CFD Trading Rate US Dollar vs Swiss Franc (USDCHF)

• USD/CHF extends losses due to growing expectations of multiple rate cuts by the Fed in 2024.
• Fed’s Neel Kashkari said that the US Fed should maintain policy rates at their current level for longer.
• Traders await Swiss Industrial Production (Q1) due on Friday, seeking fresh impetus on manufacturing conditions in the country.

USD/CHF continues its losing streak, hovering around 0.9000 during the European trading session on Thursday. The pair received pressure as the US Dollar (USD) struggled due to growing expectations of multiple rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2024.

This dovish sentiment surrounding the Fed was bolstered after the release of the lower-than-expected monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Retail Sales data from the United States (US). US CPI decelerated to 0.3% month-over-month in April and came in at a lower-than-expected 0.4% reading. While Retail Sales flattened, falling short of the expected increase of 0.4%.

However, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari remarked on Wednesday that the US Fed should maintain policy rates at their current level "for a while longer until they ascertain the direction of underlying inflation."

On the Swiss front, Producer and Import Prices (YoY) decreased by 1.8% in April, showing a slight improvement from the previous decline of 2.1%. This marked the twelfth consecutive period of decrease, albeit at the slowest rate since December 2023.

Furthermore, traders are anticipated to closely observe Industrial Production (YoY) for the first quarter, set to be released on Friday. This report will offer insights into the volume of production across various sectors, including factories and manufacturing, in Switzerland.

• USD/CHF edges lower due to a decline in the US Dollar and lower US yields.
• Fed Chair Jerome Powell has anticipated a sustained decrease in inflation, indicating diminished confidence in the disinflation outlook.
• Swiss Producer and Import Prices dropped 1.8% in April, marking the twelfth consecutive period of decrease.

USD/CHF edges lower for the second successive session, trading around 0.9060 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The decline of the USD/CHF pair could be attributed to the weaker US Dollar (USD) as investors shrugged off the higher-than-expected US Producer Price Index data for April. Investors will likely await the Consumer Price Index report scheduled for Wednesday.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.5% MoM in April, surpassing the market expectations of a 0.3% increase. The producer prices have rebounded from March's contraction of 0.1%. Additionally, the Core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also surged 0.5% month-over-month, exceeding projections of 0.2%.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell shared his views after the release of US PPI. According to a Reuters report, Powell has anticipated a continued decline in inflation and expressed less confidence in the disinflation outlook compared to previous assessments. He also highlighted that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is expected to reach 2% or higher, attributing this positive forecast to the strength of the labor market.

In Switzerland, Producer and Import Prices (YoY) dropped 1.8% in April, marking a slight improvement from the preceding decline of 2.1%. This marks the twelfth consecutive period of decrease, albeit at the slowest rate since December 2023. On a monthly basis, the measure of consumer price inflation increased by 0.6%, following a 0.1% rise in the previous month.

Furthermore, traders are expected to closely monitor Industrial Production (YoY) for the first quarter, scheduled for release on Friday. This report will provide insights into the volume of production across industries such as factories and manufacturing in Switzerland.

• USD/CHF appreciates as the Fed is expected to maintain higher interest rates for longer.
• Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson has advocated for keeping rates higher until signs of inflation easing become clear.
• The Swiss Franc may encounter selling pressure as the SNB intensifies its focus on combating inflation.

USD/CHF continues to gain ground for the third successive session, trading around 0.9090 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The US Dollar edges higher against the Swiss Franc (CHF) due to cautious statements from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, emphasizing the importance of maintaining higher rates for longer given the elevated inflation. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson reiterated this stance on Monday, advocating for keeping current interest rates until signs of inflation easing emerge.

On Tuesday, traders will likely watch the US Producer Price Index (PPI), a pivotal economic indicator. The PPI report could significantly impact the US market. Traders may use the PPI data to assess the potential outcome of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). If the PPI data exceeds expectations, it could further strengthen the US Dollar.

On the Swiss front, SECO Consumer Climate (YoY) experienced a slight decline in April, with a reading of -38.1. However, it still significantly trailed the long-term average. On Tuesday, Producer and Import Prices data for April is due, an indicator of consumer price inflation provided by the Federal Statistical Office of Switzerland.

