CFD Trading Rate Euro vs Japanese Yen (EURJPY)

• The daily chart analysis of EUR/JPY reveals a strong buying momentum, as indicated by RSI and MACD in the positive territory.
• The MACD on the daily and hourly charts shows growing buying traction, reinforcing the bullish trend.
• The pair stance above the crucial Simple Moving Averages indicates a prolonged bullish phase.

The EUR/JPY currency pair currently trades at 164.78, demonstrating a daily gain of 0.28%. It suggests a likely continued bullish phase, well positioned above essential Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). The market's current stance signifies the dominance of buyers, with long positions appearing favorable.

On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) resides in the positive territory, hovering at around 62,  near to the overbought region, which suggests a rather potent buying pressure. Concurrently, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) displays ascending green bars, signifying positive momentum.

EUR/JPY daily chart

Turning to the hourly chart, the RSI portrays a similar bullish sentiment, as its latest reading registers at 67. The MACD remains consistent with the daily chart, as it exhibits an emerging green bar, indicating enhanced positive momentum. This corroborates the dominance of buyers in this time frame as well.

EUR/JPY hourly chart

Considering the broader outlook, the EUR/JPY appears to be in a solid position, standing above the 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). SMAs are crucial as positions above these levels suggest a prevailing bullish trend. The higher above the SMA, the stronger the bullish sentiment.

• The daily chart reveals an encouraging picture for the bulls, with the RSI close to 60.
• On the hourly chart, the indicators are weakening, but remain in a positive area.
• The cross operating above main SMAs, suggests a maintained bullish bias in both short-term and long-term contexts.

The EUR/JPY pair is currently exchanging hands at 164.24, registering a minor gain of 0.16%. Trading dynamics are steadily bullish, with buyers having a dominant influence over market actions. However, indicators are losing steam in the hourly chart.

The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading, residing near 60, places the market in a positive territory and its consistent positive trend in the RSI, indicates that buyers maintain control over the market. Consistently, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) presents an encouraging picture with decreasing red bars suggesting weak negative momentum.

EUR/JPY daily chart

Taking a look at the hourly chart, a similar tone of bullish dominance resounds but with indicators losing traction. The RSI values show a positive terrain, position between 40 and 60 during the most recent hours but point south. The MACD on the other hand, prints flat green bars, indicating a steady buying momentum.

EUR/JPY hourly chart

In the broader perspective, EUR/JPY maintains a significant bullish stance. Notably, the EUR/JPY stands above both the 20,100 and 200-day SMA, reaffirming a solid long-term bullish position and confirming the dominant upward movement shown by the RSI.

In conclusion, the comprehensive examination of EUR/JPY, considering both the daily and hourly charts, delivers a dual message. Buyers generally command the market, as illustrated by the upward RSI trend and the presence of green MACD bars. However, minor dips and slowdowns on the hourly chart imply occasional shifts in market dynamics toward sellers.

• EUR/JPY moves in the positive direction after recovering losses on Friday.
• Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) contracted by 0.7% in February, a lower-than-expected decline of 1.3%.
• The Japanese Yen enjoyed a safe-haven status amid escalated tensions in the Middle East.

EUR/JPY has recovered its intraday losses to move into positive territory, inching higher to near 164.10 during the European trading hours on Friday. However, the EUR/JPY cross faced challenges as the safe-haven Japanese Yen (JPY) gained attraction amid escalated geopolitical tension after Iran vowed to retaliate against Israel's attack on Iran's embassy in Syria, which resulted in the loss of Iranian military personnel.

The downbeat economic data from Germany might have pressured the Euro, limiting the advance of the EUR/JPY cross. The seasonally adjusted Factory Orders from the Federal Statistics Office of Germany, revealed a contraction of 0.2% month-over-month in February, falling short of the expected increase of 0.8% but swinging from the previous decline of 11.4%. The index YoY fell by 10.6%, exceeding the previous decline of 6.2%.

Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) contracted by 0.7% in February, a lower-than-expected decline of 1.3% and 0.9% prior. The monthly index declined by 0.5%, exceeding the market expectations of a 0.4% decline.

Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated on Friday that the central bank might adjust monetary policy if foreign exchange fluctuations significantly impact the wage-inflation cycle in a manner that cannot be ignored.

Japan's Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki echoed this sentiment, emphasizing his close monitoring of currency movements with a strong sense of urgency. He expressed readiness to explore all available options to address excessive volatility in the foreign exchange market.

