Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: currency news — 01-05-2019.

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01.05.2019
22:45
New Zealand: Building Permits, m/m, March -6.9% (forecast -1.6%)
22:30
Schedule for today, Thursday, May 2, 2019
Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
06:00 Germany Retail sales, real adjusted March 0.9% -0.4%
06:00 Germany Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y March 4.7% 2.9%
06:30 Switzerland Retail Sales (MoM) March 0.3%  
06:30 Switzerland Retail Sales Y/Y March -0.2% -0.4%
07:30 Switzerland Manufacturing PMI April 50.3 50.5
07:50 France Manufacturing PMI April 49.7 49.6
07:55 Germany Manufacturing PMI April 44.1 44.5
08:00 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI April 47.5 47.8
08:30 United Kingdom PMI Construction April 49.7 50.3
11:00 United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision 0.75% 0.75%
11:00 United Kingdom Asset Purchase Facility 435 435
11:00 United Kingdom Bank of England Minutes    
11:00 United Kingdom BOE Inflation Letter    
11:30 United Kingdom BOE Gov Mark Carney Speaks    
12:30 U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims 1655 1659
12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims 230 215
12:30 U.S. Nonfarm Productivity, q/q Quarter I 1.9% 2.2%
12:30 U.S. Unit Labor Costs, q/q Quarter I 2.2% 1.5%
14:00 U.S. Factory Orders March -0.5% 1.5%
17:30 Germany German Buba President Weidmann Speaks    
17:30 Eurozone ECB's Peter Praet Speaks    
22:30 Australia AIG Services Index April 44.8  
19:50
Schedule for tomorrow, Thursday, May 2, 2019
Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
06:00 Germany Retail sales, real adjusted March 0.9% -0.4%
06:00 Germany Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y March 4.7% 2.9%
06:30 Switzerland Retail Sales (MoM) March 0.3%  
06:30 Switzerland Retail Sales Y/Y March -0.2% -0.4%
07:30 Switzerland Manufacturing PMI April 50.3 50.5
07:50 France Manufacturing PMI April 49.7 49.6
07:55 Germany Manufacturing PMI April 44.1 44.5
08:00 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI April 47.5 47.8
08:30 United Kingdom PMI Construction April 49.7 50.3
11:00 United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision 0.75% 0.75%
11:00 United Kingdom Asset Purchase Facility 435 435
11:00 United Kingdom Bank of England Minutes    
11:00 United Kingdom BOE Inflation Letter    
11:30 United Kingdom BOE Gov Mark Carney Speaks    
12:30 U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims 1655 1659
12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims 230 215
12:30 U.S. Nonfarm Productivity, q/q Quarter I 1.9% 2.2%
12:30 U.S. Unit Labor Costs, q/q Quarter I 2.2% 1.5%
14:00 U.S. Factory Orders March -0.5% 1.5%
17:30 Germany German Buba President Weidmann Speaks    
17:30 Eurozone ECB's Peter Praet Speaks    
22:30 Australia AIG Services Index April 44.8  
18:00
U.S.: Fed Interest Rate Decision , 2.5% (forecast 2.5%)
14:57
UK PM May: Reluctant to set date for Brexit deadline

Government policy remains wanting Brexit with a deal

  • Some commonality on post-Brexit customs with opposition Labour Party
  • UK economy has remained "resilient" amid Brexit uncertainty


14:37
EIA’s report reveals much bigger-than-expected increase in U.S. crude oil inventories

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed that crude inventories surged by 9.934 million barrels in the week ended April 26. Economists had forecast an increase of 1.750 million barrels.

At the same time, gasoline stocks rose by 0.917 million barrels, while analysts had expected a drop of 0.950 million barrels. Distillate stocks declined by 1.307 million barrels, while analysts had forecast a decrease of 0.750 million barrels.

Meanwhile, oil production in the U.S. increased by 100,000 barrels a day to 12.300 million barrels a day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 7.4 million barrels per day last week, up by 265,000 barrels per day from the previous week.