The Swiss Franc may struggle as the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has redirected its attention from deliberately strengthening the Swiss Franc (CHF), as the central bank intensifies its focus on combating inflation. Last week, the SNB saw its foreign exchange reserves climb to CHF 720 billion in April, marking the fifth consecutive increase.

• USD/CHF inches higher due to a firmer US Dollar driven by cautious remarks from Fed officials.
• The decline in the US Treasury yields limits the advance of the Greenback.
• Swiss Consumer Climate (YoY) came in at the reading of -38.1 for April, compared to -38.0 prior.

USD/CHF gains ground for the second successive session, trading around 0.9070 during the European trading hours on Monday. The US Dollar remains firmer due to the hawkish sentiment surrounding the Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain higher interest rates for an extended period, underpinning the USD/CHF pair. This sentiment is bolstered by the cautious comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials regarding interest rate cuts.

However, Friday's release of the US Consumer Sentiment Index added to evidence suggesting a slowdown in the economy. The index declined to 67.4 in May from April's 77.2, hitting a six-month low and falling short of market expectations. This has put pressure on the US Treasury yields, limiting the advance of the Greenback.

As per Reuters, Neel Kashkari, President of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve (Fed), exercised caution regarding the extent of tightness in monetary policy. In an interview with CNBC on Friday, Kashkari remarked that although the bar for another rate hike is high, it should not be completely dismissed. Furthermore, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly stressed the importance of sustaining a prolonged tight policy stance to achieve the Federal Reserve's inflation goals.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, trades around 105.30 with 2-year and 10-year yields on US Treasury bonds standing at 4.85% and 4.48%, respectively, by the press time.

In Switzerland, SECO Consumer Climate (YoY) experienced a slight decline in April, with a reading of -38.1, compared to the previous -38.0 and an expected -40.0. However, it still significantly trailed the long-term average.

Over the past week, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) saw its foreign exchange reserves climb to CHF 720 billion in April, marking the fifth consecutive increase. The SNB has redirected its attention from deliberately strengthening the Swiss Franc (CHF), as the central bank intensifies its focus on combating inflation.

• USD/CHF could depreciate as weaker US labor data initiated the discussion over the Fed adopting a less hawkish stance.
• US Initial Jobless Claims rose to an eight-month high of 231K, surpassing estimates of 210K.
• The yield on a 10-year Swiss bond dropped to a new monthly low, making Swiss assets less attractive.

USD/CHF hovers around 0.9060 with negative sentiment during the European session on Friday following the weak US labor data released on Thursday. This has initiated a discussion of the Federal Reserve (Fed) switching toward a less hawkish stance regarding the monetary policy, undermining the US Treasury yields and weakening the US Dollar (USD).

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released data indicating that the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits exceeded expectations. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending May 3 rose to 231,000, surpassing estimates of 210,000 and showing an increase from the previous week's reading of 209,000.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, hovers around 105.20 with 2-year and 10-year US Treasury yields standing at 4.81% and 4.44%, respectively, by the press time.

On the Swiss front, the banks are closed on Friday due to the Ascension Day holiday. The yield on the 10-year Swiss government bond dropped below the 0.7% threshold, nearing a new monthly low, in line with a global decline in bond yields. The lower yields make Swiss assets less attractive to foreign investors, leading to a decrease in demand for the Swiss Franc.

Earlier this week, the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) foreign exchange reserves increased to CHF 720 billion in April from CHF 716 billion in the previous month. This marked the fifth consecutive rise since reaching a near seven-year low of CHF 642 billion in November. The SNB has shifted its focus away from intentionally bolstering the Swiss Franc (CHF), as the central bank has advanced its efforts against inflation.

According to the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs on Tuesday, the seasonally adjusted Swiss Unemployment Rate declined to 2.3% month-on-month in April from 2.4% in March. This marks the lowest level in four months.

• USD/CHF falls 0.16%, trading below 0.9100 due to broader US dollar weakness.
• Technicals show neutral to upward bias; recent bearish RSI indicates loss of upward momentum.
• Key support at 0.9006 (50-day MA and support trendline); resistance at 0.9100 and 0.9174.

The USD/CHF extended its losses for two straight days and is down some 0.16%, courtesy of broad US Dollar weakness, undermined by lower US Treasury yields. The major trades at 0.9064 after hitting a high shy of 0.9100.

