Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 13-05-2011.

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13.05.2011
18:26
Dow -120.49 at 12575.43, Nasdaq -33.04 at 2830.00, S&P -12.54 at 1336.11

Lower oil prices and a weak stock market have taken shares of oil services plays lower today.
However, offshore drilling services contractor Transocean (RIG 68.60, +1.12) is up with an impressive gain. The company announced today its approval of a dividend of about $1 billion and the election of J. Michael Talbert as Chairman of the Board.

18:00
OIL: June WTI at $97.63, down $1.33, close to session lows seen earlier at $97.18.
17:58
Dow -116.67 at 12579.25, Nasdaq -32.05 at 2830.99, S&P -11.76 at 1336.89

The dollar has eased off of its session high, but it is still up 0.7% for the day. Stocks remain stuck near their session lows.
This session's slide has heated up the Volatility Index, which has spiked 7% higher today. It's still shy of its 10-day high, however, and remains just about flat for the year.

17:30
EUR/USD tries to recover

EUR/USD fell under $1.4100 to put the lows around $1.4060. But euro now struggling to top close by resistance at $1.4120 level of the week's low prior to the last dip, may be vulnerable to another sell-off, a trader says.

17:19
Dow -124.50 at 12571.42, Nasdaq -31.06 at 2831.98, S&P -12.21 at 1336.44

The major equity averages are now all down about 1%. Their weakness comes amid a rally by the greenback, which is now sporting a 0.8% gain. That puts the buck at its best level in more than a month.
Financials remain in the worst shape. The sector's 1.2% drop today has left the sector facing a potential weekly loss of 1.8%.

16:50
US session review: Pound declines versus Euro, Dollar on rate

The pound weakened after data showed economic growth in Germany and France exceeded estimates and a report said U.K. living standards will fall, spurring bets that euro-region interest rates will outpace increases in Britain.
German gross domestic product jumped 1.5% in the first quarter compared with the previous three months, and French GDP rose 1%, exceeding economists’ median estimates of 0.9% and 0.6% respectively.


“The U.K. economy looks pretty lackluster compared to the likes of Germany and France, which supports the view that rates are going to rise faster in the euro zone,” said Neil Jones at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd.. “That’s going to keep the pound among the laggards of the currency world.”
The Bank of England left its main interest rate at a record low of 0.5% on May 5.
European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet signaled on the same day that policy makers may raise borrowing costs after June, following a decision to keep their main rate at 1.25%.
“There might not be a double-dip recession, but the U.K. economy is certainly facing a period of stagnation,” said Jones. “That’s not going to be helped by raising interest rates. The small size of the anticipated rate increase won’t do much to inflation, which is mainly imported, so it would be better to just keep rates on hold.”
The Confederation of British Industry lowered its economic growth estimates for the U.K. on May 9, saying gross domestic product would expand 1.7% this year compared with a February estimate of 1.8%.
The U.K. economic outlook may worsen further as Prime Minister David Cameron’s coalition government battles a fiscal deficit running at almost 10% of gross domestic product by raising taxes and implementing public spending cuts.
The central bank said this week that inflation may reach 5% later this year, more than double its 2% target, even while risks to economic growth remain “skewed to the downside.” Inflation expectedly slowed to 4% in March from a year earlier, up from 4.4% the previous month, the U.K. office for National Statistics said April 12.


16:38
GOLD:

Spot gold holds at $1485.25/oz on the low side of the day's $1483.46 to $1516.40 range. Gold holds above last week's lows ($1462.40). In addition to last week's low, the 55-day moving average comes in around $1461.20 Friday, which should also act as larger support. Gold last traded below its 55-day in February.

15:30
OIL:

NYMEX June light sweet crude oil futures hold down $0.43 at $98.54 per barrel after trading in a $97.87 to $100.70 range. After the fast-paced $20.20 tumble from the 31-month high of $114.83 (May 2) to last Friday's low of $94.63, the front contract has held in a $95.25 (May 12) to $104.60 (May 11) range.