Furthermore, Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida stated that appropriate action would be taken if there were excessive FX movements. He emphasized the utilization of all means to respond to such fluctuations. Prime Minister Kishida also highlighted the importance of stable forex movements reflecting fundamentals, stating that volatile movements are unfavorable.

• Indicators from the hourly chart show that buyers are taking profits.
• As long as the cross holds above its main SMAs, the outlook will be positive.

The EUR/JPY is changing hands at 164.74, up by 0.28%. The buyers demonstrate a stronghold in the market, which has led to ascending buying momentum. On the hourly chart, indicators are correcting oversold conditions so the upside might be limited for the immediate short term.

On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently situated in the positive territory, suggests a strong prevalence of buyers in the market. Additionally, decreasing red bars on the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram indicates a weak bearish momentum.

EUR/JPY daily chart

Looking at the hourly chart, the RSI, all values well above the mid-line but pointing south which suggests that the buyers are losing steam. Furthermore, rising red bars on the MACD histogram add more arguments for the bears stepping in.

EUR/JPY hourly chart

The broader market outlook harbors mixed signals as the EUR/JPY hovers above the 20, 100, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) which implies that the overall trends continue to be bullish. In summary, although indicators advocate for a bullish bias, a close observation of short-term bearish signals emitted by the declining RSI on the hourly chart is crucial.

• EUR/JPY extends its recovery to 164.50 in Thursday’s early European session. 
• The cross resumes its bullish outlook with the overbought RSI condition.
• The first upside barrier will emerge at 164.70; initial support level is located at the 164.00 round mark.

The EUR/JPY cross trades on a stronger note for the third consecutive day around 164.50 during the early European session on Thursday. The absence of clarity from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) on future policy steps puts some selling pressure on the Japanese Yen (JPY). However, the possible intervention from the Japanese authorities to prevent the JPY depreciation might cap the upside of the EUR/JPY cross. 

 According to the four-hour chart, EUR/JPY resumes its upside stance as the cross holds above the 50- and 100-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds in bullish territory above 70. However, the overbought RSI condition indicates that further consolidation cannot be ruled out before positioning for any near-term EUR/JPY appreciation.

The first upside barrier for EUR/JPY will emerge near the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band at 164.70. Any follow-through buying above this level could pave the way to a high of March 20 at 165.35. The next hurdle is seen at the psychological level of 166.00. 

On the downside, the 164.00 round mark acts as an initial support level for the cross. The additional downside filter to watch is the 50-period EMA at 163.56, followed by the 100-period EMA at 163.30. A decisive break below the latter will see a drop to the lower limit of the Bollinger Band at 162.30. 

EUR/JPY four-hour chart

• EUR/JPY breaks above Tenkan-Sen, eyes 165.00 potential.
• Holding above 164.00 may lead to testing yearly highs.
• Bears aim below 164.00 for reversal; Tenkan-Sen, Kijun-Sen as supports.

The Euro posted solid gains against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Wednesday, amid an improvement in risk appetite and the dovish stance adopted by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) despite rising interest rates. At the time of writing, the EUR/JPY trades at 164.25, up 0.67%.

EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Technical outlook

Euro bulls re-entered the market, lifting the EUR/JPY pair above the Tenkan-Sen a 163.71, which opened the door to reclaim the 164.00 mark. That suggests that buyers are gathering steam, which would open the door to challenge the 165.00 mark. A breach of the latter will expose the year-to-date (YTD) high of 165.34.

On the flip side, sellers must drag prices below 164.00 to challenge the new Tenkan-Sen level at 163.71, the next support level. Once surpassed, traders could test the Senkou Span Aat 163.25, followed by the Kijun-Sen level at 162.78.

EUR/JPY Price Action – Daily Chart

• EUR/JPY gains ground as Japanese Yen struggles to maintain its strength.
• Japanese authorities could intervene in the markets to support the Yen.
• ECB’s Robert Holzmann would like to see more supportive data before initiating rate cuts in June.

EUR/JPY continues to advance for the second consecutive session, trading around 163.30 during the early European hours. Despite a modest uptick in the Japanese Yen (JPY) yesterday, it struggles to maintain its strength. Investors are cautious amid the possibility of Japanese authorities intervening in the markets to prevent a significant decline in the Yen.

