Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
01:30 | Australia | Building Permits, m/m | March | 19.1% | -14% |
05:45 | Switzerland | SECO Consumer Climate | Quarter II | -4 | -3 |
06:30 | Switzerland | Consumer Price Index (MoM) | April | 0.5% | 0.2% |
06:30 | Switzerland | Consumer Price Index (YoY) | April | 0.7% | 0.7% |
08:00 | Germany | German Buba President Weidmann Speaks | |||
08:30 | United Kingdom | Purchasing Manager Index Services | April | 48.9 | 50.5 |
09:00 | Eurozone | Producer Price Index, MoM | March | 0.1% | 0% |
09:00 | Eurozone | Producer Price Index (YoY) | March | 3% | 3% |
09:00 | Eurozone | Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y | April | 0.8% | 1% |
09:00 | Eurozone | Harmonized CPI, Y/Y | April | 1.4% | 1.6% |
12:30 | U.S. | Average workweek | April | 34.4 | 34.5 |
12:30 | U.S. | Manufacturing Payrolls | April | -6 | 10 |
12:30 | U.S. | Government Payrolls | April | 14 | |
12:30 | U.S. | Goods Trade Balance, $ bln. | March | -80.4 | |
12:30 | U.S. | Average hourly earnings | April | 0.1% | 0.3% |
12:30 | U.S. | Labor Force Participation Rate | April | 63% | 62.9% |
12:30 | U.S. | Private Nonfarm Payrolls | April | 182 | 180 |
12:30 | U.S. | Unemployment Rate | April | 3.8% | 3.8% |
12:30 | U.S. | Nonfarm Payrolls | April | 196 | 185 |
13:45 | U.S. | Services PMI | April | 55.3 | 52.9 |
14:00 | U.S. | ISM Non-Manufacturing | April | 56.1 | 57 |
14:15 | U.S. | FOMC Member Charles Evans Speaks | |||
15:30 | U.S. | FOMC Member Clarida Speaks | |||
17:00 | U.S. | Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | May | 805 | |
17:45 | U.S. | FOMC Member Williams Speaks | |||
20:00 | U.S. | Total Vehicle Sales, mln | April | 17.45 | 17 |
23:45 | U.S. | FOMC Member James Bullard Speaks |
Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
01:30 | Australia | Building Permits, m/m | March | 19.1% | -14% |
05:45 | Switzerland | SECO Consumer Climate | Quarter II | -4 | -3 |
06:30 | Switzerland | Consumer Price Index (MoM) | April | 0.5% | 0.2% |
06:30 | Switzerland | Consumer Price Index (YoY) | April | 0.7% | 0.7% |
08:00 | Germany | German Buba President Weidmann Speaks | |||
08:30 | United Kingdom | Purchasing Manager Index Services | April | 48.9 | 50.5 |
09:00 | Eurozone | Producer Price Index, MoM | March | 0.1% | 0% |
09:00 | Eurozone | Producer Price Index (YoY) | March | 3% | 3% |
09:00 | Eurozone | Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y | April | 0.8% | 1% |
09:00 | Eurozone | Harmonized CPI, Y/Y | April | 1.4% | 1.6% |
12:30 | U.S. | Average workweek | April | 34.4 | 34.5 |
12:30 | U.S. | Manufacturing Payrolls | April | -6 | 10 |
12:30 | U.S. | Government Payrolls | April | 14 | |
12:30 | U.S. | Goods Trade Balance, $ bln. | March | -80.4 | |
12:30 | U.S. | Average hourly earnings | April | 0.1% | 0.3% |
12:30 | U.S. | Labor Force Participation Rate | April | 63% | 62.9% |
12:30 | U.S. | Private Nonfarm Payrolls | April | 182 | 180 |
12:30 | U.S. | Unemployment Rate | April | 3.8% | 3.8% |
12:30 | U.S. | Nonfarm Payrolls | April | 196 | 185 |
13:45 | U.S. | Services PMI | April | 55.3 | 52.9 |
14:00 | U.S. | ISM Non-Manufacturing | April | 56.1 | 57 |
14:15 | U.S. | FOMC Member Charles Evans Speaks | |||
15:30 | U.S. | FOMC Member Clarida Speaks | |||
17:00 | U.S. | Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | May | 805 | |
17:45 | U.S. | FOMC Member Williams Speaks | |||
20:00 | U.S. | Total Vehicle Sales, mln | April | 17.45 | 17 |
23:45 | U.S. | FOMC Member James Bullard Speaks |
The U.S. sharply tightened energy sanctions against Iran on Thursday, seeking to cut the Islamic Republic’s exports to zero and ushering in a new era of uncertainty for the oil market, notes CNBC.
Last week, the Trump administration surprised the market by announcing it would not extend the waivers which were granted to eight nations last year, allowing them to import limited quantities of Iranian crude.