14:47
GBP/USD under pressure

GBP/USD exposed bids between $1.6235/15 and triggered stops below $1.6230. Rate printed low at $1.6210 before bouncing back to $1.6230. Demand said to remain in place around the $1.6215/10 area, more toward $1.6200 ahead of stronger area between $1.6170/50. Resistance remains at $1.6290/00.

14:29
US: May prelim Rtrs/U-Mich consumer data

current conds 80.2 vs 82.5, and expectations 67.4 vs 61.6. The 1y infl expectations are 4.4%, 5y at 3.0%.

14:21
Dow -23.54 at 12672.38, Nasdaq -7.44 at 2855.60, S&P -1.24 at 1347.41
13:29
Before the bell:

U.S. stocks were poised to open slightly higher Friday, as commodities continue to gain ground.


A report from the government released Friday showed that consumer prices rose at an annual rate of 3.2% in April, with the bulk of increases coming from higher gas prices.
Stocks were getting some support from commodities, which were trending higher for a second day.
Gold futures for June delivery rose 0.1% to $1,508.80 an ounce. And silver futures for July delivery rose 2.5% to $35.66 an ounce.
Oil for June delivery gained 1.5% to $100.40 a barrel.
Companies: Shares of Yahoo (YHOO, Fortune 500) were down 6% in premarket trade after the company offered up more information about how it restructured Alipay. Yahoo was the worst performer on the S&P 500 Wednesday as investors grew cautious after a regulatory filing raised questions about the value of Yahoo's China-based assets.
The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury was little changed, with the yield at 3.23%.
World markets:

12:31
US: Apr CPI +0.4%, core +0.2% (+0.1854% unrounded) for +3.2% YOY overall and +1.3% YOY core.
12:16
European session:

The euro advanced against the dollar as a report showed the region’s economic growth accelerated to the fastest pace since the second quarter of 2010, bolstering the case for further central bank interest-rate increases.
The common currency climbed versus all but two its 16 most- traded peers. Gross domestic product in the 17-member euro area rose 0.8 percent from the fourth quarter, powered by forecast- topping expansion in Germany and France.
German gross domestic product jumped 1.5 percent from the previous three months and the French economy grew 1 percent, exceeding economists’ median estimates of 0.9 percent and 0.6 percent, respectively. The European Union raised its forecast for 2011 euro-region inflation to 2.6 percent from 2.2 percent.
“Economic fundamentals in Europe are resilient,” said Kengo Suzuki, manager of the foreign bond department in Tokyo at Mizuho Securities Co. “It supports expectations for a series of interest-rate increases.”
The pound weakened after a report by the Institute for Fiscal Studies said U.K. living standards will fall, spurring bets that monetary policy tightening by the Bank of England will lag behind that of the euro region.
Living standards will decline as inflation outstrips income growth and government spending cuts crimp welfare payments, the report said.

EUR/USD: gained up to $1.4340. before eased back to $1.4280.

GBP/USD: founв the base at $1.6240 before traded within $1.6260/70.

USD/JPY: posted session low at Y80.40, before jumped up to Y80.80.

US data starts at 1230GMT, when consumer prices are expected to reflect continued price pressures from food and energy, though to a lesser extent than in at the wholesale level. Overall CPI is forecast to rise 0.4% in April, while core CPI is expected to rise 0.1%. Then, at 1355GMT, the Michigan Sentiment Index is expected to rise slightly to a reading of 70.0 in early-May.

12:06
Orders desk:

EUR/USD
Offers: $1.4350, $1.4365/70, $1.4400, $1.4420/25, $1.4440/50
Bids: $1.4280/70, $1.4245/40, $1.4225/20, $1.4185/80,

USD/JPY
Offers: Y81.10/20, Y81.30/35, Y81.65/70
Bids: Y80.25, Y80.15, Y80.05/00


GBP/USD
Offers: $1.6320/25, $1.6345/50, $1.6380/85
Bids: $1.6235/15, $1.6200, $1.6165/50, $1.6100

11:45
EUR/USD eases further

The pare tested demand placed between $1.4280/70, the area covering the 55-dma at $1.4272/70, with market continuing to slowly pare back euro longs ahead of the NY open. A break of $1.4270 to allow for a deeper move toward $1.4245/40 ($1.4244 61.8% $1.4184/1.4340). Resistance remains at $1.4340/50.

