Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 12-01-2011.

It says "economic activity continued to expand moderately from Nov through Dec" and all 12 districts gained, vs 10 gaining and 2 mixed in the Dec report. Mfg, retail, & nonfinancial services were better than financial svcs or real estate. Mfg continued recovery in all areas; retail sales were up YOY in all areas. Transport and finance were mixed. Residential real estate mkts remained weak across all Districts. Comm'l construction was subdued or slow. Some costs rose, but with only modest pass-through into final prices. Labor markets appeared to be firming somewhat with modest hiring beyond replacement, but pressure on wages was very limited. Most contacts had a positive outlook. Book was
summarized at Boston Fed and based on info collected on/before Jan 3.

Has traded to Y109.00 area as euro continues to hold a firm tone, stops earlier flushed in this pair atop Y108.60 adding some momentum. Offers reported earlier at Y109.00/10. Support eyed at Y108.50.

A couple of successful debt offerings in Europe helped the bourses there bound higher. That has perpetuated a positive tone among domestic market participants that has sent the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 to new two-year highs.
Though buying has been broad based, financials have been the biggest beneficiaries of this session's bounce. The sector is up 1.4%.
Even telecom is up with a nice gain. The sector's 0.7% advance follows four straight sessions of losses, which combined for a 6.0% drop.
Such strength has helped each of the headline indices register new two-year highs. However, the Nasdaq has been lagging its counterparts by a modest margin, despite support from large-cap tech.
An appetite for the relative risk of stocks has caused some rotation out of the dollar, which now trails a collection of competing currencies by 0.7%.

The euro advanced for a third day versus the dollar as Portugal’s borrowing costs fell at an auction and on speculation European leaders are considering an expansion of aid for nations struggling to finance their debt.
Portugal sold 599 million euros ($778 million) of bonds due in 2020 at a yield of 6.716 percent, the country’s debt management agency said today. That compares with 6.806 percent at the previous auction on Nov. 10. Investors asked for 3.2 times the amount of 10-year bonds sold, up from 2.1 times at the November sale. Spain and Italy will sell bonds tomorrow.
The 17-nation currency rose against most of its major counterparts as investors exited bets that it would weaken before a meeting of euro-area finance ministers next week.


“This is a case of taking back euro shorts,” said Alan Ruskin, global head of Group-of-10 foreign-exchange strategy at Deutsche Bank AG in New York. “There’s a natural inclination to be cautious in terms of not wanting to be too heavily exposed on the short euro side.”
European leaders are contemplating aid for Portugal, debt buybacks, lower interest rates on rescue loans and guarantees against excessive debt, according to two people with direct knowledge of the talks.
The plan, which may include a loan to Portugal of about 60 billion euros ($78 billion) and purchases of outstanding Greek debt, would mark an attempt to contain the crisis that has frustrated unprecedented efforts by policy makers to calm markets and raised questions on the health of the euro economy.
Euro-area finance ministers will discuss elements of the package next week, though the debate is so sensitive in Germany that decisions may wait until a scheduled summit of political leaders on Feb. 4, said the people, who declined to be named because the deliberations are private.
Chancellor Angela Merkel indicated that Germany is ready to revise the terms of a 750 billion-euro ($973 billion) rescue fund for indebted states, saying Europe’s biggest economy will do whatever is necessary to protect the euro.

EUR/USD close to bid interest at $1.2960. This sits ahead of earlier reported US name demand at $1.2950. Rate currently trades around $1.2972, off pullback lows of $1.2961.

Data released
09:30     UK     Trade in goods (November), bln    -8.7    -8.3    -8.6 (-8.5)
09:30     UK     Non-EU trade (November), bln    -5.0    -4.9    -5.1 (-5.0)
10:00     EU(16)     Industrial production (November)    1.2%    0.6%    0.7%
10:00     EU(16)     Industrial production (November) Y/Y     7.4%    5.9%    7.1 (6.9)%