Investors and analysts expected Trump to tighten the waivers every six months, allowing China, India, Turkey and other importers to gradually wind down purchases of Iranian crude.
The surprise move to cut off Iran’s exports threatens to wipe out much of the shipments, which have recently totaled more than 1 million barrels per day, or roughly 1% of global consumption. To fill that gap and prevent fuel costs from spiking, Trump has turned to Saudi Arabia, the world’s top oil exporter.
But the Saudis have not made firm commitments and continue to consider extending a six-month agreement to limit crude production with OPEC nations and allied oil producers.
That is raising concerns about a period of tighter supply and higher oil prices.
Morten Lund, an analyst at Nordea Markets, estimates today's messages from the Bank of England's (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) as mixed.
The U.S. Commerce Department reported on Thursday that the value of new factory orders increased 1.9 percent m-o-m in March, following a revised 0.3 percent decline in February (originally a 0.5 percent m-o-m drop). That was the largest advance in factory orders since August 2018.
Economists had forecast a 1.5 percent m-o-m gain.
According to the report, orders for transportation equipment surged 7.0 percent after decreasing 2.9 percent in the prior month, while orders for computers and electronic products rose 2.2 percent after gaining 0.3 percent in February, orders for electrical equipment, appliances and components increased 0.5 percent after advancing 1.4 percent February and orders for machinery edged up 0.1 percent after falling 0.9 percent in the prior month.
Total factory orders excluding transportation, a volatile part of the overall reading, rose 0.8 percent m-o-m in March (compared to a 0.3 percent m-o-m advance in February), while orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, a measure of business spending plans, went up 1.4 percent m-o-m (compared to a flat m-o-m performance in February). The report also showed that shipments of core capital goods were unchanged m-o-m in March, following an increase of 0.3 percent m-o-m in February.
The preliminary data from the U.S. Labour Department showed on Thursday that nonfarm business sector labor productivity in the United States increased 3.6 percent q-o-q in the first quarter of 2019, as output advanced 4.1 percent q-o-q and hours worked rose 0.5 percent q-o-q (seasonally adjusted).
That was the strongest increase in productivity since the third quarter of 2014 and was above economists’ forecast for a 2.2 percent q-o-q gain after a revised 1.3 percent q-o-q increase in the fourth quarter of 2018 (originally a 1.9 percent q-o-q surge).
In y-o-y terms, the labor productivity rose 2.4 percent in the first quarter, reflecting a 3.9-percent surge in output and a 1.5-percent increase in hours worked.
Meanwhile, unit labor costs in the nonfarm business sector in the first quarter fell 0.9 percent q-o-q compared to a revised 2.5 percent q-o-q advance in the prior quarter (originally a 2 percent q-o-q climb).
Economists had forecast a 1.5 percent gain in first-quarter unit labor costs.
Unit labor costs quarterly decrease reflected primarily a 2.6-percent increase in hourly compensation and a 3.6-percent advance in labor productivity.
Compared to the corresponding period of 2018, unit labor costs rose 0.1 percent, the lowest four-quarter rate since a 1.7-percent decline in the fourth quarter of 2013.
The data from the Labor Department revealed on Thursday the number of applications for unemployment benefits unexpectedly held at a two-month high last week, but the trend remained consistent with tightening labor market conditions.
According to the report, the initial claims for unemployment benefits were unchanged at a seasonally adjusted 230,000 for the week ended April 27.
Economists had expected 215,000 new claims last week.
Claims for the prior week were remained unchanged at 230,000.
Meanwhile, the four-week moving average of claims rose 6,500 to 212,500 last week.
Analysts at ING note that the Bank of England's (BoE) latest forecasts keep the door firmly ajar to further tightening. But the fact that policymakers have opted not to send a stronger hawkish signal to markets emphasizes that this is unlikely to happen in 2019.
The Bank of Egland (BoE) announced its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted unanimously to maintain Bank Rate at 0.75 percent at its latest meeting.
The MPC also voted unanimously to maintain the corporate bond purchases at £10 billion and UK government bond purchases at £435 billion.
In the minutes and the accompanying May Inflation Report, the BoE says:
Amy Yuan Zhuang, an analyst at Nordea Markets, says China's economy is adapting to the new normal and it has transitioned from the export-dependent growth model to a more domestically focused one.
Bill Diviney, senior economist at ABN AMRO, notes that the FOMC kept the target range of the fed funds rate on hold yesterday, though in a technical move, but lowered the IOER by 5bp.
Danske Bank analysts note that although the Chinese PMIs fell back in April but are still clearly off the lows and they continue to look for a moderate economic recovery in 2019.
Leading indicators still point to improvement:
According to analysts at ANZ, next Wednesday the RBNZ will leave the OCR at 1.75%.