14:30
U.S.: Crude Oil Inventories, April 9.934 (forecast 1.485)
14:22
U.S. construction spending unexpectedly drops in March

The Commerce Department said on Wednesday construction spending decreased 0.9 percent m-o-m in March after a downwardly revised 0.7 percent m-o-m gain in February (originally a 1.0 percent m-o-m advance).

Economists had forecast construction spending increasing 0.1 percent m-o-m in March.

On a y-o-y basis, construction spending declined 0.8 percent in March.

According to the report, investment in public construction dropped 1.3 percent m-o-m, while spending on private construction fell 0.7 percent m-o-m

14:10
U.S. manufacturing growth decelerates in April - ISM

A report from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed on Wednesday the U.S. manufacturing sector expanded in April at a slower pace than in March. 

The ISM's index of manufacturing activity came in at 52.8 percent last month, down 2.5 percentage points from the March reading of 55.3 percent, missing economists' forecast for a 55.0 percent reading.

The latest reading pointed to the weakest growth in manufacturing activity since October 2016.

A reading above 50 percent indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 percent indicates contraction. 

The monthly drop by the headline index was primarily attributable to slower increases in new orders (-5.7 percentage points m-o-m to 51.7 percent in April), production (-3.5 percentage points m-o-m to 52.3 percent) and employment (-5.1 percentage points m-o-m to 52.4 percent) indicators. Meanwhile, supplier deliveries index (+0.4 percentage point m-o-m to 54.6 percent) and the inventories index (-1.1 percentage points to 52.9 percent) recorded increases.

Timothy R. Fiore, Chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee said, “The past relationship between the PMI and the overall indicates that the PMI for April (52.8 percent) corresponds to a 2.9-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.”


14:00
U.S.: ISM Manufacturing, April 52.8 (forecast 55.0)
14:00
U.S.: Construction Spending, m/m, March -0.9% (forecast 0.1%)
13:56
Operating conditions in U.S. manufacturing sector improve moderately in April - IHS Markit

The latest report by IHS Markit revealed on Wednesday the seasonally adjusted IHS Markit final U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index(PMI) rose to 52.6 in April, up slightly from 52.4 in March and the “flash” figure of 52.4.

The reading signaled that the latest improvement in the health of the U.S. manufacturing sector was the second-slowest since June 2017.

Economists had forecast the index to stay unrevised at 52.4.

According to the report, expansions in output and new orders picked up from March's recent lows, with new business growth the fastest for three months. Despite a further rise in backlogs of work, the rate of job creation was the slowest since June 2017. On a price front, inflationary pressures continued to soften for a sixth month running.

13:45
U.S.: Manufacturing PMI, April 52.6 (forecast 52.4)
13:36
White House confirms USTR Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin have concluded trade talks with China
12:56
U.S. Treasury expects to hit debt ceiling sometime in the second half of 2019 unless Congress acts

  • Urges Congress to act promptly on this important matter
  • Expects the bill issuance  to gradually decline over the remainder of the second calendar quarter, largely reflecting debt limit constraints

12:36
UK Labour party's spokesman: Have seen clear evidence that the government is willing to explore shifts in its position on Brexit

  • There will be a full plenary session of Brexit talks early next week between Labour party and the government

12:33
UK PM May's spokesman: Want to see further progress in talks with Labour to help Britain leave EU with Deal

  • Continue to think we have negotiated on Brexit gives the benefits of customs union while having independent trade policy

12:23
U.S. private employers add 275,000 jobs in April - ADP

The employment report prepared by Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) and Moody's Analytics showed on Wednesday the U.S. private employers added 275,000 jobs in April. That was the largest monthly jobs gain since July 2018.

Economists had expected a gain of 180,000.

The increase for March was revised up to 151,000 from the originally reported 129,000.