This, coupled with a subdued risk sentiment, provides some support to the safe-haven JPY. However, the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) cautious stance on further policy tightening fails to inspire bullish sentiment or offer substantial momentum.

Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki reiterated his caution regarding excessive exchange-rate volatility and reaffirmed authorities' readiness to take appropriate action. His remarks provided some backing to the Japanese Yen.

European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Robert Holzmann stated in a Reuters interview on Wednesday, "I have no inherent objection to a rate cut in June, but I would like to see more supportive data before making a decision."

German inflation moderated slightly more than anticipated in March, reaching its lowest level in almost three years. The preliminary German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) increased by 0.6% month-on-month (MoM) in March, slightly below the forecasted 0.7% rise. The year-on-year rate of HICP climbed by 2.3%, falling short of the market consensus of 2.4%.

The softer inflation figures suggest that Germany edges closer to the European Central Bank's (ECB) target of 2%, leading to market expectations of a potential interest rate cut in the near future. Consequently, this exerts selling pressure on the Euro (EUR) and presents a headwind for the EUR/JPY cross. Investors are now awaiting the advanced Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices data for March on Wednesday for further insights.

• Indicators on the daily chart show a steady buying momentum.
• Bulls need to maintain control over the current support around the 20-day SMA to avoid additional losses.
• Hourly chart indicators show signs of recovery.

The EUR/JPY pair is currently oscillating around the 163.20 mark, showing a slight increase in Tuesday’s session. The persisting momentum suggests an upper hand for the bulls, but if the pair falls below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), there may be a likelihood for sellers to force a momentum shift.

On the daily chart, the EUR/JPY pair has a mildly positive outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) fluctuates in the positive territory, peaking at 65 last week before slipping to 52 in the most recent reading. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues to print flat red bars, indicating a slightly negative momentum.

EUR/JPY daily chart

Switching to the hourly chart, the sentiment also leans towards positivity. The RSI, which started the session from a low point in negative territory at 39, has since recovered strongly to the positive territory with the most recent reading at 61. Reinforcing this positive trend, the MACD histogram prints green bars.

EUR/JPY hourly chart

In summary, the EUR/JPY pair is demonstrating an overall upward bias amidst minor setbacks. Both the daily and hourly charts portray a positive sentiment, as indicated by the RSI and MACD values. Along with the pair standing above its 20,100 and 200-day SMA, the overall market inclination leans towards the bulls.

• EUR/JPY edges lower to 162.75 amid the fear of FX intervention from the Bank of Japan (BoJ). 
• The cross keeps the negative outlook below the key EMA; RSI indicator lies in bearish territory. 
• The first upside barrier will emerge at 163.15; the first downside target is located at 162.65. 

The EUR/JPY cross loses momentum near 162.75 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday. The growing speculation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will intervene in the foreign exchange market might support the Japanese Yen (JPY) in the near term. Early Tuesday, Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said that he will not rule out any steps to respond to disorderly moves and that he will monitor foreign exchange (FX) moves with a high sense of urgency. 

From a technical perspective, the bearish outlook of EUR/JPY remains intact as the cross is below the 50- and 100-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) on the four-hour chart. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) lies in bearish territory around 36.40, supporting the sellers for the time being. 

The first upside barrier for EUR/JPY will emerge near the 100-period EMA at 163.15. Further north, the next target is seen at the 50-period EMA at 163.32. A decisive break above the latter will expose the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band at 163.58. Any follow-through buying above this level would sustain its bullish move to a high of March 27 at 164.41. 

On the flip side, the lower limit of the Bollinger Band at 162.65 acts as an initial support level for the cross. The key contention level is located at the 162.00 mark, representing a low of March 19 and a psychological level. A breach below 162.00 will see a drop to a low of March 14 at 161.10.  

EUR/JPY four-hour chart

• Significant selling momentum is revealed in the daily chart as the RSI slips into negative zones while MACD signifies growing negative traction.
• In line with the daily chart, the hourly indicators show mounting selling pressure.
• The recent dip beneath the 20-day SMA may suggest a possible short-term bearish realignment.

The EUR/JPY pair is currently trading around 162.85, representing a decline of 0.30% during Monday's session. Bearish cues are intensifying as seen in the increase in selling momentum, which signals a possible shift from the preceding bullish trend.

On the daily chart for EUR/JPY, the most recent Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading fell near negative territory. This situation tends to indicate a growing selling momentum. Concurrently, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram showcases rising red bars, implying a surge in negative momentum.