USD/CHF Price Analysis: Technical outlook

The daily chart depicts the USD/CHF as neutral to upward biased, despite buyers losing momentum, as shown by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shifting bearish. Although the pair has lost some 1.80% after hitting a year-to-date (YTD) high of 0.9224, solid support seen at the confluence of the 50-day moving average and a support trendline at around 0.9006/30 might cap the pair’s drop.

Looking at the potential for a bullish continuation, the USD/CHF could see a positive turn if it manages to climb above 0.9100. Once this level is breached, the next immediate resistance level to watch out for would be May 2 high at 0.9174, with a further test at 0.9200.

On the other hand, if bears push prices below 0.9000, that will confirm the ‘evening star’ chart pattern and exacerbate a drop toward the 200-DMA at 0.8887, ahead of the 100-DMA at 0.8829.

USD/CHF Price Action – Daily Chart

• USD/CHF drifts higher to 0.9085 in Thursday’s European session. 
• The hawkish comments from many Fed policymakers support the US Dollar (USD). 
• The Swiss Unemployment Rate fell to 2.3% MoM in April from 2.4% in March, the lowest level in four months. 

The USD/CHF pair trades on a stronger note around 0.9085 during the early European session on Thursday. The modest rebound of the Greenback, supported by the hawkish comments from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials provides some support to the pair. Investors will monitor the Fed’s Daly’s speech later on Thursday amid the lack of top-tier economic data release from the US and Switzerland. 

Several Fed policymakers delivered hawkish messages this week, bolstering the US Dollar (USD). Boston Fed President Susan Collins said on Wednesday that it will take longer than previously thought to bring inflation down to the Fed 2% target, adding that the rate will likely stay higher for longer. Meanwhile, both New York Fed President John Williams and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari noted that they prefer to hold the rate at the current levels for longer. 

The Fed's Williams stated on Monday that monetary policy is in a good place, but they have the time to collect more data. The Fed's Kashkari said on Tuesday that he believes rates will likely need to be held at current levels for an "extended period." He also didn't rule out a hike if inflation stalls near 3%. This, in turn, lifts the Greenback broadly and creates a tailwind for the USD/CHF pair. 

On the Swiss front, the nation’s Unemployment Rate fell to 2.3% MoM in April from 2.4% in March, the lowest level in four months, according to the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs on Tuesday.

Apart from this, market players will focus on the developments surrounding the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The US expects that discussions on a Gaza ceasefire will be able to close the gap between Israel and Hamas. The US Central Intelligence Agency Director William Burns visited Israel on Wednesday and spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, per Reuters. If the uncertainties and geopolitical risks remain, this could lift the Swiss Franc (CHF), a traditional safe-haven currency. 

• USD/CHF trades with a mild positive bias around 0.9085 on Wednesday. 
• The Fed's Kashkari comments have dampened hopes for potential interest rate cuts this year, lifting the Greenback. 
• The uncertainties surrounding ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas might boost the CHF and cap the pair’s upside. 

The USD/CHF pair posts modest gains near 0.9085 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. The recovery of the US Dollar (USD) is bolstered by hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, which dampen hopes for potential interest rate cuts in 2024. Market participants will keep an eye on the speeches from the Fed’s Philip Jefferson, Susan Collins, and Lisa Cook later on Wednesday. 

Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari delivered some hawkish comments on Tuesday, which lifted the Greenback broadly. Kashkari noted that it is too early to declare that inflation has stalled out, and the Fed might cut interest rates this year if price pressures continue to ease. 

Traders lower their bets on Fed rate cuts this year, with a 65.7% chance of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points (bps) in September, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Investors will take more cues from the first reading of the US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index on Friday, which is projected to ease to 76.0 in May from the previous reading of 77.2.

On the Swiss front, ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas remain uncertain. Israel's war cabinet agreed to continue the military attack against Hamas, with Israeli forces striking Gaza's southernmost city. Even though Hamas agreed to a cease-fire plan on Monday, Israel said the agreement did not meet its conditions, according to the New York Times. The rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East might boost safe-haven flows and benefit the Swiss Franc (CHF) against the USD. 

