low)
Support 3:Y83.10 (61,8% FIBO Y82,30-Y84,30)

Comments: the pair become stronger. The nearest resistance - Y84,30/40. Above growth is possible to Y85.90. The nearest support - Y83,90. Below losses are possible to Y83.40.

06:46
Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.9950 (Dec 3 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9915 (Dec 8 high)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9880 (МА (200) for Н1)
Current price: Chf0.9834
Support 1: Chf0.9790 (session low)
Support 2: Chf0.9755 (Dec 7 low)
Support 3: Chf0.9725 (Dec 6 low)

Comments: the pair bargains above mark Chf0,9800. The nearest support Chf0,9790. Below loss may extend to Chf0.9760. The nearest resistance Chf0,9880. Above is located Chf0.9915.

06:29
Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.5985 (61,8 % FIBO $1,6300-$ 1,5490)
Resistance 2: $ 1.5890 (50,0 % FIBO $1,6300-$ 1,5490)
Resistance 1: $ 1.5890 (Dec 10 high)
Current price: $1.5785
Support 1 : $1.5770 (support line from Dec 2)
Support 3 : $1.5655 (Dec 6 low)
Support 3 : $1.5580 (Dec 3 low)

Comments: the pair bargains in the field of $1,5780. The nearest support - $1,5770. Below decrease  is possible to $1.5655. The nearest resistance - $1,5860. Above growth is possible  to $1,5890.

06:01
Schedule for today, Monday, Dec'13'2010:

09:30     UK     PPI (Input) (November) adjusted         2.1%
09:30     UK     PPI (Input) (November) unadjusted Y/Y         8.0%
21:45     New Zealand Retail Sales (MoM)        -0.8%    1.6%    
21:45     New Zealand Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM)        -1.0%    1.6%

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