EUR/JPY daily chart

Assessing the hourly chart, the EUR/JPY pair showcases similar bearish sentiments. The RSI dipped near the oversold territory demonstrating the sellers' dominance in the market over the recent hours. Adding to this, the hourly MACD histogram reinforces this sentiment, illustrating rising red bars indicating a tilt towards negative momentum.

EUR/JPY hourly chart

Scrutinizing the broader outlook, EUR/JPY portrays a blend of bullish and bearish signals. A bullish stance manifests through its standing above the 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA), revealing a positive trend for the pair in the long run. However, the cross has dipped just below the 20-day SMA today, inferring a potential bearish shift in the short term.

In summary, although the longer-term trends demonstrate a predominantly bullish stance for EUR/JPY, recent readings from both the daily and hourly charts suggest a possible shift towards a sellers' market which could fuel additional downward movements in case the buyers fail to step in.

• EUR/JPY lacks any firm intraday direction and oscillates in a narrow trading band on Monday.
• The technical setup warrants some caution before positioning for a further depreciating move.
• A convincing break below the 162.75-162.70 confluence will be seen as a fresh trigger for bears.

The EUR/JPY cross struggles to capitalize on Friday's modest bounce from sub-163.00 levels or a one-and-half-week low and kicks off the new week on a subdued note. Spot prices oscillate in a narrow band through the Asian session and currently trade around the 163.25 region, nearly unchanged for the day.

Speculations that Japanese authorities will intervene in the market to address any excessive falls in the domestic currency turn out to be a key factor behind the Japanese Yen's (JPY) relative outperformance. The shared currency, on the other hand, is undermined by rising bets for a June rate cut, bolstered by recent dovish remarks by European Central Bank (ECB) officials. This, in turn, is seen acting as a headwind for the EUR/JPY cross.

From a technical perspective, the recent pullback from the highest level since August 2008 stalled last week ahead of the 163.000 mark. This is closely followed by the 162.75-162.70 confluence – comprising the 100-day and the 200-period Simple Moving Averages (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the March rally. A convincing break below the latter will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and pave the way for deeper losses.

The EUR/JPY cross might then accelerate the slide towards the 162.20 region, or the 61.8% Fibo. level, before dropping below the 162.00 round-figure mark, towards testing the next relevant support near the 161.35-161.30 zone.

On the flip side, the immediate hurdle is pegged near the 163.75 area ahead of the 164.00 round figure. A sustained strength beyond will suggest that the corrective fall has run its course and lift the EUR/JPY cross beyond the 164.35 resistance, back towards reclaiming the 165.00 psychological mark. Some follow-through buying beyond the YTD peak, near the 165.25-165.30 region will then set the stage for the resumption of the uptrend witnessed since the beginning of this year.

EUR/JPY 4-hour chart

• The daily chart reveals slightly bullish momentum, with RSI at 52, signifying resilient buying traction.
• Indicators in the hourly chart denote a mild downward trend, which could hint at a potential shift.
• Buyers must successfully maintain the main SMAs to mitigate bearish threats and ensure bullish continuation.

The EUR/JPY pair is currently trading at 163.13, exhibiting minimal losses. Despite the declines, the broader momentum remains bullish, but this sentiment remains finely balanced and open to fluctuations.

On the daily chart, the EUR/JPY pair indicates signs of a relatively positive to neutral momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has maneuvered within the positive territory over the most recent sessions, with the latest reading positioned at 52. This reading suggests a slightly bullish momentum, yet potentially susceptible to changes in market sentiment. Meanwhile, the red bar on the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram suggests negative momentum, signaling that the sellers might be gearing up.

EUR/JPY daily chart

Shifting focus onto the hourly chart, fluctuations are more noticeable. The RSI values display a slight downward trend throughout the latest hours, reaching as low as 46. Alongside this, the consistently shrinking green bars of the MACD confirms the overall bearish momentum.

EUR/JPY hourly chart

In conclusion, while short-term indicators might show an inclination toward a sellers' market, it's important to note this is within a broader bullish context as seen on the daily chart. Buyers must step in and defend the 20-day SMA at 162.85 to leave the overall bullish trend intact.

• Even though daily chart indicators reveal weakening momentum, the overall trend remains positive.
• In the hourly chart, the RSI deep in the negative area implies sellers are in charge during the day's trading.
• To maintain momentum, the bulls need to defend the 20-day SMA.