• USD/CHF maintains its position amid an upward correction in the US Dollar.
• The recent lower US labor data has revived hopes for rate cuts by the Fed in 2024.
• The Swiss Unemployment Rate (MoM) was recorded at a non-seasonally adjusted 2.3% in April, from 2.4% prior.

USD/CHF treads water to hold position, hovering around 0.9060 during the early European hours. The upward correction in the US Dollar (USD) provides support for the USD/CHF pair. However, The Greenback could face resistance due to investors’ optimism following the softer US labor data on Friday. This development has reignited hopes for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2024.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, trades higher around 105.20. The weaker US Treasury yields contribute to limiting the advance of the US Dollar. 2-year and 10-year yields on US Treasury bonds stand at 4.80% and 4.45%, respectively, by the press time.

On the Swiss side, the Unemployment Rate (MoM) stood at a non-seasonally adjusted 2.3% in April, slightly decreasing from 2.4% prior. The number of unemployed individuals decreased by 1,636 compared to the previous month, totaling 106,957. When adjusted for seasonal factors, the jobless rate remained steady at 2.3% in April.

According to Reuters, Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Thomas Jordan discussed exploring the optimal method for digitally tokenizing financial assets to enhance the security and efficiency of payments during an event in Basel on Monday. Jordan refrained from providing indications regarding economic and monetary policy during his speech.

• USD/CHF encounters challenges amid renewed expectations for rate cuts by the Fed in 2024.
• Fed is anticipated to execute its initial rate cut in September, against the earlier forecasts in November.
• SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan may offer fresh cues on policy stance during the BIS Innovation Summit 2024.

USD/CHF continues its losing streak for the fourth successive day on Monday, trading around 0.9050 during the European hours. The weaker US Dollar (USD) puts pressure on the USD/CHF pair, which could be attributed to the revived expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) later this year. This sentiment is derived from the softer-than-expected US jobs data released on Friday.

On Friday, US Nonfarm Payrolls data showed that the United States (US) economy added 175,000 new jobs in April, falling short of the estimated 243,000 and indicating a notable deceleration from March's addition of 315,000 jobs. Additionally, Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) rose by 3.9% in April, slightly below the anticipated 4.0% and the 4.1% prior. Meanwhile, monthly growth stood at 0.2%, compared to the expected 0.3%.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to implement its first rate cut in September, diverging from previous forecasts indicating November. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis points (bps) rate reduction by the Fed during September's meeting has increased to 48.8%, up from 43.8% just a week ago.

On the Swiss side, data released on Thursday showed that annual inflation in Switzerland accelerated more rapidly than expected in April. The Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rose to 1.4% year-on-year in April from a previous increase of 1.0% in March, surpassing the market consensus of 1.1%. This unexpected acceleration has lent support to the Swiss Franc (CHF).

Looking ahead to Monday, traders are anticipated to closely monitor a speech by Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Thomas Jordan at the SNB's Project Helvetia III during the BIS Innovation Summit 2024 in Basel. Jordan's remarks may offer fresh insights into the economy and policy direction.

• USD/CHF extends its downside near 0.9095 amid softer USD on Friday. 
• The Fed kept its benchmark rate on Wednesday as inflation remains high. 
• Swiss CPI inflation was hotter than expected in April, climbing to 1.4% YoY from a rise of 1.0% in March.

The USD/CHF pair trades in negative territory for the third consecutive day on Friday during the early European session. The pair edges lower to 0.9095 after retreating from a seven-month high of nearly 0.9224 due to the softer US Dollar (USD) broadly. Investors await the highly-anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) for April on Friday, which is forecast to show 243K job additions in the US economy. 

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) decided to keep monetary policy on hold on Wednesday. During the press conference, Fed Chair Powell noted that progress on inflation has stalled recently and that it would take longer to gain confidence that inflation is moving towards the 2% target. The higher-for-longer US rate narrative is likely to lift the Greenback and cap the pair’s downside in the near term. Apart from this, the US central bank announced a slowing in its balance sheet runoff (QT). 

The annual inflation in Switzerland accelerated faster than expected in April, the Federal Statistics Office reported on Thursday. The Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation climbed to 1.4% YoY in April from a rise of 1.0% in March, above the market consensus of 1.1%. The Swiss Franc (CHF) gained traction after the data was released and created a headwind for the USD/CHF pair.  Last week, Swiss National Bank (SNB) chairman Thomas Jordan said the central bank had brought inflation under control, with the bank estimating price rises to be within its target band for the next few years.