“April posted an uptick in growth after the first quarter appeared to signal a moderation following a strong 2018,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “The bulk of the overall growth is with service providers, adding the strongest gain in more than two years.”

Meanwhile, Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, noted, “The job market is holding firm, as businesses work hard to fill open positions. The economic soft patch at the start of the year has not materially impacted hiring. April’s job gains overstate the economy’s strength, but they make the case that expansion continues on.”

12:15
U.S.: ADP Employment Report, April 275 (forecast 180)
12:05
Bank of Canada governor's testimony likely to echo Tuesday's message - TDS

"Bank of Canada Governor will continue his Parliamentary testimony with a 16:15 ET appearance before the Senate Banking Panel, which is likely to echo the message from Tuesday's session in the House of Commons. Manufacturing PMI for April is the lone data release," analysts at TD Securities suggest.

11:22
U.S. mortgage applications fall last week

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported on Wednesday the mortgage application volume in the U.S. fell 4.3 percent in the week ended April 26, following a 7.3 percent tumble in the previous week.

According to the report, the refinance applications dropped 5.0 percent and applications to purchase a home declined 3.7 percent.

Meanwhile, the average fixed 30-year mortgage rate decreased to 4.42 percent from 4.46 percent.

“Mortgage rates were lower last week, as concerns over global growth, particularly in Germany, outweighed more positive domestic news on first-quarter GDP growth and business investment,” noted Joel Kan, MBA’s associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting.

10:48
U.S. Commerce Secretary Ross: U.S. happy with how steel, aluminium tariffs work out
10:40
Focus on FOMC and U.S. ISM Manufacturing Survey – TDS

TD Securities' analysts expect Jerome Powell, chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, to maintain the central bank's patient stance, keeping all options open at Wednesday's post-FOMC meeting press conference.

Some downside risks have faded but the inflation outlook has softened, leaving Powell to stress the Fed remains ready to adjust policy as needed. We see risks skewed toward a more dovish tone, as Powell is likely to be asked repeatedly about the possibility of rate cuts this year.

We look for a minor drop in the ISM index as the regional Fed surveys suggest manufacturing activity is holding steady. Indeed, the average of the ISM-adjusted regional surveys remained unchanged at 54.2 in April, despite declines in three out of the four surveys published to date. Based on the regional data, we anticipate downward corrections in the employment and inventories components of the survey and a slight improvement in production. Additionally, new orders likely fell slightly. A recent pick-up in durable goods orders ex-transportation also puts a floor under downside risks for the April ISM print.

10:20
Outlook for UK's manufacturing sector looks challenging - ING

Analysts at ING note that the UK's firms continue to make preparations for a possible "no-deal" Brexit in October. This makes the outlook for manufacturing to look challenging, excluding the possibility of a Bank of England (BoE) rate hike this year.

  • Stockpiling had been the key theme in UK manufacturing over recent months, as concerns rose about the possibility of an imminent ‘no deal’ Brexit. Recent PMI surveys had suggested that firms were building inventory at an unprecedented rate – faster in fact than any G7 economy has experienced in the survey’s history.
  • But now that Article 50 has been extended and the immediate risk of ‘no deal’ postponed, this stockpiling activity has eased slightly according to the latest survey data. This helped take the manufacturing PMI from 55.1 in March to 53.1 in April. So what should we make of all of this?
  • Firstly, it’s worth remembering that, as with all PMI-style data, the survey only really tells us about the number of firms boosting inventory, but not necessarily by how much. With that in mind, we’d caution that the recent stock-building flurry may not have translated into a significant boost to activity when looking ahead to GDP data next week.
  • Anecdotal evidence indicates that warehousing availability is structurally low in the UK, which may have limited the ability of some firms to boost supplies significantly. The Bank of England’s credit conditions survey also tentatively suggests that the demand for inventory finance didn’t increase by an unprecedented amount either. That suggests that either firms financed the extra stock using cash reserves, or that they did less inventory building than the PMI surveys suggest. Where stock building did take place, by definition much of it is likely to have been imported, so the overall impact on first-quarter demand may have been relatively contained.
  • Going forward, the outlook for producers looks tricky. We continue to think the risk of a ‘no deal’ Brexit is relatively low, given that parliament would likely step in to stop it. However businesses have to plan for the worst, and that gives manufacturers a choice. Some may opt to retain their current elevated stock levels, although this doesn’t come without cost – be it through financing expenses, or simply the opportunity cost of putting the money at work somewhere else. Others may choose to unwind current stock levels and rebuild them closer to October – although in either case, there are reports that warehousing space is already in short-supply given seasonal demand ahead of Christmas.
  • One way or another, the outlook for the sector looks challenging and this is one reason why we expect overall economic growth to remain capped over coming months. We don’t currently expect the Bank of England to increase rates this year.
09:59
FOMC: Solid growth vs weak inflation calls for more patience - Standard Chartered