In Thursday's session, the EUR/JPY pair is trading at around 163.40, experiencing a minor loss. The broader perspective leans in favor of the bulls, indicating buying strength that keeps the pair above its 20, 100, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). Despite this, there is evidence of mounting selling pressure on the daily chart.

On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) descended from nearing overbought conditions last week towards 54. The MACD histogram also indicates that buyer momentum might be waning, as inferred from the flat green bars. These market indicators suggest potential near-term volatility in the pair's direction.

EUR/JPY daily chart

Transitioning to the hourly chart, RSI readings convey a more negative sentiment. The latest value stands at 44, signaling sellers as dominant in the short-term movements. The MACD histogram, however, prints green bars which adds neutrality to the intraday outlook.

EUR/JPY hourly chart

In conclusion, despite the negative sentiment on the hourly chart, the daily and broader metrics suggest that bulls maintain control of the bigger picture. The main task fo the buyers is to defend the 20-day SMA at around 163.00 and as long as the pair remains above this level, the outlook will be positive.

• EUR/JPY trades on a softer note around 163.75 in Thursday’s early European session. 
• The verbal intervention from Japanese authorities provides some support to the JPY. 
• ECB’s Stoumaras said there is a growing consensus for a rate cut in June. 
• The German February Retail Sales data will be due later on Thursday. 

The EUR/JPY cross trades with a mild negative bias around 163.75 during the early European session on Thursday. The cross edges lower amid the fear of foreign exchange intervention from the Japanese authorities.  

On Thursday, Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yishimasa Hayashi said that he will not rule out any options against excessive foreign exchange moves and will closely watch it. This verbal intervention complied with top currency diplomat Masato Kanda statement that he will react to the disorderly FX moves. The fear of FX intervention from Japanese authorities might support the Japanese Yen (JPY) and limit the upside of the EUR/JPY cross in the near term. 

On the Euro front, the growing speculation that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut the interest rate in June acts as a headwind for the Euro (EUR) against the JPY. On Tuesday, ECB official Yannis Stoumaras said that there is a higher chance for a June rate cut, while Bank of Italy Governor Fabio Panetta said on Monday that the ECB is moving towards an interest rate cut as inflation is easing rapidly and approaching the 2% target. 

Looking ahead, traders will monitor German Retail Sales data, which is estimated to drop 0.8% YoY in February. Also, the German Unemployment Change and Italian Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released. On Friday, market players will turn their focus to the Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March. In the case of the stronger-than-expected data, this could lift the JPY against the EUR. 

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• Indicators on the daily chart signal a possible shift toward negative momentum.
• The hourly chart shows RSI and MACD somewhat recovering in negative territory.
• Bulls need to maintain the 20-day SMA securely to fend off further dips.

In Wednesday's session, EUR/JPY is trading with mild losses at 163.75. Despite uncertainties, the broader market sentiment appears to favor the buyers, given the pair's dominant position above its key Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) of 20,100 and 200 days. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicators signal an upcoming shift in momentum, hinting at increased strength in selling pressure.

On the daily chart indicators for the RSI remain in positive territory, with a downward trend which may signal a potential shift towards a negative trend. The MACD on the other hand, prints decreasing green bars, further reinforcing the weakened bullish momentum.

EUR/JPY daily chart

Regarding the hourly chart, the RSI values display a positive slope, signaling increased buying momentum. The lowest peak at 31 clearly shows that market sentiment has shifted to a bearish stance on Wednesday but in the meantime, indicators seem to be consolidating. Furthermore, the MACD) histogram's red bars confirm the presence of negative momentum.

EUR/JPY hourly chart

• EUR/JPY continues declining and has formed a bearish pattern called a Measured Move. 
• It is composed of three waves – wave C appears to be in mid development.
• The bearish 4-hour chart echoes weak technicals observed on the weekly chart.  

EUR/JPY is down over a third of a percent, trading in the 163.70s on Wednesday, on the back of a mixture of probable intervention by the Japanese authorities to strengthen the Japanese Yen (JPY) and more dovish commentary from rate-setters at the European Central Bank (ECB).  

The 4-hour chart is showing a bearish ABC Measured Move pattern forming which looks like it probably still has lower to go. 

Euro versus Japanese Yen: 4-hour chart

If wave C is the same length as wave A, which is often the case, the Measured Move could stretch down to a target situated at about 162.40, just below the 200-4hr Simple Moving Average (SMA). 