• USD/CHF weakens to 0.9110 following Swiss inflation data on Thursday. 
• The Swiss CPI inflation climbed to 1.4% YoY in April from a rise of 1.0% in March.
• The Fed has kept its benchmark lending rate steady at a 23-year high since July 2023. 
• The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) for April will be in the spotlight on Friday. 

The USD/CHF pair faces some selling pressure on Thursday, supported by the hotter-than-expected Swiss inflation data. The pair currently trades around 0.9110, down 0.48% on the day. Furthermore, the softer US Dollar (USD) came after the US Federal Reserve (Fed) held interest rates at their current levels, adding further downside to the pair. 

The inflation in Switzerland came in hotter than expected in April, according to the Federal Statistical Office of Switzerland on Thursday. The Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rose to 1.4% YoY in April from a rise of 1.0% in March. On a monthly basis, the Swiss CPI figure increased by 0.3% MoM in April, above the market consensus of 0.1%. In response to the data, the Swiss Franc (CHF) attracts some buyers and drags the USD/CHF pair to the 0.9100 support level. 

The US Fed on Wednesday decided to leave its interest rate unchanged as inflation has remained stubbornly high in recent months. The Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that he doesn’t have a plan to cut interest rates until the Fed has “greater confidence” that price increases are slowing sustainably to its 2% target. During the press conference, Fed’s Powell said that “there has been a lack of further progress.”, adding that interest rates are “restrictive” enough and that it was “unlikely” that the Fed would raise rates again in this cycle. This, in turn, weighs on the Greenback and creates a headwind for the USD/CHF pair. 

Investors will closely monitor the US employment data on Friday. The Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) for April is expected to show 243K job additions in the US economy, while the Unemployment Rate is projected to remain steady at 3.8% in the same period. 

• USD/CHF trades on a stronger note around 0.9210 ahead of the Fed rate decision on Wednesday.
• The pair keeps the bullish vibe with the overbought RSI condition.
• The first upside barrier is seen at 0.9245; the initial support level is located at 0.9155.

The USD/CHF pair extends its upside to 0.9210 on Wednesday during the early European session. A renewed US Dollar (USD) demand creates a tailwind to a major pair. Furthermore, the Fed is widely expected to keep the policy rate in its current 5.25%–5.50% range on Wednesday and continue to maintain the hawkish stance, which provides some support to the Greenback. 

Technically, USD/CHF maintains the bullish outlook unchanged on the four-hour chart as the cross is above the key 50- and 100-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds in bullish territory above the midline. However, the overbought RSI condition indicates that further consolidation cannot be ruled out before positioning for any near-term USD/CHF appreciation. 

A decisive break above the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band at 0.9210 will see a rally to a high of October 3, 2023, at 0.9245. Any follow-through buying above this level will expose the 0.9300 psychological round mark. The next upside target is seen at a high of March 16, 2023, at 0.9340. 

On the flip side, the initial support level for the cross will emerge near a high of April 29 at 0.9155. The additional downside filter to watch is the 50-period EMA at 0.9134. The key contention level is located at the 0.9100–0.9110 zone, representing the psychological figure and the 100-period EMA. A breach of the mentioned level will see a drop to the lower limit of the Bollinger Band at 0.9075. 

USD/CHF four-hour chart

• USD/CHF rebounds possibly due to the hawkish remarks from Fed officials.
• Fed Chair Powell said that it may take "longer than expected" to gain confidence if inflation is weakening.
• The Swiss KOF Leading Indicator indicated robust development in the domestic economy.

USD/CHF retraces its recent losses registered on Monday, trading around 0.9130 during the European session on Tuesday. The US Dollar (USD) appreciates, possibly due to hawkish remarks from US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, indicating no immediate need for rate cuts. This has underpinned the USD/CHF pair.

According to a report by The Economic Times on Monday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that it may take "longer than expected" to gain confidence that inflation is progressing toward the central bank's 2% target. Powell also emphasized that the central bank can maintain high rates "as long as needed." Additionally, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman expressed concerns about "upside risks" to inflation. Meanwhile, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari floated the possibility of no rate cuts occurring this year.