Sonia Meskin, US economist at Standard Chartered, suggests that the US economy has remained comparatively insulated from the recent global growth slowdown, but core inflation has declined which are potentially acting a dilemma for the FOMC.

“We believe that both the May FOMC statement and press conference will aim to address this dilemma in the near term, with an emphasis on the Fed’s current “patient” stance with respect to upcoming data. In fact, the May FOMC event may be a good example of both the advantages and drawbacks of having a press conference at every meeting. On the plus side, the Chair will have the opportunity to address recent money-market volatility. On the other hand, the Chair will likely be asked about the possibility of “pre-emptive” cuts to address weak inflation despite above-trend growth. We expect the Chair to demur on this front and to stress “patience” as the FOMC monitors domestic and global data.”

09:39
U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin says had 'productive meetings' with China's vice premier

China and the US held “productive” trade talks in Beijing on Wednesday and will continue discussions in Washington next week, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said.

Mnuchin, along with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, held a day of discussions, before Chinese Vice Premier Liu He goes to Washington next week for another round of talks in what could be the end game for negotiations.

“Ambassador Lighthizer and I just concluded productive meetings with China’s Vice Premier Liu He. We will continue our talks in Washington, D.C. next week,” Mnuchin wrote on his Twitter account.

09:20
British lenders approved the fewest mortgages in March since December 2017.

Bank of England data showed that lenders approved 62,341 mortgages, down from 65,340 in February and less than forecasts (64,850).

In cash terms, consumer credit increased by a net 549 million pounds in March, the smallest rise since November 2013 and following a 1.229 billion pound increase in February.

Annual growth in consumer credit slowed to 6.4 percent in March from 6.5 percent, marking the weakest growth since October 2014, the BoE said.

The BoE data showed net mortgage lending, which tends to lag behind approvals, rose to 4.120 billion pounds in March, up from 3.314 billion pounds in February.

09:00
ECB vice president Luis de Guindos: Low interest rate environment is with us for the foreseeable future

  • Low bank profitability remains a concern

  • Euro banking consolidation remains necessary

  • The structurally low profitability of the euro area banking sector remains a concern for financial stability and for monetary policy.

  • Sustained economic expansion over the past six years and greater banking sector resilience have supported financial stability within the euro area.

  • Recent softening of growth prospects heightens risks.

  • The financial stability environment has become more challenging than it was a year ago.

  • The risks that have been with us for some time now – a possible disorderly increase in risk premia, debt sustainability concerns, low bank profitability and imbalances in the non-bank financial sector – are still present, but they are no longer being mitigated by an improving macroeconomic outlook.

08:45
UK manufacturing upturn slows in April

According to the report from IHS Markit, April saw the recent growth fillip at UK manufacturers show signs of petering out, as rates of expansion in output and new orders slowed and new export business decreased at the second-fastest pace in four-and-a-half years. Brexit stock-building continued, albeit to a lesser extent than in the prior survey month.