The euro fell against the Swiss franc, snapping a two-day gain, amid speculation today’s sale of Portuguese government bonds won’t be sufficient to prevent the region’s debt crisis from deepening.
The European currency erased an advance versus the dollar and Portuguese 10-year debt declined after the bond sale, at which borrowing costs fell and demand increased. Spain and Italy are scheduled to hold auctions tomorrow.
“It was a very healthy auction but the euro is falling,” said Simon Derrick, chief currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon Corp. “If there is a flurry of concern about Spain you could see the euro have another turn to the downside but I like the fact that they have proved more effective at crisis management.”
The yield on the 10-year Portuguese bond was eight basis points higher at 7.09 percent.
European governments are considering aid for Portugal, debt buybacks, lower interest rates on rescue loans and guarantees against excessive debt as part of a package to quell the financial crisis, according to two people with direct knowledge of the talks.
The plan, which may include a loan to Portugal of about 60 billion euros ($78 billion) and purchases of outstanding Greek debt, would mark an attempt to contain the crisis that has frustrated unprecedented efforts by policy makers to calm markets and raised questions about the health of the 17-nation euro economy.
Euro-area finance ministers will discuss elements of the package next week.
Portugal today raised 599 million euros in the sale of 10- year bonds at an average yield of 6.72 percent, down from a yield of 6.81 percent at a sale on Nov. 10. Portugal also sold 650 million euros of notes due in 2014 at 5.40 percent.
Some EU leaders have suggested the EU’s fund could be used to buy government bonds or to offer shorter-term credits.

EUR/USD printed highs on $1.3047 ahead of the auction before it fell to $1.2970 lows and re,ains under pressure.

GBP/USD tested highs on $1.5680, but failed to hold above, retreating to $1.5600.

USD/JPY challenged Y83.00 before recovered to Y83.37.

US data starts at 1200GMT with the weekly MBA Mortgage  Application Index. This is followed at 1330GMT with the December  Import/Export Price Index data.
The weekly EIA Crude Oil Stocks data is then due, at 1530GMT.

GBP/USD recovers from lows of $1.5583 and extend above $1.5600, though seen meeting some headwind sales ahead of $1.5610. A move above to meet further sell interest at $1.5620 ahead of $1.5630/35 and $1.5650. Support now seen in place between $1.5580/70.

Oil surged higher to close 21-DMA, now initial support at $90.06. The move comes after break through bull-flag yesterday, which targets a measured move to $95.00 area. The daily studies are taking on a bullish tone, with slow stochastics confirming a buy-signal and
momentum suggests upcoming cross of the key "zero-line".

The euro erased its advance against the dollor to trade little changed at $1.2975 as of 11:09 a.m. in London. It earlier reached $1.3046.
BNP Paribas strategists said they expected the euro's upside to remain limited at the $1.3000/40 area, which will provide renewed selling opportunity with a target for a break below $1.2875 and then $1.2590.

GBP/USD extended pullback lows to $1.5585, as rate reacted to the sell off in euro-dollar during the wait for Portugal bond auction results. Cable currently trades around $1.5588 after triggering support at $1.5590 and stops below. Currently support is at $1.5575/70. Resistance seen back at $1.5650 ahead of $1.5680/85.

GBP/USD extended pullback lows to $1.5585, as rate reacted to the sell off in euro-dollar during the wait for Portugal bond auction results. Cable currently trades around $1.5588 after triggering support at $1.5590 and stops below. Currently support is at $1.5575/70. Resistance seen back at $1.5650 ahead of $1.5680/85.

GBP/USD продолжает отступать и уже торгуется ниже $1.5600 - на $1.5588. Курс снижается на фоне продаж евро после аукциона португальских бондов. курс прошел утренний минимум на $1.5598 и поглотил стопы. теперь целью снижения может стать зона $1.5575/70. Сопротивление расположено на $1.5650, далее - на $1.5680/85.

• E650mln of 3.60% Oct 2014 OT; average yield 5.396%, cover 2.6

• E599mln of 4.80% June 2020 OT; average yield 6.716%, cover 3.2

Continues to struggle with resistance $1385/87 despite an overall weaker dollar and stronger Crude oil prices. Gold currently trades $1384.70/00 after a very brief high of $1387.10.