11:04
EUROPEAN COMMISSION: Raises 2011 emu hicp fcast to +2.6% from +1.8%
  • Commission ups 2012 emu hicp fcast to +1.8% from +1.7%;
  • Commission ups 2011 germany hicp fcast to +2.6% from +1.8%;
  • Commission 2012 germany hicp fcast unchanged at +2.0%;
  • Commission ups 2011 france hicp fcast to +2.2% from +1.6%;
  • Commission ups 2012 france hicp fcast to +1.7% from +1.6%;
  • Commission hikes uk 2011 hicp to 4.1% vs previous 3.4%;
  • Commission ups 2011 italy hicp fcast to +2.6% from +1.8%;
  • Commission ups 2011 spain hicp fcast to +3.0% from +1.5%;
  • Commission 2012 spain hicp fcast unchanged at +1.4%;
  • Commission ups 2011 portugal hicp fcast to +3.4% from +2.3%;
  • Commission ups 2012 portugal hicp fcast to +2.0% from +1.3%;
  • Commission ups 2011 ireland hicp fcast to +1.0% from +0.4%;
  • Commission ups 2012 ireland hicp fcast to +0.7% from +0.6%;
  • Commission ups 2011 greece hicp fcast to +2.4% from +2.2%;
  • Commission 2012 greece hicp fcast unchanged at +0.5%.
10:44
GBP/USD under pressure

Sinks back toward overnight lows at $1.6240. Demand seen between $1.6240/35 (Asia/NY lows), with talk of system stops placed on break, but decent demand said to be sitting behind this area, ahead of the bids between $1.6230/20. while $1.6220/10 should hold on first attempt.

10:30
CitiFXTechs have gone long euro-yen at Y115.05, looking for a move to Y117.00, placing stops at Y114.45.
09:27
FTSE +0.91% 5,999, CAC +1.00% 4,063, DAX +0.75% 7,500
09:14
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

EUR/USD $1.4125, $1.4170, $1.4200, $1.4400
USD/JPY Y80.00, Y81.00, Y81.30, Y81.50, Y82.00, Y83.00
EUR/JPY Y114.35, Y112.30
GBP/USD $1.6100, $1.6400
EUR/GBP stg0.8800
AUD/USD $1.0700, $1.0860

09:01
EMU: GDP 1Q +0,8% q/q, +2,5% y/y
08:38
ECB Paramo: "Fiscal policies must control over-spending"

  • stress tests essential for health of banking systems;
  • banks must stress-test their ops constantl;
  • steps to improve transparency in banking system key.

08:03
Asian stocks close:

Shanghai Composite +0.95% 2,871.03
Nikkei -0.70% 9648.77
Hang Seng +0.67% 23,228

07:59
Asian session: The yen rose

The dollar rose toward a six-week high against the euro after Treasury yields climbed and economists projected that U.S. consumer confidence improved, boosting demand for assets in the world’s largest economy.
The greenback headed for a weekly gain against 12 of its 16 major counterparts before a report next week forecast to show U.S. housing starts advanced last month. 
The yen rose versus the euro as tightening measures by China spurred drops in Asian stocks, supporting demand for Japan’s currency as a refuge.
China’s central bank raised reserve requirements yesterday after reports showed inflation and lending exceeded economists’ estimates in April, with consumer prices gaining more than 5 percent. The half-point increase in banks’ reserve requirements takes effect May 18 and will boost levels for the nation’s biggest lenders to a record 21 percent.

EUR/USD: the pair shown low in the field of $1,4180 then grown.

GBP/USD: the pair  shown low in the field of $1,6240 then grown.

USD/JPY: the pair decreased in around Y80,40.