On the Swiss side, the KOF Leading Indicator, which reflects GDP growth and economic trends in Switzerland, increased to 101.8 in April from a downwardly revised 100.4 in March, slightly below forecasts of 102.1. Although the figure suggests stabilization above the long-term average, indicating robust development in the Swiss economy, there is no strong upward momentum anticipated soon.

According to a report from Bloomberg, Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Thomas J. Jordan said last Friday that the central bank is dedicated to closely monitoring inflation. Jordan emphasized that the SNB is prepared to lower interest rates further if needed. While highlighting the SNB's achievements in addressing inflation, he also warned of ongoing high uncertainty and the potential for unexpected shocks.

• USD/CHF loses ground due to the improved risk appetite on Monday.
• Fed is expected to maintain its current interest rate range of 5.25%–5.5% in June.
• SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan stated that the central bank is prepared to lower interest rates again if deemed necessary.

USD/CHF retraces its recent gains that registered on Friday, trading around 0.9120 during the European session on Monday. The US Dollar (USD) depreciates, possibly reflecting a shift toward a risk-on sentiment, which undermines the USD/CHF pair.

However, market analysts expect the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain the current interest rate range of 5.25%–5.5% in its upcoming policy meeting on Wednesday, likely due to concerns about stronger inflation. Additionally, the annual US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data for March showed a rise on last Friday, suggesting that the Fed may delay any potential rate cuts until September. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in the June meeting has increased to 87.7%, up from last week's 81.7%.

On the Swiss side, during the SNB's General Meeting of Shareholders on Friday, Chairman Thomas J. Jordan emphasized the bank's commitment to monitoring inflation closely. He stated that the SNB stands ready to reduce interest rates again when necessary. In March, the SNB surprised markets by lowering its main policy rate by 0.25 percentage points to 1.5%.

Chairman Jordan highlighted the SNB's success in combating inflation but cautioned that uncertainty remains high and shocks can arise unexpectedly. He emphasized the importance of maintaining focus on price stability and warned against calls from critics to broaden the SNB's mandate, labeling such demands as dangerous.

Investors are expected to closely watch the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data scheduled to be released by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office on Thursday. The CPI serves as the primary indicator for measuring inflation and changes in purchasing trends in Switzerland.

• USD/CHF trades in positive territory near 0.9130 on Friday. 
• The US economy expanded at the slowest pace in two years, below the consensus. 
• The escalating Middle East tensions might boost the safe-haven CHF. 

The USD/CHF pair trades on a stronger note around 0.9130 during the early European session on Friday. The modest rebound of the US Dollar (USD) provides some support to the pair. Traders prefer to wait on the sideline ahead of the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) Chairman Jordan speech, followed by the final reading of the US March Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) on Friday. 

The US advance estimate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) number grew far less than estimated in the first quarter of 2024, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis on Thursday. The US economy grew at an annualized pace of 1.6% during the period, missing the expectation of 2.5% growth and coming in lower than fourth quarter GDP, which was revised up to 3.4%. The Greenback attracted some sellers after the data was released. 

Nonetheless, a surprising upside in the quarterly Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation measure suggested that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) would not cut interest rates before September. The PCE figure rose at an annualized rate of 3.4% in Q1, compared to the 1.8% pace recorded in Q4 2023. The recent inflation data dampened the hope for June rate cuts, and investors forecast one cut this year, down from three cuts just a few weeks ago. This, in turn, might cap the downside for the Greenback in the near term. 

On the Swiss front, Switzerland’s ZEW Survey Expectations rose to 17.6 in April from the previous reading of 11.5, the Centre for European Economic Research revealed on Wednesday. Furthermore, the rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly in Israel and Iran, might boost safe-haven asset flows, benefiting the Swiss Franc (CHF). 

• USD/CHF drifts lower to 0.9145 on the softer US Dollar on Thursday. 
• The hawkish tone of the US Fed has lifted the USD, creating a tailwind for the pair. 
• Switzerland’s ZEW Survey Expectations rose to 17.6 in April, compared to 11.5 prior.

The USD/CHF pair trades on a weaker note near 0.9145 during the early European session on Thursday. Traders seem to prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the release of the US preliminary Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized for the first quarter (Q1) later in the day. In the meantime, any development surrounding escalating tensions in the Middle East might boost safe-haven assets like the Swiss Franc (CHF). 