EUR/USD: $1.3040, $1.3050, $1.2925, $1.2900, $1.3175
USD/JPY: Y83.25, Y83.00, Y82.85, Y82.00, Y81.70, Y83.55, Y84.00
GBP/USD: $1.5420
AUD/USD: $0.9800, $0.9820, $0.9855, $1.0000
AUD/JPY: Y81.75

Higher again and targeting resistance at $92.07 as the February contract posts a fresh week high of $91.70. Crude currently trades $91.60/65.

The shared currency climbed to the highest in almost a week against the Swiss franc before a bond auction in Spain tomorrow that may see demand from China, which has expressed interest in buying the nation’s debt. The Australian dollar fell to a one- month low against the greenback amid concern worsening floods will slow growth and keep the Reserve Bank from raising interest rates.
The euro rebounded yesterday after Japan said it plans to buy bonds issued by the European Union’s financial-aid funds, echoing a pledge by China to help stem the region’s debt crisis. Widening budget gaps and a surge in bond yields forced Greece and Ireland to accept bailouts last year.
Australia’s currency weakened versus all of its 16 major counterparts as Brisbane faced its worst floods since 1893 and rivers swollen with heavy rain raced toward the city, triggering evacuations.
Canada’s dollar gained for a fourth day versus its U.S. counterpart before a report today that may show Canadian new- home prices rose for a fourth month, adding to signs the economic recovery is building momentum.

EUR/USD: the pair become stronger in around $1,3000.

GBP/USD: the pair bargained above a mark $1,5600.

USD/JPY: the pair decreased in around Y83,00.


European data starts at 0700GMT Wednesday with the 2010 German  GDP data, which should confirm the decent rebound with a 3.6% y/y  reading. France releases it's November balance of payments data after that, at 0745GMT, while the VDMA new machinery orders data is due at 0900GMT. EMU industrial output data follows at 1000GMT and is expected to show a gain of 0.5% m/m for November, 5.9% y/y.
UK data at 0930GMT includes Trade data, where the median forecast for the total trade balance is -stg3.8 billion with Global goods trade at -stg8.4 billion.
US data starts at 1200GMT with the weekly MBA Mortgage  Application Index. This is followed at 1330GMT with the December  Import/Export Price Index data.
The weekly EIA Crude Oil Stocks data is then due, at 1530GMT.

The euro rallied the most against the yen in almost six weeks as Japan planned to buy bonds issued by Europe’s financial-aid funds, joining China in assisting the region as it confronts its debt crisis. The euro also gained versus the New Zealand dollar and the South African rand as Japan’s Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said it’s appropriate for his nation to help nations such as Ireland.
Europe’s financial aid funds for distressed governments will sell bonds to raise as much as 34.1 billion euros ($44.2 billion) for Ireland in 2011 and 14.9 billion euros in 2012, the European Commission said last month.
Australia’s dollar fell against all of its most-traded counterparts as rising floodwaters rushed toward the coastal city of Brisbane, where evacuations were under way.
The greenback rose versus the yen for the first time in three days before figures expected to show the world’s largest economy is recovering.
U.S. retail sales climbed 0.8% last month, the same amount as in November, according to the median forecast of economists. The report from the Commerce Department is due Jan. 14.

EUR/USD: the pair bargained within the limits of $1,2905-$ 1,2990.

GBP/USD: on results of yesterday's session the pair become stronger in around $1,5600.

USD/JPY: on results of yesterday's session of loss of yen against dollar have made about 50 points.


European data starts at 0700GMT Wednesday with the 2010 German  GDP data, which should confirm the decent rebound with a 3.6% y/y  reading. France releases it's November balance of payments data after that, at 0745GMT, while the VDMA new machinery orders data is due at 0900GMT. EMU industrial output data follows at 1000GMT and is expected to show a gain of 0.5% m/m for November, 5.9% y/y.
UK data at 0930GMT includes Trade data, where the median forecast for the total trade balance is -stg3.8 billion with Global goods trade at -stg8.4 billion.
US data starts at 1200GMT with the weekly MBA Mortgage  Application Index. This is followed at 1330GMT with the December  Import/Export Price Index data.
The weekly EIA Crude Oil Stocks data is then due, at 1530GMT.