European data starts early, with the France flash Q1 GDP data, which is expected to come in at 0.6% q/q, 1.8% y/y. This is the first of the major Q1 flash GDP releases due this morning, which are likely to be seized upon by the press as showing the widening spread between the performance of the major economies and those on the periphery. The German GDP at 0600GMT is expected to show a rise of 1% q/q, 4.3% y/y. 
US data starts at 1230GMT, when consumer prices are expected to reflect continued price pressures from food and energy, though to a lesser extent than in at the wholesale level. Overall CPI is forecast to rise 0.4% in April, while core CPI is expected to rise 0.1%. Then, at 1355GMT, the Michigan Sentiment Index is expected to rise slightly to a reading of 70.0 in early-May. 

07:29
Forex: Thursday's review

The euro erased a decline against the dollar as Lucas Papademos, a former European Central Bank vice-president who’s now an adviser to the Greek government, said that restructuring the country’s debt is not necessary. 
The shared currency earlier slid versus the greenback after officials from the European Union, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund began yesterday their fourth evaluation of Greece’s economy.
EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said the delegation will need “a few weeks” to determine Greece’s financing needs and the potential size of any new aid.
The yen strengthened against most of its major counterparts as falling commodities and stocks prompted investors to unwind bets on higher-yielding assets.
Australia’s dollar was among the worst performers versus the greenback as China raised its banks’ reserve requirements to restrain prices, adding to the likelihood its growth will slow, and raw materials slid for a second day. The euro touched the lowest level against the dollar in more than six weeks as concern persisted that Greece will have to restructure debt.

EUR/USD: the pair shown low in the field of $1,4130 then grown and finished session in around $1,4240.

GBP/USD: the pair shown low in the field of $1,6230 then grown and finished session in around $1,6290.

USD/JPY: the pair bargained within the limits of Y80,70-Y81,30.

European data starts early, with the France flash Q1 GDP data, which is expected to come in at 0.6% q/q, 1.8% y/y. This is the first of the major Q1 flash GDP releases due this morning, which are likely to be seized upon by the press as showing the widening spread between the performance of the major economies and those on the periphery. The German GDP at 0600GMT is expected to show a rise of 1% q/q, 4.3% y/y. 
US data starts at 1230GMT, when consumer prices are expected to reflect continued price pressures from food and energy, though to a lesser extent than in at the wholesale level. Overall CPI is forecast to rise 0.4% in April, while core CPI is expected to rise 0.1%. Then, at 1355GMT, the Michigan Sentiment Index is expected to rise slightly to a reading of 70.0 in early-May. 

06:41
Stocks: Thursday's review

Japanese stocks fell for the first time in three days as commodities tumbled amid concern that global inflation may curb economic growth.
Inpex Corp., the nation’s largest oil explorer, slumped 3.6 percent, even after saying full-year profit advanced.
Crude oil for June delivery plunged 5.5 percent to settle at $98.21 a barrel yesterday in New York after an Energy Department report showed that U.S. supplies surged as demand for fuel slipped.
Mitsubishi Corp. (8058), Japan’s biggest commodities trader, slid 2 percent to 2,112 yen and Mitsui & Co., a trading house that counts commodities as its largest source of profit, sank 1.4 percent to 1,391 yen.
Copper yesterday fell to the lowest price in five months after China reported inflation remains above the government’s target, signaling further monetary-policy tightening that may curb metal demand. Consumer prices rose 5.3 percent from a year earlier and banks extended 740 billion yuan ($114 billion) of local-currency loans, according to reports yesterday from the statistics bureau and central bank.
Nikon Corp., a camera maker that gets a quarter of its revenue from Europe, lost 1.9 percent as the euro weakened against the yen on concern European leaders are slowing the drive to grant Greece additional aid. Tokyo Electric Power Co. plunged 8.8 percent after saying fuel rods are fully exposed in the No. 1 reactor at its stricken Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear plant.

European stocks fell, sending the benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index down for the first time in three days, led by a selloff in metal and oil producers as commodities extended yesterday’s rout.
BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP) and Rio Tinto Group each lost more than 1 percent after copper slumped to a five-month low yesterday. Insurers declined as companies from Allianz SE (ALV) to Aegon NA reported earnings. Thales SA (HO) dropped 2.7 percent on a report that the company may make a cash contribution as part of an asset swap with Safran SA.
Commodities fell for a second day as investors speculated that China will raise interest rates to contain inflation, curbing demand for raw materials. The People’s Bank of China today raised its lenders’ reserve requirements for the fifth time this year to restrain prices.