The headline seasonally adjusted PMI fell to 53.1 in April, down from March's 13-month high of 55.1. Alongside weaker growth in production, new orders and stocks of purchases, the lower PMI level also reflected job losses in the sector.

The main theme in UK manufacturing in recent months has been accelerated stockpiling in preparation for Brexit, culminating with the survey-record increases in both inventories of inputs and finished products in March. This process largely continued into April, with further substantial expansions to holdings signalled. Output growth slowed from March's ten-month high in April. The upturn in new work received also weakened, as domestic market conditions remained subdued and new export business contracted. Manufacturing employment declined for the third time in the past four months during April. Business optimism improved to a seven-month high in April, with over 50% of companies forecasting that output would increase over the coming year.

08:31
United Kingdom: Net Lending to Individuals, bln, March 4.7 (forecast 4.5)
08:30
United Kingdom: Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing , April 53.1 (forecast 53.0)
08:30
United Kingdom: Consumer credit, mln, March 0.549 (forecast 1)
08:30
United Kingdom: Mortgage Approvals, March 62.341 (forecast 64.85)
08:14
What are expecting from today’s FOMC meeting? - Morgan Stanley

The Morgan Stanley analysts expect the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to make no changes to its interest rates, but expect another 5bps IOER cut.

“We expect the FOMC to leave its target range unchanged at 2.25%- 2.50%. With increased volatility in the effective federal funds rate and a press conference following this meeting, our rates strategists look for the Fed to deliver another 5bp IOER cut. The statement gets only small adjustments to the current conditions paragraph describing the rebound in consumer spending and lower core inflation. The press conference affords Chair Powell the opportunity to respond to concerns about softer readings on inflation and offer his take on the underlying strength of the economy, as well as the Fed's current view on financial stability. He could also provide further details on the Committee's discussion of the longer-run composition of its balance sheet.”

08:00
ECB still has ammunition left to fight recession - ECB Lane

The ECB’s policy arsenal has not been depleted and fiscal policy could help stimulate investment, said the ECB incoming Executive Board member Philip Lane.

Investors fear the ECB’s window to potentially raise interest rates has closed, meaning it has little in its toolkit to face the next recession.

But Lane, Ireland's central bank governor, said the bank still had options. "The idea that the ECB lacks potency is very far from where we are," he told.

Lane added that fiscal policy could also help reduce policy uncertainty, and encourage the private sector to resume investing.

07:40
USD/JPY: upside risks post-Golden week holidays on retail investors' position unwinds - NAB

NAB Research discusses USD/JPY tactical outlook and flags a scope for upside after the end of the Golden Week holidays in Japan.

"We noted that Japanese retail FX traders were running extended net long TRY/JPY (and ZAR/JPY) positions into the start of Golden Week - a 6-day holiday period during which the TFE, Gaitame.com and other margin trading exchanges will remain open. This is seen to entail some risk of a repeat of the January 3rd JPY-related ‘flash crashes’ in the event we see violent moves in TRY (or ZAR) this week. But maybe more pertinent is that retail investors are running record short USD/JPY positions on the TFE  - perhaps in part as a defensive strategy during Golden Week (or indeed to benefit from another flash crash event). As such, if we are spared a stronger JPY this week, there must be a risk that position unwinds by retail investors support a stronger USD/JPY next week and beyond, at a time when the stronger USD environment in any event suggests that the risks to the prevailing ¥110.50 to ¥112.85 range lies to the upside," NAB adds,

07:20
UK shop price inflation falls for first time since October - BRC

British shop price inflation cooled in early April for the first time in six months as retailers ramped up discounts at the start of the month, an industry survey showed.

The British Retail Consortium (BRC) and market research group Nielsen said shop prices were 0.4 percent higher than a year ago in April, compared with 0.9 percent in March.

"There were more than double the number of product lines on discount this month compared to the previous, as retailers hope to recover ground after March's disappointing sales figures," BRC chief executive Helen Dickinson said.