“We expect a dovish tone, in line with the March OCR Review, and a downward-sloping OCR forecast track implying around 35bp of OCR cuts by the end of the year. Domestic data has confirmed the economy is cooling but hardly freezing up. Near-term risks around China’s growth – and hence commodity prices – are diminishing. There is no urgency for RBNZ action. Nonetheless we are forecasting an OCR cut in August, with two more to follow, as it becomes incontrovertible that capacity pressures are waning meaningfully before core inflation is where it needs to be.”
Analysts at ING suggest that with the Bank of England set to keep rates on hold today, all the action will be in its statement.
“Skill shortages in certain parts of the economy have seen pay rise at the fastest rates since the crisis. While some momentum has dissipated in the most recent figures, we don’t expect the Bank to significantly change its view that wage growth will keep performing strongly. This means the Bank will likely keep the door ajar to further rate hikes, so the second thing to watch will be the vote count – some headlines have hinted that one or two policymakers may be prepared to vote for an immediate hike at this meeting. But for the committee as a whole, the Brexit delay is likely to reaffirm the concerns expressed in the substantial growth forecast downgrade policymakers made back in February. Investment looks set to stay under pressure, and we suspect this will stop the Bank from hiking rates in 2019.”
The European Union will seek to increase its imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States to 8 billion cubic metres (bcm) per year by 2023, the European Commission said.
U.S. President Donald Trump agreed with European Commission chief Jean-Claude Juncker in July 2018 not to impose tariffs on EU cars as the two sides sought to improve economic ties, including a drive to increase U.S. exports of LNG.
The Commission, which coordinates trade policy for the 28-nation EU, said in a statement that U.S. LNG imports had increased sharply since then, with more than 1.4 bcm in March alone.
“The European Union is ready to facilitate more imports of liquefied natural gas from the U.S., if the market conditions are right and prices competitive,” the Commission said.
Despite rising headwinds and concerns about a slowdown in the global economy, Asia’s developing economies are still set to grow “in a very steady way,” the president of the Asian Development Bank said.
Takehiko Nakao said discussions about a global economic slowdown “may be true especially for advanced economies - but, as far as Asia is concerned, it is still growing very steadily.”
According to the bank’s Asian Development Outlook 2019 report released in April, developing Asia — which comprises 45 nations ranging from China to Tuvalu — is projected to grow by 5.7% this year.
Nakao added that most of the momentum for the region’s growth comes from higher consumption and investment levels. ADB’s report found that consumption’s contribution to growth rose from 3.4% points in 2017 to 3.7% in 2018.
However, the growth outlook for developing Asia is expected to moderate to 5.6% in 2020, according to the report. That is because persistent headwinds that dragged on growth in 2018 — such as the U.S.-China trade war and a slowdown in the Chinese economy — will continue to shape the region’s economic performance in 2019 and 2020, the report said.
April data from IHS Markit/CIPS pointed to a marginal expansion of UK construction output, driven by the fastest rise in house building so far in 2019. Commercial work and civil engineering activity continued to decline, but at slower rates than in March. The forward-looking survey indicators nonetheless remained subdued in April, with new orders falling for the first time since May 2018 and business optimism easing to its lowest since last October. Concerns about the demand outlook resulted in more cautious staff hiring strategies in April, as highlighted by the first fall in workforce numbers since July 2016.
At 50.5 in April, up from 49.7 in March, the headline seasonally adjusted Construction Total Activity Index posted above the neutral 50.0 threshold for the first time since January. The latest reading signalled a modest expansion of overall construction output, which contrasted with the declines seen in each of the previous two months.
According to the report from IHS Markit, the eurozone’s manufacturing sector remained firmly in contraction territory during April.
After accounting for seasonal factors, Manufacturing PMI recorded a level of 47.9, up only marginally on March’s near six-year low of 47.5 (and little changed on the earlier flash PMI reading). The PMI has now posted below the 50.0 no-change mark for three months in succession.
In line with recent trends, the capital and intermediate goods sectors remained the principal areas of weakness in April. Both sectors remained firmly inside contraction territory, despite registering slight improvements in their respective PMI numbers. In contrast, the consumer goods sub-category continued to expand, with growth here rising to a modest level. The volume of new orders received by eurozone manufacturers continued to fall in April. Whilst not deteriorating to the same degree as in March (a 75- month record), the contraction in new work was again sharp. Moreover, export orders remained a source of demand weakness. Purchasing activity was also reduced in April for a fifth successive month, with the rate of contraction matching March’s near six-year record. Despite the ongoing reductions in production, orders, purchasing and work outstanding, a net increase in employment was recorded during April. With demand waning and competitive pressures persisting, manufacturers’ pricing power was limited.