Most Japanese stocks rose, driving the Topix index to its highest close in almost eight months, after brokerages boosted investment ratings or share-price forecasts on makers of steel and tires.
Steelmakers gained the most among the 33 industry groups in the Topix after Credit Suisse raised its industry rating to “overweight” from “market weight.”
Nippon Steel jumped 3.8 percent to 303 yen, the biggest single contributor to the Topix. Kobe Steel Ltd. advanced 1.9 percent to 216 yen and JFE Holdings Inc., Japan’s No. 2 steelmaker by sales, gained 2.5 percent to 2,907 yen.
Credit Suisse also boosted its ratings on Nippon Steel and JFE to “outperform” from “neutral,” and on Kobe Steel to “neutral” from “underperform.”
Bridgestone Corp., the world’s largest tiremaker, gained 1.8 percent after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. raised its target price.
Canon Inc., the world’s largest camera maker, sank 1.4 percent after the euro weakened against the yen to its lowest level since September, damping the outlook for export earnings.
Mitsubishi Corp., Japan’s biggest commodities trader, rallied 1.4 percent to 2,382 yen. Mitsui & Co., a trading house that counts commodities as its largest source of profit, advanced 0.9 percent to 1,430 yen.
Resona Holdings Inc., Japan’s fourth-largest bank, plunged 7.3 percent to 485 yen, the steepest decline in the Nikkei 225. The shares fell for a second day after the company said Jan. 7 that it aims to raise as much as 575 billion yen ($6.9 billion) in a public share sale this month.

European stocks surged to a 28-month high as Japan pledged to buy euro-area bonds, joining China in helping to alleviate the region’s debt crisis.
Portugal, Spain and Italy are scheduled to sell debt this week following a slump in euro-area government bonds last week.
Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said today it’s “appropriate” for his nation to buy bonds issued by Europe’s financial-aid funds later this month. Japan will use its foreign-exchange reserves to buy more than a fifth of the bonds that the European Financial Stability Facility will issue later in January, Noda said.
China has also voiced support for Europe, with Vice Premier Li Keqiang last week expressing confidence in Spain’s financial markets and pledging to buy more of that country’s debt.
HSBC Holdings Plc, Europe’s largest bank, and Barclays Plc rallied more than 2 percent after analysts recommended the shares.
Barclays increased 5.5 percent to 292 pence as BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research raised its price estimate for Britain’s third-biggest bank by 35 percent to 500 pence and reiterated its “buy” recommendation.
Mining companies advanced as copper climbed in London and JPMorgan Chase & Co. upgraded BHP Billiton Ltd.
Siemens AG rose 3 percent after the engineering company said it’s confident of reaching its full-year targets.
Continental AG rallied 4 percent to 60.83 euros. Europe’s second-biggest tiremaker beat sales and earnings goals for 2010 as unusually snowy weather in Europe propelled fourth-quarter winter-tire sales.
ARM Holdings Plc jumped 7 percent to 497.5 pence after CNBC “Mad Money” host Jim Cramer recommended the designer of chips for Apple Inc.’s iPhone as one of seven technology takeover targets. Morgan Stanley yesterday named ARM as one of its top picks for chipmakers in 2011.
Alstom SA increased 6.3 percent to 37.20 euros after Morgan Stanley upgraded the maker of trains and turbines to “overweight” from “equal weight” and raised its price estimate for the shares by 49 percent to 52 euros.