The pair has just completed a long red bearish Marubozu Japanese candlestick pattern which adds a further bearish tone to the chart. Even if there is a pullback after the sell-off it will probably only go as high as the midpoint of the Marubozu candle at 163.90 before probably continuing lower. 

The short-term trend remains unclear but a break below the lows of wave A at 163.32 would provide confirmation shifting the odds in favor of a downtrend and a continuation of wave C. 

The acute bearish divergence with the Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) on the Weekly chart as reported in a previous article, is further evidence supporting more downside.

• EUR/JPY gains ground as a possibility of market intervention by Japanese authorities.
• Japan’s Suzuki does not rule out responding to disorderly FX movements.
• The Euro may encounter pressure on the expectation of the ECB’s rate cut in June.

EUR/JPY moves back and forth with a negative tone as the Japanese Yen (JPY) is under selling pressure following the dovish tone of the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The EUR/JPY cross recovers intraday losses and trades around 164.10 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday.

However, the Japanese Yen has gained some ground after the comments made by the Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki. Suzuki stated that he closely monitors foreign exchange (FX) movements with a high sense of urgency and is not ruling out any steps, including "decisive steps," to respond to disorderly FX movements. Additionally, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda mentioned on Wednesday that household sentiment is improving due to expectations of wage hikes.

The Euro may encounter downward pressure amid increasing speculation for a rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) in June. ECB policymaker Madis Muller stated on Tuesday that the central bank is nearing a point where rate cuts could commence. Additionally, ECB official Yannis Stoumaras remarked that there is consensus for a rate cut in June.

Traders will likely monitor speeches from ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane and ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone on Wednesday, in addition to the European Commission’s Business Climate and Consumer Confidence data for March.

• EUR/JPY near 164.00, undecided post-Tenkan-sen rebound.
• Buyers claiming 164.82 and the pair may aim for 165.00.
• Falling below 164.00 could lead to 163.21, then 162.78 Kijun-Sen.

The EUR/JPY is virtually unchanged during the North American session, after hitting a two day high of 164.40, though sellers dragged the exchange rate near the Tuesday open. Hence, the cross pair trades at 164.09, almost flat.

EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Technical outlook

After falling from the year-to-date (YTD) high of 165.33, the EUR/JPY found support at around the Tenkan-sen level at 163.12 on Monday, sponsoring a leg-up toward the 164.00 area. Further upside is seen if traders clear the March 22 high of 164.82, ahead of the 165.00 figure.

On the flip side, if the pair extends its losses below 16400, look for a fall to the Tenkan-Sen at 163.21, followed by the 163.00 mark. A breach of the latter will exacerbate a dip to the Kijun-Sen at 162.78.

EUR/JPY Price Action – Daily Chart

• EUR/JPY posts modest gains around 164.10 in Tuesday’s early European session. 
• Some verbal intervention from Japanese authorities lifts the Japanese Yen. 
• ECB’s Panetta said the inflation trend was making a rate cut possible. 

The EUR/JPY cross trades with a mild bullish bias above the 164.00 mark during the early European session on Tuesday. The intervention warning from the Japanese authorities on Monday provides some support to the Japanese Yen (JPY) and might cap the cross’s upside in the near term. Traders will closely monitor the Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March, due on Friday. At press time, the cross is trading at 164.10, gaining 0.01% for the day. 

The Japanese Yen has dropped despite the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) raising interest rates last week, marking the first hike since 2007. However, Japan's Vice Minister of Finance for International Affairs, Masato Kanda made some verbal intervention on Monday, saying that he will take appropriate steps to respond to the excessive weakness of the Japanese Yen without excluding any measures. This, in turn, lifts the JPY and acts as a headwind for the EUR/JPY cross. 

On the other hand, traders increased their bets on rate cut expectations from the European Central Bank (ECB) after the Swiss National Bank (SNB) became the first major central bank to lower borrowing costs last week. The ECB policymaker Fabio Panetta stated on Monday that the central bank is moving towards an interest rate cut as inflation is falling rapidly and approaching the bank's 2% target. Meanwhile, ECB chief economist Philip Lane said that the ECB is more confident that wage growth is slowing back toward more normal levels, potentially opening the door to rate cuts. 

The German Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey for April is due on Tuesday, along with the ECB's Lane speech. Traders will watch the German February Retail Sales on Thursday. On Friday, the Japanese Tokyo CPI inflation data for March will be in the spotlight.