Clothing and footwear saw the most widespread discounts, followed by home improvement goods and fresh food.

07:01
China says to further open up banking and insurance sectors

China will further open up its banking and insurance sectors, the country's top banking and insurance regulator said in comments.

Guo Shuqing, chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, said it plans to soon issue 12 new measures. That includes cancelling a requirement for foreign banks to have $10 billion in assets before being allowed to set up a legal entity in China and removing approval procedures for foreign banks to conduct yuan business, Guo said.

China also plans to remove a requirement for foreign banks to have $20 billion in assets before being able to set up a branch, he added.

He said these changes would take place in the near term, but did not give an exact timeframe.

06:40
UK: Manufacturing PMI likely to decline to 53.5 in April - TDS

Analysts at TD Securities point out that for the UK economy, April's Manufacturing PMI is released, and they expect that some of the robust activity that led up to the original 29 March Brexit deadline will unwind.

“We look for a decline in the index to 53.5 (mkt: 53.1), leaving it still higher than its Jan/Feb levels. Uncertainty around where the index lands post-29 March remains heightened.”

06:38
FOMC amongst market movers today – Danske Bank

Danske Bank analysts suggest that today's main event is the FOMC meeting tonight; however, the Fed has stated that it is on hold, so they are expecting it to keep the target range unchanged at 2.25-2.50%.

“Moreover, we get the ISM manufacturing in the US and UK. We still expect US manufacturing to have peaked and to move slightly lower before stabilising (still above 50). Based on a weighted average of the regional PMIs, we expect numbers to come in at 55.0 (currently 55.3).”

06:20
UK house price growth remained subdued in April

According to the report from Nationwide Building Society, annual house price growth remained subdued at 0.9% in April. Economists had expected a 0.7% increase. The data also showed that prices rose 0.4% month-on-month, after taking account of seasonal factors. Economists had expected a 0.2% increase.

Commenting on the figures, Robert Gardner, Nationwide's Chief Economist, said: “UK house price growth remained subdued in April, with prices just 0.9% higher than the same month last year. Indicators of housing market activity, such as the number of property transactions and the number of mortgages approved for house purchase, have remained broadly stable in recent months, even though survey data suggests that sentiment has softened. Measures of consumer confidence weakened around the turn of the year and surveyors report that new buyer enquiries have remained subdued. While the number of properties coming onto the market has also slowed, this doesn’t appear to have been enough to prevent a modest shift in the balance of supply and demand in favour of buyers in recent months. April marks the fifth month in a row in which annual house price growth has been below 1%.

05:59
United Kingdom: Nationwide house price index , April 0.4% (forecast 0.2%)
05:59
United Kingdom: Nationwide house price index, y/y, April 0.9% (forecast 0.7%)
05:27
Options levels on wednesday, May 1, 2019 EURUSD GBPUSD

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1301 (1495)

$1.1281 (994)

$1.1270 (206)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1217

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1191 (5309)

$1.1169 (1855)

$1.1146 (3304)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date May, 3 is 89477 contracts (according to data from April, 30) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1500 (5811);


GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3163 (1579)

$1.3128 (1751)

$1.3085 (1072)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3040

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2984 (1871)

$1.2942 (1579)

$1.2896 (2068)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date May, 3 is 25589 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3500 (2424);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date May, 3 is 23718 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2750 (2380);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.93 versus 0.92 from the previous trading day according to data from April, 30

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

00:15
Currencies. Daily history for Tuesday, April 30, 2019
Pare Closed Change, %
AUDUSD 0.7047 -0.1
EURJPY 125.004 0.08
EURUSD 1.12134 0.28
GBPJPY 145.3 0.64
GBPUSD 1.30344 0.83
NZDUSD 0.66716 0.09
USDCAD 1.33913 -0.45
USDCHF 1.01874 -0.03
USDJPY 111.435 -0.18

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