U.S. stocks closed higher Tuesday as investors' attention turned toward corporate earnings. Japan's pledge to buy eurozone bonds helped ease European debt jitters and give underlying support to market sentiment.
Dow component Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500) kicked off the reporting period late Thursday with better-than expected results. Financial Network market strategist Brian Gendreau said he wouldn't be shocked to see quarterly earnings continue to surprise on the upside, which would push stocks upward.
Sears Holdings (SHLD, Fortune 500) and Apollo Group (APOL) were the big gainers on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. Sears' fourth-quarter and full-year outlook topped analysts' forecasts, while Apollo's quarterly results beat expectations.
Companies: Sears (SHLD, Fortune 500) stock jumped 6.3% after the retailer's fourth-quarter outlook topped forecasts. Sears said it expects to earn between $3.39 and $4.12 per share for the quarter ending Jan. 29. Analysts have been looking for earnings of $3.09 per share. For the year, Sears expects to earn between $130 million and $210 million, or between $1.16 and $1.88 per share.
Apollo Group's (APOL) stock rose 13.4% after the for-profit educator posted fiscal first-quarter earnings that trounced Wall Street expectations despite a 42% drop in new student enrollment during the quarter.
Shares of Tiffany & Co. (TIF) declined 0.6% after the jeweler and luxury goods retailer raised its outlook and posted an 11% rise in sales over the two-month holiday period.
Shares of Talbots (TLB) sank 17.4% Tuesday after the women's retailer posted a 6% drop in same-store sales so far this quarter and lowered its outlook due to weak customer demand.
Lennar (LEN), one of the nation's largest homebuilders, posted quarterly earnings per share of 17 cents before the opening bell. Analysts had forecast 3 cents. Its stock rose nearly 7%.
Shares of Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500) slipped 1%, despite its positive earnings news the night before, amid worries about the aluminum producer's rising raw material supply costs.
Economy: Wholesale inventories fell 0.2% in November, the Commerce Department said. Economists were expecting inventories to have risen 1% during the month, after jumping 1.7% in October.

Resistance 3:Y84.50 (high of December)
Resistance 2:Y83.90 (Dec 21 high)
Resistance 1:Y83,70 (Jan 7 high)
Current price: Y83.07
Support 1:Y83.00 (support line from Jan 4)
Support 2:Y82.65 (38,2 % FIBO Y80,90-Y83,70)
Support 3:Y82.30 (50,0 % FIBO Y80,90-Y83,70)

Comments: the pair bargains in former frameworks.The nearest resistance - Y83,70. Above growth is possible to Y83.90. The nearest support - Y83,00. Below losses are possible to Y82.65.

Resistance 3: Chf0.9915 (Dec 8 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9850 (Dec 13 high)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9785 (Jan 11 high)
Current price: Chf0.9738
Support 1: Chf0.9730 (session low, Jan 10 high)
Support 2: Chf0.9600 (38,2 % FIBO Chf0,9300-Chf0,9785, Jan 7 high)
Support 3: Chf0.9540 (50,0 % FIBO Chf0,9300-Chf0,9785)

Comments: the pair bargains in the field of the reached high. The nearest resistance Chf0,9785. Above is located Chf0.9850. The nearest support Chf0,9730. Below loss may extend to Chf0.9600.

Resistance 3: $ 1.5710 (50.0 % FIBO $1,6300-$ 1,5350)
Resistance 2: $ 1.5710 (38,2 % FIBO $1,6300-$ 1,5350)
Resistance 1: $ 1.5660 (Dec 31 high)
Current price: $1.5627
Support 1 : $1.5590 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.5530 (МА (200) for Н1)
Support 3 : $1.5470 (Jan 10 low)

Comments: the pair bargains above a mark $1,5600. The nearest support - $1,5590. Below decrease is possible to $1.5530. The nearest resistance - $1,5660. Above growth is possible to $1,5710.

Resistance 3: $ 1.3170 (Jan 6 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.3075 (around of Dec 21, 22, 27 and 29 low)
Resistance 1: $ 1.3020 (Jan 7 high)
Current price: $1.2986
Support 1 : $1.2870 (Jan 10 low)
Support 2 : $1.2800 (61,8 % FIBO $1.1870-$ 1.4280)
Support 3 : $1.2640 (low of September)

Comments: the pair bargains in former frameworks. The nearest support - $1,2870. Below decrease is possible to $1.2800. The nearest resistance - $1,3020. Above growth is possible to $1,3075.

09:30     UK Trade in goods     £-3.9B     £-8.2B     
10:00     EMU Industrial Production (YoY)     6.9%     5.9%     
10:00     EMU Industrial production, (MoM)     0.7%     0.5%     
12:00     USA MBA Mortgage Applications     -3.9%         
13:30     USA Import Price Index     3.7%     4.7%     
13:30     Canada New Housing Price Index     -0.9%         
15:30     USA EIA Crude Oil Stocks change     -4.2M         
19:00     USA Fed's Beige Book