According to analysts at ANZ, it’s not too late to be short AUD as they continue to think that a cut is on the cards next week and history tells us that RBA easing in similar environments still produced a persistent negative reaction in the currency.
“The present level of short positioning in futures would typically temper the downside, but we think this is less of a factor as other indicators like the risk reversal are pointing in the opposite direction. We also don’t think that this positioning would be substantially unwound in the case of ‘no cut’ as inaction will be perceived only as a delay. We recommend selling AUD/CAD at 0.9439, with a target of 0.91. We will reassess at 0.9650.”
The world's demand for gold rose in the first three months of 2019 as central banks diversified away from the dollar amid concern over geopolitical instability, the World Gold Council industry body said.
Global demand increased by 7% to 1,053.3 tonnes in the first quarter compared to a year earlier, the WGC said in a quarterly report on the precious metal.
Purchases by central banks hit 145.5 tonnes of gold, up 68%. That was the best performance for that period since 2013. Gold demand from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) meanwhile jumped 49% to 40.3 tonnes. ETFs witnessed the biggest inflows in the United States and also in Europe. ETF demand for gold was "underpinned by continued geopolitical instability" in Europe, the WGC said.
In the first quarter, jewellery demand rose 1% to 530.3 tonnes on particularly keen demand from India. Bar and coin investment demand however fell 1% to 257.8 tonnes from a year earlier, hit by profit taking in Japan.
Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, suggests that the GBP/USD pair has recently eroded its short term downtrend and 20 day ma and it was enough to negate the current downside pressure on the market.
“The intraday Elliott wave count has turned more positive and we would allow for gains to the 1.3126/1.3188 50% and 61.8% retracements. Dips lower should hold around the 200 day ma at 1.2960. Failure here targets the 1.2865 April low and this in turn protects the February low at 1.2772. It will need to regain 1.3217 (25th January high) to introduce scope up to the 1.3351/82 resistance. Below 1.2772 we would allow for losses to the 1.2669/62 15th January low and August low and possibly the 1.2609/78.6% retracement.”
According to the report from Federal Statistical Office (FSO), turnover in the retail sector fell by 0.5% in nominal terms in March 2019 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 0.1% compared with the previous month.
Real turnover in the retail sector also adjusted for sales days and holidays fell by 0.7% in March 2019 compared with the previous year. Economists had expected a 0.4% decrease. Compared with the previous month, real, seasonally adjusted retail trade turnover registered a decline of 0.2%.
Adjusted for sales days and holidays, the retail sector excluding service stations showed a 0.3% decrease in nominal turnover compared with March 2018 (in real terms –0.6%). Retail sales of food, drinks and tobacco registered an increase in nominal turnover of 0.5% (in real terms–0.4%), whereas the non-food sector registered a nominal negative of 0.5% (in real terms –0.4%).
Excluding service stations, the retail sector showed a seasonally adjusted stagnation in nominal turnover compared with the previous month (in real terms –0.2%). Retail sales of food, drinks and tobacco registered a plus of 0.3% (in real terms +0.3%). The non-food sector showed a minus of 0.3% (in real terms –0.5%).
According to provisional data from Destatis, turnover in retail trade in March 2019 was in real terms 2.1% and in nominal terms 1.7% smaller than in March 2018. Economists had expected a 2.9% increase in real terms. The number of days open for sale was 26 in March 2019 and in March 2018. The Easter holiday situation had a negative impact on March 2019 sales when compared to March 2018.
Compared with the previous year, turnover in retail trade was in the first three months of 2019 in real terms 1.7% and in nominal terms 2.3% higher than in the corresponding period of the previous year.
When adjusted for calendar and seasonal variations, the March turnover was in real terms 0.2% and in nominal terms 0.5% lower than in February 2019.
EUR/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.1271 (1670)
$1.1259 (956)
$1.1247 (206)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.1207
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.1189 (5052)
$1.1169 (1958)
$1.1146 (3273)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date May, 3 is 90907 contracts (according to data from May, 1) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (5811);
GBP/USD
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
$1.3162 (1577)
$1.3126 (1777)
$1.3090 (679)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.3050
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
$1.2989 (1873)
$1.2945 (1567)
$1.2898 (2126)
Comments:
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date May, 3 is 25269 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3500 (2424);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date May, 3 is 24120 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2750 (2380);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.95 versus 0.93 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 1
* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.
** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.
Pare | Closed | Change, % |
---|---|---|
AUDUSD | 0.7015 | -0.45 |
EURJPY | 124.786 | -0.18 |
EURUSD | 1.11984 | -0.13 |
GBPJPY | 145.392 | 0.06 |
GBPUSD | 1.30509 | 0.13 |
NZDUSD | 0.66206 | -0.77 |
USDCAD | 1.34352 | 0.33 |
USDCHF | 1.01766 | -0.11 |
USDJPY | 111.399 | -0.03 |
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