U.S. stock-index futures declined as Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO)’s earnings forecast missed analysts’ estimates and commodities tumbled for a second day after China raised banks’ reserve requirements.
Cisco, the world’s largest maker of networking gear, lost 3 percent in early New York trading. Symantec Corp. (SYMC), the biggest maker of security software, slid 1.1 percent.
Copper tumbled to a five-month low in London as China raised banks’ reserve requirements for the fifth time this year to restrain prices, adding to the likelihood that growth will slow in the world’s second-biggest economy.
Reserve ratios will increase 0.5 percentage point from May 18, the People’s Bank of China said. The requirements currently stand at 20.5 percent for the biggest lenders.
Crude for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell as much as 2.6 percent to $95.68 a barrel, extending yesterday’s 5.5 percent plunge. The International Energy Agency trimmed its 2011 global oil demand forecast for the first time as this year’s price rally begins to weigh on consumption.

06:19
Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3: Y81.70 (May 2 high) 
Resistance 2: Y81.30 (May 11-12 high) 
Resistance 1:Y81.10 (session high) 
Current price: Y80.63
Support 1:Y80.40 (session low)  
Support 2:Y80.15 (May 10 low)  
Support 3:Y79.55 (May 5 low)  
Comments: the pair decreased. The nearest support - Y80.40. Below losses are possible to Y80.15. The nearest resistance - Y81.10. Above growth is possible to Y81.30.

06:02
Germany: GDP 1Q +1,5% q/q, +4,9% y/y
05:52
Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.8960 (resistance line from Feb 11)
Resistance 2: Chf0.8900 (May 12 high)
Resistance 1: Chf0.8880 (session high)
Current price: Chf0.8861
Support 1: Chf0.8820 (May 12 low)
Support 2: Chf0.8780 (May 11 low)
Support 3: Chf0.8700 (May 10 low)
Comments: the pair grown. The nearest resistance - Chf0.8880. Above is located Chf0.8900. The nearest support - Chf0,8820. Below loss mat extend to Chf0.8780. 

05:50
Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.6440 (resistance line on May 2)
Resistance 2: $ 1.6380 (May 12 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.6295 (session high)
Current price: $1.6245
Support 1 : $1.6220/30 (Apr 12, 13, 19  and May 12 low, session low)
Support 2 : $1.6160 (Apr 18 low)
Support 3 : $1.6030 (Apr 5 low)
Comments: the pair decreased. The nearest support $1.6220/30. Below is possible testings of around $1.6160. The nearest resistance - area $1.6295. Above growth is possible to $1.6380. 

05:42
Техника по USD/CHF

 

Сопротивление 3: Chf0.8960                    (линия сопротивления от 11 февраля)
Сопротивление 2: Chf0.8900                   (максимум 12 мая)
Сопротивление 1: Chf0.8880                   (сессионный максимум)

Текущая цена: Chf0.8861
Поддержка 1: Chf0.8820         (минимум 12 мая)
Поддержка 2: Chf0.8780         (минимум 11 мая)
Поддержка 3: Chf0.8700         (минимум 10 мая)
Комментарии: пара вырослаБлижайшее сопротивление - Chf0.8880. Выше расположен уровень Chf0.8900. Ближайшая поддержка - Chf0,8820. Ниже потери могут увеличится до Chf0.8780. 

 

05:28
Schedule for today, Friday, May 13 2011:

06:00 Germany GDP (Q1) flash 0.8% 0.4%
06:00 Germany GDP (Q1) flash Y/Y 4.2% 4.0%
09:00 EU(17) GDP (Q1) flash 0.5% 0.3%
09:00 EU(17) GDP (Q1) flash Y/Y 2.2% 2.0%
12:30 USA CPI (April) 0.4% 0.5%
12:30 USA CPI (April) Y/Y - 2.7%
12:30 USA CPI excluding food and energy (April) 0.1% 0.1%
12:30 USA CPI excluding food and energy (April) Y/Y - 1.2%
13:55 USA Michigan sentiment index (May) preliminary 70.0 69.8

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