The US Federal Reserve's (Fed) policymakers agreed with the central bank’s position to remain on hold. The hawkish tone of the Fed has provided some support to the Greenback in recent weeks. However, investors have doubts about exactly when monetary policy easing will come. The US GDP growth number might offer some hints about how the US economy performs in Q1 of 2024. 

The first estimated US GDP growth number is estimated to grow at a 2.5% annualized pace during the first quarter, compared to the previous reading of 3.4%. In case the report shows stronger-than-expected data, this might trigger speculation that the US Fed will delay the rate cut cycle, which might lift the US Dollar (USD). 

On Wednesday, data released from the Centre for European Economic Research showed that Switzerland’s ZEW Survey Expectations improved to 17.6 in April compared to 11.5 in the previous reading. Apart from this, the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East might lift the CHF, a traditional safe-haven currency, and drag the USD/CHF lower. 

• USD/CHF oscillates near a six-month high around 0.9150, exhibiting strength ahead of crucial US data.
• The SNB is expected to extend the rate-cut cycle in June.
• The Fed sees the current interest rate policy framework as appropriate.

The USD/CHF pair hovers around the six-month high of 0.9150 in Wednesday’s early American session. The near-term outlook of the Swiss Franc asset remains bullish, with expectations of further escalation in policy divergence between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB).

The Fed is expected to keep interest rates at their current levels for a longer period, given the strength in the United States labor market and stubbornly higher inflation due to strong consumer spending.

The SNB will reduce interest rates again in the June policy meeting. The SNB kicked off the global rate-cut cycle after lowering borrowing rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 1.5% in the March meeting. The inflation in the Swiss economy has softened below the 2% target from a longer period, allowing the SNB to slice key interest rates further.

Meanwhile, investors await the crucial US Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for March, which will be published on Thursday and Friday. The economic data will impact market expectations for Fed rate cuts, which are currently expected in the September meeting.

USD/CHF trades back-and-forth in a tight range near the crucial resistance of 0.9110, which is plotted from 1 November 2023 high plotted on a daily timeframe. The asset is expected to extend its upside as the upward-sloping 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 0.9075 suggests an upbeat near-term outlook.

The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the bullish range of 60.00-80.00, indicating that a bullish momentum is still active.

Going forward, an upside move above intraday high of 0.9153 will drive the asset towards the round-level support of 0.9200. A breach of the latter will push the asset further to 4 October 2023 high at 0.9232.

In an alternate scenario, fresh downside would appear if the asset breaks below the psychological support of 0.9000, which will expose it to March 22 low at 0.8966, followed by March 1 high at 0.8893.

USD/CHF daily chart

• USD/CHF remains bullish due to disparities in expected policy trajectories between the Fed and SNB.
• The Swiss Franc is under downward pressure as the SNB is anticipated to implement another rate cut in June.
• The US Dollar has rebounded, potentially driven by the higher 10-year yield on US Treasury bond.

USD/CHF hovers near 0.9140 during early European trading hours on Wednesday, maintaining its position close to the six-month high of 0.9152 reached on April 15. The Swiss Franc (CHF) faces challenges due to the notable disparities in expected monetary policy trajectories between the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB).

Swiss annual inflation dropped to a more than two-year low of 1% in March, emphasizing the SNB's assertion that underlying inflation has moderated. This, coupled with pessimistic Business Confidence indicators and a decline in Retail Sales, has strengthened market expectations that the SNB may implement another rate cut in June.

The CHF had already experienced significant depreciation after the Swiss National Bank unexpectedly reduced its main interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.50% in March, becoming the first major central bank to reverse course on tighter monetary policy.

In the United States (US), the probability of the Federal Reserve's maintaining interest rates unchanged in the June meeting has risen to 84.6%, up from the previous week's 82.7%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, has rebounded due to a higher 10-year yield on US Treasury bonds, standing at 4.62%, up by 0.54% at the time of writing. However, disappointing US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data is weighing on the Greenback, thereby limiting the advance of the USD/CHF pair.

In April, the preliminary S&P Global Composite PMI for the US declined to 50.9 from the previous reading of 52.1. Additionally, the Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.9 from 51.9 in the previous reading, below the estimated 52.0. Similarly, the Services PMI decreased to 50.9, compared to the prior 51.7, falling short of the expected 52.0.